As the rest of us are focused on the GOP Presidential Primary, we need to take a look at some of the Senate primaries for sources of humor. While the Republicans might have their ideal candidates in Missouri, Virginia, Montana, North Dakota and Ohio, there are still plenty of states with overcrowded GOP primaries. People believe that Pete Hoekstra in Michigan will succeed from the crowded primary and it looks like Florida Republicans have their man in Connie Mack, there is one particular race where the GOP primary is ridiculously packed with either semi-big names or no name lunatics. I'm talking about the Pennsylvania Republican U.S. Senate primary.
With major Republican victories taking place in PA in 2010, Senator Robert P. Casey, Jr. has been a big target for both the local and national Republican party. Ever since Senator Casey took out their golden boy, Rick Santorum in 2006, they have been hungry for vengeance. Especially since Santorum is the only incumbent in PA history to lose by a huge margin. Polling shows Obama's approval rating in PA are down and Casey's approval rating are ok but when you look at the GOP field a little closer, you can see that Republicans don't have a great chance at beating Senator Casey. Let's go through all of the nine nominees descending from most likely to get the nominee to least likely.
Tim Burns - the two time losing congressional race who lost to Congressman Mark Critz for John Murtha's old congressional seat.
Sam Rohrer - former member of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, failed GOP gubernatorial candidate and state director of the Pennsylvania chapter of the Koch funded Americans For Prosperity.
Tom Smith - former conservative Democrat, Tea Party speaker and coal baron.
Steve Welch - the Chester County entrepreneur, Republican-turned-Democrat-turned Republican and former Obama and Sestak supporter (no joke).
Marc Scaringi - Former Santorum aide, Harrisburg-based corporate lawyer and a demented-looking version of Murray from Flight Of the Conchords.
John Vernon - retired Military Colonel and Chief Of Operations of Operation Iraqi Freedom.
David Christian - Vietnam veteran, failed congressional candidate and V.P. of the Council of Vietname Veterans.
John Kensinger - registered pharmacist from New Paris, PA.
Laureen Cummings - head of the Scranton Tea Party.
This is who Casey is up against. It's surprising that neither Vernon or Christian have so far attracted a big following. Scaringi was the first one to jump in the race and has immediately started attacking Welch for being an "Arlen Specter" Republican. Welch is trying to be the chosen nominee because he is wealthy and can fund his own campaign but it's going to be impossible for him to overcome the fact that he raised money for Sestak and voted for Obama. Casey is a terrific campaigner and fundraiser and his family name is Pennsylvania royalty. His father was a well-loved governor. Despite his ok approval ratings, Casey's chances of winning re-election are very good. Despite his pro-life stance, Casey is a good Senator and a pragmatic Democrat. PA Democrats were a little sore when Rendell talked Joe Hoffel out of running for Senate again but I believe Rendell was right in paving the way for Casey. The last Democratic Senator to hold that Senate seat for two terms was Joseph Clark. The last Democrat to be elected was Harris Wolford who won the 1991 special election after the sudden death of decent moderate Republican Senator, John Heinz. Wolford was narrowly defeated by Santorum in 1994. It makes sense that Rendell wanted Casey to be the nominee because of his name recognition and his reputation as a great Treasurer and State Auditor. Rendell wanted to find a Democrat that could hold onto that seat for longer than two terms and that man is Robert P. Casey, Jr.
The Republicans have wanted to make Casey 2012's Russ Feingold and nominate someone who can finance his/her own campaign. No luck getting Dick's Sporting Good's CEO and Pittsburgh based businessman, Ed Stack into the game (so far). Tom Smith has hired some of Pat Toomey's old campaign colleagues to work on his campaign. It's not clear who will win the nominee yet. It's very likely that it will come down between Rohrer and Burns because they have name recognition but folks like Scaringi are a lose cannon and Smith's coal money could buy him the nominee. Either way, all of these candidates have either heavy baggage (Welch, Scaringi & Christian), zero name recognition (Kensinger, Cummings, Vernon) or are too extreme and have caused trouble in their own party (Rohrer). Burns is the most likely to win as of right now but could he be a "third time's a charm" kind of candidate? He wouldn't be the first candidate to lose one big election and then go on to win another big seat. Casey ran for governor in 2002 but lost to Rendell in the primary. Plus with the Tea Party being known to pull surprises, Rohrer might win the nominee this time but supposedly he caused so much trouble in the GOP Governor Primary so who knows. The Senate race is important but the lack of GOP big names so far makes this race and an easy win for Casey. Former congressman and Iraq War Veteran Patrick Murphy is running for Attorney General will be the bigger race in PA because he could be the first Democrat elected to that seat. The second big race is the Presidential election. Plus Democrats are aiming to take out GOP congressmen like Pat Meehan, Jim Gerlach, Charlie Dent, Mike Fitzpartick and the infamous Mexican-hating, Lou Barletta. Being that this is a Presidential election and Tom Corbett's failed attempted to rig the Presidential election are helpful factors for Casey's re-election bid and possibly Obama's. PA has been going blue since 1992 and despite a nasty primary in PA between Obama and Hilary Clinton, I think Obama still has a good shot at winning the state. Romney's future seems unclear right now because Cain and Gingrich are now ahead. Gingrich is originally from Harrisburg but there's no telling yet if that factor would help him win the state. The fact that Newt cheated on his wife while she had cancer will greatly hurt him with voters. Polls have showed Obama either tied, ahead or behind Romney by two points. PPP showed a while back that Santorum would be the PA GOP's top choice for the Senate candidate but PPP showed that Casey would still beat him between 8 to 15 points. Tom Ridge doesn't have the stomach to run for this position. He even ducked out of running in 2010 to pave the way for Toomey. Plus Ridge is a lot like Tommy Thompson, he doesn't have the balls to go farther to the right.
I will be following this race more closely and report back with some more analysis on the primary.