For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. And yes, I know Republicans have the trifecta in both of these states. This entire series is theoretical to begin with, gimme a break.
Louisiana and Mississippi are both states with sizable black populations, but they only get 1 majority district in each, partly due to natural concentration. Louisiana lost a district in the 2010 census, which caused the Republicans (with complicit Democrats) draw an abominable New Orleans-to-Baton Rouge district. So I wanted to see how far I could go in the other direction.
Links to the adopted plans in Louisiana and Mississippi
Previous Doubling Diaries: UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID
Louisiana
Louisiana gets 13 districts
The "Dem Average" is:
- President 2008
- Senate 2008
- U.S. House races 2008
1
VAP: 72.2 White, 18.5 Black
30.8 Obama, 42.6 Dem
Open; Jeff Landry (R-New Iberia) does not live here, but this district contains a vast majority of his current territory and would probably run here. This is Cajun Country! We'd be screwed unless Charlie Melancon (D), and probably even then too. Safe R
5
VAP: 78.1 W, 17.4 B
25.2 Obama, 34.5 Dem
Open; Steve Scalise (R-Jefferson) does not live here, but this district is very similar to his current one. All I have to say is Oof. Safe R
7
VAP: 48.6 W, 47.2 B
55.2 Obama, 58.4 Dem
Plurality white (majority black by total population). Rep Jeff Landry's home was drawn into this district, but as I said above he would run in the 1st. Charles Boustany's home of Lafayette is also potentially drawn into this district, the city is split in half. The district starts in New Iberia/Lafayette and snakes up to Alexandria, picking up every blue (or black) precinct along the way. The fact that a plurality white district in Louisiana voted for Obama by 12 points is a good sign for any black Democrat would may want to run here. Likely D, black opportunity
8
VAP: 42 W, 53.9 B
60 Obama, 64.6 Dem
Black Majority. John Fleming (R-Minden) lives here, but certainly would rather run in the 13th, even with the large swath of new territory. Mostly Monroe and Shreveport, this district will certainly elect a Black Democrat. Safe D, black pickup
10
VAP: 82 W, 12.3 B
23.4 Obama, 29.3 Dem
More Cajun country! Rep. Charles Boustany's home could possibly be in this district, but he'd run here regardless. It contains a lot of his territory and it's very, very red. Safe R
11
VAP: 74.2 W, 20 B
31.3 Obama, 37.4 Dem
Open. Leftovers in the central part of the state. Safe R
12
VAP: 74.1 W, 19.9 B
26.2 Obama, 32.5 Dem
Rep. Rodney Alexander (Traitor-Quitman) lives here, and would be just fine with this district, thank you very much. Safe R
13
VAP: 70.4 W, 25.6 B
29.9 Obama, 35.8 Dem
Open; as I said, John Fleming would probably rather run here than face certain defeat in his home district. Otherwise, ho hum. Safe R
New Orleans/Baton Rouge
2
VAP: 36.7 W, 50 B, 7.1 Hispanic
63.9 Obama, 67.5 Dem
Black majority; Cedric Richmond (D-New Orleans) either lives here or in the 3rd, but would run here. Parts of Orleans and Jefferson Parishes. Safe D
3
VAP: 54.3 W, 35.2 B, 6.9 H
57.3 Obama, 60.6 Dem
Rep. Steve Scalise lives here, but would run in the 5th like I said. Orleans, Jefferson and St. Tammany Parishes. A black Democrat would have a good chance in the primary and the general, but this could also be a district for former Lieutenant Governor and current Mayor of New Orleans Mitch Landrieu. Safe D, black opportunity
4
VAP: 70.4 W, 16.2 B, 9.9 H
27.9 Obama, 34.1 Dem
Open. New Orleans suburbs. Safe R
6
VAP: 43.4 W, 49 B
56 Obama, 57.9 Dem
Plurality black. Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-Baton Rouge) lives here, but would probably rather run in the 9th. Although a black Democrat could win running away in the primary, and be very favored in the general, this could also be a comeback district for <1 term Rep. Don Cazayoux (D)
9
VAP: 71.2 W, 23.3 B
35 Obama, 41.6 Dem
Open; as I said, Bill Cassidy would probably run here. Safe R
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Louisiana goes from a 1-6 current delegation, to a 1-5 proposed map, to a 5-8 map under Doubling (assuming I'm the universal Special Master), including at least one new black representative and the potential for 3 others.
Mississippi
Mississippi gets 8 districts
1 (Blue)
VAP: 44.2 W, 51.7 B
58.9 Obama
Black majority. Open. Northwest part of the state (Clarksdale, Southaven). Safe D, black pickup
2 (Green)
VAP: 47.2 W, 49.3 B
56.2 Obama
Plurality black. Open; central MS. Republican Alan Nunnelee's home of Tupelo could potentially be in this district since I split it, but regardless he'd run the district containing the other half. If it were majority black I'd call it safe, but as it is I'd only call it Likely D, likely black pickup
3 (Purple)
VAP: 45.8 W, 50.2 B
54.5 Obama
Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton) and Gregg Harper (R-Pearl) both live here; Harper would run in the 7th and while Thompson would probably not be happy, he's too conservative for his current district and he didn't lift a finger to help Democrats in the state legislative races in 2011 and potentially lost us the State House. So I don't much care. Safe D
4 (Red)
VAP: 44.9 W, 51.6 B
55.9 Obama
Black majority. Open; Southwest part of the state. Safe D, black pickup
5 (Yellow)
VAP: 65.4 W, 26.2 B
40.6 Obama
Steve Palazzo (R-Biloxi) lives here. Biloxi, Pascagoula, Gulfport and Hattiesburg. This is a Gene Taylor comeback district: it's 8 points more blue than the current MS-04, so if Taylor wants, he could probably win here and be invincible in any non-2010esque year (he never got below 64% before 2010; yeesh that's a hard fall). Palazzo could either stay in the 5th and duke it out with Taylor and take his chances, or run in the 6th. Likely D if the seat is open and Taylor runs, Tossup if Taylor runs and Palazzo stays, Likely R if Taylor sits it out.
6 (Teal)
VAP: 84.6 W, 11.7 B
18.8 Obama
Open; Steve Palazzo could run here (assuming Taylor runs and he bails on the 5th), but he'd be vulnerable in the primary. This is the worst district for Obama that I've drawn so far. Safe R
7 (Black)
VAP: 72.9 W, 22.6 B
29 Obama
Open; Columbus and Philadelphia. Safe R
8 (Orange)
VAP: 81.8 W, 14.1 B
27.2 Obama
Northeast part of the state. As I said, Alan Nunnelee's home is either in the 2nd or in this district, but he runs here no matter what. Safe R
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So from a 1-3 map to a 5-3 (assuming Taylor runs, which for the purposes of this series I will)! Awesome. Louisiana and Mississippi together make for 10-11, bringing the entire House so far to 88-73-15.
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