Short and simple, we have a federalism clash and a recalcitrant state legislature that is insulated from the will of the people.
Proposed Congressional Map
Racial breakdown
Florida's Constitution says;
SECTION 20.Standards for establishing congressional district boundaries. In establishing congressional district boundaries:
(a) No apportionment plan or individual district shall be drawn with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or an incumbent; and districts shall not be drawn with the intent or result of denying or abridging the equal opportunity of racial or language minorities to participate in the political process or to diminish their ability to elect representatives of their choice; and districts shall consist of contiguous territory.
(b) Unless compliance with the standards in this subsection conflicts with the standards in subsection 1(a) or with federal law, districts shall be as nearly equal in population as is practicable; districts shall be compact; and districts shall, where feasible, utilize existing political and geographical boundaries.
It is obvious that each incumbent is wholly within a newly drawn district. Corrine Brown's 3rd district is slimmed down and is more egregious looking than before, though it is less African American at just 48.9 VAP. It is very much a district that violates any standard of compactness. Its Jacksonville's shrinking urban core, bottle-necking into the St. John's river, flowing into the farm town of Palatka, reaping the Black section of College Town Gainesville in, moseying around into the depopulated Ocala National Forest, slipping out to poach the Black suburban town of Sanford, backing into the rural farm areas of Apopka, riding on the Florida Turnpike to the resort areas around Universal Studios. How the hell is this a community of interest? I understand that there is a compelling state interest in giving African American's a chance to vote for one of their own to office. The problem is here, is the 3rd district was not majority minority in its present form. The 3rd district should be held to strict scrutiny, no matter how hard the Legislature tries, it cannot be able to reach 50.1% African American by VAP (or even total African American) in this area. This district has no compactness, the areas included only have African American populations.
Sure is there Voting Rights Act considerations to be had? Yes, but think of the counterpart district in North Carolina, NC-13 occupied by Mel Watt, which is no longer protected by the Voting Rights Act as affirmed in Easley v Cromarie. The drawing of Mel's district is maintained in shape (much like the new FL-03) based upon partisan reasons over several revisions and affirmed in the newest incarnation is just a vote sink now. I am certain that Corrine Brown's district would have voted for Obama by 70%, the state could have shrugged off any race based gerrymandering claims by claiming the district is just a Democratic vote sink. Although the problem is the Fair Districts Amendment, it does not condone this district one bit; it is not compact and has the same general shape as the districts drawn for Corrine Brown in 1992, 1996, 2002--leaving me to believe that this district was drawn to cater for her.
One also needs to consider Georgia v Ashcroft in which it is affirmed that Blacks vote Democratic, and by ostentatiously packing African Americans into districts of their own, rather than allowing them the opportunity of a major influence in a district that could give them the franchise--is not retrogression. If the Orlando area had two urban focused districts, they could both be majority minority and constitute a influence district that would do more for minorities rather than a super-packed district that bleaches the other districts. This article by Dr. Daniel Smith sums it up quite nicely.
One other major cause for alarm here is the Tampa based 11th district of Kathy Castor. Kathy is a Progressive White Democrat. Her district is a Majority Minority District, and is based Section 5 county, Hillsborough. This district is more compact than the third, but not contiguous by land. The Fair Districts Amendment was drafted by people who were fed up with the egregious use of water contiguity and breaking apart communities of interest.
This district will likely stay in its incarnation if the issue of whether the Sunshine Skyway-Gandy Bridge that connects St. Petersburg to the rest of the district--counts as contiguity. The areas that are represented in the 11th are carved out in a way to maximize minority voting strength. The inclusion of St. Petersburg in the 11th, highly benefits whatever Republican that runs in the 10th district, currently held by the almost 81 year old Bill Young.
Including Bradenton in this district is only for racial reasons, as Bradenton is so far out of the core of Tampa (1 hour drive if you speed without traffic), it is not much of a population center in the district to even be able to elect someone to Congress, and lastly it helps Vern Buchanan the most. As Vern is susceptible to a bad GOP year and any Democratic votes will help his opponent narrow the gap on this GOP leaning district.
As for the new districts. The new 26, I will admit, I am pleased with this for the most part. The area around The Villages saw a large amount of growth by seniors in the area between Ocala, and Orlando area. This is a decent community of interest map that would seemingly not be a lock for Cliff Stearns as his previous 6th district represented Ocala-Gainesville-Jacksonville, or would it be a lock for Daniel Webster who has been an Orlando area politician for all of his career. This is an open seat that combines the lower portions of the former 6th and 8th. It is reasonably compact and is in the running for the oldest average age of a congressional district
The new 27th had to happen. The Republicans have a pseudo vote sink in place here. This district is East and South Orlando, Kissimmee, East Polk County that is a white plurality at 44% but a large 38% Hispanic bloc. This is a little bit of bravery as it seems to displace the Winter Park delegation (Winter Park is a suburb that is home to Congressmen Mica, Adams and Webster). The major population growth in the past decade was in this area, this was a good move by the legislature.
The other new districts. The 6th district, this is a district that if Gainesville was fully included would be ideal. This district is a Republican district and will likely not change much unless the 3rd district is made more Jacksonville centric and would have Ander Crenshaw's new 4th expand into its former territory.
Back to Black. Alcee Hastings' 23rd is illegal, much akin to Corrine Brown's 3rd. It easily is done just to create an African American district at 50.3%. As much as it seems like I am against African Americans having districts, I am not, but they escape feasibility. The simple analysis of Florida's demographics would tell you that 16% of the population should get 4 seats, this would be easier if the races were completely segregated--but they are not. 1 districts that is 50% or more,the 17th the notion that 50% +1 is a must to have, escapes reality when there are many success stories across the nation such as IN-7, MO-8, WI-4, TX-9, MN-5, and in Florida the 22nd. Looking at these districts, one will notice they are urban in nature. I believe that if Alcee's district was not to leave Broward county he would likely lose a primary, but African Americans or another minority group for that matter would be able to win the general election. There would be no way to make a district in the area that is majority White. If one thinks of Georgia v Ashcroft's notion that influence districts would work, I'd think South Florida is a good place to see it enacted.
Hope this is the start of a good discussion about Florida.