The Republican presidential field is a huge problem for the Republican Party.
Mitt Romney, the "front runner", is a serial flip-flopper who most conservative activist voters (the overwhelming majority of Republican primary voters) believe they can't trust. Hence, Romney has failed to clear 30% in any recent national poll, and is generally mired in the 20-25% range.
Rick Perry, with money and right-wing fervor, had been the hope of many on the establishment right, like Fred Thompson was in 2008. Instead, he actually turned out to be like Fred Thompson in 2008, a huge disappointment: Perry is a terrible debater, whose positions on Social Security (it's unconstitutional) make him unelectable in a general election.
Things have gotten so bad that Hermain Cain, who is even more unelectable than Perry, has surged to the top of the opinion polls. The rest of the field is utterly weak, composed of tea party crazies (Bachman, Santorum), washed-up has beens (Gingrich), unelectable libertarians (Paul, Gary Johnson), and Jon Huntsman, who would have had an excellent chance at the Republican nomination in 1960, but is more than a bit too moderate for today's Republicans.
So What's going to happen?
The conventional wisdom, of course, is that the nominee will be Romney. I beg to differ: his conservative credentials are so weak, his flip-flopping inepitude so obvious, that he is simply unacceptable to the vast majority of Republicans. But neither Perry, Cain, nor anyone else is a good candidate in the general election. So it will either be a weak Romney or an unelectable right-wing candidate? As a President Obama supporter, I sure hope so!
But there are other options.
There are unassailable conservatives, who, while not without their faults and vulnerabilities, are both popular with conservatives and electable in a general election: Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush.
Ignoring the argument that's it's too late to get in (which I address below) let's look at these two as candidates.
1. Mike Huckabee- Mike Huckabee is a well-known former governor with a popular Fox news talk show. He is clearly conservative, with some positions that might make a general election win difficult. But he comes across as "folksy", and not as extreme as Rick Perry, and of course is a better debater. He almost ran, and probably would have except for the Obama poll boomlet caused by the death of Osama Bin Laden in May, which likely caused him to reconsider a run on the assumption that President Obama would be too difficult to beat. He would be a forminable fundraiser and a significant challenge for the President, unless of course the economy gets much better in the next year (which could happen), in which case President Obama would likely have an easy victory against whoever the Republicans put up.
2. Jeb Bush- In many ways, Jeb Bush would be the perfect Republican presidential candidate. The popular two-term former governor of a swing-state (Florida), he is popular with the establishment right, and many tea party activists as well. While clearly conservative, he has tried to broaden the Republican coalition at least a bit, and is reasonably popular among Florida's large Latino population. He has taken positions that are less extreme than some on the farthest right, but which would make him more electable in the general: he has opposed at least the worsts aspects of Arizona's deplorable immigration law, and has continually refused to enter into the crazy and racist world of "birtherism". He would also be an effective fundraiser. Of course, he faces one challenge not faced by any other potential Republican candidate: his brother was the most inept, incompetent, extreme and unsuccessful president in American history. America still has "Bush Fatigue", and that could play into Jeb's decision to stay out of the 2012 race, at least so far. But he would be a strong general election candidate.
I still believe that one of these two candidates will join the race for the 2012 White House, and whoever does will probably win the Republican nomination.
But isn't it too late to get in? In 1996, maybe, but not now. An internet web donation site can set up in hours. A popular conservative candidate without the weaknesses of Perry or Cain would be an instant hit with hundreds of thousands of GOP voters. Millions in donations could be raked in during the first week alone.
But the New Hampshire filing deadline has passed? Huh? Have you all heard of a "write-in" candidacy? I know many Republicans are ignorant of history, science and simple facts, but most are literate enough to spell J-E-B- B-U-S-H or M-I-K-E H-U-C-K-A-B-E-E (or is it Huckabe? Okay that might be a problem!). It is hardly too late to get the ball rolling. And once it's rolling, the GOP nomination could be up for the taking.
So don't be surprised if the next GOP nominee is not one of the candidates we have all come to know and laugh about. President Obama better be ready with a "Plan B" if Bush or Huckabee decides to enter the fray.
Your thoughts and comments are appreciated!