I thought it might be intersting, with a little less than a year to go until the 2012 elections, to see where things stand IMHO on the 2012 Senate races. I'd like to do two more of these, one around Labor Day and one right before the election. I have one rule with these - I don't do tossups. Races are either lean, likely or safe. Based on this, I'm currently predicting a one seat pickup for the Republicans. I'll be interested to hear your comments. So here we go:
Arizona - Right now it looks like Jeff Flake will be the nominee for the open seat being vacated by Jon Kyl. Don Bivens and Richard Carmona are battling it out for the Dem nomination. I think this one is going to be close, with Carmona being a particular wild-card if he wins. He's a former Bush Surgeon General with no campaign experience. That might be a good thing or bad thing. Right now, I rate this Lean Republican but just barely.
California - Safe Democrat, even if Diane Feinstein does not run.
Connecticut - If Chris Shays wins the Republican nomination, and Susan Bysiewicz were to win the Dem nomination, I might rate this only lean Dem. Since it's likely to be Linda McMahon vs. Chris Murphy, I rate it Safe Dem
Delaware - Safe Dem
Florida - This is the tough thing about writing this now. A recent poll shows this race compeitive with Connie Mack as the Republican nominee. It's hard to say whether that poll is an outlier, and Mack isn't even assured of the nomination. I'm going to say Lean Dem at this point. But that could change into likely Dem, or the other way, depending on whether Mack is the real thing.
Hawaii - Linda Lingle forces the Dems to spend some money here, but my guess, in an election year with native son Obama at the top of the ticket, that's it. Likely Dem
Indiana - If Richard Mourdock beats Richard Lugar, which I think is the probable outcome right now, than I'm guessing Likely Republican. I think Indiana is trending away from Dems right now, and I don't think Dem candidate Joe Donnelly can overcome this trend against Mourdock. If Lugar wins, it would be Safe Republican.
Maine - if you're an optimist, you can say Olympia Snowe will almost certainly be beaten by a tea partier and this seat becomes safe Dem. I see no sign of this right now, so it's Likely Republican, as far as I'm concerned.
Massachusetts - If I just went by polls alone, I might go with Lean Republican or maybe Lean Dem. But Elizabeth Warren is turning out to be a stronger candidate than I thought, and in this Democratic state, that spells doom for Scott Brown, regardless of what the polls say now Likely Dem
Michigan - Despite Republican protestations to the contrary, Debbie Stabenow looks pretty strong to me. Likely Dem
Minnesota - Safe Dem
Misssissippi - Safe Republican, even if Jim Hood runs, which he's almost definitely not going to do
Missouri - A marquis race, pitting Claire McCaskill against one of three comparatively weak Republican candidates. I think McCaskill is a stronger campaigner than Robin Carnahan was last year, and the Republican candidates look pretty bad to me so far, so I'm going with Lean Dem
Montana - This is a tough one. In some ways, it's a rerun of Jon Tester's race against Conrad Burns, in the sense that Montana's Republican sympathies work against Tester but Denny Rehberg has a lot of issues. But last time Tester wasn't running in a presidential year, and Montana will likely not vote for Obama. I think that fact gives Rehberg a slight advantage. Lean Republican
Nebraska - Ben Nelson is in serious trouble, and no, Bob Kerrey is not coming back to run for the seat. Fortunately for Nelson, his opponents are all very flawed. Unfortunately, I think the Republican lean of the state, combined with a lack of enthusiasm from many Nebraska Dems for Nelson, makes him an underdog, at this point. Lean Republican
Nevada - Another great race, pitting incumbent Dean Heller against Shelley Berkeley. Polls are showing this tight, and polls in Nevada traditionally undercount Latinos, which favor the Democrats. I think Obama wins this state, and I think Berkeley does as well. Lean Democrat
New Jersey - Safe Dem, despite a palatable lack of enthusiasm for Menendez.
New Mexico - an interesting race. I think Heather Wilson beats John Sanchez, and she'll be a tougher opponent for the Dem nominee than he would be. But the Dem sympathies of the state, combined with the strength of both potential Dem nominees, will still make this Lean Dem
New York - Safe Dem
North Dakota - Dems seemed to be on the road to oblivion in this race before the entrance of Heidi Heitkamp turned things around. Heitkamp has been a great campaigner in the past, and Rick Berg has only won one statewide election. The conservatism of North Dakota and the unpopularity of Obama may be too much to overcome, and that's why it's Lean Republican for now. But Hietkamp makes it a race.
Ohio - Sherrod Brown is strong, and Josh Mandel is overrated. Likely Dem
Pennsylvania - Safe Dem
Rhode Island - Safe Dem
Tennessee - It would have been likely Republican even with Phil Bredesen in it (yes, I know what that one poll said), but since he's not running, it's Safe Republican
Texas - Hey, look, Ricardo Sanchez is running for the Democrats, and he's a former general. Except he sucks at fundraising, and has been almost invisible since declaring his candidacy. He wouldn't have won anyway. Dems will be able to win a Senate race in Texas, in 10 years. Maybe. Safe Republican
Utah - A lot of people got their hopes up thinking Jim Matheson might run, although I would have still had it lean Republican. Now that he's not running, it's Safe Republican
Vermont - Safe Independent who caucuses with the Democrats
Virginia - I stand by this formula: If Obama wins Virginia, Tim Kaine wins this race. If Obama loses by more than five points, George Allen wins. If Obama loses the state by less than five points, Tim Kaine wins, since he's more popular than Allen with Republicans than Allen is with Democrats. That makes it Lean Dem
Washington - Safe Dem
West Virginia - Likely Dem But the caveat here is this could change depending on who runs against Manchin.
Wisconsin - Tammy Baldwin is pretty liberal for the state, and if Tommy Thompson wins the Republican nomination I'd probably have this at Lean Republican. But I don't think Thompson will be the nominee, and Baldwin can beat any of the other guys. So I'll say Lean Dem
Wyoming - Safe Republican