I picked these two races to profile for two reasons. One, I'm from the Central Coast and I have become pretty well versed in the political terrain here. Two, it's very seldom that we see two potentially competitive seats right next to each other. It also is an opportunity to discuss the new primary system.
CA-24 will be one of the more contested races next year. The top two primary will be an interesting test here for Abel Maldonado, who believes the top two will give him a good chances of making the general election. But he still has a challenger from the right in Chris Mitchum and still has to siphon off moderates from Lois Capps, which is just his task for the primary. That is exactly the sort of situation Capps wants, as she can build up votes early in the season. Let's look at maps.
Blue = Capps
Red = Mitchum
Purple = Maldonado
This is an overall view of what I think the map for the primary will look like. Capps cleans up in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo proper, while Mitchum gets up rural areas and Maldonado carries Santa Maria and some scattering areas. I can see Mitchum winning the stronger Republican precincts, while Maldonado wins some of the swingier ones that are scattered about. Let's get a closer look at Santa Barbara.
Capps would do very well in the city, as it's heavily Democratic. Mitchum would probably win the exclusive Hope Ranch just based on his own lineage and Maldonado would get votes in moderate voting areas of the city. By my model, the precincts that will likely vote for Mitchum add up to more votes than the ones that might vote for Maldonado. Maldonado would have to keep Capps numbers down on Santa Barbara's East and Westside neighborhoods, which are heavily Hispanic and Democratic and make up a large share of votes. He's got to also do reasonably well in the neighborhood around Oak Park, plus the neighborhoods of Mission Canyon, Los Positas and Upper State. Also worth watching is the other exclusive sections, Montecito and the Riviera, which could go to Mitchum based on the same reasons I mentioned for Hope Ranch.
CA-26 is currently more vague, as the field has yet to really take shape. Most Republicans are waiting to see what Elton Gallegly will do, but I imagine he opts for retirement in this Democratic leaning seat. Two Democrats have declared, Moorpark City Councilman David Pollock and tennis player David Cruz Thayne of Westlake Village. On the Republican side Supervisor Linda Parks and State Senator Tony Strickland might get in if Gallegly does not run. A primary featuring Strickland and Parks would become very heated, as they have somewhat of a feud, Parks endorsed a Democrat (on evironmental issues) over Strickland in 2008 and Strickland's wife ran against Parks for Supervisor last year, only to lose by over twenty points. All that aside, what would the map in the primary look like? Let's take a look.
Blue = Democrat (whoever emerges as the front runner)
Red = Strickland
Purple = Parks
This map is how things should look for the primary (some precincts over lap a little, but I got as close as I could with the app). This time, the conservative wouldn't edge out the moderate. Parks is reasonably popular in Thousand Oaks, so she would do well there, leaving Camarillo as the only municipality for Strickland to dominate (save for the small portion of Simi Valley). Of course, this all depends on exactly how well Parks does with moderates, particularly left leaning ones and many of them may be more interested in who gets to the top two for the Democrats. In short, the new system forces candidates to run the general earlier than they previously did. As to Democratic strength, the Ojai Valley that encompasses Ojai, Oak View and Mira Monte, Meiners Oaks provides a good portion to Democratic numbers, which is where Parks needs to perform well with moderates. The next place where she needs to pull moderates is Ventura proper, which leans blue, but has purple scattered about. Oxnard is solidly blue, with only a couple of precincts leaning very Republican, the heaviest being Oxnard Beach. Port Hueneme is a naval installation, but votes more Democratic that many other defense installations do. All in all, this race is also worth watching very early on, if it shapes up like this. This will be a series and up next, I'll be discussing potential same party match-ups as the result of the new system.