GOP Rep. Justin Amash
John Boehner, as we well know, has a serious problem on his hands. While most of his caucus is generally content to loot the country on behalf of the oligarchs they serve, there's a hardcore contigent of true dystopians for whom mere pillage is not enough. These wreckers, many of whom were elected to Congress just last year on the strength of their credentials as "tea partiers," will not rest until all of America resembles the set from
Mad Max. The rank-and-file looters want to shovel as much of the public treasury as possible toward big business while lowering taxes on the very wealthiest. It's a simple plan. But the real problem children want to eliminate things even many
Republicans like, and John Boehner isn't stupid enough to let them succeed.
But boy will they try. There have been a number of votes this year on budgetary matters where the dystopians have turned their petulance into action, often causing Boehner some serious headaches by aggressively departing from the party line. I've pulled together nine roll calls which I think showcase this split best. Let me walk you through them.
Repeatedly this year, Congress has passed temporary government funding measures (often known as "continuing resolutions," or just "CRs") because Democrats and Republicans predictably have a very hard time reaching agreement on long-term solutions. Because the GOP has been willing to let the government shut down, and because Congressional Democrats seem to want to avoid this at all costs, Republicans have succeeded in demanding a ransom every time a stopgap bill is necessary. That ransom has come in the form of budget cuts—which are often insufficiently satisfactory to the dystopian wing of the party.
The first such CR actually passed overwhelmingly back on Feb. 1, with a majority of Democrats voting in favor and only six GOP dissents. But that micro-caucus—those willing to vote against the overwhelming majority of their own party—gives you a sense who of the biggest troublemakers are going to be. Two weeks later, though, the dystopians got a lot grumpier, as 54 Republicans refused to get on board with the next CR. But the bill still passed by a wide margin, thanks to considerable Democratic support.
Boehner looked like he didn't have the stomach to head off a full-scale rebellion just then, so three weeks after that, on April 7, he brought forth a bill that he knew would please his caucus, even though the Senate told him it was dead on arrival and President Obama said he'd veto it. Did Boehner think this sop was going to please the wreckers? Well, it worked, at least in the very, very short term, since the bill passed with just six nays from his own party. (Four names were the same as from the first go-round: Justin Amash, Michele Bachmann, Steve King, and Ron Paul.)
But as I say, the legislation was a no-go, and two days later, Boehner was forced to bring a compromise bill to the House floor. This time, the insurgency was perhaps less bad than he feared, with only 28 members of his party spurning him. Boehner could afford not to worry, though, because the CR passed with overwhelming Republican and Democratic support.
It was a busy April, though, and things were going to get worse for Boehner, not better. Tired of bi-weekly fights over these stopgap spending measures, the Obama administration pushed for a budget agreement that would last until the end of the fiscal year (Sept. 30). A deal was eventually reached—an unhappy one for Democrats, who mostly voted against it, but also a bitter disappointment to the teanuts who were furious that spending levels weren't cut even further. Boehner had the biggest revolt on his hands to date, as 59 Republicans balked. Still, the compromise passed.
The very next day saw the grandest cock-up of all. The House ran through a series of votes on budget resolutions, including the now-infamous Ryan plan which would have, among other things, eliminated Medicare. But while it's now been overshadowed by Ryan's Curse, April 15 also saw another roll call on an alternative budget resolution that made Paul Ryan's ideas look like he'd cribbed them straight from Marx. GOP leadership wanted this plan, known as the Republican Study Committee budget, to fail, pure and simple—it was far too harsh, even for them—and they were certain Democrats would vote against it en masse.
But Steny Hoyer had eaten a good breakfast that morning, and he instructed his fellow Democrats to simply vote "present" once it came to the floor. That meant the bill was very much in danger of passing, and frantic Republican leaders had to whip their own caucus to vote against the legislation while the vote was still open. It was utter chaos, and the GOP very nearly got punked. While a handful of Democrats did wind up voting "no" (perhaps not wanting to be seen as playing games), the Republicans had no way to know if any would. So they succeeded in getting the absolute minimum number of nays necessary—120—to ensure it would tank. That still meant 119 votes for Lord Humungus, and a truly scary day for John Boehner.
The RSC budget can't properly be described as a rebellion, since the majority of Republicans actually supported it (before the furious whipping began). But it did represent the starkest example of Boehner losing control of his caucus to date. The agony certainly hasn't ended, though. In the middle of the summer, Boehner once again had to whip votes in favor of his preferred bill to raise the debt ceiling. Like the April 7 CR, Boehner knew this bill was automatically kaput in the Senate, which in theory ought to have made it easy for him to pass.
But real anger began to boil over this time. This legislation, after all, was not just about spending levels but about how much debt the government can issue—something which tickles the tea partiers at an even deeper part of their lizard brains than mere dollars and cents. Boehner still promised a vote on on July 28, but as the day wore on, failure seemed more and more likely. And one thing Boehner absolutely could not do was pass a bill that relied on majority Democratic support, since that would have been his last act as Speaker of the House. So he had to rally his party to his side, because Democrats were united in opposition to his plans. But the expected defections were too many, and in a very embarrassing climb down, pulled the bill from a vote.
The next day, though, Boehner's efforts at suasion finally seemed to come together and he sent his debt ceiling bill to the floor. It passed, by the skin of its teeth. All Democrats voted against, as did 22 Republicans, for a 218-210 final tally—about as tight as they come. Luckily for Boehner, Democrats ultimately caved on his debt ceiling demands, and when the final compromise bill came up for a vote on Aug. 1, Democrats split right down the middle, with 95 in favor and 95 against. That assist allowed Boehner to shrug off another huge mass of defectors, 66 in all. Apart from the special case of the RSC budget, that constitued the biggest crowd of Republicans opposing Boehner to date.
Regrettably (for the nation), we're now back to stopgap spending bills—as I noted above, the fiscal year closes out at the end of September, so the budget passed in April is just about up. And things are still awkward for Boehner. As he did in early April, and as he did with his initial debt ceiling bill, he keeps putting forth legislation that the Senate is guaranteed to reject. Even then, he's still managed to arouse the ire of a chunk of his caucus. The most recent CR, passed on Sept. 23, saw 24 Republican dissenters, which sounds small, but as with Boehner's first debt ceiling bill, Democratic opposition has been high, giving him little margin for error; the final vote this time was a still-hairy 219-203.
It's not clear why he bothered, though. As predicted, Senate Democrats ignored the bill that Boehner had just struggle to past. Instead, Democrats and Republicans wound up reaching a separate agreement on a different CR, which the Senate voted overwhelmingly in favor of last Monday. The House had already recessed, so Boehner staged a "pro-forma" session in which the lower chamber agreed to the Senate bill by unanimous consent on Thursday. While a lone rogue dystopian could have derailed the whole deal (as my colleague David Waldman explained here), that didn't happen. So perhaps Boehner simply staged a kabuki vote on the 23rd to buy himself time until the planned recess, knowing that even the craziest members of his caucus would be reluctant to withold consent, since it would have meant dragging the entire House back from recess and leaving the government inches from shutdown.
But that's not a trick you can use often. And the trick also worked because there appears to be a deal in hand for a longer-term CR that would carry the government through Nov. 18. The House is expected to vote on (and pass) this legislation on Tuesday, but once again, Boehner will be relying on Democrats to carry him over the hump.
And that has to be keeping John Boehner up at night, because one day, his luck might just run out. He'll have a combination of too many defections plus firm Democratic resolve and he simply won't be able to pass a necessary bill. He may be tempted to forge a coalition made up mostly of Democrats and a few Republicans, but as I say, if he goes that route, he'll very quickly be spending his days on the golf course, since the majority of his caucus would vote him out of a job. Since a life on the links doesn't appear to be in Boehner's dreams, he'll keep banging his head against the wall—a wall built by the dystopian tea party wreckers, and a wall which may one day come crashing down on John Boehner's head.
As a coda, I'm sure you're wondering who these problem children are. I've already mentioned the two worst: Justin Amash of Michigan's 3rd Congressional District and Steve King of Iowa's 5th (seeking reelection in the new 4th). They've voted against Boehner nine out of nine times, the only two to do so. Here are the top dozen, ranked by how often on this series of legislation they opposed GOP leadership:
Justin Amash 9
Steve King 9
Michele Bachmann 8
Mick Mulvaney 8
Connie Mack 7
Jeffrey Duncan 7
Jim Jordan 7
Joe Walsh 7
Joe Wilson 7
Ron Paul 7
Tim Huelskamp 7
Tom Graves 7
The rest of the list is below the fold. Also, here is a Google Docs spreadsheet showing who voted no on what.
Jason Chaffetz 6
Paul Broun 6
Steve Southerland 6
Timothy V. Johnson 6
Trey Gowdy 6
Andy Harris 5
Jeff Flake 5
Joe L. Barton 5
Phil Gingrey 5
Raul Labrador 5
Steve Pearce 5
Ted Poe 5
Tom McClintock 5
Trent Franks 5
Bill Huizenga 4
Billy Long 4
David Schweikert 4
Dennis Ross 4
Doug Lamborn 4
John Fleming 4
Louie Gohmert 4
Marlin Stutzman 4
Scott Garrett 4
Scott Rigell 4
Steven J. Chabot 4
Tim Scott 4
Allen West 3
Ben Quayle 3
Chip Cravaack 3
Cliff Stearns 3
Dan Burton 3
Denny Rehberg 3
Jack Kingston 3
Jean Schmidt 3
Jeff Landry 3
Lynn Westmoreland 3
Mike Pence 3
Morgan Griffith 3
Ralph M. Hall 3
Randy Neugebauer 3
Roscoe G. Bartlett 3
Scott DesJarlais 3
Scott Tipton 3
Thaddeus McCotter 3
Todd Akin 3
Walter B. Jones 3
Ann Marie Buerkle 2
Austin Scott 2
Bill Posey 2
Chuck Fleischmann 2
Cynthia M. Lummis 2
Dean Heller 2
Duncan D. Hunter 2
J. Randy Forbes 2
John Campbell 2
John J. Duncan Jr. 2
John Sullivan 2
Kevin Yoder 2
Marsha Blackburn 2
Mo Brooks 2
Patrick T. McHenry 2
Randy Hultgren 2
Rob Bishop 2
Steve Austria 2
Steve Scalise 2
Steven Palazzo 2
Tim Walberg 2
Todd Rokita 2
Tom Latham 2
Vicky Hartzler 2
Adrian Smith 1
Alan Nunnelee 1
Bill Cassidy 1
Bill Flores 1
Candice S. Miller 1
Christopher H. Smith 1
Cory Gardner 1
Dan Benishek 1
Dana Rohrabacher 1
Darrell Issa 1
Devin Nunes 1
Donald Manzullo 1
Ed Royce 1
Elton Gallegly 1
Francisco Canseco 1
Frank Guinta 1
Gary G. Miller 1
Geoff Davis 1
Gregg Harper 1
Howard Coble 1
James Lankford 1
Jeb Hensarling 1
Jeff Miller 1
Jeffrey Denham 1
Joe Pitts 1
John Carter 1
John Culberson 1
John Kline 1
John L. Mica 1
John Shimkus 1
K. Michael Conaway 1
Kay Granger 1
Ken Calvert 1
Kenny Marchant 1
Kevin Brady 1
Lamar Smith 1
Lee Terry 1
Leonard Lance 1
Martha Roby 1
Michael C. Burgess 1
Michael McCaul 1
Michael R. Turner 1
Mike Coffman 1
Mike Kelly 1
Mike Pompeo 1
Paul Gosar 1
Pete Olson 1
Pete Sessions 1
Phil Roe 1
Reid Ribble 1
Rob Woodall 1
Robert E. Latta 1
Robert Hurt 1
Robert W. Goodlatte 1
Sam Johnson 1
Sandra Adams 1
Spencer Bachus 1
Sue Myrick 1
Tom Cole 1
Tom Price 1
Virginia Foxx 1
Wally Herger 1
William M. Thornberry 1