While the U.S. will likely vote against recognizing Palestinian statehood at the U.N. in September, both Palestinians and Israelis are making a "no" vote more difficult for the Obama administration.
The Palestinians have just concluded a historic working group which has crafted strategies for how to mold the upcoming U.N. bid for statehood at both the Security Council and the General Assembly. Most significant is that the Palestinian Authority is planning to include language in its U.N. bid which affirms Obama's articulation on borders and negotiations with Israel. Regarding the document this working group has produced, Haaaretz reports:
This version will make it difficult for the United States and the Marshall Islands, and even for Israel, to explain their votes against the proposal. Instead of recognizing Palestine within the 1967 borders, it will state that the permanent borders will be determined in negotiations with Israel based on the borders of June 4, 1967.
This articulation is precisely what the Obama administration demands of both the Palestinians and the Israelis regarding the commencement of negotiations, and all signs point toward the PA placing Obama's language into the heart of its U.N. bid for statehood.
The document produced by the Palestinians also lays out contingency plans for what they would pursue if, after being recognized by the U.N., negotiations break down with Israel such that diplomatic efforts to attain Palestinian independence cannot be realized.
If the strategy of a diplomatic struggle for Palestinian independence − including sanctions, turning to the International Criminal Court and nonviolent resistance as in Egypt and Tunisia − does not change the situation, the group recommends switching to what the document calls Plan B: dismantling the Palestinian Authority and restoring responsibility for the West Bank’s inhabitants to Israel. The authors are not ignoring the price their public would pay for that, but wonder what honorable option would remain.
If it turns out that this option is unattainable, the authors recommend working toward a model of a binational state or democratic state without distinction between Israel and Palestinian citizens. Another possibility is a confederation between Jordan and the Palestinian state.
While the Palestinians are doing everything they can to attract EU countries and the United States to vote for Palestinian statehood at the U.N., the same cannot be said (unfortunately) for Israel.
A report today from Israel shows that settlement construction in the West Bank is up "a whopping 660%" in 2011, with approximately 550 new homes under construction. And that percentage is likely to increase in the next few years, with recent government approval of thousands of new units in several areas in the territories.
In addition, the Knesset has slammed Israel's preparations for the upcoming Palestinian U.N. bid.
Based on discussions with MKs and others who have read the report, its authors warned that a successful Palestinian bid for UN recognition as an independent state UN will produce "a long-term anti-Israel process" that will further Palestinian interests and restrict Israel's ability to maneuver.
The report argued that had Israel offered "a political option" that would have enabled the U.S. administration to draft an agreed formula for resuming Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, it might have been possible to neutralize the Palestinian move.
As the U.N. vote quickly approaches, both Palestinians and Israelis are making it more difficult for Western nations (in particular) to vote against championing a recognition of Palestinian statehood.
The status quo cannot be maintained. This is my opinion. But it is also the opinion of the Palestinians' strategy document which will likely be presented to the U.N.
Whether the document will move any opinions in the White House is unlikely. But the document will make a U.S. "no" vote even more difficult to swallow, regardless.