Crime has always been a prime subject for local and national news, I am sure everyone has heard the adage “If it bleeds, it leads” and with the advent of 24 hour news services, anyone who wants to be fearful just needs to turn on their favorite cable news channel and they will find plenty of reasons to stay home. But the truth of the matter is quite a different thing; our streets are safer now than they have been in quite a while.
The most recent FBI crime statistics show that in the first half of 2011, "violent crimes were down 6.4 percent, while property crimes fell 3.7 percent." Murder declined by 5.7 percent, rape by 5.1 percent, and robbery by 7.7 percent.
Of course short term six-month drops don't mean a whole lot all by themselves, but this one continues an established trend. In 1991, crime peaked and then fell pretty steadily before it flattened out half way through the 2000s, and since 2006, both violent crime and property crime have dropped significantly.
As of today, your chance of being murdered is lower than it was in the late 1950s, a time portrayed as being wholesome, peaceful and orderly. But low crime rates don’t fit the narrative. We are inundated with disturbing proclamations of doom with people from both sides of the political spectrum taking the bait, hook line and sinker. If it is not criminal youth looking to rape then it’s a pot smoker who will turn to harder drugs and rob and steal to support their habit or it is a terrorist wanting to blow something up or worst of all, a person with a concealed carry permit that will snap and go on a shooting rampage at any moment.
All of these proclamations have come at a cost; inordinate numbers of African American males have been incarcerated, we have a failed war on drugs and a militarized police force, our liberties are being stripped away by the Department of Homeland Security and the TSA and there is a fear of citizens exercising a right. Both Republicans and Democrats are guilty of telling ghost stories of goblins and gremlins, demons and devils, horrors and fears which when confronted have turned out to be little more than shadows of imagination that dissipate when exposed to light.
Crime is down.
According to the figures released today by the FBI, the estimated number of violent crimes in 2010 declined for the fourth consecutive year. Property crimes also decreased, marking the eighth straight year that the collective estimates for these offenses declined.
Each of the four violent crime offenses decreased when compared with the 2009 estimates. Robbery had the largest decrease at 10.0 percent, followed by forcible rape with a 5.0 percent decline, murder and nonnegligent manslaughter with a 4.2 percent decrease, and aggravated assault with a 4.1 percent decline.
Each of the property crime offenses also decreased in 2010 when compared with the 2009 estimates. The largest decline, 7.4 percent, was for motor vehicle thefts. The estimated number of burglaries decreased 2.0 percent, and the estimated number of larceny-thefts declined 2.4 percent.
So what is the driving force that accounts for all this domestic tranquility? Locking up more criminals probably did some good, but it looks like that trend has run its course.
During 2009, both admissions and releases declined and prison population growth slowed due to a larger decrease in admissions than releases.
Additionally there's been no recent boom in police hiring.
According to the book "Freakonomics," Steven Levitt and journalist Stephen Dubner claim that the legalization of abortion has been a factor in the drop in crime. But abortion rates peaked in 1981 and continue to drop. If higher abortion rates lead to a lower crime rate, as "Freakonomics" suggests, then lower abortion rates should lead to higher crime rates.
Economics plays a role in crime rates but is our standard of living higher now than 50 years ago? I believe a good education has a positive effect on crime rates as well but I am the opinion that our current education system, in how it is financed and the instruction it provides, is not serving us or our children very well.
Self reported gun ownership is the highest since 1993, with record low numbers of people in favor of a handgun ban. Gun ownership is up across the board even among women and Democrats.
The bottom line is that crime is down significantly, but there is no definitive explanation. We cannot point to one thing and say this is why crime is down. What we can say is that increased gun sales, increased gun ownership and liberalized gun laws have not resulted in an increase in crime.
The goal of this site is to elect more and better Democrats and for me a portion of that means more Democrats that embrace the 2nd Amendment, more Democrats that are in favor of concealed carry permits, more Democrats that want to see current laws fully enforced, more Democrats that aren't maternal authoritarians, interested only in controlling the actions of others engaged in a legal activity they don't approve of, more Democrats interested in increased gun safety and further crime reduction and more Democrats that view the 2nd Amendment not as an out dated anachronism but as an amendment that is equal to the others, just as vital and just as important.
Right to Keep and Bear Arms is a DKos group of second amendment supporters who also have progressive and liberal values. We don't think that being a liberal means one has to be anti-gun. Some of us are extreme in our second amendment views (no licensing, no restrictions on small arms) and some of us are more moderate (licensing, restrictions on small arms.) Moderate or extreme or somewhere in between, we hold one common belief: more gun control equals lost elections. We don't want a repeat of 1994. We are an inclusive group: if you see the Second Amendment as safeguarding our right to keep and bear arms individually, then come join us in our conversation. If you are against the right to keep and bear arms, come join our conversation. We look forward to seeing you, as long as you engage in a civil discussion. If you're just here to disrupt or troll, expect to get a Do Not Respond (DNR) comment and then be ignored. Insults, lies, and willful ignorance will be dealt with by normal community moderation. Disagreement by itself is not considered trolling.
As always, if you're interested in joining RKBA, message KVoimakas.