Computer and I have both suffered nervous breakdowns these past three weeks, as we attempted to cope with the uncertainty of how teams were preparing themselves for the playoffs. We both thought New England played very well in overcoming early deficits, and we both thought Green Bay showed depth in their final game against Detroit. But other teams gave us fits. As a result, I didn't publish any predictions the last two weeks of the season.
I found that the last three weeks of the season did not follow the early season's patterns. Week 16 was such a disaster that I unplugged computer and then rebooted several times, getting rid of the 'recent games weight.' Computer still wanted San Francisco by 14 over St. Louis, but I told it no. As a result, I earned a package a Skittles from my father, who gave me the fourteen points, and SF won by 7. Ta-dah!
Again, computer's numbers below, USA today spread, then Jon Saraceno's predictions at the end, for perspective.
Away v. Home: Computer spread (USA Today)[Saraceno]
CIN @ HOU*: HOU 5 (3)[3]
ATL* @ NYG: NYG 2.5 (3)[ATL 7]
PIT @ DEN*: PIT 3 (9)[11]
DET* @ NO: NO 7 (11)[17]
The numbers above are computer's predictions for the 1st round of the playoffs. Notice how computer is disdainfully ignoring the fact that Houston's QB situation is dire. Sometimes I think computer is an idiot. This game I am staying away from, I will not bet on it. No skittles will be sacrificed in what looks like a coin toss to me.
Also, Pittsburgh does not have a great road record this season, and I am ready to take DEN straight up at home, what with Tim Tebow running wild against most defenses. But computer wants the Steelers, and sees this as a blow-out. Myself, I can't even come up with a profile for how this game will go-- Roethsligberger is a great QB and I feel as though Pittsburgh has been sandbagging the last few weeks. They are capable of scoring lots of points with their pass/pass/pass/run 1st half offense. I see Denver's hyperactive secondary as a good match for Pittsburgh. But as for a final score, I don't know, and I am avoiding an over/under wager with my Dad. I would take DEN with the points, and have a smaller side bet with DEN straight up to win.
Detroit v. New Orleans, looks like everyone in the universe sees the Saints getting the win and beating the spread. The Lions are a very good team and have played well, but the word is out--they haven't beaten a great team yet this year. And New Orleans is a great team. I don't see an upside to betting on Detroit, even to beat the spread. They could come up with the upset of the year, but after their disappointing loss on the road last year in Seattle, the Saints are laser-focused on this game and will put up many, many points. I simply don't see the Lions scoring as many.
Atlanta v. NYG looks like a close game on paper, but I will take the Giants in this game. I have seen Matt Ryan play this year and he is starting to look kind of Phillip Riversy to me-- he can be really really good at times, but is not quite in the same company of the Brady/Manning/Brees/Rodgers QBs. Ryan would have to win this game, and then I would apologize for what I just wrote.
Good luck to you and your team this weekend.