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Leading Off:

KY Redistricting: Kentucky's been one of the laggard states when it comes to redistricting, I suspect because pols there wanted to wait until their odd-numbered-year elections concluded. But now things are finally moving forward, and Democrats are out with new proposed maps, which you can see below. Both of them shore up Dem Rep. Ben Chandler, but note that these are just initial drafts/ Democrats control the governor's mansion and the state House, but the GOP runs the Senate, so either a compromise or a court-drawn map will be necessary.

KY Dem redistricting proposals
Senate:

PA-Sen: Sam Rohrer, who has been inching toward a run for some time, will formally join the Republican primary field on Monday. Rohrer is a former head of the Pennsylvania chapter of Americans for Prosperity, the notorious Koch brothers front group.

Gubernatorial:

MO-Gov: Ah, fun. Some serious TARP-related troubles for plastics magnate Dave Spence, the newly-minted Republican gubernatorial savior:

In addition to Alpha Packaging, Spence served for six years on the board of directors for Reliance Bancshares Inc., a bank holding company headquartered in St. Louis. In February, the company announced it would stop making payments to the U.S. Treasury on the $42 million it received under the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP.

Spence told the Associated Press that he didn't recall any details about that decision to stop making payments. But he defended the federal bank bailout program, saying it helped avoid a potential economic disaster by providing banks with "extra cushion of capital."

He told PoliticMo on Tuesday that he resigned from the board in March because of the issue, although paperwork filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission says his March resignation was "not related to any disagreements with [Reliance Bancshares'] operations, policies or practices."

Supporting TARP is usually sin enough to earn some serious noogies on the campaign trail. Actually taking TARP money is something else altogether… and refusing to pay it back? Oof. (Note that this is not a comment on the merits of TARP itself, but rather how it plays as a campaign issue.)

NH-Gov: This should be an entertaining battle of the crazies. Conservative activist Kevin Smith, former head of an advocacy group called Cornerstone Action, has, as expected, declared that he will enter the Republican primary. He joins fellow nutter Ovide Lamontagne, which is almost perfect for us, since the two will very likely try their hardest to out-lunatic each other as they seek the GOP nomination.

WI-Gov: Somehow, St. Norbert College has found support for recalling GOP Gov. Scott Walker at an astounding 58-38 spread, up from 47-48 in April. That is basically impossible to believe, especially since 24% of Republicans supposedly in favor of the idea. It's also contradicted by PPP's polling, which has consistently seen an evenly-divided electorate. Really, I just can't take this poll seriously.

House:

AR-04 (PDF): Beth Anne Rankin, the unsuccessful 2010 Republican nominee in the 4th CD, is touting an internal which shows her with a huge 40-3 lead over newly-minted golden boy Tom Cotton in the GOP primary. The poll, from the firm of Dresner, Wickers, Barber, Sanders, does contain one oddity. At the top of the memo, it says: "The margin of error, at .90 confidence is +/- 4%." I've never seen a single political poll which uses anything other than a 95% confidence interval—indeed, that is such a common standard that you almost never even see the confidence interval mentioned. I don't know why they chose to play this game, since the poll reveals its sample size, a perfectly respectable 400. (That's a 4.9% MoE by normal reckoning.)

AZ-02: Local sports radio announcer Dave Sitton says he's forming an exploratory committee to run in the proposed new 2nd CD, which would pit him against Rep. Gabby Giffords if she seeks re-election (and if the draft redistricting map is actually adopted). Sitton's the third Republican in the mix, along with state Sen. Frank Antenori and 2010 nominee Jesse Kelly.

CA-26: Ventura County Supervisor Steve Bennett, whose name first emerged as a possible candidate back in August, was expected to officially join the race for California's redrawn 26th District on Wednesday. There are a few other Democratic contenders here, though with Bennett's entry, he probably becomes the frontrunner. No Republicans are in the race as yet because everyone is waiting on Rep. Elton Gallegly to decide if he'll run here or just bail altogether.

CA-44: Republican businessman Craig Huey, who ran a decently competitive race against Janice Hahn in the CA-36 special election earlier this year, won't seek a rematch (Hahn's since moved over to the new 44th) and will instead run for the state Assembly.

CO-03: Sal Pace is definitely in this thing: He just stepped down from his post as state House Minority Leader in order to concentrate on his run for Congress against GOP freshman Scott Tipton.

IL-08: A pair of locals of the United Food and Commercial Workers Union (aka the UFCW) endorsed Tammy Duckworth's candidacy for the Democratic nomination on Wednesday.

IL-10: We missed this last week, but activist Ilya Sheyman just picked up his second endorsement from a member of Illinois' congressional delegation: Rep. Danny Davis joined Jesse Jackson, Jr. in giving his support to Sheyman in the Democratic primary.

Meanwhile, I've received confirmation from the Brad Schneider campaign that DCCC recruiting chair Allyson Schwartz did not endorse Schneider, contrary to this piece from Grayslake Patch. However, back in June, her leadership PAC ("We the People PAC") gave him $1,000.

IL-12: GOP state Rep. Mike Bost had been considering a run for the seat left behind by retiring Dem Rep. Jerry Costello, but now he says he won't pull the trigger. (He will instead run for re-election to the state House.) Last year's Republican Lt. Gov. nominee, Jason Plummer, entered the race late last month, so that may have been a deterrent to Bost.

MA-09: Dem Senate President Therese Murray says she won't run in the new, and nominally open, 9th CD, to which Dem Rep. Bill Keating is relocating. Keating's 2010 opponent in the general election, GOPer Jeff Perry, says he won't run, either—nor will Republican state Rep. Vinnie DeMacedo. But the Boston Herald lists several other new potential candidates, including Keating's 2010 primary rival, former State Sen. Robert O’Leary (who says he's considering the race), Dem state Sen. Mark Montigny, and Republican Plymouth County District Attorney Timothy Cruz.

NJ-02: Michael Assad, a member of the Absecon (pop. 8,400) Board of Education and a self-identified Tea Partier, says he plans to challenge veteran Rep. Frank LoBiondo in the Republican primary. Godspeed, little buddy.

NV-04: State Sen. John Lee's campaign manager says his boss is reconsidering his run for congress in Nevada's new, blue-tinted 4th CD—and if he gets out, that would clear the way for one of Horsford's fellow state senators, Majority Leader Steven Horsford, to scoop up the Democratic nomination. I've gotta believe Lee will bail after making remarks like these—it's a lot harder to win a race after you publicly moot quitting it.

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, Jon Ralston seems to be suggesting that Danny Tarkanian is polling a potential primary matchup in the new 4th against state Sen. Barbara Cegavske, who just entered the race late last week. The numbers apparently show a massive lead for Tark, who has failed in three prior runs for office (and whose wife was recently elected chair of the Nevada Republican Party). In response, newly minted GOP Rep. Mark Amodei endorsed Cegavske, which Ralston thinks is a message to Tarkanian to stay out of the race.

OH-07: Dem ex-Rep. Zack Space, who lost in last year's red tide, had reportedly been considering a comeback bid, though I don't believe we ever heard so from the horse's mouth. Now, though, that seems very unlikely, since he just took a job with an Ohio-based consulting firm. Space is only 50 years old, though, so he could conceivably run again somewhere down the line. (By the way, I've filed this under OH-07 even though Space's old district was the 18th; that's because the 18th has been eliminated and the guy who beat Space, Bob Gibbs, has been placed in the new 7th.)

SC-07: Horry County Council Chairman Tom Rice officially launched his campaign for the GOP nomination for South Carolina's new 7th CD on Wednesday. It's definitely going to be a busy Republican primary.

WA-03: Clark County Commissioner Steve Stuart, who first said he was looking at a run against GOP freshman Jamie Herrera Beutler back in August, just announced that he won't make a bid for Congress. However, at least one other potential candidate is still waiting in the wings, Vancouver Mayor Tim Leavitt. (Leavitt's never actually declared that he's a Democrat, but given Washington's top-two primary system, a run as a Republican would probably be doomed.)

Also, earlier this week, Jon Haugen, a Navy vet and commercial pilot for Delta Air Lines, became the first challenger to enter the field. Haugen lost a state Senate bid in 2008 as a Democrat, then ran without any party line for a state House seat last year (also unsuccessfully), so it's not clear if he's running as a Democrat this time or what.

Grab Bag:

Ads: Two new ad campaigns have been launched this week in a variety of federal races. First up, a trio of labor groups— AFSCME, SEIU, and Americans United for Change—are targeting Republicans Denny Rehberg (MT-Sen), Scott Brown (MA-Sen), and Dean Heller (NV-Sen), warning them not to cut Medicare. The ads use the same script; here's the Brown version:

In response, or so it would seem, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is launching spots dinging Dem Sen. Jon Tester in Montana and fluffing Heller in Nevada. They also go after another Democrat, Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, but the rest of their ads (which you can watch here) are all positive spots for three Republicans representatives: Tom Latham (IA-03), Pat Meehan (PA-07), and Dave Reichert (WA-08). Those last two are odd choices because that means expensive buys in the full Philadelphia and Seattle media markets (you can't really target just a single congressional district in a big city).

Demographics: Here's a startling new data point from the Census Bureau: mobility is at its lowest level since the Census started keeping track of it, in 1948. In other words, a smaller percentage of people changed residences last year than in any previous year, only 11.6%. A lot of that, of course, has to do economic conditions: more people are stuck because they're underwater on mortgages, and fewer people are moving for new job opportunities. Naturally, this has political implications, too, as we may be entering a new period of population stasis rather than what we saw in the last decade, where Sun Belt states grew rapidly (but also where their urban areas got bluer). (David Jarman)

Massachusetts: Gov. Deval Patrick just signed legislation moving Massachusetts' super-late Sept. 18 primary all the way to… Sept. 6 (which is a Thursday). The original date would have conflicted with the second day of Rosh Hashanah, and it also would have made compliance with the federal MOVE Act impossible. That legislation requires that absentee ballots be sent to overseas voters at least 45 days before a federal election. It seems pretty bone-headed to shift the primary by just twelve days, though, because the state would still risk a MOVE Act violation if there are any protracted recounts. Anyhow, there had been talk of consolidating the state's March presidential primary with the September election into a single unified June primary, but with the passage of this bill into law, that seems unlikely now.

Pennsylvania: Ordinarily, a change in the party control of a county council would be too down in the weeds for us, but as the last votes from last week's elections get swept up, I think we can point to an overall trend here. In 12 different counties in Pennsylvania (most of which are historically Democratic), county council control switched from Democrats to Republicans. We mentioned last week that Westmoreland County in Pittsburgh's suburbs finally switched to GOP control at the county level (after having gone red, presidentially, for the last few decades), but now several other big but aging and shrinking counties (including Cambria, where Johnstown is, Mercer, another steel mill county near Pittsburgh, and Schuylkill, in coal country north of Harrisburg), plus a host of other smaller ones mostly in western Pennsylvania, flipped too.

However, again, the real story is that the two halves of the state are moving in totally opposite directions, preserving the state's swingy balance. Two counties moved from GOP to Democratic control, one of which is Philadelphia's most populous suburban county, Montgomery; in fact, the 12 counties that switched to the GOP, with their populations all added up, only have a few hundred thousand more people than Montgomery by itself. (David Jarman)

Redistricting Roundup:

AK Redistricting: Unusually for us, we have not one but two state-level redistricting stories today, but we don't mention Alaska much and I thought this one was interesting. Despite the state's red hue, the Alaska Senate is actually evenly divided between 10 Democrats and 10 Republicans—and power is shared rather unusually. Six of those Republicans (the saner ones in the bunch) are part of a governing coalition with all of the Democrats, due to a split on the GOP side that dates back to 2006. However, thanks to redistricting, a number of Democratic seats are vulnerable next year, which could return the chamber to a Republican majority. That may or may not change the balance of power, though, since the original coalition was formed back when Democrats had only nine seats—and hardcore Republicans are talking about trying to win six seats, which suggests that a simple GOP majority might not affect the current arrangement.

CO Redistricting: As I say, we don't usually cover legislative redistricting here are DKos Elections unless there's something unusual to discuss... but, well, this is unusual. Colorado's Supreme Court just struck down the state's new legislative maps because too many counties were split up. The plans were drawn by a commission, which was split between five Republicans and five Democrats, with an independent member acting as the tie-breaker, though both maps passed by wide majorities (8-3 for the House and 9-2 for the Senate). In any event, the commission must go back to the drawing board and re-submit new maps to the high court by Dec. 6.

Meanwhile, on the federal level, it looks like Colorado Republicans are ready to roll dem bones. After pondering for a week, they've decided to appeal the trial court decision which adopted a Democratic-drawn congressional map to resolve the state's redistricting impasse. The poignant problem they face, of course, is that a higher court could very well produce an even worse map for them—a very real risk, given how unrealistic the GOP's proposals have been so far.

MA Redistricting: On Tuesday, the Bay State's new congressional redistricting plan flew through the Democrat-controlled House as expected (by predictably huge margins). However, in a surprise twist, Dem state Sen. Brian Joyce used a procedural move to hold up consideration in the upper chamber. It sounds like Joyce is unhappy that his home town of Milton is split in the new map, and he wants lawmakers to consider amendments. I don't know how much ability Joyce has to actually derail the legislation, though, since debate was set to resume on the map on Wednesday.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  What is the incentive for (0+ / 0-)

    Kentucky republicans to play ball at all? The courts can't make any of there district's any worst

    WV-1, Male, 22, SSP: buff2011 Elect Ed Case Sen. and Reelect Sen. Ben Nelson

    by buff2011 on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 05:11:44 AM PST

    •  Uh (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, KingofSpades, TofG, MichaelNY

      the point is to start from our side of the court? I very much doubt the GOP in Kentucky will go for these maps but when we enter negotiations it's good to have an aggressive Dem gerrymander as our starting position, don't you think? If we started in the center we'd just end up with a map much closer to what the GOP wants.

      Yami Yugi: Wait a minute! Did you just summon a bunch of monsters in one turn? Seto Kaiba: Yeah. So? Yami: That's against the rules, isn't it? Kaiba: Screw the rules, I have money! — Episode 1, Yu-Gi-Oh! The Abridged Series

      by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 05:23:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I love the congressional map. (5+ / 0-)

        I live in Ky and my county used to be in the 5th district, and now it is in the 4th. We are stuck with Geoff Davis and since we are a small county, we are just ignored. The congressional map would put my county into the 6th district. We might have a blue dog, but at least we would have a democrat to represent us.

        "This isn't for the ones who would gladly swallow everything their leaders would have them know". Mary Chapin Carpenter

        by malenda on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 06:48:03 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  You don't go to a garage sales (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, Setsuna Mudo, DCCyclone, jncca, MichaelNY

      And offer the marked price.  This is negotiations 101.

  •  Unemployment claims down to 388K (5+ / 0-)

    'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

    by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 06:24:50 AM PST

    •  Holiday hiring? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, Setsuna Mudo

      I know they said holiday hiring is supposed to be down, but I doubt it will be.  Retail sales are still relatively strong.  Also, giving out of work people holiday work also helps feed retail sales, so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy somewhat.

      •  the whole economic process (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        xcave, MichaelNY

        is a self-fulfilling prophecy

        •  We ll my point was around holiday retail sales (0+ / 0-)

          It seems like every year since 2007 people were surprised by strong retail sales, which they shouldn't be.  Its pretty easy to see that adding more workers in, plus inflation, plus slight recoveries, plus solid luxury good sales all work to make it happen.  

      •  Official claims (5+ / 0-)

        are always seasonally adjusted.

        People panic too much on this site.

        by thematt523 on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 08:10:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  No, these are adjusted numbers (5+ / 0-)

        "Adjusted" means that to give a more accurate picture of the economy, they filter out the seasonal stuff that distorts the numbers.

        This is a real decline, and more good news.  It's been a slow and steady decline in initial unemployment claims, good news without qualification.

        If this continues the next couple weeks, expect the unemployment rate to drop into the high 8s for November when the report comes out two weeks from tomorrow.

        Oh, and the next big milestone is 375K weekly initial jobless claims.  Get below that, and net job growth accelerates.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 10:07:23 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I've never really trusted the adjustments (0+ / 0-)

          to government statistics, it seems to want to take reality out of the situation.  Non-farm payrolls (farmers don't matter?) and seasonally adjusted (seasons happen up north) never cease to amaze me.

          My favorite of course is when they report CPI/inflation excluding the prices of food and energy, because who needs those (I know they are "too volatile" but figure something out rather than just excluding it).

          I like the raw data, which actually seems to paint an even better picture

          •  adjustments (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, DCCyclone

            Adjusted data are almost always easier to work with. Most people have no idea how big a typical seasonal effect is. They would hear something like "100,000 retail jobs were created in November" and think that it actually means something, when retail hiring always goes up in November to accommodate the Christmas feeding frenzy. The seasonal adjustment helps to put the numbers in context without requiring people to have the BLS web page open to the right table to determine what a number actually means.

            It's true that you might not expect a normal-size seasonal adjustment in unusual economic circumstances such as the deep slump we are in now, but interpreting data during a recession is tricky whether you are using the seasonal adjustment or not.

            SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 05:07:28 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  sacman, please comment on new data? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              My take is this is unambiguously awesome.  It's quite a trend now for initial unemployment compensation claims to keep declining.  I realize the 388K probably will be revised upward a bit next week consistent with the trend of slight upward revisions, but this is as good as I could've dreamed of.

              I'm really hoping we eventually get down below 375K weekly, because once you get below that mark it signals a faster expansion.

              43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 08:02:33 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  new claims (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, DCCyclone

                The trend over the last few months is unambiguously down, and the last two weeks have been the lowest of the bunch which suggests that November's job number should be somewhat better than October's. I wouldn't fixate on round numbers like 400k or 375k, but the numbers are approaching the levels that are typical of a mature expansion.

                Most of the other indicators have also improved this month: industrial production, retail sales, etc. Overall the economy seems to be in somewhat better shape than it was in the 3rd quarter.

                SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

                by sacman701 on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 09:34:18 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Thanks for reassuring us! (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Your take is mine, too, but you do this for a living (my work is in unemployment compensation and related programs for the jobless, but not comprehensive economic analysis).

                  43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 05:31:42 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

  •  I guess John Liu is not the frontrunner anymore? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 06:25:05 AM PST

    •  Yeah, I'm pretty bummed about this (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

      But after the NYT's recent investigative piece, I'm certainly not surprised. Sigh.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 07:54:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Lesson: Careful trying to be "populist." (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

      John Liu certainly has no trouble raising money and certainly has no need to cut corners.  With campaign finance rules surrounding matching funds there is only a very limited amount of money one needs to raise.  But he decided partly for PR reasons and partly to build his database of supporters to instead raise his money in small increments.  Rather than making him look like a man of the people he's getting blow back from immigrants often with poor english language skills and certainly with little knowledge of the law doing more harm than good.  Would've been a better idea to just take a book from Quinn's book and just have the typical well connected city contractors and lobbyists arrange for fewer and larger maximum donations.

      As for him being the frontrunner.  Poll wise probably that has been Quinn though at this point polls are mostly whoever has the dimmest of name identification.

      Liu has been courting liberals partly by being the loudest and most strident in opposing Bloomberg.  DiBlasio is well liked among the party bosses or as I heard someone say "DiBlasio knows how to treat regular Democrats."

      Both have strong union support.  Though Liu might well be hurt more by his joint proposal with Bloomberg to streamline pension boards than any of this stuff.

      The guy I'd look out for is the rarely discussed Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer who has been impressing people.

      Maybe it's just where I live but I have yet to actually talk with anyone in NYC who actually likes Christine Quinn.  Even the folks I know in AIDS Action dislike her.  But the business establishment certainly likes her and she still has two years to forge an identify separate from that of Bloomberg.

      As I've been saying for months if I had to place money on someone I'd put it on DiBlasio.

      •  After what Bloomberg has done to OWS (0+ / 0-)

        Quinn has no chance whatsoever unless she roundly condemns Bloomberg's brutality and disassociates herself from him at this late date.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 07:36:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  She has. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          http://www.politickerny.com/...

          Course it isn't as forceful as Liu, diBlasio, or Stringer who have previously openly supported OWS.  Though honestly Stringer bringing up Tianamen Square was a bit much.  Not that I think it will even be an issue come 2013.  But the question is not whether she can organize a press conference but whether she can form her own separate identity on issues such as (over)development and education.

          Or crime for that matter.

          •  Why do you think it won't be an issue in 2013? (0+ / 0-)

            Do you expect the movement to fade away? If so, why?

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 07:28:32 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  It would be sad if it didn't. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              If in 2013 you still have folks trying to pitch tents with a sprawling laundry list of demands it means everything has went wrong. Though I guess it is possible since there has been too much emphasis on "occupy" and not enough on "wall street" or political (as opposed to street) organizing.  It is reminding me of the anti-globalization protests you saw at the G-8 summits in the late Clinton / early Bush years.  Very large and surprisingly organized but ultimately made irrelevant by a failure to do anything besides protest.

              The Tea Party succeeded not just because they got a lot of publicity with some often goofy protests but because they went home and organized to make an impact in their party and an impact in the general election.  Not that a generous helping of Koch brothers money didn't hurt.

              Hopefully OWS metamorphizes like the anti-Iraq war movement did into something bigger that helps affect the political process positively.

              But by 2013 I believe it will fade either because it has grown into something unrecognizable but ultimately bigger and better as the 2012 election season passes or has atrophied and withered away in futility.

              The only way OWS protests may still become an issue is if Ray Kelly is the Republican nominee (which is unlikely as Ray Kelly has been privately telling people emphatically he isn't interested).

              Though the reason diBlasio, Liu, and Stringer have been so emphatic in their support is that they are hoping some of those folks do become involved in their campaigns.  If not necessarily the protests themselves are around in 2013 the candidates are looking for the issues and the energy to remain.

              •  I respect what you say (0+ / 0-)

                But I think it will take more than 2 years to transform this society. It took 40 some-odd years for all those resources to trickle up. Wresting them from the Powers That Be isn't going to be so easy.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 20, 2011 at 08:43:38 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

  •  PA Counties (7+ / 0-)

    Certainly lends credence to the all politics is local saying.  Its actually quite amazing how much ticket splitting there is in PA outside Philly.

    I started crunching some numbers last night for PA in 2010 and 2008; none of the swings is really a big surprise (at least in the big counties, I don't care much about 20K populated counties).  Its even more amazing at the voting in PA in 2008, Obama got 3.25M votes and won by 600K, Corbett (GOP Incumbent AttyGen) got 3M and won by 400K, Wagner (Dem Incum Auditor) got 3.3M votes and won by 1.2M votes.

    I look at that as crazy, several hundred thousand people (outside Philly, which saw mostly straight ticket voting with these 3) picked Obama/Corbett/Wagner, meaning they really had to have passionate feelings in the AG and Auditor races.  Sure Corbett and Wagner faced weak challengers, but given that voters aren't always well informed about down-ballot races (especially given how swamped PA was with Federal race ads), its quite astonishing.

    I think when i finish, and look at trends from 2004 to 2008 for State/Federal elections and look at 2007 & 2011 for local elections we won't be too surprised by the trends.  

    We also have hope for the future, as Republicans have flipped alot of what they could, but Dems will at some point take over Delaware county, another relatively big county in the Philly burbs

    •  PA has a lot of splitting of tickets and I would (4+ / 0-)

      love to see the trends for the past 35 years since I have been volunteering for Democrats in PA.

      I knew that was very common years ago and it is interesting it is still continuing.  Throw in the Casey name and how he absolutely crushed Santorum and those were not all D or I votes for sure.

      In 2008, Obama won PA by double digits. Some of those were Repub votes as I worked with some Republicans for Obama at our local office here. And they would go out and talk to other Republicans and conservative Independents.  They told me some they contacted said they would vote for Obama but Republican for the House.

      And there are Casey voters who would not usually vote for a Democrat but the family name carries a lot of weight.

    •  Also did you notice the Senate vs Gov race in PA? (5+ / 0-)

      Sestak only lost to Toomey but 2 pct but Corbett won by at least 10 pct.?  So there must have been a lot of people voting for Sestak for Senate but Corbett for Governor. What helped Corbett ( as he was just awful in the 3 debates I watched) is that no one saw the debates and Corbett was AG who busted a lot of elected officials for crimes.  

      Now we are stuck with Corbett who is a disaster and the man cannot string a sentence together, he really is an idiot.

      •  Onorato was a very bad candidate, too. n/t (5+ / 0-)

        But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

        by Rich in PA on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 06:57:46 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  And Corbett was strong (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

          I'm not sure Rendell even would have held him off.  So, in a way, I'm glad we didn't waste a good candidate in 2010 Guv race like Allison Schwartz.

          •  She's going to run for Governor? (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TofG, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

            20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

            by ndrwmls10 on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 07:08:38 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  People have mentioned her (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              wishingwell, Setsuna Mudo, TofG, MichaelNY

              I'm more concerned on getting Pat Murphy in as AG in 2012.  We'd then have a strong candidate for 2018.  I sure hope the Obama campaign encourages straight ticket voting in Philly in 2012, Murphy needs to win AG and can't afford 50K undervotes in Philadelphia county.

              •  Or it's been mentioned Sen. Casey may go for Gov (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                TofG, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY, wishingwell

                which gives Murphy a great chance to run for Senate.

              •  Correct about Murphy. AG has been a path to (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                governor, and he'd be the first Democrat as AG. Plus there is that numerology thing as regards Pa. governor.
                (Cue twilight zone music).

                http://youtu.be/...

                •  He's the future (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  TofG, Setsuna Mudo, James Allen, MichaelNY

                  I actually like him more than Sestak slightly, though both play well enough statewide.  Sestak had a bite at the apple and deserves another shot in a different race if there isn't something better, but he didn't inspire the Philadelphia vote.  

                  Hopefully Obama implicitly/explicitly supports Murphy, this is a big deal.  Murphy can out-perform Obama in West PA by a bit I'd imagine but needs to take Obama's coattails in SEPA and NEPA, where applicable.

                  •  plus sestak defended paterno (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    so he's basically dead to me

                    18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

                    by jncca on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 11:53:02 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  What was his defense? n/t (0+ / 0-)

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 07:41:08 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Probably what myself and my sister said (0+ / 0-)

                        There was no excuse for his behavior but we believed the board of trustees acted too quickly and that Paterno became the scapegoat for all the other people involved in this. McQueary is on paid leave and the AD is arrested and out on bail, and on paid leave. JoePA is fired.

                        We want a clean sweep, everyone gone in that department..if Joe goes, they all go..clean sweep now.

                        If they are clean house, then clean house.

                        Maybe that is what Sestak meant..

                        I do not like the half ass measures..Clean House..then Clean House all the way.

                        •  I'm not too sympathetic to that point of view (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          jncca

                          Since he knew about it and he was the Head Coach, he goes. Yes, everyone else who knew about it and didn't do anything to stop it or call the police should also be fired, but that doesn't make me the least bit sympathetic to Paterno, under the circumstances.

                          But the thing is, it doesn't sound like you actually know what Sestak's defense was. You say maybe he meant the same thing as your opinion. But what did he say?

                          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                          by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 10:15:42 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  comparing him to qaddafi (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, wishingwell

                            “On the other hand we are not like Libya, where they had Gadhafi and they meted out justice in the middle of the night. Due justice, but the way they did it. And so I watched the board of trustees, after a couple hours, in the middle of the night do the firing,”

                            This is from The Daily Caller, but I don't think they'd manufacture a quote, so I'm trusting it.

                            18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

                            by jncca on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 11:20:42 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Hmmm (0+ / 0-)

                            I'm not sure whether I should trust Daily Caller or not.

                            If he said that, it's pretty outrageous. But the thing is, Sestak is prone to sounding off. I think it's a weakness, but I don't think it's something bad enough that I'd want a Republican to beat him. On the other hand, if I had a vote in a Democratic primary in Pennsylvania, I'd have to take into account what this kind of half-cocked (oy, terrible expression in context!) talk says about his strength or weakness as a candidate and member of a deliberative body.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 11:37:50 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I admit, I am too close to this as I know (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            several of the people personally and one of them since we were 12 years old. I am also friends with a few of the former players. 2 of my very close friends have kids who play on the football team.

                            So I am very, very biased, I admit that.

                            I am seeing things through a very different lens and different angle altogether..I admit that.

                          •  I'm tipping you for honesty (0+ / 0-)

                            My feeling is there is hardly any crime that's worse than raping a child, and while I don't actually support capital punishment, on an emotional basis, I think people who rape children deserve to be beaten to death or be killed in some other horrific fashion.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 07:30:50 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                  •  I think if Sestak had run in a Presidential year (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, bumiputera, James Allen

                    and if that seat had been open in a Presidential election year, he would have won as he only lost by 2 pct..that is not bad at all considering the fiasco of 2010.

            •  She seems like a good candidate (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              TofG, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY, wishingwell

              she won 56-44 when candidates in similar districts (eg Gerry Connolly) barely hung on.

              21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

              by sapelcovits on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 08:40:46 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Weak opponent (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                She ironically didn't get a serious opponent in 2010.  Nearly every other Dem did, especially in the burbs, but this seat is just D enough to avert serious challengers, in its current form.

                I can't imagine she could win a primary against Casey or Nutter, though I'm not certain either will run.  I can't honestly say I know anything memorable about her.  Maybe she is like Ted Strickland, who I didn't know anything about but who turned out to be decent and a good campaigner.

      •  I did, but we knew that would happen (6+ / 0-)

        I think Sestak outperformed Onorato in every county in the state, proving how awful he was.  then again, Corbett probably would have beaten any Democrat not named Rendell and even then it might have been close.

        I also think there's something to be said for voting for someone you've voted before.  In 2008, 3M people voted for Corbett for AG.  Its apparently name rec plus comfort with voting for people.  Plus the AG position, in any state really, is the perfect springboard to governor.

        Some other things I was looking at last night:
        1. Mercer county, we saw that one coming in how Dahlkemper lost in 2010.
        2.  Lancaster county, worries me going forward, its tacking hard right.  I'm also amazed at how strong Charlie Dent is in Lehigh, I know he's been there a while, but in 2008 each statewide Dem won Lehigh by 10-25K votes, but Dent won it by 25K votes.  There is some serious love for Dent in Lehigh, and with its trend seen in 2010, looks lost unless someone who can dent Dent's hold on it shows up (dent Dent pun totally intended).
        3.  In general, the GOP wave hasn't abetted as much in PA as OH or WI because Corbett hasn't over-stepped nearly as much as Walker/Kasich.  I know people bristle at the thought, but Corbett could be a serious contender in 2016 with the moderate wing of the GOP (I honestly expect a more organized primary in 2016 from the GOP).  If nothing else he's a strong VP pick to make PA truly competitive.

    •  I'm in one of those D-to-R counties... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ...and I can tell you it's all about the individual candidates.  To be honest, if I didn't hate Republicans (and I do--I don't have any reservations about saying it) I would have voted for them over the Democrats, whom I don't consider entirely serious people.

      But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

      by Rich in PA on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 06:57:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  do you know those are the same voters? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

      In many parts of the country large numbers of Republicans didn't turn out in 2008, and large numbers of Democrats didn't in 2010, so to a large extent that could be different voters turning out.

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 08:48:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  David, you have "singed" where you should have (4+ / 0-)

    "signed"...

    FYI.

    Thanks for doing the daily digest, BTW.  Nice work and it is really appreciated.

    Happy little moron, Lucky little man.
    I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!
    —Spike Milligan

    by polecat on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 06:37:16 AM PST

  •  people are spending (8+ / 0-)

    My wife and I have bought a new refrigerator, dishwasher and just put in a new kitchen floor. these are all things we were putting off for quite a few years waiting to see if my company would be able to survive.
    Unless Europe collapses I think the American economy will slowly get better the next year but Obama will still have to get re-elected with the highest unemployment in modern history.

  •  WI Sen: GOP Eric Hovde close to announcing (4+ / 0-)

    Eric Hovde, who never worked a real job in his silver spoon life, now wants to be the next Senator from the state of Wisconsin, because, he is really really rich and Daddy has never told him no in his entire life.

    Link: http://dc.wispolitics.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 08:51:53 AM PST

    •  who would he take votes from? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 09:13:03 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Interesting question (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        His father was very active building and financing the building of homes in and around Dane County, in the 1980s on into the 1990s I believe.  I still can visualize the Don Hovde signs.

        My impression is Hovde is more likely to appeal to real estate and finance interests rather than geographical neighborhoods in the state.  So he might drain contributions from Neumann as a result.  

        But Hovde is a political unknown to even me.  I know more about the father than the son unfortunately.  So I hesitate to guess what wing of the GOP Hovde might appeal to ideologically, though Chamber of Commerce conservative would be my best guess.

        As Hovde gets more serious about running i will focus on pinning down what exactly motivates him, other than he wants it and he is rich.

        "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

        by walja on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 09:56:33 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Regarding the Walker poll (6+ / 0-)

    I'm not as skeptical about the St. Norbert's poll. The recent special GOP jobs sessions made Walker and his fellow Republicans look really bad, because it had very little to do with jobs and everything to do with pushing right-wing social issues. Pushing abstinence only, more gun worship, trying to change the recall rules, more Voter ID nonsense, gutting consumer protections--every day was another eyeroller, and people noticed.

    On the economic side, Wisconsin's unemployment rate has gone up since he was elected. It was just announced that tens of thousands of children are going to lose health care and parents are hearing about the real consequences of education "reform". Working class people who voted for Walker are turning on him. A month ago I was feeling pessimistic about the recall, but now I like our chances.

    •  Also looking like they were trying to rig the game (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      scribeboy, MichaelNY

      With Lazich trying to bring forward the Senate redistricting and the make-recallers-find-huge-numbers-of-notaries-at-next-to-zero-notice which all came out at the start of the fielding period for the St Norbert/WPR poll.

      For this and the reasons you mention I can well imagine a drop in Walker support among Republicans.  24% though is a lot, but given that they'll have been interviewing ~200 Republicans in their sample this does rather suggest that the fraction of Republicans for recall is rather higher than the 7% or so we've seen to date (sqrt(200 x .07 x .93) ~ 3.6, so to get 48 in your sample when the underlying population would suggest the sampled number is more than 9 standard deviations away from the expected 14.  An underlying 7% just seems so incompatible with this poll.  15% maybe, but 7% just no.  And 15% is plenty enough to sink Walker.

      However, I haven't seen any crosstabs so can't know for sure what they were up to.

  •  CO reapportionment/redistricting challenges (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    The main complaint about Colorado's legislative reapportionment was the split of Jefferson County, though other counties were also "excessively" split in the new map, and considering that the Congressional map has fewer county splits than the legislative map, that seems to be a reasonable ruling.  The reapportionment commission has until December 6 to present a new map to the court - no word on how the commission will tackle the task.

    The GOP really didn't have much to lose with a challenge to the Congressional map, though.  The chances of a court drawing a more favorable map for Dems are slim.  The challenge from the GOP is likely to center around the amount of change from the current map, along with a couple of areas where counties are split.  Considering that the new map has fewer county splits than the current (and future GOP) maps, any challenge on splitting communities of interest or counties is IMHO likely to fall on its face.  I don't see the Colorado Supreme Court ruling for the GOP at the Congressional level.

    Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves. - William Pitt

    by Phoenix Rising on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 09:42:42 AM PST

    •  county splits (6+ / 0-)

      You have to remember that in Colorado cities can span more than one county, so that either a county split or a city split may be necessary.

      I remember when I lived in Aurora it was in both Adams and Arapahoe counties, and I read in a blog here recently that it is now in a third county.

      So one of the county splits was necessary to include the portion of Aurora in Douglas county in with the rest of Aurora

      •  This is the other factor (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        against a Congressional court ruling in the GOP's favor.  Of the counties with a Congressional district split, most of them either served community of interest goals (e.g. the inclusion of northern Park county in CO-02) or the goal of including an entire city in a single district (e.g. Aurora in CO-06).

        Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves. - William Pitt

        by Phoenix Rising on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 09:57:12 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Will you please stop using the term Democrat-Contr (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG

    In your MA Redistricting you say sailed though the Democrat-Controlled House, It is the Democratic-Controlled House as the party is the Democratic Party not the Republican branded Democrat Party. I know this seems petty but really too many progressives are now adopting this irritating Republican language for our party.

    •  I don't agree with this (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, SoCalGal23

      It's controlled by Democrats, so it's Democrat-controlled. An adjective can't control anything, and in the phrase "Democratic Party," the word "Democratic" is an adjective modifying the noun "Party."

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 07:52:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Your respense really supports the Republicans use (0+ / 0-)

        When referring to a chambers controlled it is controlled by members of the Democratic Party or it is controlled by Democrats, it is never controlled by Democrat. In future please try and be more sensitive to this on going battle with Mr Lunt and his Republican talking points instead of splitting hairs internally over parts of speech.

        •  Sensitive, shmensitive (0+ / 0-)

          I believe in proper usage of the English language. If a legislature is controlled by Republicans, it's Republican-controlled - not "Republicans-controlled" or something - and if it's controlled by Democrats, it's Democrat-controlled - again, because it's ungrammatical for it to be called "Democrats-controlled."

          This has nothing to do with Republican misusage of "Democrat" as an adjective modifying "Party."

          And more importantly (if anything at all is important about this discussion), you won't win and won't get everyone to agree to a new usage of "Democratic-controlled." There is a time to give up on, as you say, splitting hairs.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 20, 2011 at 08:48:44 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

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