Wherein we sketch out how the question "What will the future be like?" chances with the passing of time. We've seeing the past and the present-era changes, from the time of Jules Verne to now. What's coming up? I don't know... but I d know that in the future, even our dreams (and dreads) will be different.
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Artists’ dreams of the future is very much informed by awareness of current events, the themes good and bad that promise to improve (or disfigure) our lives. While there is a rigorous scientific meter to what is possible, what is possible to dream about is given wider rein. However, the percussion of progress (and regress), the drumbeat of time as it is and yet could be, is something that can be measured even from afar – we can look into the past a century or two and see how while the concept of submarines had been around for centuries (as in, since about 1620) it would be some time ( as in a couple of centuries) before true submarines (like the U.S.S. Alligator and the Huntley) appeared – and half a century more before submarines were threats to surface shipping (and each other).
Jules Verne, in 1870 published his classic “Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea”; there were working submarines by then – just not very fast or especially impressive ones. However, he saw the potential in these mechanical divers of the deep, along with many other emerging advances including air travel, space travel and, why not, travel deep into the Earth (though that latter domain remains more inaccessible than the surfaces of distant worlds at this stage).
There are, of course, the impossible journeys as well – like H.G. Wells’ “The Time Machine”, published in 1895 or, of course the 1898 classic, “The War of the Worlds”. However, “War of the Worlds” was sensible about gas warfare. And, here, there is a similar pattern. Leonardo da Vinci speculated on the value of launching poisons “in the form of powder on galleys. Chalk, fine sulfide of arsenic, and powdered verdigris may be thrown among enemy ships by means of small mangonels, and all those who, as they breathe, inhale the powder into their lungs will become asphyxiated.” That commentary hails from the 1400s. In 1675, the French and German states concluded the Strasbourg Agreement, including an article to ban the use of perfidious and toxic devices.
For the next two centuries, armies would chafe at the restrictions but it is only in the late 1800s that generations of prejudice against use of poisons in warfare was set aside – new methods of generating and delivering the toxins were too appealing to resist. To no small degree, “War of the Worlds” was a cautionary tale – against the monster of gas warfare. Wells wrote a screenplay based on a later book, “Things to Come,” which hammers home to dangers of both gas and biological warfare. Both were well-weaponized options by the dawn of the 20th century, horrors that surely no sane society would ever use.
They were, of course, used. Ditto, nuclear weapons – and yet the world lingers still.
What do we dream of now? What dreads populate our nightmares?
Some of the dreams have been with us a while. Space travel, immortality, eternal youth (a different thing altogether), super powers, prescience, contact with (or creation of) other intelligences, peering behind the veil in a million different ways.
I think of the stories I read as a child - I mean the science fiction stories, here. "The Mote in God's Eye" by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle was about first contact. It was also about recovering from downfall - the human society of the story was the successor to not just one but two holocausts, its nearest thing to the historical cycles that plagued the eponymous Moties, the aliens of the story who were genetically locked into cycles of devastation and reconstruction. Humanity's apocalypses were voluntary. How wonderful for us. This tale is vintage 1970s.
Moving along to the 1980s, I would have to site David Brin's "Startide Rising" as the most memorable. It was an anti-Star Trek universe - the cosmos was chock full of life - and it was all vastly more capable than Humanity, and generally unmoved by appeals to their better angels. The Galactics, as they were called, were mostly ... indifferent. The ones that were exercised by Humanity's presence in the cosmos were almost all hostile to the newcomers. The few that were... weren't a lot of help. The primary themes were ecological responsibility - and competition, taken to an ultra-sentient level. This is an overpopulated universe, an overpopulated Earth taken to the galactic scale - and its a tense, dangerous place about to go supernova. Sequels to "Startide" fill out some but not all of the details - that the very powerful alien civilizations are little bullies compared to the big dogs farther up the food chain... and these entities have entities above them. There's always a bigger xenofish, if you will.
So... we come to the 1990s, and perhaps one of the most impressive future worlds visions of all - Dan Simmons' "Hyperion Cantos". This is the 30th century, the world of the Hegemony, a hyper-extension of our culture taken to its conclusion - and the conclusion is that we are inventing our enemies in a war that will last deep into the future. In this vision, Earth has been destroyed, collapsed into a black hole which has one redeeming feature - it powers an immense web (the Worldweb) of instant transportation corridors called farcasters that unite hundreds of worlds. You step through a gate from one planet and time of day to another, with a completely different gravity, air temperature and pressure and of course time of day. And people are cool with it. It's a decadent civilization, hectic, always trying to forget two things - its own dead heart.. and the suspicion that the AIs, the parallel civilization that keep everything running, had something to do with it dying. Throw all this suppressed angst into chaos with the appearance of The Shrike, a cyborg of immense power and inscrutable motive, an avatar of blood and nano-sharp blades from the distant future. Is it here to slaughter Humanty in its infancy, before it is a threat to the future Ultimate Intelligence, the godlike descendant of the AIs? Or is it, sharp knives and all, Humanity's savior? Or is it just really, really weird? And this is the iconic far future vision of the 1990s - that we might exist on.... not realizing we had killed something important in ourselves long before.
And, now we come to the 2000s...and Neil Stephenson's "Anathem", a vision of a completely different Earth, a thought experiment in the implications of technology without instrumentation - something that is implied by quantum physics. The world of Arbre is incredibly ancient, much older than our own, a civilization that has learned, after many devastations, one answer to the question of how to continue to pursuit of pure research and philosophy while controlling the dangers - by, basically, keeping the most capable, trainable minds on hold until the 'Saecular Order' needs them like, say, when an asteroid might show up and threaten to wipe everything out. It's a society where the genies not only stay in their bottles - they like it there. A lot. Toss into the mix the arrival of a transdimensional starship, carrying representatives of four other races (including Earth on a previous visit, called an Advent) and you got yourself a fun story that explores the most awesome aliens of all - ourselves... give or take a few universes. Woo.
And here we are in the 2010s. What can we tell about this progression... aside from it is highly subjective, extremely selective and incomplete and, yes, I could have just as easily gone with Ursula K Leguin, Anne McAffrey, Margaret Atwood and Sherri Tepper for the girl power...and I will leave that for another tale.
SO, what stories to write now? What visions, what dreams dark and bright? Taking a cue from the movies, robots are very much en vogue - both as heroes and as villains. Space travel's always big. Yet there is also a VR sophistication, as well. Readers are savvy to themes involving quantum splits, artificial intelligence and post-mechanical technologies. There are many questions about post-humanism and transhumanism - at what point is there one enhancement too many for a upgraded person to still be called 'human'? When they no longer want to be? Is the subjective premise valid? And of course issues of alienation and connectivity and how all of ... this here... this exocortical phenomenon where a person (waves) is using multiple sources and spreadsheets and an online word processor to convey a story to friends and readers scattered across the planet? My thoughts are in numerous places. The resources to drive an entire college of yesteryear are trivially perused for a few points It is actually HARD not to write with weblinks...
...which is why this essay has not one of them. To point out that, yep, I missed them, too.
And now, on to the Top Comments which, I assure you, will have LOTS of linky goodness. :)
And Now For the TOP COMMENTS!!!!
emmasmacker provides This riddle, complete with a very complete answer from LaEscapee:
How many DKos users does it take to change a lightbulb?
1 to change the light bulb and to post that the light bulb has been changed.
14 to share similar experiences of changing light bulbs and how the light bulb could have been changed differently.
6 to argue over whether it's "lightbulb" or "light bulb"...another 6 to condemn those 6 as anal-retentive.
2 industry professionals to inform the group that the proper term is "lamp".
15 know-it-alls who claim they were in the industry, and that "light bulb" is perfectly correct.
203 to demand that cross posting to hardware forum, off-topic forum, and lightbulb group about changing light bulbs be stopped.
109 to post that this group is not about light bulbs and to please take this discussion to a lightbulb site.
12 to post to the group that they will no longer post because they cannot handle the light bulb controversy.
4 to suggest that posters request the light bulb FAQ.
44 to ask what is a "FAQ".
143 to say "do a Google search on light bulbs before posting questions about light bulbs".
1 lurker to respond to the original post 6 months from now and start it all over again.
Every government is run by liars and nothing they say should be believed~I.F. Stone
by LaEscapee on Mon Nov 21, 2011 at 09:06:49 AM EST
love, emmasnacker
BelindaRidgewood finds it...
...hard to imagine that no one has yet submitted this comment by weatherdude and its ensuing thread as a top comment. A Jeff Lieber diary always brings out the best/worst snark.
JanF says smileycreek has a strategy to help disgruntled Democrats get on board for the crucial elections next year.
thought the thread in question starts here, with a discussion of Meteor Blades and his awesome kung fu
It wasn't so much a single response as an approach.
For one thing, he entirely avoided the whole Obama rocks/Obama sux vortex. It was, Yeah, a lot of people feel like you do about Obama and then he turned it into a more general discussion, both philosophical and practical, about what it means to have any Democrat-- even one as awful as LBJ -- in the office compared to any Republican.
You know, the old, "I'll give you two words: Supreme Court." But, more than that, an acknowledgement that no matter how imperfect any particular vessel is, it is still having power, and so far there is no other way to hold power in shaping the future. Every single major social or civil rights accomplishment in the past 60 years has come about under a Democratic president (repeal of DADT comes to mind). Even as awful as LBJ was (and MB should know!) look at the signature legislation that came out of his time in office.
When the person we were talking with then basically said, A pox on both their houses, they're both the same and I won't vote at all, or I'll vote third party, that was again treated with first, empathy, and second, naming it for what it is: a position staked on personal principle that,, while it may feel satisfying is, in effect, opting out of having any power or any influence whatsoever.
When the person then pivoted to, Then I'll just support OWS, that was also agreed with and acknowledged that great changes come about as a result of two things: Big social movements combined with big legislation. You need both, and again, there has not been a demonstrated means of holding power within the system as it is without those two forces working together.
Ok, so I maybe didn't do a good job of transcribing this, but I do think the key approach here was not letting the discussion focus around Obama good/Obama bad, but elevating it to considering progressive principles and how to achieve them given the reality we inhabit. Not once did it have to be pointed out how batshit crazy the other side is currently is; we already know that. It assumes we are working on the same side and have to keep moving forward.
I would not say this person was convinced, but there was mutual respect and, as dragon said above, it's about planting seeds.
Here's what I think: People let their emotional let-down over Obama color their thinking, and it seems they talk themselves into a box they can't get out of: Now that I've expressed my disappointment with the man it wouldn't be consistent to support him; I already feel I've been played as a fool and would be a greater fool to extend myself to get hurt or be wrong again. But it's not about him. It's about what we as Democrats and progressives need to keep doing to push human progress just a little further down the road in our lifetimes.
Next up is Julie Gulden (ONOZ!)
this comment by maggiejean (well, actually it's a photograph) was a fine contribution to our discussion of cranberry sauce with rosemary. In today's J Town diary.
Dragon5616 says hai!!!
Here's a winning photo comment from Trix in Clarknt67's rec-listed photo post Best Thing on the Internet Today....
This would be Trix, self-declared best all-time commenter ever. :)
And now for the TOP MOJO
From the future-visionary awesomeness that is mik :)
1) I hope everyone realizes that the ONLY REASON by mumtaznepal — 196
2) I know right? by indiemcemopants — 166
3) Auuuuuggghhhhhh by jpmassar — 155
4) {{{{{{{indiemcemopants}}}}} by Sara R — 155
5) I'm Really Sorry to Hear by JekyllnHyde — 147
6) I don't see disdain: I see witnessing. by means are the ends — 144
7) Do me a favor. by Lightbulb — 141
8) Wow I would be by indiemcemopants — 138
9) That isn't in the Constitution, but this is: by deepsouthdoug — 122
10) This belongs on the front page by Denver11 — 121
11) I saw that. It was disgusting. by frustrated1 — 110
12) This boggles the mind: by flitedocnm — 103
13) Stop. by Aji — 103
14) Community can certainly help with by Sara R — 103
15) My belief is that it was intentional by mahakali overdrive — 101
16) Walk of Shame by smith — 100
17) If the students and other protestors were by Remediator — 100
18) but it's a little known pseudo-fact by sodalis — 99
19) They weren't in a street. by Bob Johnson — 95
20) A scene from a true police state by montecristo — 95
21) Actually, Newt's bizzaro statement will only help by cany — 95
22) Once again the man makes me vomit by boophus — 93
23) Poor kids don't have enough obstacles by CatM — 91
24) Thanks, this place by indiemcemopants — 91
25) Sure, if they want/need to be assholes. by Bob Johnson — 86
26) "So help me God" is customary, but you're right, by Kimball Cross — 86
27) To those who were too young by denise b — 84
28) I refuse to go shopping on Black Friday by yg17 — 81
29) To me, conservatives sound mean, mean spirited by oldcrow — 78
30) Agreed. Citizen journalism is saving this country by msblucow — 77
31) These were hardly rogue cops by mahakali overdrive — 77
32) The country turned sharply right by atana — 77