If Republicans aren't able to get a two-thirds majority for their 12-4 redistricting scheme in Ohio, the measure can be annuled by a referendum, after which a court will then draw the new map.
The following is an attempt to construct a viable map that a court might favour, having some regard to the existing districts but more regard to compactness, county lines and community links.
I'm writing this in north east Scotland and have never been further west in my life than Snæfellsness, so I can't with confidence define where the important community divisions lie. I've therefore decided to use quantifiable data as my starting point, namely Combined Statistical Areas (CSAs) and Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). See here for my dataset
Using these as my basic building blocks, I've come up with a map that creates six safe Democratic seats, five safe Republican seats and another five seats that could plausibly be won by either party.
Cincinnati-Middletown-Wilmington CSA
This is the area centred on Cinncinnati and includes six counties in south-west Ohio plus three counties of Indiana and seven counties of Kentucky. The Ohio parts of this make up the majority of the population and their 1,667,255 inhabitants are entitled to slightly more than two congressional districts.
OH-1 (Blue)
Deviation: +55
Counties: (in order of population) Hamilton (part), Butler (part)
Obama %: 58.5
McCain %: 40.4
Democratic %: 55.2
Republican %: 44.8
Racial groups above 5% W 66.3 B 27.2
This district comprises the entirety of Cincinnati, black suburbs and some of the less red white-majority areas in the north of Hamilton County and, from Butler County, the cities of Hamilton and Fairfield.
I decided to make this as urban a seat as possible. If a court instead tried to make it as Cincinnati-centric as possible, the seat would likely move several points redder.
OH-2 (Green)
Deviation: +36
Counties: Warren, Clermont, Hamilton (part), Butler (part), Brown, Highland, Clinton, Adams (part)
Obama %: 33.5
McCain %: 65.2
Democratic %: 35.4
Republican %: 64.6
Racial groups above 5%: W 92.4
This district stretches from the suburbs of Cincinnati through the eastern portions of the CSA, then adds Highland County plus a small portion of Adams County. This is the safest Republican seat and even Jean Schmidt couldn't lose this seat.
Dayton-Springfield-Greenville CSA
OH-8 (Periwinkle)
Deviation: +33
Counties: Butler (part), Clark, Hamilton (part), Miami (part), Darke, Shelby, Logan, Preble, Champaign
Obama %: 36.2
McCain %: 62.1
Democratic %: 39.6
Republican %: 60.4
Racial groups above 5%:
This seat involves elements of the Cincinnati and Dayton CSAs, as well as Shelby and Logan counties, which are part of neither, but the Dayton parts of this are greatest so I've put it under this heading.
The district begins in the south with western suburbs of Cincinnati and the lion's share of Butler County, then curves around Dayton through thinly-populated heavily Republican counties to get to Springfield. I've numbered the seat as the successor to Boehner's current one, but well over half of it is new to him. Urbana-based Jim Jordan is also in this district, but even less of it is currently represented by him so I anticipate that he'll carpetbag to OH-5.
OH-3 (Purple)
Deviation: -8
Counties: Montgomery, Greene, Miami (part)
Obama %: 48.8
McCain %: 49.7
Democratic %: 48.1
Republican %: 51.9
Racial groups above 5%: W 78.6 B 16.0
There is an obvious case for a compact Dayton seat and the only question is what areas it should be combined with. Springfield is one candidate, but for statistical purposes Clark county is distinct from the Dayton MSA and combining them would make it hard to include Greene County with related areas.
Instead I chose to combine Greene County, Montgomery County and a small portion of southern Miami County, including Tipp City. The resulting seat leans Republican and Mike Turner would probably hold it easily. Steve Austria also lives in this seat, but he'd likely run in OH-7 instead. If he won a primary here or if Turner retired, however, the district's lean isn't strong enough to preclude a competitive race.
Lima-Van Wert-Wapakoneta CSA, Findlay-Tiffin CSA and Mansfield-Bucyrus CSA
OH-5 (Yellow)
Deviation: -64
Counties: Richland, Allen, Hancock, Seneca, Auglaize, Crawford, Mercer, Defiance, Williams, Putnam, Henry, Van Wert, Wyandot, Paulding, Harding (part)
Obama %: 38.7
McCain %: 59.4
Democratic %: 42.2
Republican %: 57.8
Racial groups above 5%: W 92.1
This district combines several disparate rural and small-town areas across northern and north-western Ohio. Although it looks most like the current OH-5, the addition of Mansfield and Lima mean that a majority of this district is currently represented by Jim Jordan. His home is in my OH-8, but as I doubt he'll fancy challenging Boehner I'd expect him to move north.
Bob Latta's Bowling Green home is also outside the district. He won't want to challenge Kaptur, so I suspect he too would run here, but the majority of McCain voters here are represented by Jordan so he'd have to spring an upset.
Toledo-Fremont CSA
OH-9 (Cyan)
Deviation: -88
Counties: Lucas, Wood, Sandusky, Fulton, Ottawa, Erie (part), Huron (part)
Obama %: 59.3
McCain %: 39.1
Democratic %: 61.5
Republican %: 38.5
Racial groups above 5%: W 81.3 B 11.3
The Toledo-Fremont CSA is almost exactly the right size for a congressional district. With the addition of around 5,000 voters just to the west of the town of Sandusky and the parts of Bellevue in Huron County you have a logical community of interest which Marcy Kaptur would represent for as long as she wants to.
Canton-Massilon MSA and Sandusky MSA
OH-16 (Bright Green)
Deviation: +62
Counties: Stark (part), Wayne, Erie, Huron, Ashland, Carroll, Holmes (part)
Obama %: 48.7
McCain %: 49.2
Democratic %: 52.2
Republican %: 47.8
Racial groups above 5%: W 91.8
Every redistricting scheme has a seat or two that doesn't quite look right. I'm afraid this is one of them, as the Canton area has been linked with the Sandusky area via part of north-central Ohio. Both these areas do appear to look towards Cleveland in some sense, but they aren't a natural unity. However, they were forced together because doing this allows me to create more logical seats elsewhere.
The seat is politically marginal, as lean Democratic Stark and Erie counties are balanced out by lean Republican Huron and Carroll, safe Republican Wayne and Ashland and insanely Republican Holmes counties. It's slightly more Democratic than the seat Boccieri won and Renacci no longer lives in the district (Bob Gibbs does, but he represents almost none of it), so I'm happy to call this a swing seat.
Cleveland-Akron-Elyria CSA
OH-10 (Magenta)
Deviation: -37
Counties: Lorain, Medina, Cuyahoga (part)
Obama %: 53.3
McCain %: 45.2
Democratic %: 58.1
Republican %: 41.9
Racial groups above 5%: W 89.3
Dennis Kucinich only represents a little over 200,000 of this district's inhabitants, as it shifts focus from west Cleveland towards Lorain and Medina counties. However, he'd probably be happy enough with this seat as the only other incumbent here is Jim Renacci, who represents just over 100,000 in Medina county, especially as Renacci's portion is significantly more conservative.
Obama won by something resembling his national margin, but the base Democratic-Republican numbers suggest that it's a little more comfortable than that. I'm calling this a swing seat, but if Kucinich is primaried or moves to Washington, a local Democratic office holder ought to be able to retain the seat.
OH-11 (Chartreuse)
Deviation: +10
Counties: Cuyahoga (part), Lake (part)
Obama %: 82.9
McCain %: 16.2
Democratic %: 83.4
Republican %: 16.6
Racial groups above 5%: W 43.5 B 47 H 5.5
Population loss has for this seat to expand out of the East Side of Cleveland, although with the exception of two precincts it remains entirely situated within Cuyahoga County. It now includes more than 97% of the city of Cleveland.
The seat is no longer black-majority, as I do not consider that the VRA requires a Cleveland-Akron seat. However, I did make sure to grab enough Hispanic areas to keep it majority-minority and the Democratic primary ought to be comfortably majority black. Moreover, the general population is 49.7% black and only 39.5% white, so it is likely that in this configuration the district will become blacker over the decade.
OH-14 (Olive)
Deviation: -23
Counties: Cuyahoga (part), Lake (part), Astabula, Geauga
Obama %: 50.8
McCain %: 47.7
Democratic %: 54.5
Republican %: 45.5
Racial groups above 5%: W 92.2
OH-14 sheds its portions of Trumbull, Summit and Portage in exchange for southern portions of Cuyahoga including Parma. The new additions are not a natural fit for the rest of the district, but they're hardly worlds apart either.
Obama narrowly lost the current OH-14, whereas he would have won here. LaTourette has generally overperformed, but more than 250,000 new voters and the slight improvement in Obama numbers both suggest that the district could be competitive with the right candidate.
OH-13 (Clay)
Deviation: -68
Counties: Summit, Portage, Cuyahoga (part), Stark (part)
Obama %: 56.5
McCain %: 42.1
Democratic %: 62.2
Republican %: 37.8
Racial groups above 5%: W 84.8 B 10.7
Summit and Portage counties constitute the Akron MSA and together are almost exactly the right size for a congressional district. The addition of Brecksville in Cuyahoga county plus a couple of precincts in northern Stark county is all that is needed to achieve population equality.
Betty Sutton would face no trouble here. Safe Democratic
Youngstown-Warren-East Liverpool CSA
OH-6 (Teal)
Deviation: +43
Counties: Mahoning, Trumbull, Columbiana, Jefferson, Belmont, Harrison, Monroe (part)
Obama %: 56.6
McCain %: 41.2
Democratic %: 70.9
Republican %: 29.1
Racial groups above 5%: W 88.4 B 8.1
This district is more or less equal parts Tim Ryan's Mahoning Valley based OH-17 and Bill Johnson's Ohio River district. The partisan lean of the district, however, and especially its monolithic Democratic voting history, suggest that it is Ryan who would win out comfortably in this match up, if it ever occurred.
Johnson might prefer to run in the new OH-4, however.
No statistical super-areas of note
OH-4 (Red)
Deviation: +40
Counties: Tuscarawas, Muskingum, Scioto, Lawrence, Washington, Athens, Guernsey, Coschocton, Jackson, Gallia, Pike, Adams (part), Meigs, Holmes (part), Morgan, Noble, Monroe (part), Vinton (part)
Obama %: 46.0
McCain %: 51.6
Democratic %: 56.9
Republican %: 43.1
Racial groups above 5%: W 95.4
Although this district takes the number from one currently situated in western Ohio, it shares absolutely no territory with it. A little under half of this seat is currently in OH-18, nearly 40% is in OH-6 and the balance is in OH-2.
The seat currently has no incumbent, as Gibbs lives in the north-west corner of Holmes county and is therefore around 10 miles outside the district borders. He ought to be able to move south, but he only narrowly won the primary last time and might face problems a second time.
Going be presidential results alone this ought to be safe Republican, but much of this district is Appalachian and the tradition of Democratic voting makes it a swing seat.
Columbus-Marion-Chillicothe CSA
OH-15 (Orange)
Deviation: +12
Counties: Franklin (part)
Obama %: 67.7
McCain %: 30.8
Democratic %: 65.7
Republican %: 34.3
Racial groups above 5%: W 64.0 B 25.8
This district is made up of the territory within I-270 plus a small section to the east and minus the suburbs of Dublin and Worthington in the north. Stivers lives but would not run here.
It's a very safe Democratic seat and whilst the primary isn't likely to be black-majority, the district could certainly elect a black Democract.
OH-7 (Grey)
Deviation: +51
Counties: Franklin (part), Fairfield, Ross, Pickaway, Union, Madison, Perry, Hocking, Fayette, Hardin (part), Vinton (part)
Obama %: 42.1
McCain %: 56.1
Democratic %: 45.7
Republican %: 54.3
Racial groups above 5%: W 90.4
This seat looks like a mash-up of the current OH-7 and OH-15, and appearances are not deceptive here. Just under 300,000 come from the former district and a quarter of a million from the latter, with most of the balance comprised of territory absorbed from OH-18, most notably Chillicothe.
The district is currently incumbentless, but Stivers would certainly run here and Austria almost certainly would. Who would win out is an open question. Austria has the advantage in terms of population, but he loses his base in Greene County, whereas the vast majority of the Franklin portions of this district are currently represented by Stivers.
OH-12 (Cornflower)
Deviation: -62
Counties: Tuscarawas, Muskingum, Scioto, Lawrence, Washington, Athens, Guernsey, Coschocton, Jackson, Gallia, Pike, Adams (part), Meigs, Holmes (part), Morgan, Noble, Monroe (part), Vinton (part)
Obama %: 43.8
McCain %: 54.6
Democratic %: 44.3
Republican %: 55.7
Racial groups above 5%: W 89.0 B 5.4
This seat combines northern and eastern parts of Franklin County (including Reynoldsburg and Gahanna), with rural and exurban areas of the CSA. Tiberi would likely be one of the few Republicans happy with this map, as he becomes substantially safer whilst still retaining two thirds of his constituents.