Let's get something out of the way. The Republican nominee for president in 2012 is going to be Mitt Romney.
Yes, yes, I know Newt Gingrich is currently the asshole du jour in God's Country, but it ain't gonna happen. Do I really have to list the reasons? Really?
sighs
Okay fine.
One, he's got no organization. That shouldn't be surprising, since he wasn't really running for president. No more than Herman Cain was. Instead the two of them were both running for the money. All they were looking for when they got into this race was to get better book deals, jack up their speaking and "consulting" fees, and bolster their negotiating positions the next time their contracts were up with Excellence in Broadcasting or Fox News. They were vanity campaigns, nothing more. In Newt's case at least, his ego is big enough that sure, he might have gotten it into his head that he might actually be able to do this thing. But no, he can't. Serious candidates need serious organizations, not book signings. Those snappy debate performances may make you a media darling, but they don't necessarily get people to the polls. But Newt knows that. This ain't his first rodeo.
Two, everyone hates him. And I mean EVERYONE. It's a good thing Newt Gingrich loves himself so much, because nobody else seems to. Lest we forget, this is the man who, a mere four years after winning back control of Congress after four decades, was couped by his own party. The powers that be in the GOP (hey that kind of rhymes) cannot stand him. The Christian conservatives loathe him for his marital infidelities and the very un-Christian way he ended his first two marriages (by handing his wives divorce papers while they were in the hospital, in case you didn't know). Moderate, middle-of-the-road voters (you know, the ones that elect presidents?) hate him because he's an angry, condescending, know-it-all prig, and liberals hate him because he's fucking Newt Gingrich. His party won't nominate him, and even if they did the country wouldn't elect him.
Three, his name is "Newt." Little known fact: It is impossible for someone named "Newt" to be elected President of the United States. Someone should call Snapple.
Seriously, though, Newt Gingrich is just the latest in the He Ain't Mitt pageant ("There he is, Mr. America..."). His rise has been fueled by his dynamic debate performances and Herman Cain's penchant for sexually harassing subordinates. There is a faction within the nutjob community positively frothing at the mouth at the prospect of Gingrich debating President Obama (whom they believe to be some masterful über-debater, despite a record of debate performances that is mixed at best). And I admit the idea of a Republican candidate who has a command of basic facts and can string together not just one but several cogent and grammatically correct sentences in a row is a rare and exciting phenomenon (like seeing a unicorn!), it's a pipe dream. Newt Gingrich will never stand under the balloon drop on that convention stage.
Mitt Romney is inevitable. The only person with any chance of stopping him was Rick Perry, but the Texas governor has managed to futz and fumble and oops his way out of that possibility. Once the number one contender, he is now reduced to a funny footnote in presidential history tomes like The Glorious Burden (an outstanding volume of presidential election history, by the way, if you're into that sort of thing). At least Gingrich, Cain, Paul, and Bachmann will be there to keep him company. Jon Huntsman won't even have that.
Why Mitt Romney? For lots of reasons. For one thing, he is the next white guy in line in the party that always nominates the next white guy in line. Seriously. You want to know the real difference between the Republican and Democratic parties when it comes to nominating presidents? Predictability. The Republican party almost always nominates the guy who everyone thinks it will nominate a year before the election. The Democrats never do (just ask Gary Hart, Mario Cuomo, Howard Dean, and Hillary Clinton). This year it's Mitt's turn.
Romney has spent the last four years prostrating himself before the dark lords of the Republican party, convincing him that he is their man. That he happens to be Wall Street's guy doesn't hurt, either. He has even kissed the ring of James Dobson, kingmaker and de facto high priest of the Christian conservative movement, and gotten the nod of approval. Romney's made the rounds, and he's got the nod.
He has more money and more organization than the rest of the field combined. He's maintained a steady position at or near the front of the polls throughout the rises and falls of many a competitor, his numbers barely flickering. More importantly, he is ahead or statistically tied in all of the first four contest states, two (New Hampshire and Florida) by comfortable margins last I checked. From there, the calendar is incredibly Romney-friendly: Nevada (lots of Mormons), Maine (same near-home New England advantage as in New Hampshire), Colorado (more Mormons), Minnesota, Arizona (Mormons again, plus lots of people who appreciate a man who looks good in a golf shirt), Michigan (where he was raised and his father was a popular governor), and Washington. In fact, looking at that list it's not hard to conclude that it was specifically written to favor Mitt Romney. There may be something to that. But either way, it's very possible that we will go into Super Tuesday in early March with Romney having won every primary and caucus to that point. How many of his opponents will even remain by then?
And finally there is what I call the plausibility factor. As entertaining as people like Michelle Bachmann and Donald Trump and Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich can be, few people really see them as realistic possibilities to be president. Call it instinct. Call it a vibe. Call it bullshit if you want. But when I look at the current Republican field, I see only three men who I could reasonably imagine as president: Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, and Jon Huntsman. And even Perry is now off the list, having become a punchline. That leaves Huntsman, whose single-digit (that digit being usually 1 or sometimes even merely "-") showing in the polls just goes to prove that there is no room for moderates in the Republican party any more. I guess he thought there would be a niche in the race for a blandly handsome Mormon ex-governor. And he was right, there was. But somebody else got it first. And seriously, who wants to see Livingston Taylor if James Taylor's in town?
Barring some completely out of the blue, deus ex machina revelation (like he's secretly the meth kingpin of Albuquerque; yeah, I've been watching a lot of Breaking Bad lately), Mitt Romney is a shoe-in for the nomination. Given how closely scrutinized and well-publicized Romney's life has been, that seems unlikely in the extreme. Otherwise the deal is done. It's gonna be Mitt.
The White House knows this. That's why they're already running against him. The media knows it too, but they have papers to sell (figuratively of course -- does anyone actually read physical newspapers any more?), and crazy sells better than inevitable.
So yeah, Mitt Romney. The only question is who he will pick as his running mate. The name Marco Rubio gets thrown around a lot, but I don't think so. He can't guarantee Florida (he won his senate seat with less than 50% of the vote, after all), and, more importantly, he's not evangelical. Well, maybe not evangelical enough would be a better way to put it. Rubio attends an evangelical church but he also maintains strong ties to Catholicism. With a Mormon heading the ticket, the GOP's tolerance for diversity will have been reached, I think. They're gonna want a strong evangelical running mate. That was probably part of the deal when they got Dobson's tacit approval. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if Romney's been given a list of names. Personally, my money's on John Thune.
I even have a slogan for them: "Romney/Thune. We're handsome white men!"