What should have been a slam-dunk process has turned into yet another minority vs. white food fight full of recrimination, ugly innuendo, and suggestions of an unholy alliance between black Democrats and white Republicans in the legislature to block Gov. Martin O'Malley's planned 7-1 congressional redistricting map.
Among Rep. Donna Edwards's "concerns" (and I put that in quotation marks because it's pretty clear that she's decided it's more fun to be a self-serving opportunist than it was to be a DKE folk hero for her reported willingness to push the Republicans by absorbing conservative precincts) is that Montgomery County, an ultra-diverse, suburban, wealthy, and sapphire-blue county in the D.C. suburbs, will have no minority representation because the map fails to either draw her into the county or add a third minority-majority seat.
Well, Congresswoman, if that's actually your concern and isn't just a facade for your (suddenly less irrational) paranoia over facing a possible primary challenge, consider it alleviated.
You've seen this basic format before. But this isn't a simple revision of a previous map; I started from scratch on this sucker. Again observe my restlessness regarding the standard color scheme; sorry, sorry.
MD-01 (blue): Rep. Andy Harris (R) - 37.8% Obama, 60.3% McCain
This district is nominally represented by Harris, but he's been drawn outside the lines (more on that in a bit). He'd probably seek reelection here, but it almost makes more sense for Rep. Roscoe Bartlett to seek the Republican nomination here, even though he lives outside the district as well. It's largely rural, with a portion of Baltimore suburbs. The power base for the district is the Eastern Shore, but suburbanites in Carroll, Baltimore, and Harford counties and westerners in Frederick, Washington, Allegany, and Garrett counties make up a very significant portion of the electorate as well (they'd probably account for at least half of Republican primary voters). Due to its size and differing regional politics, it would be a pain in the ass to campaign in, but it kinda makes sense from a COI standpoint.
MD-02 (green): Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D) - 57.5% Obama, 40.4% McCain
Ruppersberger is pretty quiet on the Hill, and bless his heart, he's not one to whine or harbor acrimonious feelings, either. This district is fairly similar to the one in the current proposal, though by comparison, it doesn't include much of eastern Baltimore County, takes in more of Harford County and Baltimore City, and stretches out to Columbia at its western extremity. It's a disgusting, gerrymandered mess, but it ends up looking pretty good for Ruppersberger, and I think he would take it without complaint.
MD-03 (purple): Rep. John Sarbanes (D) - 56.4% Obama, 41.4% McCain
Unfortunately, one Democrat has to bear the brunt of Edwards and her allies' griping over Montgomery County's representation, and the result is that I've nixed the governor's plan to send Sarbanes into the Democrat-rich county. The closest the Towson congressman gets to D.C. is South Laurel, which lies outside the Beltway and beyond the Metrorail system (the Laurel area straddles Howard, Anne Arundel, and Prince George's counties, with North Laurel and small parts of Laurel lying in Howard County, small parts of Laurel in Anne Arundel County, and most of Laurel as well as South Laurel and parts of West Laurel in Prince George's County). Unfortunately, Sarbanes's district isn't quite as heavily Democratic as it could be due to this parochial bullshit, but still: is a Republican really going to pick up a district then-Sen. Barack Obama won in 2008 by 15 points and is trending Democratic? I doubt it.
MD-07 (orange): Rep. Elijah Cummings (D) - 74.5% Obama, 24.2% McCain [53.7% black-majority VAP]
Yeah, I'm skipping around a bit to stay in the Baltimore area. Cummings, who has thankfully refrained from publicly moaning about the map (and is maybe a better sport than we previously gave him credit for?), gets a decent district here, with a big chunk of Baltimore City and some not-too-conservative parts of western and northern Baltimore County. He might face some trouble if the comically dedicated racists of Carroll County clone themselves and all register as Democrats to beat him in the primary, but short of that, he should be just fine even with a district that extends as far north as Westminster and as far west as the Carroll County portion of Mount Airy. The best part? Andy Harris now lives in this district.
MD-04 (red): Rep. Donna Edwards (R D) - 78.7% Obama, 20.3% McCain [53% black-majority VAP]
Will Edwards be happy with this district? Who knows. It includes parts of the Baltimore metropolitan area, namely some suburbs of Annapolis, similar to the O'Malley proposal. Most daringly, it actually ventures halfway across the Bay Bridge to snare Kent Island and its ferociously conservative Census-designated communities, which are often considered Annapolis 'burbs but are located within Queen Anne's County, part of the traditionally defined Eastern Shore. It also includes a slice of eastern Montgomery County, grabbing Takoma Park and most of Silver Spring. It could be considerably blacker, but that would probably entail fobbing off Arnold, Cape St. Claire, and Kent Island onto other districts, likely sacrificing the minority-majority status of at least one in the process. Whatever makes Edwards happy, I guess.
MD-05 (yellow): Rep. Steny Hoyer (D) - 66.7% Obama, 32.1% McCain [49% white-plurality VAP]
The dean of Maryland's House delegation gets the district he wants, with his base in Southern Maryland, an arm up into the Beltway to take in College Park and other diverse suburbs in Prince George's County, and the blue gem of Annapolis amidst reddish Anne Arundel County. Hoyer has nothing to dislike here. This is a black opportunity (36.1% total, 35.2% VAP) district, though, and Hoyer's successor will more than likely be black; I expect black Democrats would outvote white Democrats in the primary, especially after Hoyer retires.
MD-08 (cornflower blue): Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D) - 64.5% Obama, 33.8% McCain [49.6% white-plurality VAP]
The minority population in Montgomery County is booming, and I'll concede it's reasonable to expect a minority-majority district to be drawn there. This arrangement doesn't endanger Van Hollen in the immediate term, but as the nonwhite population of the district swells and soon begins to outnumber white Democrats in the primary, it should provide an opportunity for a Democrats of another race to be elected here. The minority groups here are very much a coalition, but I endeavored particularly to keep Asians together. They make up 12.8% of the district's total population (12.4% VAP) and would be a critical voting bloc in a competitive primary, fulfilling the desires of that relatively well-heeled and organized community. This district could be more Democratic and minority-friendly, but the parts of eastern Anne Arundel County that it soaks up are extremely white and conservative. Hoyer could take them, but it would require some rearrangement and sacrifice MD-05's status as a black opportunity district.
MD-06 (magenta): Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R) - 58.5% Obama, 39.9% McCain
This should be good enough to force Bartlett into retirement or guarantee his defeat in a general election. Its share of Montgomery County is predominantly white, and therefore slightly less Democratic than the portions in MD-08, but that probably works to a Frederick County Democrat's advantage. Robert J. Garagiola, a Democratic state senator from Germantown, lives outside of the district but could credibly run here as well. It should be solid for any Democrat, though one with a bit of rural appeal while being progressive enough to enjoy base turnout in yuppie bastions like Bethesda, Olney, and Potomac would have the smoothest ride here.
Thoughts, and preferably not complaints about how Annapolis should have gone for an 8-0?