Rep. Dan Burton (R)
Funny enough, just yesterday we published a new edition of our House Open Seat Watch, and Dan Burton was most definitely on our watch list. Today, he comes off, because the 73-year-old, 15-term Republican veteran just announced his retirement, despite having said back in May that he'd seek re-election. Undoubtedly the stiff primary challenge he was facing played a big role in changing his mind. Last cycle, Burton escaped the GOP primary with just 30 percent of the vote, thanks to what I've dubbed the "clown-car effect": The more challengers that pile into a primary against an incumbent, the more ways the anti-incumbent vote can get split, and the fewer votes you ultimately need to survive. In 2010, the field fractured six ways and Burton was the last clown left standing.
But that was the second close call in a row for Burton, who—despite his lengthy tenure—long ago earned a reptutation as something of a weirdo and an outsider. (You may recall the infamous incident in the 1990s when Burton tried to "prove" that White House aide Vince Foster's suicide was actually a murder—by inviting reporters to watch him shoot watermelons in his back yard.) In 2008, former Marion County Coroner John McGoff nearly unseated him in the primary, with Burton hanging on by a tight 52-45 margin.
Another one-on-one matchup was therefore probably the scariest scenario for him in 2012, but it seemed like the clown car would be in effect yet again. A whole host of heavyweight challengers—including McGoff, former U.S. Attorney Susan Brooks, and ex-Rep. David McIntosh—were all lining up in the primary once more, risking a repeat of the 2010 pileup. But even a multi-way primary is no guarantee of survival; two years ago, then-Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick lost to Hansen Clarke in a Democratic primary in Michigan, despite numerous challengers in the field. I'd guess the polling didn't augur in favor of a third successful Houdini-like escape, and Burton probably figured it was better to walk out on his own terms than have his luck run out on him at the ballot box.
This is an unfortunate development for Democrats, since this seat was made considerably bluer (albeit not blue) in redistricting, going from a district McCain won by 19 points to one he won by just six. And Democrats have a legit-seeming candidate here in the form of state Rep. Scott Reske. His ideal opponent would have been a battered and bruised Burton, but at least there's still the possibility of a messy and damaging GOP nomination battle even without the incumbent, so this might nevertheless wind up being a sleep "race to watch."
And no matter what, watermelons everywhere can now feel much safer.