Skip to main content

As we start to get in to "the voters actually voting" phase of the Republican primary, Mike Littwin (Denver Post) had a great line summarizing the state of play:

Romney wins in Iowa — barely — and looks like the inevitable nominee nobody wants, but the one no one can apparently beat.
So, if we assume Romney wins by some amount in NH, we move on to less friendly territory in South Carolina (where Romney is doing well, and where Rick Perry's Alamo may be located) and then Florida, which broke Rudy Giuliani four years ago and which can potentially end this in Romney's favor for all practical purposes if he runs the table between now and then.

That makes today's Q-poll (MoE plus/minus 4.1) of especial interest:

With 36 percent of Florida Republican likely primary voters, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has a double-digit lead three weeks before the nation's first big-state presidential primary, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. But 54 percent of GOP primary voters say they still might change their mind.

Twelve points back in the Republican pack is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 24 percent, followed by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with 16 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul is at 10 percent with 5 percent for Texas Gov. Rick Perry and 2 percent for former ambassador Jon Huntsman. This first look at likely primary voters, a more select group, can't be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters.

There'll be more polling, of course, but now we have a baseline post-Iowa to judge what the New Hampshire effect, if any, is. Given the high percentage of soft support (equally distributed, apparently) this may not be the final word, but Romney still has to like the survey and the state of play as of this morning.

Of course, as his rivals' attacks heat up, it's going to get hot in the kitchen. Let's see who can take the heat.

Originally posted to Greg Dworkin on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 06:27 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos Elections and Daily Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (13+ / 0-)

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 06:27:26 AM PST

  •  So 54% say they may change their (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    agent, harrije, Gooserock, Terminus, Matt Z

    minds? I remember a study done years ago that found that as many people who say that they won't change their minds actually do change their minds as the number of people who say they may change their minds change their minds. In other words, 100% of people may change their minds.

  •  Newt is the only legitimate challenger left (0+ / 0-)

    Unless Santorum and Perry both drop out no later than right after South Carolina, Romney is running the table.

    (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

    by TrueBlueDem on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 06:48:32 AM PST

    •  Could be Santorum (5+ / 0-)

      Depends on how he fundraises, and what kind of fight he puts up in SC.  I feel like SC is all about picking one survivor between Newt/Perry/Santorum, with that person getting the one-on-one in Florida.

      •  In that case (0+ / 0-)

        Isn't Santorum the least likely of the 3 to be chosen.  Perry has more money/infrastructure, Newt more fire-breathing conservatism and Southern craziness.  Santorum is just ho-hum.

        •  Santorum's only chance (2+ / 0-)

          is if the fundy leaders meeting decides to throw its weight behind him.

          that would guarantee him an army of volunteers and millions from small donors and keep him afloat as the Romney alternative right up to the convention

          "Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."

          by TrueBlueMajority on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 08:36:50 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Does it matter though (0+ / 0-)

            After SC and FL, Romney wins like every caucus and primary in February.  I'm not sure any candidate can stay alive while going 0-for-12 in the first 12 races, money/volunteers or not.

            •  I'm not so sure about that (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              TrueBlueMajority

              Paul is making a real push for Nevada, where he has a lot of strength.

            •  Hillary stayed alive under those circumstances (0+ / 0-)

              sorry if that brings back bad memories for anyone

              "Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."

              by TrueBlueMajority on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 09:15:59 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  If you think that pattern (0+ / 0-)

                Means someone is going to stay alive then I don't agree on what alive is.  technically Buddy Roemer can stay alive throughout the process.

                Mitt will be 12-0 under my scenario...

                •  Do it matter that Romney (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  TrueBlueMajority

                  appears to have actually lost Iowa by a few votes? Or it that meaningless once he was declared the winner on election night?

                  "She was very young,he thought,...she did not understand that to push an inconvenient person over a cliff solves nothing." -1984

                  by aggressiveprogressive on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 09:50:49 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  meaningless n/t (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    rdw72777

                    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

                    by Greg Dworkin on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 09:56:04 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Agreed, meaningless (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    aggressiveprogressive

                    Everyone who listened for more than 3 seconds or read more than the opening line about Iowa know it was a tie.  The thesis some (not you) have put forth that "if Santorum had won by 8 votes things would be vastly different" is hard to understand

                    •  if Santorum had been declared the winner in IA (0+ / 0-)

                      then we wouldn't have to hear all the stories now that begin "if Romney wins New Hampshire after winning Iowa then he's got this locked up."

                      Romney would be deprived of his weak joke on the NH stump that refers to his "landslide victory" in Iowa.

                      And low information voters would not be hearing over and over again that Romney won Iowa.

                      For the record, I tend to believe the guy who said Romney got 2 votes instead of 22 in his caucus.  The vote being "certified" doesn't mean they went back and recounted the votes, it could mean they decided to set an error in stone.

                      Believe me, ALL the news coverage would be different now if Santorum had been the declared winner of the Iowa caucuses.

                      The stories would be about whether Santorum has the momentum to repeat rather than whether Romney will repeat.

                      "Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."

                      by TrueBlueMajority on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 10:57:08 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

      •  Anyone Heard From the Evangelical Meet in Texas (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        harrije, freesia

        over the weekend that was supposed to get behind one candidate?

        Or is that the kind of thing they'd keep secret?

        We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

        by Gooserock on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 08:37:26 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I haven't heard anything official (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          freesia

          But, since Perry has decided to skip NH and go straight to SC, I think a part of their decision was that their message wasn't going to resonate in New England.

          My expectation is that they will try to get behind Perry for a second-wind surge. He's really the only evangelical left in the race and I don't see them supporting a Mormon or Catholic (though they would probably not advertise that reasoning too loudly).

          "what did surprise me was their supposition that nobody would notice they were lying"

          by harrije on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 08:51:26 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Also Gingrich has money to run negative ... (0+ / 0-)

        ... on Mitt in SC, and Mitt has money to run negative on second-place Newt in SC ... the voters who are convinced by both sets of ads, where will they fall? Surely not Huntsman or Perry. That leaves some to fall to Santorum and some to fall to Paul. Paul might cherry pick whichever Congressional District is heaviest in college students (especially as school is in session), but for the winner take all statewide delegates, it seems like Santorum is best positioned to make a late run in SC.

        Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

        by BruceMcF on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 08:56:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Conservatives don't blame Corp Executives (0+ / 0-)

          For business failure, they blame govt regulations and NAFTA.  I doubt Newt's ads do too much too hurt Romney in SC.

          •  Its dangerous to have too stereotyped ... (0+ / 0-)

            ... a view of a large number of people. Scratch under the skin of lots of evangelical "social conservatives" you'll find more than a few with economic populist tendencies.

            Fox News and the Right Wing Echo Chamber has to work hard on countering that, but its not clear how hard they will work to defend Mittens.

            Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

            by BruceMcF on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 10:25:16 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  i've been reading FR a lot lately (6+ / 0-)

      and every conservative partisan wants the other candidates to drop out so theirs can win.

      too many egos.. they're gonna get their massachusetts "moderate".

  •  Romney is a weak front runner. (4+ / 0-)

    "Rick Perry talks a lot and he's not very bright. And that's a combination I like in Republicans." --- James Carville

    by LaurenMonica on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 07:20:28 AM PST

  •  it's over (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z

    Just like always except for Bush Jr the conservative vote splits up and the moderate gets nominated and they lose.

  •  For all of these numbers to matter (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The Caped Composer, Matt Z

    doesn't someone else have to be running for the nomination?  These conversations about polls have seemed pointless, in a way, for months now.  While we talk about Romney being able to win it or not, never has there been a plausible not-Mitt in the race who had anything like a chance of winning the nomination.  If one wants to understand how over this nomination contest is you just have to try to make the case for any of the OTHER jerks winning it.  It was over before it started.  

    We didn't go into Iraq because Bush thought it was dangerous. We went in because they knew it was weak.

    by Sun dog on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 07:28:52 AM PST

    •  actually the polls have clearly delineated (4+ / 0-)

      that the not Romney vote is split. That explains the results we are seeing, as well as making the case that Romney is a weak, non-beloved front runner.

      what else can you want from polls? they did their (limited) job very well.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 08:06:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, yes (0+ / 0-)

        it explains the results we're seeing but it also reinforces what I just said about no one else being able to rally the support to  win the nomination.  Just saying they're split between the not-Mitts ignores the fact that many of those voters would take Mitt as their second choice if their top jerk wasn't still in the race and none of those other candidates could actually rally a majority in any case.  

        I'm not arguing that he's such a strong candidate or anything.  I agree that he's a weak front-runner.  I've just seen from the start that he's going to win the nomination simply because the competition is a farce.  Splitting up the mess just obscures the fact that he's already got the nomination.  No one is really focusing on the question of who else could win this nomination.  If you want to convince me that Romney could still lose this, point to any one candidate who doesn't have WAY more problems in winning it than he does.  If it's about 100-1 against for any one of the other gopers, then it's pretty much locked up for Mitt.  

        I guess it doesn't matter too much if a lot of people on the left are analyzing the smoke and mirrors of the gop primary and imagining that there's a real race there.  I think the White House hasn't had any illusions for many months now about who they're going to run against.  

        And, really, it would be great if one of the other creeps gets some traction because then they'll be likely to beat up on Romney a bit before the convention.  

        We didn't go into Iraq because Bush thought it was dangerous. We went in because they knew it was weak.

        by Sun dog on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 09:08:13 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  my view: (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Sun dog

          Four reasons why Mitt Romney will be the nominee

          sounds very similar.

          I just like having the data to support it (and the polling also makes the same point about romney being acceptable to primary voters as a second choice - crystal clear in IA where the question was asked, fairly clear otherwise by looking at fav./unfav. See Ron paul, who is unacceptable to many of his non-supporters.)

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 09:35:27 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  over before it started (0+ / 0-)

      so many people said that in 2008

      "Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."

      by TrueBlueMajority on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 08:37:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I didn't (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TrueBlueMajority

        I assume you're referring to 2007 when people said Hillary was a sure thing.  I knew Obama had a shot and helped him win Iowa because of it.  In truth, every prediction I made in that election proved correct so the fact that other people were wrong doesn't actually reflect much on my prediction for this one.  

        We didn't go into Iraq because Bush thought it was dangerous. We went in because they knew it was weak.

        by Sun dog on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 08:56:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  My bet is on Newt (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z

    Santorum would have a whopping headstart in Iowa for next time, probably locking up the fundie vote four years in advance.

    •  Santorum 2016 (0+ / 0-)

      I've read this idea from people.  I mean, do people really believe it?

      Even a minimal amount of money against Santorum brings him down.  Any solid candidate, be they conservative or not, could win more than 25% of the vote in Iowa in 2016.  I don't see the GOP allowing this type of clusterf*** again in 2016 after Romney gets destroyed in 2012.

      •  He'll have four years (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        annieli, Matt Z

        to tone down (hide) his religious fanaticism; that line about loving his son just the same was a hint that he gets he needs to do that.

      •  run twice to win once (0+ / 0-)

        he's got national name recognition now and will look like the "next in line" if he makes a good showing tomorrow and in SC

        "Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."

        by TrueBlueMajority on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 08:38:33 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Nis name rec ain't that great (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TrueBlueMajority, Matt Z

          He won't even play in most states this time around.  Normally the people that win 2nd time around actually ran for at least half the full primary calendar the first time around.  

          I think the next few states are going to show that Santorum isn't really running in any serious manner.

        •  Happens sometimes in nominating races ... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TrueBlueMajority

          ... doesn't seem to work out in winning the White House ... so far, running four years after first running for President has tended to fall down either in the primaries or the general.

          Running eight years after first running has a better track record.

          Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

          by BruceMcF on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 08:59:11 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  LBJ in 1964 is about it ... (0+ / 0-)

            ... and he was running as an incumbent President, so I'll * that one:

            FDR, first time. Truman, first time. Ike, first time. Kennedy, first time. LBJ*, four years after, Nixon, eight years later, Carter, first time, Reagan, third time, second run eight years after first, HW Bush, eight years later, Clinton, first time, W Bush, first time, Obama, first time.

            First time candidates most common in the modern era, however we count it, candidates who ran their second time eight years after the first second most common, only time a candidate has won election after first running four years before, he was running as an incumbent.

            Mittens is running to make history. Or else repeat it: there are some second time in four year runs in the losing column.

            Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

            by BruceMcF on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 09:30:51 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  If the not-Romneys keep attacking Obama (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TrueBlueMajority

    instead of Romney, they will never beat him.  I like what Gingrich is doing but lets hope the voters understand the message.

  •  Speaking of rival's attacks and heat (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TrueBlueMajority

    In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

    by blue aardvark on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 08:32:25 AM PST

  •  everyone is banking on the undecided vote (0+ / 0-)

    to do something interesting tomorrow

    "Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."

    by TrueBlueMajority on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 08:34:34 AM PST

    •  Maybe the candidates (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TrueBlueMajority

      But not us.  I still don't think Santorum breaks top 3.  if he does, I suppose Huntsman then drops out, but i don't necessarily think Huntsman dropping out really helps anyone (may even help Romney).

      The undecideds will probably not break in a pro-Santorum or pro-Huntsman way.  Would be interesting if they did though....

      •  Huntsman seems to have positive momentum ... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TrueBlueMajority

        ... Santorum negative, which suggests the independents are likely to break to Huntsman, but not to Santorum.

        Except breaking to bring Huntsman from barely reaching third to a strong third would not seem to be enough to really keep Huntsman in the race ... he might keep running to Florida but its not strong enough to be able to sustain a shellacking in SC.

        Huntsman needs a second place to survive to fight another day, and that seems likely to only push his day of reckoning to too little, too late in Florida.

        Unless of course the RNC punishes Florida as they threaten to by making them allocate their delegates, and National Committee threats are often hollow posturing.

        Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

        by BruceMcF on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 09:04:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't see Huntsman momentum really (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TrueBlueMajority

          I mean it seems maybe a little, but momentum to me needs to be something more then margin of error.

          If Santorum can't break top 3 and Huntsman can't break top 2, the story just gets better for Romney.  Everyone stays in but nobody is close to challenging for the top spot.

          Also, doesn't FL have to do proportional allocation of delegates?  I thought all pre-April primaries are proportional by rule in 2012.

          •  FiveThirtyEight .... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TrueBlueMajority

            ... discusses it ... but tl;dr version, two weeks ago, Huntsman's polls were similar and low, now they are all over the map from up a little to up a lot: tracking up in the Suffolk Univ. tracking poll, Saturday's ARG 17%, Sunday's  UNH 11% (up 4%), PPP 16%.

            That normally indicates positive momentum. Its just likely too little, too late.

            Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

            by BruceMcF on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 09:17:17 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  yes--first winner take all primaries are in April (0+ / 0-)

            "Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."

            by TrueBlueMajority on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 09:19:01 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Some winner take bunches primaries ... (0+ / 0-)

              ... before then, though. SC, for instance, has statewide WTA delegates and per-Congressional-district WTA delegates.

              It would really burst the "invincible" bubble if Romney comes from ahead to get beaten in the delegate count in South Carolina and then Paul out organizes him in the shambles that the Republicans are making of Nevada.

              Florida, unless the RNC puts its foot down, will be the only winner take all primary for a while, so if Gingrich's money bags friend hands him enough money to extend the SC air war into Florida, and succeeds in shaking some voters loose, while Mittens succeeds in shaking some voters loose from Gingrich ... I have no idea where those voters would land, since they are more likely to end up with someone other than Gingrich or Mittens.

              I don't see how losing Florida would end Mittens run to the nomination, but it would delay his final victory by a month or more.

              Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

              by BruceMcF on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 09:40:49 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Both of these are pretty crazy scenarios though (0+ / 0-)

                Paul beating Romney in NV is borderline insane to consider.  Mitt isn't going to lose a decently Mormon state he won in 2008.

                And I'm not sure Mitt losing in SC hurts all that much unless you believe that immediately parlays into Florida too.  Mitt almost won FL in 2008 against much better competition.

                •  How much money was on the air to ... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  TrueBlueMajority

                  ... smear Romney in Florida in 2008? That was before Citizen's United ~ if Gingrich's billionaire buddy decides to tip in another $5m or $10m for TV ads in Florida to add to the $5m he tipped in for TV ads in SC, its hard to tell what the impact would be.

                  You'll notice I never said that Romney is likely to lose ... just advising caution against translating leads and advantages into locks and sure things.

                  Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

                  by BruceMcF on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 10:03:37 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  It won't matter (0+ / 0-)

                    They aren't in FL today, and Mitt has organization and money and ads in FL today.  Florida isn't winner-take-all, I'm not sure why people keep saying it is.  No winner take all's until April, by GOP rule.

                    There's really no reason to believe McCain didn't spend money in FL in 2008, nor Huckabee.  McCain spent $2M in the week before the Florida primary alone.

                    Romney is facing a much more favorable situation compared to 2008, no matter how many "what if's" people want to throw out there to create a mythical uncertainty.

                    •  2 million is chump change since Citizens United (0+ / 0-)

                      "Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."

                      by TrueBlueMajority on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 10:50:18 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  The point being (0+ / 0-)

                        Mitt can counter it.  He has money too, is already on the air, and those only so much ad time available, of which I'm sure he's already reserved a lot.

                        the comment I replied too was stating $5-10 million, which Mitt can counter.  While i agree the Koch's are billionaire's, the idea that they will put say $50 million into this race is ludicrous and not really discussion worthy.  

                        If they were going to do something huge, why wouldn't they be in FL already.

                        •  they've already spent that much in other areas (0+ / 0-)

                          much less important to them than the presidency.

                          if they are willing to spend $50 mil on climate change denial, they will cough up much more for their preferred presidential candidate.

                          the Koch brothers are hardcore tea partiers, so if they decide to openly back a not-Mitt, he will be in trouble.

                          they appear to be keeping a relatively low profile so far.  we have to wait and see.

                          "Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."

                          by TrueBlueMajority on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 11:09:41 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Because they haven't spent already (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            TrueBlueMajority

                            Tells me they aren't going to throw insane money at this.  If they only match Mitt, as seems likely, I don't see how newt et al gain.

                            There is no evidence that a $50M anti-Romney ad buy in FL is coming.  There is evidence that Mitt is planning to spend millions in FL because he already has ads up and has reserved more.

                            If any of these people were serious, they wouldn't have sat out Iowa and New Hampshire.  What logic would there be to not softening Mitt up there and leaving Newt to drown in Iowa only to resuscitate in FL?

                    •  Florida (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      BruceMcF

                      is Winner Take All at the moment because the Florida Republican Party says it is; the national party has expressed its displeasure at the idea, and hinted that they're likely to refuse to seat a single-candidate delegation, but hasn't outright committed to that yet.

                      •  Ah I see they cut it to 50 from 99 (0+ / 0-)

                        Well that makes it less relevant in the long run I suppose.  

                        Mitt's going to run away with it in February, I still think SC and FL are over-rated when Mitt wins 10 of the first 12 states.

                    •  What newdem said ... (0+ / 0-)

                      ... the stripping of half of Florida's delegates for moving up has already happened, but last I saw, the changing of the winner take all rule is just a threat. If Romney is an 80% likelihood to win Florida at this point, that would be a 20% likelihood that someone else wins, and unless the RNC changes the rules soon, that would mean ending up with those 50 delegates all at once.

                      And would the media come out with the shallow horse-story news headlines, "Romney wins 3 out of 4 but behind in race"? OUR shallow media who wants the excitement of the horse race to last as long as possible before the ratings killer of foregone conclusions that they have to spend money covering anyway?

                      As far as a mere $2m the week before FL in 2008 ~ what TrueBlueMajority said. Florida is a big state, unlike New Hampshire, and where New Hampshire media time may have been all booked a week out, there'll still be plenty of opportunity to get on the air in Florida. $10m to $15m against Romney and most of Romney's money spent to tearing down another candidate rather than to boosting him are both quite possible.

                      Certainly a number of "not winner take all" states before April could well be "winner take most" ~ there is no hard and fast rule on the Republican side on proportional allocation versus allocating by winner of distinct congressional districts, and proportional thresholds are allowed to be as high as 20% in proportional allocation states.

                      Romney's without a doubt the likely nominee, but Romney's favorable situation can be contrasted to support that is in many cases like the Platte River ~ a mile wide and an inch deep. It only takes one actual serious stumble as opposed to the little bumps and sways that have happened to date, and happening before its too late for a stop Romney bandwagon to get rolling and he could find himself in trouble.

                      Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

                      by BruceMcF on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 11:15:05 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

        •  Huntsman is clearly running for 2016 at this point (0+ / 0-)

          now he has national name recognition and looks like the sane one next to whomever the Rs nominate

          "Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."

          by TrueBlueMajority on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 09:18:04 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Startrek 4 comes to mind (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    annieli, Matt Z
    Dr. Gillian Taylor: Sure you won't change your mind?
    Spock: Is there something wrong with the one I have?

    http://www.imdb.com/...

    Response: If you "got it" you wouldn't be a republican

    by JML9999 on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 08:37:56 AM PST

  •  Gingrich is taking no prisoners (4+ / 0-)

    Going after Bain Capital, and portraying Romney as an evil bankster is as good as money spent by Obama's team - or better.

    Eric Cartman wants to taste Willard's delicious tears of failure.

    Effective activism requires Activists -- Effecting radical change demands Radicals

    by Anthony Page aka SecondComing on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 08:44:39 AM PST

  •  The 'Heisenberg Candidate'...Don't look too close. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    annieli, Matt Z

    Just follow allong with the bullshit until the cart tips over.

  •  Gingrich is doing well in SC and FL (0+ / 0-)

    With so many undecided, I think he has a very good chance to come out on top if he and others keep up the attacks that hit the mark in yesterday's debate.  

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 08:51:27 AM PST

  •  If Rick Perry has moved the Alamo to ... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The Caped Composer

    ... South Carolina, I already know how that ends up.

    I need to find the Mexican to bet on.

    Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

    by BruceMcF on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 08:51:54 AM PST

  •  Already (0+ / 0-)

    seeing Romney ads in FL, appears to be the only one up so far.

  •  I Think Independents Are Waking Up (0+ / 0-)

    and will vote for Huntsman over Romney.  If that happens it will be a new ball game.

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 08:56:19 AM PST

    •  Based on what (0+ / 0-)

      His 2% figure poll in FL or 13% in NH?

      •  The 13% in NH ... (0+ / 0-)

        ... independents will vote for Huntsman over Romney, narrowly. Republicans, however, will vote for Romney over Huntsman by a much larger margin.

        Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

        by BruceMcF on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 09:12:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  All things considered (0+ / 0-)

          I don't think the hypothesis is provable nor a game changer even if it were.

          •  The hypothesis is provable enough ... (0+ / 0-)

            ... via exit polls Tuesday, and as for not being a game changer ... yes, of course not, what in the Sam Hill do you think that answering a claim that "the independents will break for Huntsman" with ...

            ... independents will vote for Huntsman over Romney, narrowly. Republicans, however, will vote for Romney over Huntsman by a much larger margin.

            ... means?

            Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

            by BruceMcF on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 09:22:39 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  See rssrai's initial comment (0+ / 0-)

              regarding "a whole new ball game".

              Also, any polling that shows a subset of the electorate voting for anyone narrowly as you state is certainly going to be within the MoE, meaning not provable.

              •  Wait a minute ... (0+ / 0-)

                ... We know that a disproportionate number of undecided's at this point are independents. Nobody can make an appreciable late surge at this point in a new Hampshire primary without either (1) shaving support from someone else or (2) having independents break their way.

                I made a comment suggesting that rssrai might be overstating things regarding what presently seems to be independents breaking to Huntsman making "a whole new ball game" ...

                ... by laying out electoral arithmetic in which they do indeed break that way but it is too little, too late.

                And you direct me to reread the the first of pair of comment and response that I was making a response to?

                ?? Huh?

                Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

                by BruceMcF on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 10:16:30 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Mitt has a ceiling in NH (0+ / 0-)

                  the larger the turnout, the worse his percentage becomes.

                  •  But then so does everyone else (0+ / 0-)

                    The question is, I suppose, how close is Romney's floor to huntsman or Paul's ceiling?

                    •  What I think you're missing (0+ / 0-)

                      are the votes of independent/undeclared voters. It doesn't really matter who ends up getting what exactly, as long as Mitt is at or below 30% in NH, along with Paul and Santorum(?) picking up proportional delegates.

                      •  See I disagree with that (0+ / 0-)

                        I'm not missing it, I just don't see how ti works.  How many times does Mitt have to finish first before it eventually becomes a game of wins mattering.

                        Also, the longer it is where Mitt finishes first and the rest of the rabble are close in the standings but never winning, the longer all of the rabble stay in the race.  That only helps Mitt.

                        I also think NH provides no clarity for SC.  the only person who can gain heading to SC is Gingrich; if he beats Santorum then Santorum looks weak.  But if Newt comes in 3rd or 4th and knocks Romney back to low 30's he looks like the standard bearer for the so called non-Romney wing.

                        •  His expectations are so high in NH (0+ / 0-)

                          that 30% and 1/3 or so of the delegates, would be seen as a loss (or, I suppose, "non win").
                          From what I gather, it's Santorum, not Gingrich, who would beat Romney in SC. Gingrich will be a drain on Lil Ricky; Newt would be best airing anti-Romney ads in SC and FL, but actually campaigning actively as little as possible as a boost to Santorum.
                          Romney can be beaten by a single candidate in SC/FL. One of them has to go. Paul can continue picking up delegates in non WTA states to force a brokered convention.

                          •  If he gets 33% of the vote and wins by 10% (0+ / 0-)

                            It won't play that way, simply because of what the rest will do.  

                            Huntsman/Paul like 2nd/3rd and don't play at all in SC.  Santorum Iowa momentum dead.  Newt ran very negative and only came in 4th or 5th.  Perry useless.

                            There's only so long that bad news for Romney gives opportunity for others.  At some point, opportunity not seized becomes opportunity lost.  Romney can't really come out looking that bad if it turns out that Huntsman and Paul are hos closest pursuers.  

                            Wounding your opponent only helps if you're healthy enough to overtake him while he's wounded.  Gingrich and Santorum aren't as of yet, though certainly Gingrich is in better position than Santorum.

                          •  I read just now (0+ / 0-)

                            that a SC GOP'er aligned with no candidate said Santorum has the best chance as he has high favorables/likeability: Newt is a nasty has-been, and Mitt is a plastic gotrocks. Perry is seen in SC as a dumb Bush re-tread.

                          •  I guess it depends (0+ / 0-)

                            If newt sense he has a chance to win, I doubt he lets Santorum skate in SC.

                            I still think no one gets to 35% in SC and it clarifies nothing.  I'm not sure a small win for Santorum or Gingrich helps too much.  But if Santorum wins, I have no idea how he'd do in FL.  Gingrich at least still seems to have something of a base there.

  •  Good morning! (0+ / 0-)

    Out of 6 front page posts, 4 of them are about the Reublican primary race.  Are there no other important news stories in the world, other than the idiotic utterances of the clown car?  
    Sorry guys, got up on the wrong side of the bed today.  The good news, I have a bed. The bad news, so many of our fellow citizens do not have a bed of their own, and DK front page is too busy with the clown car horse race to tell us about it.

  •  Romney sucks least! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT

    FL voters send out call for volunteers who suck even less. "There has to be someone among the 300 million people in the USA that sucks less than Romney and doesn't sound like a nut," says FL GOP Chair.

  •  Florida, where Gingrich was unbeatable (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mariken, DemFromCT

    ..a month or so ago. PPP had him up 30 on Gingrich.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

    If this thing isn't over now it certainly will be if Romney wins all four of these early states.

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 09:23:20 AM PST

  •  Romney will be their nominee (0+ / 0-)

    It´s over for the non-Romneys.

    "Walking into someone's diary is like walking into someone's home. You are a guest. Act accordingly." Kos

    by Mariken on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 09:25:33 AM PST

  •  Do floridians know that HITLER was a Mormon? (0+ / 0-)

    and ANNE FRANK too

    Odd that no one ever talks about how Hitler and Anne Frank were both Mormons

     I wonder if that is because they were both converted to Mormonism AFTER their deaths, by the LDS Church...  which makes me wonder if,  when Romney becomes President, the LDS Church will be happy with only converting people who did not ask to be converted, after they die.... especially since the LDS Church has already converted ALL of the founding fathers.

    When Romney becomes THE republican Candidate will we be allowed to discuss Romney's religion like the right did with Obamas?

    "Orwell was an optimist"

    by KnotIookin on Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 10:08:31 AM PST

  •  why would Gingrich (0+ / 0-)

    be doing so well in Florida of all places? Simply because Georgia and Florida share a border?

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site