I've been out on the Iowa prairie over the holidays. Wonderful place to watch the closing days of this process. I've learned a lot about the Republican side of things, and I've been impressed with the thoughtfulness that is going into caucus-goers appraisal of the candidates, although I don't agree with their stands on the issues.
Electability is a bigger factor this year among conservatives than in previous years, something that has not gotten much coverage. Even religious conservative Republicans are weighting this heavily in making their decisions. My rock-rib conservative friends in rural Iowa like Bachmann, but have come to the conclusion that she might not be able to hold herself together. There are similar issues with Newt, and they are uneasy about his marriages. They liked Cain until they found out he couldn't "keep it zipped."
These folks, stalwart Republicans, regular caucus-goers, Christians, have been leaning Romney. They don't like him much, but they think he may be the most electable. He seems in control of himself; he may have made small mis-steps, but he recovers. They are not especially concerned about his being Mormon, but they do have some concern that southern evangelicals won't vote for him. It’s that doubt that makes him vulnerable at the wire.
They like Santorum a lot. They had written him off because of low showings in the polls. He's the "If I could vote for the one I want to vote for, it would be him." With the rise in the polls the last few days, they're re-thinking that conclusion. He's not the non-Mitt of the earlier shooting stars; they really like him. They think he’s solid. He can handle himself. There’s no unease that he might crack under pressure like Bachmann, Perry, Cain and Newt. I think they felt bad about Perry. Perry looks presidential, he just doesn’t have the stuff.
Iowa conservatives want somebody who can win. Oh, they like the rogue talkers. They are Palin and Bachmann fans. Love ‘em, in fact. They believe in their ideas. What they don’t believe is that they can beat Obama. And they want somebody that can beat Obama. They are looking for confidence, intelligence and poise. They see that in Romney and Santorum. People who can hold their own with the public, the press, and the President. The night of the Caucus, they’ll put their vote on the guy they think can win. We will soon find out if Santorum has made his case.