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Joe Walsh
2012's most endangered man?
For those of you who've been hankering for some House polling (which was nearly non-existent last year, though that's largely because it's hard to poll under district lines that hadn't been drawn yet), there's suddenly a huge buffet to choose from. That's courtesy of Public Policy Polling, though it's on behalf of House Majority PAC, a Democratic organization focused on House races.

Although they only polled in states where the redistricting book has been truly closed, a few of these polls still have a sketched-in quality, since there's still a competitive Democratic primary to be resolved first. Nevertheless, it's an interesting-enough—and hopeful, but not overly rosy—collection of stuff that it's worth unpacking a bit.

Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC. 1/18-23. Registered voters. (No trendlines):

IL-08
Generic D (D): 49
Joe Walsh (R-inc): 35
MoE ±4.4%

Illinois' 8th district is the "holy crap" number of the bunch, but it shouldn't come as a surprise: Loudmouthed ultra-bagger Joe Walsh has offered up enough ammunition that he would have been an underdog for reelection even under the old district's lines, but redistricting turned the suburban, previously 56 percent Obama, 8th into a 62 percent district instead. "Generic D" is a bit of a misnomer here since the Democrats have two strong, well-known choices here (Tammy Duckworth and Raja Krishnamoorthi), though it remains to be seen who emerges from the primary. Walsh sports 28/44 approvals.

IA-04
Christie Vilsack (D): 43
Steve King (R-inc): 49
MoE ±3.1%

Rep. Steve King is one of the few House members who can give Walsh stiff competition for "most likely to say something objectionable," but previously he's been protected by having a solidly red district. Now he finds himself in a 48 percent Obama district and up against a top-tier Democrat in the form of former state first lady Christie Vilsack. King still has a decent lead, probably thanks to the power of incumbency, but at the same time 52 percent say it's "time for someone new."

MI-01
Gary McDowell (D): 46
Dan Benishek (R-inc): 41
MoE ±3.3%

Dan Benishek isn't the first name that would have leapt to mind for me among vulnerable Republicans, as he has somewhat-comfortable terrain (a 50 percent Obama district in Michigan's rural Upper Peninsula), but the poll shows MI-01 residents ready to trade him in for his 2010 opponent, ex-State Rep. Gary McDowell. Benishek's approvals are 33/45.

OH-07
Generic D (D): 43
Robert Gibbs (R-inc): 42
MoE ±3.7%

Democrat Zack Space couldn't hold on to this GOP-leaning rural district in 2010 (the bulk of which used to be OH-18), but it looks like Robert Gibbs, who beat him, may have an even shorter stay in the House; Gibbs has 34/51 approvals. This is one race, though, where "Generic D" might overperform the actual D we wind up with here; Joyce Healy-Abrams, the never-elected sister of Canton's mayor, seems to be the likeliest Democrat to emerge from the primary.

MD-06
Generic D (D): 42
Roscoe Bartlett (R-inc): 42
MoE ±4.4%

Here's a race where I thought we might already be better positioned, with the 6th transformed by redistricting into a 56 percent Obama district. But this is a race that will definitely evolve, that could go either way depending on whether Roscoe Bartlett, the octogenarian long-timer who's never had to put up much of a fight to hold the old red version of MD-06, can shake the rust off. (Of course, he has serious GOP primary opposition, so if he doesn't remember how to campaign, he might not even make it to the general.) State Sen. Rob Garagiola seems the likeliest Democrat to emerge from the primary. Bartlett's approvals are 39/44, and 60 percent think it's time for him to be replaced.

OH-16
Betty Sutton (D-inc): 46
Jim Renacci (R-inc): 46
MoE ±3.4%

The newly-configured Akron-area 16th sets up a member-versus-member fight on slightly Republican-leaning turf. This was probably Betty Sutton's best bet, who really got left with no good options out of redistricting, and the numbers suggest she might just pull it off (though getting to 50 percent +1 will be hard). Republican Jim Renacci has 31/38 approvals, and 60 percent think he should be replaced.

CO-03
Sal Pace (D): 39
Scott Tipton (R-inc): 46
MoE ±4.1%

This Western Slope district is one of the less friendly districts that they tested (only 48 percent Obama), so it's probably no surprise that Scott Tipton is in somewhat better shape than the other Republicans here. Still, he's at 36/40 approvals and 54 percent think he should be replaced, so as Democratic State Rep. Sal Pace's name recognition increases, this may become closer.

OH-06
Charlie Wilson (D): 41
Bill Johnson (R-inc): 42
MoE ±3.5%

Charlie Wilson was a surprise last-minute loss in 2010 in Ohio's Appalachian-flavored southeastern 6th, and his Republican replacement, Bill Johnson, doesn't seem to have made much of an impression so far, with much higher unknowns than the other Republicans tested (he's at 31/32 approvals). It looks like their rematch is on track to be another close one.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 01:02 PM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I'll bet Dems pick up 6 of those (8+ / 0-)

    IL-08
    IA-04
    MI-01
    MD-06
    OH-16

  •  what about cravack's mn district? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Senor Unoball, MichaelNY, Mark27, askew

    any polling on that?

  •  I also heard that they recently tested (4+ / 0-)

    Bill Halter against Tim Griffin in AR-02. I haven't seen results though.

    Progressive Dixiecrat. 19, LSU student, NC resident

    by MilesC on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 01:11:32 PM PST

  •  I hope this boosts Charlie Wilson's war. (6+ / 0-)

    "I had little green doctors pounding on my back. It is not a question of being safe. I can defend myself." -Former Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY)

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 01:12:53 PM PST

  •  IA-04 is 48% Obama, not 53% sadly (13+ / 0-)

    I have no doubt King would get crushed in a 53% Obama seat.

  •  Remember, Sutton doesn't necessarily need 50% (14+ / 0-)

    Since Libertarian Jeff Blevins is running. Got above 6% against Renacci in '10.

    21/Male/ D/OH-16 (was OH-13), College: OH-7 (was OH-18)

    by liberal intellectual on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 01:15:09 PM PST

  •  My guess (10+ / 0-)

    IL-08 - Certain pickup.  Walsh is a TERRIBLE fit for the new 8th.  Possibly the largest defeat of any incumbent in 2010.

    MD-06 - Near certain pickup.  Hard to see a staunch conservative like Bartlett growing that 42% by much in the new 1st district.  Probably will end up something like a 55-45% win for whomever the Dems nominate.

    IA-04 - Leans R - We have a very good candidate but this district still isn't favorable for Dems.

    MI-01 - Probably a tossup to slight Dem edge

    OH-07 - Seems like a tossup at this point.

    OH-16 - Another race that seems a 50/50 tossup.

    OH-06 - Charlie Wilson just ran into a tough 2010 cycle.  He's a good candidate and this one seems no worse than a tossup.

    CO-03 - Tossup to dlight Rep lean.

    Overall I'd say roughly +4D in a neutral climate, +5 or 6D in a pro-Dem cycle.  The more I see polls like these the more I think Dems have a real chance at picking up the House.  Hope they do more polls like these.

    •  There's a lot of affection for Rep. Bartlett... (10+ / 0-)

      Because he's friendly to the media and he provides good constituent service. He comes off as a sweet old man and a pretty genuine guy. (He sat between Reps. Chu and Pelosi at the State of the Union and I saw him applauding more with Democrats than the average Republican.) But I think he's just too conservative to win in a 56% Obama district, he's too rural-oriented to make serious inroads in Montgomery County (49% of the district), and he's too elderly to inspire much confidence among voters who might otherwise prefer a known quantity in the race.

      I think he'll outperform Sen. McCain's numbers, but I still expect a 9-10 point margin for Garagiola when the votes are counted.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 04:16:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Isn't think similar to MD 2nd and 8th in 2002? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

        In 2002 Maryland'd 2nd and 8th districts were gerrymandered by Maryland Dems to eliminate republicans Ehrlich and Morrella.  I believe Ehrlich ditched his seat as a result to run for Gov and Ruppersberger defeated a solid candidate in former GOP rep Bentley 54-45%.  Morella was defeated by Van Hollen 52-47.  Despite well liked GOP candidates and a pro-GOP election Dems still won out.  Seems like that will be the case with Bartlett, with him probably losing something like 55-45%.

      •  I would think (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

        it's gotta help that Garagiola is going out and campaigning in the non-Montgomery parts of the district. The only way Bartlett would win would be to get huge margins out of there, but if Garagiola is actively courting those places then I can't see that happening.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 05:07:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I pretty much agree with your ratings (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BENAWU

      Right now, on the basis of this polling, I'd rate CO-03 as Lean-R, not at least as of yet Tossup. I agree with all your other ratings.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 07:41:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  It's about time these races got polled! (6+ / 0-)

    MI-01 looks surprisingly good but will be a tough one on election day. 50% Obama in Michigan in '08 is really quite red. MD-06 is disappointing but I still think it will be a fairly easy pickup for Dems. Makes me even more disappointed in MD's redistricting map though; we on SSP/DKE were coming up with 8-0 maps or at least solid 7-0-1 with a competitive Eastern Shore district. In the end all they could pass was a fairly weak 7th Democratic district and an uber-packed Republican district that wastes Conservadems on the Eastern Shore. Grrr.......

    IA-04 is about what I expected and I'm glad the DCCC recognizes an opportunity here because there definitely is one. Steve King's popularity in polls is always overstated because I have to believe that voters just don't know how crazy and obstructionist he is.

    OH-16 is surprisingly good! I'm feeling optimistic here. Pretty lousy approvals for Renacci; did they test Sutton's approvals?

    Finally, I guess House Majority Pac wanted PPP to look at races where we are playing offense, but I really wish they had looked at some of our defensive races, too. Especially McIntyre (NC-07), Shuler (NC-08), Tierney (MA-I forget), and Matheson (UT-04). Those races will be just as important for reaching a majority.

  •  These numbers have given me more hope about the (8+ / 0-)

    House than I have had in a while. Hope we see more good news elsewhere in the coming days and weeks.

    Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, One in ONE MILLION that recalled Scott Walker!!!!

    by WisJohn on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 02:28:12 PM PST

  •  Benishek is vulnerable (5+ / 0-)

    He is very unpopular here, and people are realizing that they have made a mistake choosing him over McDowell in 2010. I can't speak for the lower-peninsula portion of MI-1, but I'm almost positive that if the election were held today, Benishek would lose the Upper Peninsula.  The Michigan GOP is doing itself no favors with it's anti-union policy, particularly against teachers, and it's dragging Republicans down statewide.

    I would boldly call this one a tossup, although Cook has it as Leans R and Rothenberg has it as likely R.

    •  the UP is the bluer part of the district, though (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, MichaelNY, bumiputera

      I think Lean R, but Tossup if another poll corroborates this one.

      19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 03:51:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's Yupers vs. Trolls (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Geography matters every bit as much as ideology.

        •  Yoopers* (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MichaelNY, sawolf, arlene

          And yeah, the UP is the bluer part, but I don't think that the Lower Peninsula is exactly enthused with Benishek either. Considering both candidates are from the UP, I would expect that the LP would vote the way it normally does, strongly GOP leaning on the Grand Traverse, Antrim, Petoskey side, and slightly Dem leaning on the Alpena, Presque Isle side, balancing out to a slight GOP lean, which could be offset by a decent McDowell win in the UP.

          •  Isn't there a regional distinction within the UP (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            as well?

            I remember reading that Benishek coming from the Iron Mountain area helped against McDowell from the eastern UP.

            27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

            by bumiputera on Thu Jan 26, 2012 at 06:03:34 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well, to a smaller extend (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              The Eastern UP is the least "Yooperish" area of the region. It doesn't have hardly any Finnish people, and the land is flatter and they get less snow, so it's more similar to the Lower Peninsula. And, our Democratic core is centered around Marquette County, while a few Western UP counties (Gogebic, Ontonagon, and Iron) are solidly Blue and the rest tend to swing. If we had nominated a candidate from, say, Houghton County, Benishek may not have won by quite the margin he won by. But he still would have won.

    •  Benny (6+ / 0-)

      This is another bad candidate that got washed in like a beached whale during the red wave, but when present in a normal(ish) national election comes off as bad as he really is.  Outside of his policies, he's a very pugnacious personality.  Right after he was elected, in a district as physically large as his, he closed down constituent offices and basically told his constituents "catch me if/when you can" on the road.

      It was really a shame that McDowell had to lose that race...and even more a shame that Stupak gave up a seat that he could have defended for one more term giving us a better chance in 2012 of retaining it instead of having to come back from a loss.

      Turnout is going to have to be good in Marquette, though, and I have no doubt to think that it won't.  Obama has personally visisted the place, and he's quite popular there, and it's one of the few cities in the entire district that actually saw population growth over the last decade.

      The only way Benishek wins is if the Dems somehow don't end up nominating McDowell, IMO.  Maybe I'm being unfair to Bailey, but I don't know enough about him.

      •  I love Marquette! (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Woody, LordMike, MichaelNY, MetroGnome

        I live here, and it's just such a beautiful and liberal city. Turnout will be fine, don't worry about that. I also received the honor of being able to speak to the President while he was here, and I know that a lot of locals appreciated that he came and set up a new internet system through the university. I wouldn't expect any decline of support for him in his re-election from Marquette County. Marquette, it seems to me, is like a miniature Boulder, Colorado, or maybe Asheville, North Carolina. It's a solidly liberal university town in the midst of much more conservative and rural territory, but it also has a wealth of beautiful natural resources and tourist attractions. Come visit (we need your money!)

        •  To this day... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, MichaelNY, MenhentheDem

          I've yet to even make it up to Mackinac Bridge, let alone to Marquette.  I've been wanting to do the Bridge Walk every year, and aways wanted to visit Marquette, but something always comes up and it just seems so far.

          I honestly hear nothing but great things about Marquette.  I get mad that we ignore it downstate so much.  I know that not everyone is built for the snow you guys get in the winner, but we should be selling Marquette just as hard as we sell places like Grand Rapids and Ann Arbor, because it's a progressive place that seems to move forward despite the state government's neglect.

    •  Bart Stupak's Old Seat (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

      Gary McDowell got in late due to Stupak's last minute decision not to run for re-election.  It is a big district but winnable for him if he has the energy to cover the area.  Beneshek's anti-union stance as well as his history of nonpayment of child support work against him.

      Don't look back, something may be gaining on you. - L. "Satchel" Paige

      by arlene on Thu Jan 26, 2012 at 04:18:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Il08 and MD06 why did they poll generic D in those (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    2 district. I understand OH-07 where Joyce Healy-Abrams would have very low name rec and probably poll much worse then generic D. Il-08 Duckworth is very high profile with high name rec and a heavy favorite in the primary. She probably would have polled better then a generic D at this point, not to mention I have seen more online advertising for Duckworth then any other candidate running for the house of representatives in 2012 and I live no where near that district. MD06, Rob Garagiola is the favorite in his primary and has a profile in that area as well, so he would poll better then a generic D there also.

    •  Probably just because (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY, sawolf

      Democrats in both districts have primary contests.

      Though it should be noted that in Bartlett's case he has primary opponents as well; however, ousting him in a primary would reduce the GOP's chances of holding the seat from uphill to almost none.  OTOH, in Walsh's case the GOP would probably increase its (slim) chances of holding that seat by turning to someone else without the same profile, gaffes and baggage.

      36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 05:39:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Also, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, SaoMagnifico

    I must add that it seems like recruitment was pretty terrible this cycle. Does anyone else agree? Look at Illinois and Ohio--just awful! We got a few good recruits, but I feel like that was mostly just luck where the candidate in question just happened to want to run.

    Contrast that with the Senate where we have great candidates in open seat races, like Carmona in Arizona, Heitkamp in North Dakota, Berkley in Nevada, Hirono in Hawaii, and maybe even Bob Kerrey in Nebraska.

    •  Illinois (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jeffmd, MichaelNY, askew

      The only district where we did really badly was IL-13. IL-10 wasn't good, but it wasn't awful - I honestly think even Sheyman is favored. We got strong candidates in IL-08, IL-11, and IL-12.

      We also got some pretty good gets in other states: Colorado (Sal Pace, Joe Miklosi), Maryland (Rob Garagiola), CA (Ami Bera, Pete Aguilar, Steve Bennett, Lori Saldana, Mark Takano, Sukhee Kang), NV (Steven Horsford, Dina Titus, Ruben Kihuen, John Oceguera), IN (Brendan Mullen, Jonathan George, Dave Crooks), New Hampshire (Annie Kuster), Arizona (Kyrsten Sinema, David Schapira, Ann Kirkpatrick), New Mexico (Eric Griego), Iowa (Christie Vilsack), Florida ("no not that" Patrick Murphy, Lois Frankel, Leonard Bembry)...

      ok, I'm sure I'm leaving some out, but the list is long enough and I think I made my point, lol.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 03:57:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Of course, it's difficult to measure (0+ / 0-)

        which of those candidates the DCCC actively recruited and convinced and which ones decided mostly on their own. Based on the complete lack of good candidates in certain districts, I'm more inclined to think that most of these decided on their own.

        Christie Vilsack, for instance, I would not call a DCCC recruit. It was pretty public that she clearly wanted to run for a House race, and the 4th district was the only one without a Democratic incumbent. True, she seemed ready to primary Loebsack in the 3rd, and the DCCC did a great job preventing that. But she recruited herself to run. Most of the rematch candidates are in the same vein, I think.

        I think Brendan Mullen is an example of a really great recruit. He doesn't have a necessarily political background and has such a perfect profile for the district so he definitely seems like the type that was approached by the DCCC--recruited.

        There aren't very many candidates for House races this year that strike me as being great recruiting jobs by the DCCC, overall.

    •  Redistricting. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

        It upsets candidate recruitment.

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 04:02:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Agreed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Dems have had very lousy recruiting for 2012 House races.  I'm not sure why exactly that is, but it's quite obvious.  Even in seats like IL-13 which were re-drawn to help a Dem win seem to not be attracting top-tier candidates.  I'm guessing most top-tier Dems didn't originally think 2012 would be a favorable Dem year, though of late it seems more likely it will be favorable.

      Is Carmona  really a "great" candidate?  He seems 2nd tier at best IMO.  But with Flake, who I'd call a pretty mediocre GOP frontrunner, it's winnable.

      •  By Arizona standards, Carmona is great (9+ / 0-)

        He has an excellent resume, just no campaign experience. And considering most of the Arizona Democrats who might otherwise be considered top-shelf have their only campaign experience in either suffering massive losses or running in very Democratic parts of the state (or are currently recovering from being shot through the head by a lunatic), Carmona doesn't look too shabby.

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 04:19:19 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Many of these Dems could run in 2014 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        I personally think 2014 could be another 1998 style year if Democrats fall 10 or so seats short of retaking the House this year.  The economy will probably be in boom mode in 2014 and  Democrats can run against the "do nothing Congress" in 2014.  

        •  I would hope so (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Woody, MichaelNY, bumiputera

          Because the 2014 Senate cycle is going to be another brutal one.  Lots of tough seats to defend.

          AK - Begich - Kind of a fluke win in 2008, re-election in Alaska is going to be brutal
          IA - Harkin
          LA - Landrieu (claims she's running, but I could see a retirement given how hard it'll be for re-election in LA)
          MT - Baucus (also claims he's running, but I could see him retiring)
          AR - Pryor (more popular than Lincoln was, but AR is trending away from Dems)
          CO - Udall
          MI - Levin (potential retirement)
          MN - Franken (He's been a more effective Senator than I originally thought he'd be)
          NH - Shaheen
          NJ - Lautenberg (possible retirement)
          NM - Udall
          NC - Hagen
          OR - Merkley
          SD - Johnson (I'd say likely retirement)
          VA - Warner
          WV - Rockefeller (possible retirement)

          Slim pickings on the GOP-held seats given how successful Dems were in 2006.  Only two GOP-held seats stick out as pickup opportunities.

          KY - McConnell - Not particularly popular and in the spotlight as Minority Leader
          ME - Collins - Hopefully she retires

          •  We will see losses in the Senate (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

            But I would not be surprised to see small Democratic gains in the House as Democrats didnt get a lot of their top recruits in 2012, who waited until 2014.  

            I dont see another wave happening in 2014 unless Democrats regain the House and hold the Senate.  Having Boehner's mug to run against will help big time in 2014.  

          •  Who is going to run against Shaheen? (0+ / 0-)

            Or Udall, or Pryor?  Without Democrats in control of Congress, it will be easier to defend many of these seats.  Id say Landreu is the only certain loss here.  

            •  Not saying these are all guaranteed losses (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Woody, MichaelNY

              I'm not sure about Begich's approvals but given it's Alaska we're talking about I'd say it's no better than a Tossup regardless of whom he runs against.  Arkansas I mention simply because it's clear that state is trending away from Dems very quickly.  I think Pryor is a more skilled politician than Lincoln was, but I'll bet he gets a tough challenge.  

              Most likely both Udalls are fine.  I'm not too terribly worried about NM and CO Senate races.  Only mentioned them because they're freshmen in swing-ish states.

            •  Landrieu is no certain loss (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Zack from the SFV

              During the Katrina debacle, I would have thought so, but more recent opinion polls have shown her in much better shape than I would have expected.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 07:50:03 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Dems are getting slaughtered in Louisiana (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                jncca

                And I'm having a hard time believing it's a short-term thing.  No Dem received more than 32% of the vote in all of Louisiana's 2011 statewide races and we got killed in the state legislature races.  Landrieu may be a known commodity and even liked, but the Louisiana electorate hates Dems these days.

                Landrieu won by very slim margins in both 1996 and 2002.  In 2008 (a very pro-Dem year nationally) against a weak GOP opponent she only won 52-46.  Unless 2014 is a VERY Democratic year I can't see her having much chance of winning.  Like I said before, my gut tells me she'll see poor polling and end up just retiring like Bill Nelson did this year.

                •  One Scenario Where Landrieu Hangs On in 2014..... (0+ / 0-)

                  A scenario where Romney/Gingrich becomes President, Boehner remains Speaker of the House with a majority much the size of the current one, and Mitch McConnell becomes the Majority Leader of the Senate, immediately doing away with the filibuster and enabling Republicans to ram through Paul Ryan's vision for America despite 76% public disapproval.  If that hellscape becomes a reality, then Landrieu hangs on along with Pryor, Begich, and Rockefeller.  Any other scenario and the aforementioned foursome have major league problems.

                  •  Who I think hangs on anyway of those 4. (0+ / 0-)

                    Pryor and Rockefeller (Rockefeller a lock if he runs again).  GradyDem can vouch for Pryor's high favorables, even in the NW region.
                    Landrieu has surprisingly high approvals (low 50's).
                    Begich is doing fine, but that is too nebulous.  He's probably least likely to win, but it depends on who runs.

                    "I had little green doctors pounding on my back. It is not a question of being safe. I can defend myself." -Former Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY)

                    by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 08:21:14 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Just remember while 2011 was a bad year for dems (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

                    in Louisiana which Chad pointed out above, no incumbent dems lost re-election, even the ones in blood red districts that even Landrieu didnt carry in '08. If she still has 50% approval ratings like she does now, she still has a chance to win.

                •  Got killed in the state legislative races? (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, Stephen Schmitz

                  Dems only had one single net loss in the State House and all Senate seats they contested or had incumbents running they won.  Far from the "killing" you described.  Even Ben Nevers (D) won re-election in a Senate seat McCain won 2-1.  And no defections since then from anyone.

                  "I had little green doctors pounding on my back. It is not a question of being safe. I can defend myself." -Former Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY)

                  by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 08:18:25 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Polls keep showing (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

                  her with approvals in the low 50's.

                  "I had little green doctors pounding on my back. It is not a question of being safe. I can defend myself." -Former Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY)

                  by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 08:22:28 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  I really want to understand (6+ / 0-)

                  where this slaughtered thing comes from in the State Legislative races.

                  In the State Senate, Democrats contested every seat they held but two. They won every single contested seat that they held prior to the election. Some seats were up in the 60%s for McCain.

                  In the State House, Democrats lost one seat, and ran away with some races that not even Mary Landrieu won in her 2008 Senate reelection bid!

                  So where is this Democrats are doing horrible thing coming from?

                  •  I was basing my opinion on seats held (0+ / 0-)

                    Dems control just 38% of the State Senate seats and 42% of the State House seats.  When the bar is already that low it's a bit hard to get any lower.

                    •  Actually, if you look at a lot of the seats (0+ / 0-)

                      I'd say it is possible to get a lot lower. Not sure of the exact amount but there are at least a high single digit amount of seats that Democrats still hold that Obama got in the 30%s in.  
                      Some of the people who won them in 2011 were not incumbents, btw.

                •  Bill Nelson is running for reelection in Florida (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Zack from the SFV

                  You mean Ben Nelson.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 09:49:27 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  My bet is Tim Griffin will run for the Senate. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera, ChadmanFL
    •  Also, there is Senate candidate in MA who (0+ / 0-)

      I heard is good. What was her name again? :)

      I do agree, about House recruitment though, especially in Illinois.

      Bill Foster is good get, and so are Duckworth and Raja in Il-08.

      But not getting stronger candidates in Il-10 or 12 is a big failure, imo. We still could win those seats though.

  •  Loving the Joe the Plumber ad (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    "Remember Joe the Plumber?"

    kinda

    "Send Joe to Washington"

    uh...

    at least he hooked up with the guy who put the Romney ad on every page

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 03:56:35 PM PST

  •  Regarding Bartlett's positions on issues (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I watched a couple documentaries of late relating to oil and energy issues.  On two different documentaries Rep. Bartlett was interviewed and came off sounding somewhat liberal on those issues.  Anyone know what the deal is?  He always seemed to me to be extremely conservative across the board, even if he's less abrasive than most GOP House members.  Is he really a moderate on energy issues or just blowing smoke?

  •  How does Michele Bachmann's district look? (0+ / 0-)

    I'd heard that it had been redistricted in a way that was extremely unfavorable to her.  But she announced that she's running for re-election.  How do things look for her?

    "We must move forward, not backward, upward not forward, and always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom." - Kodos

    by Jon Stafford on Thu Jan 26, 2012 at 04:06:10 PM PST

  •  How could anyone (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Says Who

    not vote for Joe Walsh? He simply oozes sincerity through every perfectly capped tooth.

    Listen, are you breathing just a little and calling it a life? -- Mary Oliver

    by Mnemosyne on Thu Jan 26, 2012 at 04:20:25 PM PST

  •  Dear God, let Joe Walsh and Steve King LOSE! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Marjmar, cocinero, MichaelNY

    "The battle, sir, is not to the strong alone; it is to the vigilant, the active, the brave." -- Patrick Henry

    by BornDuringWWII on Thu Jan 26, 2012 at 04:30:08 PM PST

  •  Its important not to just beat Joe Walsh (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Marjmar, cocinero

    but to emasculate him politically and let him find a job he can do. He is a sick man, he is hostile to his own constituency, and he owes his children money that he put into his campaign. Meanwhile there is talk he was promised a $5million whitewash from Boehner, what a waste. Lets not just beat Joe Walsh, let's show the TeaParty and all the Pledgers that this is our land, not theirs. Please support Tammy Duckworth, a war veteran who represents Illinois naturally, without RNC propping up. Joe, GO, and take your sliminess with you.

    How to be a social AND fiscal conservative... human life begins at conception and becomes a corporation, my friend.

    by Says Who on Thu Jan 26, 2012 at 04:40:05 PM PST

  •  Joe Walsh (0+ / 0-)

    R-ASSHOLE!

    I'm surprised his numbers are [that] high!

    "The most potent weapon in the hands of the oppressor is the mind of the oppressed." ~ Steven Biko

    by Marjmar on Thu Jan 26, 2012 at 04:41:38 PM PST

  •  So, is Mr/Ms Generic starting to campaign? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    It is great that a generic Democrat would win but do we have real candidates in those districts?

    I have never been able to figure out if Fox is the propaganda arm of the Republican party or is the Republican Party the political subsidiary of Fox.

    by Dave from Oregon on Thu Jan 26, 2012 at 04:42:23 PM PST

  •  the difference wil be turn out. Mid-term elections (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cocinero, MichaelNY

    always have lower turn out, and Obama will bring votes down to other Democrats. It is very important to get out now to volunteer  for Obama and Democrats in your state.

  •  I live in OH-06 (0+ / 0-)

    and will not be voting for Johnson for any number of reasons. His election was a real surprise for me. He is an advocate of "fracking" and for that reason alone I will do what I can to see him ousted. As for Charlie Wilson, he's a Blue Dog and I'll have a very hard time supporting his return to DC. I sure wish we had a more progressive candidate than Wilson to run on the Democratic ticket. So far, the only guy I feel good voting for is Sherrod Brown. Wilson is a better choice than Johnson, no doubt, but I'll be holding my nose if I vote for Wilson at all.

    •  So do I (0+ / 0-)

      As far as I know, Johnson still hasn't moved into the district as required and he likes to offer people gas cards to do his phone banking for his campaign.

      He was also vocal on supporting SB5.

      I know he's in the sucking up mode, because we just got word he's sending in aides to the area to look at the programs like Meals on Wheels, and to "offer" his help in them.

      I was hoping our state district rep would file to run against this asshat. The man blatantly lied to my face about his abortion votes.

  •  HAHAHAHAHA (0+ / 0-)

    It is a terrible thing to see and have no vision. ~ Helen Keller

    by Pam from Calif on Thu Jan 26, 2012 at 05:23:13 PM PST

  •  Some perspective - Charlie Cook ratings (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Here are the race ratings for these 8 seats by Charlie Cook/Cook Political Report.

    IL-08 - Likely D
    IA-04 - Lean R
    MI-01 - Lean R
    OH-06 - Lean R
    OH-07 - Likely R
    OH-16 - Tossup
    CO-03 - Likely R
    MD-06 - Lean D

    Of note is that he shifted MI-01 from Likely to Leans R today.  Guess he took note of these polls.  Only two of these eight polled seats are races where the consensus seemed to be a likely Dem takeover.  I'd take it as a positive sign we're tied or ahead in 5 of the 8 races and within the margin of error in 6 of 8.  Hopefully we get more polls like these in the future to give a better indication of where the House races stand.  

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