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So yeah, I'm slipping some. I've been fiddling around with DRA, although the Michigan Map came from a couple of months ago. As with my previous Wyoming rule diaries (WI, IN, MN) these are strictly community of interest based maps.

The Michigan map is is 8D-6R-4 swing, and the Ohio map is a 7D-7R-6 swing.

Details below the fold.

Note on the 2006 average: the 2006 average is the average of the 2006 Governor, AG, and SoS races. It comes out to a 5 point statewide win for Republicans, which is a VERY optimistic scenario for Republicans in Michigan.

District 1 (blue):
2008: 50.1% Obama, 48.2% McCain
2006: 45.6% Dem, 54.4% Rep

This is a tossup district based in the ancestrally Democratic Upper peninsula. Dan Benishek would face a stiff challenge here.

District 2 (green):
2008: 53.9% Obama, 44.4% McCain
2006: 47.6% Dem, 52.4% Rep

Dave camp lives in this tossup to d-tilting district, however, he might not run here. It contains much of northeastern michigan, however, the population center is down around Saginaw, Bay City, and Midland.

District 3 (purple):
2008: 49.7% Obama, 48.5% McCain
2006: 40.9% Dem, 59.1% Rep

The largest population centers in this predominately rural district are probably Mount Pleasant, Ludington, Cadillac, Big Rapids, and Greenville. It's technically open, although Dave Camp might prefer this district to the swingier second. Pete Hoekstra lives here, so he could theoretically run here if he decided to drop the senate thing as well. Obama actually won this district by a point, but in most years, it would be pretty reliably Republican.

District 4 (red):
2008: 50.2% Obama, 48.3% McCain
2006: 37.6% Dem, 62.4% Rep

Again, Obama actually won this southern Kent County district by two points, but I'm counting it as solidly Republican based on the Dem average numbers. While Jason Amash might actually be at risk of losing this district to a strong candidate, we would probably only hold it for one cycle. The Democratic strength in this district is dependent on strong minority turnout in Grand Rapids, and the very conservative suburbs will definitely vote and are a very tough nut for Democrats to crack, especially on the congressional level.

District 5 (gold):
2008: 46.7% Obama, 51.7% McCain
2006: 47.6% Dem, 52.4% Rep

Ugh. As a Democrat, I hate this district, but there really aren't many changes to it I could justify based on CoI. This lake shore district combines Democratic Muskegon  with obscenely Republican Allegan and Ottowa counties to create a very solidly Republican district. Bill Huizenga would be fine here.

District 6 (teal):
2008: 55.3% Obama, 43.1% McCain
2006: 46.4% Dem, 53.6% Rep

In theory, this St. Joeseph / Benton Harbor to Kalamazoo southwestern Michigan district should be tossup to lean D. In practice, Fauxderate Fred Upton is probably a reasonably heavy favorite to win reelection.

District 7 (gray):
2008: 50.4% Obama, 47.9% McCain
2006: 41.1% Dem, 58.9% Rep
This is a point or so more Republican than Tim Walberg's old district, but he could still be vulnerable to a Mark Schauer comeback in a year with good turnout in Jackson and Battle Creek. still, lean R.

District 8 (slate blue):
2008: 57.5% Obama, 40.8% McCain
2006: 47.2% Dem, 52.8% Rep

This Lansing based district is pretty solidly Democratic, however, Republicans might have a shot here in wave years. Most of Mike Roger's constituents are here, however, he does not live here and probably wouldn't run here, unless he was concerned with avoiding a primary with Thad McCotter or wanted to take one for the team. If Gretchen Whitmer wants this district, it's hers.

District 9 (cyan):
2008: 61.0% Obama, 37.3% McCain
2006: 53.8% Dem, 46.2% Rep

This Flint based district is completely safe Democratic.

District 10 (hot pink):
2008: 47.7% Obama, 50.3% McCain
2006: 39.6% Dem, 60.4% Rep

Candice Miller should be completely safe in this "thumb" district.

Detroit Area:

District 11 (chartuse):
2008: 45.7% Obama, 52.6% McCain
2006: 35.1% Dem, 64.9% Rep

This exurban Detroit district is the most Republican district in the state. It contains the Republican parts of Mike Rogers and Thad McCotter's districts, and would probably feature a primary between the two.

District 12 (cornflower blue):
2008: 63.7% Obama, 35.2% McCain
2006: 53.0% Dem, 47.0% Rep

Gary Peters' only real threat in this district would be a primary from a black Democrat. The district is 24% Black VAP.

District 13 (salmon):
2008: 58.5% Obama, 39.5% McCain
2006: 50.0% Dem, 50.0% Rep

Sandy Levin would be fine in this district.

District 14 (goldenron):
2008: 50.6% Obama, 47.7% McCain
2006: 42.2% Dem, 57.8% Rep

This northern Macomb County district would be great for a Republican up-and-comer. democrats might be able to compete here with a strong candidate or in a wave year, but the district is pretty solidly R.

District 15 (Orange):
2008: 80.0% Obama, 19.2% McCain
2006: 69.6% Dem, 30.4% Rep
54.8% Black VAP
Black VRA district for Hansen Clarke

District 16 (Lime Green):
2008: 85.0% Obama, 14.0% McCain
2006: 75.6% Dem, 24.4% Rep
61.3% Black VAP
Black VRA district for John Conyers. Thad McCotter lives here, but wouldn't stand a chance if he ran here.

District 17 (dark slate blue):
2008: 62.0% Obama, 36.3% McCain
2006: 52.2% Dem, 47.8% Rep

John Dingell does not actually live in this western Wayne County district, but he would run here and win here. Unless he retired, in which case it would go to another Democrat.

District 18 (yellow):
2008: 63.9% Obama, 34.6% McCain
2006: 55.8% Dem, 44.2% Rep

This district would go to an Ann Arbor Democrat, probably state senator Rebekah Warren.

Note on the party averages: The Dem and Rep averages listed in this diary are the average performance of statewide candidates in 2008. They're a slightly more optimistic scenario than the Obama numbers, resulting a a 10 point statewide win instead of a 5 point one, however they were included to show Obama's underperformance in southeast Ohio. These areas would require a socially conservative Democrat to win and are probably trending away from us in general.

Southwest Ohio:

District 1 (blue):
62.0% Obama, 36.9% McCain
58.0% Dem, 42.0% Rep

This Cincinnati district is a safe bet for any Democrat to beat Steve Chabot in. Ex-Rep Steve Driehaus might attempt a comeback here, but the district is 30.7% black VAP, so there's a good chance a black Democrat would emerge from the primary.

District 2 (green):
33.1% Obama, 65.6% McCain
36.0% Dem, 64.0% Rep

This district is the most Republican district in the state, and would be completely safe for Jean Schmidt.

District 3 (purple):
35.2% Obama, 63.4% McCain
36.6% Dem, 63.4% Rep

A completely safe suburban Cincy district for John Boehner.

District 4 (red):
52.0% Obama, 46.5% McCain
50.9% Dem, 49.1% Rep

This Montgomery County swing district would be pretty close to a tossup in an open seat situation, but I suspect Mike Turner would be pretty hard to beat here. A decent candidate in a good to wave year would probably be able to do the trick, though.

District 5 (gold):
39.8% Obama, 58.6% McCain
41.9% Dem, 58.1% Rep

This heavily Republican mostly rural district covers the area between Dayton and Columbus. Steve Austria lives here, and would definitely run here. Jim Jordan also lives here, but would probably run in the 9th, where more of his constituents are. Springfield is probably the major population center.

District 6 (teal):
36.1% Obama, 62.0% McCain
39.5% Dem, 60.5% Rep

Bob Latta would hold down this district fine. He'd have to be careful, though, Joe the plumber lives right outside this district and might primary him if his run against Marcy Kaptur doesn't work out! :P

District 7 (gray):
53.9% Obama, 44.4% McCain
53.3% Dem, 46.7% Rep

This swing to lean D district contains west Columbus and it's western inner suburbs. Steve Strivers lives here and would probably be harder to beat here than we'd like to think in a non-wave year, but it's by no means an impossible climb.

District 8 (slate blue):
66.0% Obama, 32.7% McCain
63.0% Dem, 37.0% Rep

This district contains pretty much all of inner city Columbus and would elect a Democrat. At 31.9% black VAP, there is a high chance that that Democrat would be black.

District 9 (cyan):
42.3% Obama, 55.9% McCain
43.5% Dem, 56.5% Rep

This Columbus to northern Ohio rural district is overwhelming Republican. THe biggest population centers are Findlay, Freemont, Marion, and Delaware. Pat Tiberi is the only incumbent who actually lives here, however, if Jim Jordan decided to run here to avoid a primary with Steve Austria, he'd be in trouble. Tiberi's Fauxderate image would not serve him well here. Indeed, if all of the GOP incumbents do what's best for their self interest instead of what's best for the party, Tiberi is completely screwed out of a district!

District 10 (hot pink):
61.8% Obama, 36.6% McCain
64.2% Dem, 35.8% Rep

This Toledo based district would be completely safe for Marcy Kaptur.

Cleveland Area:

District 11 (chartuse):
54.6% Obama, 43.6% McCain
59.4% Dem, 40.6% Rep
I rated this lakeshore district as a swing district, but it leans pretty heavily Democratic. If Betty Sutton was feeling like a team player, she'd run here and basically lock this district down.

District 12 (cornflower blue):
41.7% Obama, 56.3% McCain
47.0% Dem, 53.0% Rep

Bob Gibbs and Jim Renacci both live in this somewhat rural district southwest of Cleveland. However, Bob Gibbs would probably prefer to avoid the Primary and run in the 19th, which has more of his current constituents. A Democratic Jesus could theoretically win here in a good year, however, the district is pretty solidly Republican - a win here would be the equivalent of a 15 point statewide win.

District 13 (salmon):
59.4% Obama, 39.2% McCain
65.1% Dem, 34.9% Rep

Possibly the worst consequence of the Wyoming Rule? Dennis Kucinich would get to keep a district!

District 14 (goldenron):
81.6% Obama, 17.8% McCain
81.7% Dem, 18.3% Rep
52.7 Black VAP

Black VRA district for Marcia Fudge.

District 15 (orange):
49.0% Obama, 49.4% McCain
52.7% Dem, 47.3% Rep

In an open seat situation, we should be able to compete in this lean R district. However, While Steve LaTourette doesn't live here, most of his constituents do, and he would probably run here. LaTourette's Fauxderate credentials combined with the slight Republican lean of the district would mean that he would basically have this district locked down.

District 16 (lime green):
59.8% Obama, 38.1% McCain
70.7% Dem, 29.3% Rep

Safe D Youngstown district for Tim Ryan. Steve LaTourette lives here, but would be crazy to run here.

District 17 (dark slate blue):
50.4% Obama, 47.4% McCain
58.2% Dem, 41.8% Rep

This swing to lean Dem district takes in Canton and rural parts of east central Ohio. A Democrat like Zack Space could completely lock this district down, however, John Boccieri also lives in this district and would be a reasonably strong candidate as well.

District 18 (yellow):
57.7% Obama, 40.8% McCain
62.3% Dem, 37.7% Rep
This Akron to Massilon district is where Betty Sutton lives, and where either Betty Sutton or John Boccieri could run if they didn't feel like being team players. This is also where Boccieri would run if Zack Space Ran in the 17th. It will elect a Democrat regardless.

District 19 (yellow green):
43.0% Obama, 55.0% McCain
49.3% Dem, 50.7% Rep

If Zack Space wanted to be a hero, he'd run here, however, Bob Gibbs would still be a pretty heavy favorite. Ironically, the Columbus exurbs in Licking and Fairfield Counties would be a harder nut for Space to crack than the rural parts of the district. Charlie Wlison lives here, but would probably run in the 20th to the south.

District 20 (light pink):
45.6% Obama, 52.1% McCain
57.5% Dem, 42.5% Rep

This southern Ohio district would probably be lean dem for the right type of Democrat, at least in the short term. It would probably feature a rematch between Charlie Wilson and Bill Johnson.

And that's the wrap. Merry Christmas, everyone!

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