This round of redistricting has seen Iowa lose a congressional district and from 2013 it will be represented by only four congressmembers, which will be the least amount of representation it has had since since the civil war.
Behind this lies decades of slow growth and rural depopulation that has seen seats taken from Iowa and predominantly given to western states. Since 1920 Iowa's population has grown from around 2.4 million to just over 3 million, whilst the population of America as a whole has more than tripled in this period.
Iowa's decline in congressional representation is therefore no surprise. But what if, instead of taking districts away from Iowa, the House had been expanded enough to allow it to keep its seats? Such a system would certainly be unusual, but there is precedent. Canadian law guarantees each province an amount of seats no fewer than what they had in 1982.
Were such a provision to be applied retroactively in America, Iowa would have eleven districts, the amount it had up until the 1930s. This would require the House to have 1064 seats.
None of this is at all likely, of course, but there's been a long tradition of far-fetched hypotheticals at SSP and DKE, so I offer this up as a new variant.
All Iowa congressional district maps are available at the rather wonderful Iowa congressional district maps, 1847-2012.
I decided to use the last eleven-district map as the basis for this exercise. Unfortunately, this was a rather ugly-looking gerrymander from the mid-1880s, apparently designed to lock in Republican gains. Iowa then refused to reapportion again until the 1930s, meaning that the 10th and 11th districts both had more than 100,000 more inhabitants than the 1st district.
Settlement patterns have changed somewhat in the past eighty years, however. Whilst the 11th district would be only around 8,000 over the target figure of 276,941, all the other seats would be heavily out of kilter. The 7th district, which was then comprised of Dallas, Madison, Marion, Polk, Story and Warren, would come up only just short of 700,000 inhabitants, whilst the 8th district, based around the southern tier of counties, would have less than 100,000 inhabitants.
Nevertheless, by amalgamating some of the smaller districts, carving out an urban Des Moines district and some judicious swapping of counties, I've managed to use this map to make eleven districts that appear to me to constitute reasonably coherent communities.
I've followed standard Iowa redistricting practice and not split any counties except Polk, which cannot be avoided here. Population deviation is nowhere more than 1% above or below the target, and except for the 9th district all are within 0.4% of the target.
Here's the overall map:
IA-1 (Blue)
Obama: 59.86% McCain: 38.12%
White by VAP: 88.5%
Rating: Safe D
This district begins in south-east Iowa around the Mississippi river, before proceeding along US route 218 to Iowa City. Just under half the district's population is located in Johnson County, so there is a decent chance its representative would come from there.
Whoever the representative might be, he or she would be a Democrat. Even in 2010 Culver beat Branstad by around 10,000 votes, whilst Kerry's margin in 2004 was twice that.
IA-2 (Green)
Obama: 57.76% McCain: 40.87%
White by VAP: 88.4%
Rating: Likely D
This district is made up of four counties along the Mississippi river. The major settlements within it are Muscatine, the Quad Cities and Clinton. It normally favours Democrats, but not by as much as IA-1. It voted for Kerry by a comfortable but not overwhelming 8,500 votes, but Branstad won it last year by just over 5,000 votes.
In a normal year, however, Democrats ought to be fairly confident of winning this, perhaps with a legislator like State Senator Joe Seng.
IA-3 (Purple)
Obama: 58.55% McCain: 39.99%
White by VAP: 91.7%
Rating: Safe D
This district begins in Dubuque in the east and heads along US Route 20 to Waterloo, finishing up in the conservative bastion of Grundy County. Most of the district is securely Democratic, however. Kerry's margin was about 12,000 votes and whilst Branstad won by 885 votes, in any year other than 2010 Democrats ought not to face too many problems.
Bruce Braley currently resides here and with him as incumbent, this one can probably be considered safe for the good guys.
IA-4 (Red)
Obama: 55.83% McCain: 42.53%
White by VAP: 95.9%
Rating: Toss-up
Iowa's whitest district is made up of seventeen counties in north-eastern Iowa. It's predominantly rural and Mason City is the only settlement of any notable size. This part of Iowa saw a hefty swing to Obama but (according to my back of the envelope maths) favoured Bush by 500 votes over Kerry. Branstad won all but one county here, although it's worth noting that his family hails from the west of the district.
Based on the long-term trend, you could call this lean D. Based on the chance Tom Latham might move back to run in the district, you could call this lean R. I decided to split the difference.
IA-5 (Yellow)
Obama: 58.44% McCain: 40.04%
White by VAP: 93.0%
Rating: Safe D
This is, more or less, the Cedar Rapids district. It extends out to three other counties, but Linn County contains over 75% of the district's inhabitants.
Dave Loebsack lives here and I would expect him to win this district, which voted for Culver by 772 votes.
IA-6 (Teal)
Obama: 49.89% McCain: 48.05%
White by VAP: 93.4%
Rating: Likely R
This district consists of a substantial chunk of south-central Iowa, including Marshalltown, Ottumwa and the Des Moines exurban counties of Jasper and Marion. It generally favours Republicans and Bush scored a hefty victory here in 2004, but Obama in 2008 and Culver in 2006 both recorded narrow victories here and there is some down-ballot strength.
In a neutral year, however, it ought to favour a Republican, probably Mariannette Miller-Meeks.
IA-7 (Grey)
Obama: 47.32% McCain: 50.94%
White by VAP: 93.5%
Rating: Likely R
Whilst the Iowa Code forbids the splitting of counties in congressional maps, Polk County is too large for one congressional district in this hypothetical by more than 150,000 people. I've therefore combined outer areas of the county such as Ankeny, Urbandale and Altoona, with the usually reliably Republican counties of Dallas, Guthrie and Warren.
This is one of only three districts McCain won and the only Democrat who might have been remotely competitive here is Chet Culver in 2006, although as I didn't want to wade through Polk County's precinct records for that year I can't say for certain.
Absent a complete implosion, Republicans ought to win here, with the favourite probably being Boswell's 2010 opponent Brad Zaun.
IA-8 (Slate)
Obama: 62.11% McCain: 36.13%
White by VAP: 79.3% Black by VAP: 7.0% Hispanic by VAP: 8.0%
Rating: Safe D
This is the Des Moines urban district. As well as the capital, it also includes West Des Moines, Clive, Windsor Heights, Delaware, Pleasant Hill, Allen and Carlisle. It excludes all parts of those areas that extend across the border into Warren or Dallas counties.
Although still overwhelmingly white, this is the most racially mixed of the eleven districts. Democrats ought to win it going away. The only question is who would be the representative, as Boswell might very well face a primary challenge here.
IA-9 (Blue)
Obama: 46.78% McCain: 51.44%
White by VAP: 95.1%
Rating: Safe R
This is the south-western Iowa district. The major population centre is Council Bluffs, but it also includes Madison County, which is part of Des Moines' exurbs.
Whilst Democrats aren't entirely uncompetitive here, the area tends to favour Republicans by a fair margin. Democratic strength is primarily confined to Council Bluffs and some thinly populated counties in the south-east of the district.
Boswell used to reside here, in Decatur County, until 2002 and represented eight of the counties here. Unfortunately, those eight counties combine for only just over 60,000 inhabitants and it's therefore unlikely he could make this competitive, even if he wanted to.
IA-10 (Pink)
Obama: 52.65% McCain: 45.45%
White by VAP: 92.1%
Rating: Lean R
This north-central Iowa district is based upon two main axes. The first, heading north-south, is the Des Moines river. The second, passing east-west, is US Route 30 from Ames to Denison.
Ames and Fort Dodge are the major population centres here, and also the primary sources of Democratic strength, although Obama did manage to win 8 out of 11 counties here. It also voted handsomely for Culver, but Bush's margin was around 2,500 votes.
In a neutral year it's probably lean R, but it would be hotly contested and candidate quality would be important. In other words, we'd have a chance if they picked Steve King, but I suspect he'd prefer the 11th. Tom Latham also lives here and would be the more likely candidate. Hence lean R.
IA-11 (Chartreuse)
Obama: 40.73% McCain: 57.96%
White by VAP: 89.3% Hispanic by VAP: 6.8%
Rating: Safe R
There's really no sensible way to avoid drawing a north-western Iowa district in an eleven district configuration, and once you've done this it's impossible to avoid making a Republican vote sink. Tom Harkin won this district in 2008, but relying on a 25-point victory state wide is perhaps something less than a winning strategy.
Sioux City is the major population centre, and also the only source of Democratic strength, as Obama won it by around 2,500 votes on his way to a narrow defeat in Woodbury County. This is also the only place where there is a Democratic bench, although by 'bench' I mean one state rep. Steve King doesn't live here, but the district would be receptive to his brand of crazy.
So to recap:
4 Safe D (IA-1, IA-3, IA-5, IA-8)
1 Likely D (IA-2)
1 Toss-up (IA-4)
1 Lean R (IA-10)
2 Likely R (IA-6, IA-7)
2 Safe R (IA-9, IA-11)
This produces a 5-5-1 map, with slightly better prospects for the Democrats, which fits with Iowa's profile as a swing state with a slight tendency for prefer team blue.
Comments, criticisms, verbal abuse?