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Leading Off:

FL-17, FL-18, FL-22, FL-Sen: It seems like the fix must be in, because even though Florida still doesn't have a final congressional map—there are, in fact, two competing versions circulating—some members of Congress are already announcing their re-election plans. It sounds, though, like incumbents are expecting the proposal put forth by the state House to rule the day. I say that because unlike the state Senate map, the House plan completely renumbers the entire state, from north to south, and the announcements we're hearing so far all appear to rely on those new numbers.

We start with GOP Rep. Tom Rooney, who says he'll move from what the House map designates as the 18th (his current district number is 16) to the brand-new (and thus open) 17th to seek re-election. This is somewhat surprising, seeing as Rooney is from Tequesta on the Atlantic coast, while the new 17th covers a vast, Everglades-y swath of the middle of the state and actually touches Gulf waters to the west. The old 16th does overlap considerably with this seat, though, which went for John McCain by a 56-43 margin. It's possible Rooney could have some primary company here, but he's the likely favorite for both his party's nomination and the general.

Rooney's announcement, in turn, led to another, by Tea Party favorite Allen West. West says he, too, will shuffle northward and run in the seat Rooney's vacating, the 18th. Like Rooney, West also doesn't live in his new district, but in point of fact, he doesn't live in his current seat, the 22nd, either. Ironically, West's hometown of Plantation (they could come up with a better name, right?) got moved into the new 22nd (which by chance keeps the same district number), but at 57-43 Obama, there was no way West had any hope here. The great news is that the 18th is very swingish (51-48 Obama), so West should still be eminently beatable with the right candidate. (The question is who?)

But wait, there's one more domino: Former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner will reportedly drop out of the GOP Senate primary (where Rep. Connie Mack's entry reduced him to schmendrick status) and run in West's seat, the 22nd. That seems like an extremely uphill climb for any Republican, but particularly so for someone as conservative as Hasner. The two Democrats already running here, Lois Frankel and Patrick Murphy, had different reactions: Frankel promises to stay put in the 22nd, while Murphy doesn't seem quite so certain that we do actually know what the final maps look like (which is how we feel) and says he'll "continue to monitor the redistricting process closely."

4Q Fundraising:

CT-Sen: William Tong (D): $160K raised, $300K cash-on-hand

NY-Sen: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D): $1.8 mil raised, $8.1 mil cash-on-hand

OH-Sen: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D): $1.6 mil raised, $5 mil cash-on-hand

PA-Sen: Sen. Bob Casey (D): $1.1 mil raised, $4.3 mil cash-on-hand

WI-Sen: Tommy Thompson (R): $656K raised, $544K cash-on-hand

Senate:

MT-Sen, NM-Sen (PDF): Just a day after they dropped a poll in Montana's Senate race on behalf of Karl Rove's American Crossroads, now Republican pollster POS is back with another one... but this is a bipartisan effort conducted along with Dem pollster Fairbank Maslin, on behalf of Colorado College. (Why would Colorado College be polling Montana and New Mexico? It's not that there's nothing to poll in Colorado in 2012, but rather it's part of a Rocky Mountain states analysis that's mostly about conservation but also includes some horserace numbers.)

At any rate, this look at the race finds it much closer than the Crossroads poll's gaudy 10-point lead for Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg; here, Rehberg is leading Dem incumbent Jon Tester by 3: 46-43 (close in line with how PPP has always seen the race). Meanwhile, they see a closer race in New Mexico than other pollsters have: they have it at 45 for Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich and 44 for Republican ex-Rep. Heather Wilson (with no numbers for the other candidates in the race). Digging deeper, they also have gubernatorial approvals in six states (all these states, with the exception of Arizona, love their governors), and a warning siren for Orrin Hatch, regarding whom 58% say time for a "new person." (David Jarman)

NY-Sen: Oh, you sorry-ass d-bag—I'm going to miss you! Like having the cops raid your frat party just minutes after you've tapped the first keg, Marc Cenedella's nascent Senate campaign has already come to an end. Cenedella, a wealthy businessman whom Republicans vainly hoped might pose a challenge to Dem Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, was very quickly brought low by widespread publicity over years of douchey, low-brow blog posts (sample topic: "dating advice for sluts"). And in classic fratboy fashion, he signed off with a whiny, fact-free rant:

“I will not be running for the United States Senate in 2012. I have given a run careful consideration, and I believe Senator Gillibrand is beatable,” he said in a statement. “Her early and unfounded attacks on me, her weak poll numbers, and her lethargic quarterly fundraising results all point to a politician in trouble — and encourage me to challenge her.”
Gillibrand's "lethargic" fundraising: $1.8 mil in the fourth quarter, $10.2 mil on the year, and $8.2 mil cash-on-hand. What's so funny is that earlier in the day, a Cenedella spokesman said the exact opposite:
"Kirsten Gillibrand is always fundraising. Virtually every email she sends is a not-so-artfully masqued appeal for cash. Anyone who runs against her will know, as a given, that she will be well funded. She is a favorite of the Washington money types."
And Marc Cenedella is the favorite of nobody at all. Thanks for playing—see you next time! P.S. Major props to the—I assume—Gillibrand oppo team for laying Cenedella on the mat with this hit. I didn't think it would be a killshot, but it sure as hell turned out to be the knockout blow.

Gubernatorial:

MO-Gov, MO-Sen, MO-LG: PPP has numbers out for the various Republican primaries in Missouri, and the most amusing definitely belong to the gubernatorial race. Wealthy plastics magnate, home ec major, and fraternity brother Dave Spence—who was supposed to be The Answer for the GOP—trails Some Dude Bill Randles by a (wait for it) 15-12 margin. As Tom Jensen says: "[I]t's not often we poll a race and find 73% of voters undecided." No kidding.

The Senate numbers are interesting as well. It's starting to look like a three-way race, with ex-Treasurer Sarah Steelman at 32, Rep. Todd Akin at 23, and businessman John Brunner at 18. That's a big change from September, when it was 40 Steelman, 29 Akin, and 6 Brunner. But Brunner, despite a spate of bad press for skipping out on candidate debates, has put a million bucks of his own money into the race, which probably explains his surge.

Finally, a few Republicans got in to the lt. gov. race back when it looked like Peter Kinder would seek a promotion to the governor's mansion. But even though Kinder's fallen back to seeking re-election as LG, these opponents may not be in any hurry to get out. Kinder's numbers are atrocious, scoring only 37%, while state Sen. Brad Lager is at 12, state Sen. Luann Ridgeway is at 9, and attorney Mike Carter at 5. As Tom notes, though, if the anti-Kinder forces can't coalesce around a single challenger, he could skate by with a plurality.

NC-Gov, NC-11: So it turns out that all those sources claiming Rep. Heath Shuler was likely to run for governor were full of it. The third-term Democrat says he won't be a candidate in the suddenly-open gubernatorial race. Presumably that means he'll stick with his plans to seek re-election, though commenter sawolf notes that in the internals of PPP's new poll, Shuler only scores a 32-42 favorability rating in North Carolina's 828 area code, which covers all of his current and new turf plus about half of Republican Rep. Patrick McHenry's district. It's obviously not a perfect overlay for the 11th District, but it's not an especially positive sign.

And here's one more person to take off the Democratic gubernatorial short list: Charlotte's up-and-coming mayor Anthony Foxx says he gave it some serious consideration, but won't run for statewide office "this cycle."

Finally, while we're still on the topic, there's one (very big) name out there that we still haven't heard from: former White House chief-of-staff Erskine Bowles, who served under Bill Clinton and then later ran two unsuccessful campaigns for Senate in the Tarheel State in back-to-back cycles (2002 and 2004). Despite that track record, the state has changed in the intervening decade or so, and what's more Bowles polls the best among all potential Democrats, according to PPP. Bowles, for whatever reason, is refusing to answer reporters' phone calls, but according to Rob Christensen at the News & Observer, people close to Bowles are saying he's "seriously weighing" a bid. (Incidentally, the linked article offers some good background on Bowles' prior two statewide runs.) (David Nir & David Jarman)

House:

AZ-08: We've gotten our first official Democratic entrant in the special election to replace Gabby Giffords, who just resigned last week. As most expected, it's state Rep. Matt Heinz, a Tucson-area physician, though with a Feb. 27 filing deadline, more Dems should be expected. A number of Republicans (Frank Antentori, Jesse Kelly, Dave Sitton) are exploring or are already in the field, so Heinz will need to catch-up. [Rim shot!] (David Jarman)

CA-26: You've gotta wonder what prompted this: Tom Del Beccaro, chair of the California GOP, just endorsed state Sen. Tony Strickland in the hotly contested (and open) 26th CD, even though there's another Republican running as well, Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks.

CA-??: At this point, I haven't the faintest clue what district to slot GOP Rep. David Dreier into, since there pretty much isn't anywhere he can plausibly run for re-election. He still hasn't, however, managed to reach the final stage of the Kübler-Ross grieving cycle—acceptance—so we sit here, waiting for him to announce his seemingly inevitable retirement. The latest tea leaf that Dreier's merely playing out the string: He raised just $10K in the fourth quarter of last year.

IN-05: In case you hadn't seen the news yet, veteran Republican Rep. Dan Burton is hanging up his spurs after 15 terms. He managed to survive two stiff primary challenges in a row, but evidently he felt the third time wasn't likely to be the charm. Click the link for our full analysis of Burton's retirement (and what's likely to come next) at Daily Kos Elections.

IL-08: It must be endorsement week for the Illinois Federation of Teachers. Right after giving their support to Ilya Sheyman in the 10th CD, they've announced that they're backing Tammy Duckworth in the 8th. (Both are Democrats.)

NC-11: When we re-introduced you to young Republican Ethan Wingfield on Monday, we speculated that Wingfield's showy $204K-in-ten-days fundraising blitz may have been partially self-funded, since he'd previously said he was capable of doing so. Well, turns out that was exactly right, as Wingfield now copped to the fact that about half of that was from his own pocket. (In fact, Wingfield put out a pretty defensive-sounding e-mail about it, in response to Politico's Dave Catanese going on the warpath about being misled.) (David Jarman)

NJ-05: Passaic County Freeholder Terry Duffy is entering the race against GOP Rep. Scott Garrett in the redrawn 5th District, joining Teaneck Deputy Mayor Adam Gussen in the Democratic primary. However, local Dems are still waiting to see whether beloved former New York Giants linebacker Harry Carson will get in, too—and for what it's worth, Duffy sounds willing to defer to him if he does. (“It won’t be the end of the world if Terry Duffy is not the congressman," he says, speaking in the Bob Dole-person.)

NJ-09: Bill Pascrell outraised Steve Rothman, his fellow congressman and rival for the Democratic nomination in the redrawn 9th, by a 2-to-1 ratio in the fourth quarter... but I can't say I'm impressed by either haul. Pascrell took in just $195K and Rothman a mere $99K. However, they both have a lot of cash on hand: Rothman's got $1.7 mil and Pascrell $1.5 mil.

NY-22: Even though New York's 22nd Congressional District stands a good chance of getting carved up for parts now that Rep. Maurice Hinchey has announced his retirement, that hasn't stopped at least one candidate from declaring for what is for now an open seat. Former Ulster County Democratic Party Chairman (and former federal and local prosecutor) Julian Schreibman announced on Tuesday that he wants to follow in Hinchey's footsteps. It's certainly not impossible that this seat will survive more or less intact, though even if not, Schreibman might eventually find himself in another district that could still use a good Democratic candidate.

OR-01: As expected, Democrat Suzanne Bonamici won the special election in Oregon's 1st Congressional District last night. The most notable takeaway is that, as of press time, Bonamici held a wider-than-expected 15-point lead over Republican Rob Cornilles, 54-39. A pair of somewhat older public polls (one from PPP and the other from SUSA) both showed her winning by 11. It looks like the DCCC's early investment here locked this race in and just made it impossible for the GOP to compete. Congratulations to Bonamici, and now, on to Arizona's 8th!

PA-04: NRCC deputy political director Brock McCleary, who had been considering a bid, says he won't run for retiring Rep. Todd Platts's seat in the redrawn 4th District.

WA-01: Darcy Burner is out with another poll of the Democratic primary, but as you know in Washington (and in California), there's really no such precise thing. That's because all candidates from all parties are thrown together in a "top-two" primary (also known as a jungle primary), where, as the name implies, the two highest vote-getters—regardless of party affiliation—advance to the general. Burner's survey didn't include the lone Republican in the race, John Koster, but that may not matter too much, since he's almost assured of finishing in the top two slots. Kyle Trygstad sums up the results:

The poll, conducted by Lake Research Partners, found Burner with 45 percent among voters who picked a Democrat in the top-two primary. Burner was followed by former state Rep. Laura Ruderman with 15 percent, state Sen. Steve Hobbs with 13 percent, former Microsoft executive Suzan DelBene with 12 percent, state Rep. Roger Goodman with 10 percent and tech executive Darshan Rauniyar with 5 percent.
Burner's take sounds very similar to what Lake found in their October poll (PDF) on her behalf. In that survey, Burner had 47%, though other candidates' shares were not revealed.

WI-02: The great thing about politics is that no matter how much you know, think you know, or try to know, there are always things you simply can't and won't know. Case in point: Pretty much every analyst has been treating the race to fill Rep. Tammy Baldwin's open House seat as a two-way contest between state Reps. Kelda Roys and Mark Pocan in the Democratic primary. But seemingly out of nowhere, Dane County Treasurer Dave Worzala outraised both Roys and Pocan in the fourth quarter of 2011. Worzala took in $223K, while Pocan raised $151K and Roys just $77K. Also of note: Only Worzala pre-released his cash-on-hand figures (he has $252K in the bank). This definitely seems like a game-changer, and Worzala clearly deserves a lot more attention than he's been getting. I will readily I admit that I was one of those analysts who had framed this race incorrectly, but like they say about baseball, this is why they play the games. (Hat-tip: Gpack3)

WV-03: It certainly took him long enough to decide: Republican state Del. Rick Snuffer first started mooting a run against Dem Rep. Nick Rahall last May, and he's only now decided to finally pull the trigger. As we noted back then, Snuffer also challenged Rahall in 2004, a match Rahall won by a punishing 65-35 margin. Hopefully history will repeat itself—or, as Mark Twain said, at least rhyme. However, this southern West Virginia district has evolved from a Democratic stronghold to one of the reddest ones held by a Democrat (at least at the presidential level), so things could indeed play out differently this time. (David Nir & David Jarman)

Other Races:

WI Recall: Wisconsin Democrats unveiled their candidates in the three main recalls of Republican state senators, giving us exactly the slate that had been expected. In SD-21, former state Sen. John Lehman will run against state Sen. Van Wanggaard, who defeated Lehman in 2010 by five points. In SD-23, former state Rep. Kristin Dexter will face off against state Sen. Terry Moulton; Dexter very narrowly lost her re-election bid last cycle by less than half-a-percent in a race that eventually went to a recount. And finally, in SD-29, state Rep. Donna Seidel will challenge state Sen. Pam Galloway. It seems like we've scored solid gets all around, given that all three Dems have won legislative elections before. Democrats only need one victory to retake the state Senate, though control will once again be up for grabs during the regularly-scheduled elections this November.

Grab Bag:

American Crossroads: Tuesday was the filing deadline not only for federal campaigns, but also for Karl Rove's American Crossroads, which is of course a super PAC. AC said it raised $51 million in 2011, so it will sure as hell be interesting to see who's funding them.

Demographics: A new study from several Harvard and Duke professors finds a heartening drop in racial segregation in America, though many barriers still exist. The nation's level of segregation is the lowest since 1910, with few truly all-white neighborhoods left (though that has more to do with Latinos and Asians moving into those areas). Only 20% of African-Americans live in neighborhoods that are 80% or more black, compared with 50% who did 50 years ago. While regentrification plays a role, a much bigger factor is African-Americans moving from city cores to the suburbs, especially in the Sun Belt. (David Jarman)

Redistricting Roundup:

FL Redistricting: This is kind of a "no duh" update, but the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals just upheld a lower court ruling that found no constitutional problems with Florida's new "Fair Districts" amendments, which require lawmakers to draw new maps without regard to protecting incumbents and with an eye toward compactness. You've gotta wonder if Dem Rep. Corrine Brown (and her BFF, Republican Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart) will finally give up the fight, or if they'll make one last attempt to get heard by the Supreme Court.

TX Redistricting: Various news reports are saying that settlement talks in the Texas redistricting cases—which sounded like they were going hot-and-heavy over the weekend—have since "stalled." Kath Haenschen at Burnt Orange Report thinks that attempts at reaching a deal were part of a "divide-and-conquer" strategy on the part of Texas's Republican attorney general, though, so if there's no agreement (or partial agreement) in the works, that may well be a good thing.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (4+ / 0-)

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 05:00:08 AM PST

  •  It'd be great if Patrick Murphy (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    followed West into the 18th and stopped a divisive, expensive Democratic primary in 22nd.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

    by ArkDem14 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 05:10:43 AM PST

    •  Disagree (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, TofG

      I think he should do whatever he feels best here. He lives in this district and has just as much of a shot in the primary as Frankel, so I see no reason that he should be the one to get pressure to drop out.

      If he gets promised finical support to run in the 18th, and feels its a better option, then good for him, but I see no reason why it has to be him that gets pressure to switch races, honestly I do not think a primary would kill us here anyway.

      Truth be told I am not a fan of Frankel at all, and think we can do much better in this district. Plus I have read that she left office rather unpopular, so it stands to reason she is probably the weaker of the two candidates anyway.

    •  He might well do that (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, redrelic17

      Although he's remaining noncomittal.

      http://atr.rollcall.com/...

      •  Frankel is not the terrible candidate (3+ / 0-)

        some are making her out to be, and she has raised a ton of money plus has the establishment backing and a lifetime career in Democratic politics.

        Murphy is a former Crist backer who just entered Democratic politics. He doesn't have a political base in the district and so it wouldn't hurt him to run in the 18th where he can still run against Allen West, his original target, and has a seat that's a better fit for him. And, best of all, two or three million dollars of Democratic resources won't be wasted in a primary.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 06:22:58 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  FL18 and FL22 (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, ArkDem14, jncca

          If Murphy is the party's best bet to beat West in an R+2 seat, then it makes sense for him to run there as long as Frankel can nail down a D+4 seat.  

          D+4 seats aren't safe D and the lowest-risk play might be to run Murphy in FL22 if they think he has a better chance to win the general than Frankel does, but there are more R+X than D+X seats overall and to retake the house the Dems will have to seriously contest all the R+2 seats.

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 07:58:21 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Is this not the quandry (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera

            The Democrats have to run in R+2 districts, but individuals can run wherever they want.  If the DCCC doesn't step in and commit 7-figure funding to someone running against West, should we really think Murphy should just volunteer to do it because its better for the party.

            Its probably better for the Democratic party that I sell my car and give the money to the DCCC, but that ain't going to happen.  To me, that's what Murphy is facing.  the DCCC has the cash, they need to tell Murphy he'll have the money needed, and they need to do it ASAP.

  •  Anyone got any thoughts on why PPP was off? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, askew

    Anyone got any thoughts on why PPP was off the mark in Florida, they seemed to be doing pretty well with the primaries before that (though I might be misremembering).

    Thoughts?

  •  HI Sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    Both Democrats lead, but Case preforms slightly better. Though chances are pretty good that Hirono is under polled, as we have seen this many times in Hawaii. Even if Case did win this slightly easier, which I don't buy for a second, then I'm still 100% behind Hirono. Both will win without much issues anyway and the thought of Case as a Senator really scares me.

    http://www.civilbeat.com/...

  •  And the Florida polling winner is: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    aggou, Setsuna Mudo, tk421

    Quinnipaic.  Nailed the 14 point spread.  Runners up:  SUSA and Marist, at 15.

    Loser:  Insider Advantage, with only a 5 point margin.

  •  Gingrich might not have even called? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, Taget

    20, Male. DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

    by aggou on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 05:36:50 AM PST

    •  Newt hates Mitt (7+ / 0-)

      This isn't all that surprising.  Its kind of a modified scorched earth campaign for newt now.

      •  That is why he will stay in until the bitter end. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 06:00:38 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  God willing (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, Setsuna Mudo

          I honestly think the 4-way race could deny Mitt the delegates to win, though things would have to fall just so for it to happen.  

          Much would depend on Santorum's strength in PA and Newt being able to win Texas, both of which I'm not certain of today.

          •  I wish (0+ / 0-)

            but I think this is pretty unlikely. Both Newt and Santorum have huge revenue problems (Newt outraised in Q4 by...wait for it...Herman Cain), and so up and until the very last second before each drops out they're going to be insisting to  the press that they're in it 'for the long hall.' Saying anything else is completely self defeating, but we shouldn't take their declarations seriously.

            Now maybe you'll tell me Friess and Adelson and whoever else are enjoying the ride and have millions of dollars left to burn on hopeless candidates. Yeah I didn't think so.

            •  Adelson is a mutli-billionaire Republican (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jncca

              it's what they do. Gingrich is a bitter and angry man right now. He hates Romney. He will stay in the race as long as he possibly can. The only thing that could stop him would be the lack of money.

              20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

              by ndrwmls10 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 06:56:58 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Does money really matter everywhere (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera, TofG

                I mean Newt could have $1B and he's not going to beat Mitt in many of the states with high Mormon populations.  And Romney probably won't be getting nay decisive victories out of Alabama any time soon.

                That said i don't discount money, but the longer this goes and the seemingly endless parade of debates always gives Mitt a chance at a good performance and Romney a chance at a bad performance.  Both have shown they can do both.

                it would require an extreme threading of the needle to deny Mitt the delegates to win, but it's technically feasible (but probably only if everyone stays in the whole way).  Santorum dropping out would give Romney a massive win in PA and Newt dropping out makes Texas better for Romney (if we believe Perry can deliver for Newt :-0))

                Still, the longer this drags out I tend to think its better.  The longer someone is lobbing insults at Romney who isn't a Democrat the better, no question.  Democrats are outsourcing this job to an America...Newt Gingrich lol.

                •  There are only two states (0+ / 0-)

                  with high enough Mormon populations to matter. There are not "many" such states.

                  Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

                  by anastasia p on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 08:20:17 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Sure there are (0+ / 0-)

                    It doesn't have to be a significant portion of the population.  it has to be a significant portion of the voter turnout of the GOP primary electorate.

                    Figure that Romney romps in ID and UT because of it.  WY and NV also have decent sized populations too.  And it's also a decent helper in states like AZ and CO where he already has built-in advantages.  

              •  5 million in FL wasn't enough (0+ / 0-)

                what was it I read -- his ad spending was 1/3 that of Mitt?

                and he didn't let Newt's SuperPAC use it for attack ads.

                "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                by tietack on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 07:18:30 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Woke up on the wrong side of the bed? (0+ / 0-)
              Now maybe you'll tell me Friess and Adelson and whoever else are enjoying the ride and have millions of dollars left to burn on hopeless candidates. Yeah I didn't think so.

              this seems kind of chippy to me.  i suggested nothing like this, so not sure why you put these words in my mouth or sued the snide "I didn't think so" remark at the end.

              •  Huh (0+ / 0-)

                Sorry you got that impression, it was not my intention at all.

                All (I thought) I was saying was that if you expect Newt and Santorum to survive through March and April, they will need money, or at least SuperPAC support. Maybe (I suggested) you thought the latter might be a likelier possibility, given their obvious difficulty raising traditional campaign funds; that the billionaires would keep donating to otherwise hopeless campaigns. "I [don't] think" that they would do "so", not being fools. That's all I meant.

                Again, sorry I came off the wrong way.

      •  makes sense (0+ / 0-)

        Newt is a four-star narcissistic egomaniac. He's going to take everything personally.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 07:59:59 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  There was an anecdote in Game Change (0+ / 0-)

        I think every single Republican running in 2008 hated Romney.

        23, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 10:26:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  From (0+ / 0-)

      Santorum's new ad and how Santorum was aggressive towards Newt last night, it looks like Newt will be taking fire on the right again. Wouldn't be surprised if Ron Paul joins in on the fun also.

      "Viewing time at the zoo!" - America on the GOP Presidential primaries

      by ehstronghold on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 07:02:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Sen: Jeff Fitzgerald raised $77,000. (6+ / 0-)

    So as of now I'm considering this a two man race between Neumann and Thompson. Both of whom didn't have the greatest fundraising quarter either. This makes it all the more likely Thompson will go down.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 05:55:07 AM PST

  •  AZ-Sen: Jeff Flake raised $607,000 and has (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    $2.56 million COH. He raised just slightly more than Carmona did this quarter and has to worry about a Republican self funder in the primary.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 05:56:57 AM PST

  •  Any legal eagles who dare handicap our odds (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    of winning a better Florida map in court? The GOP did, surprisingly, throw a few incumbents to the wolves.

    (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

    by TrueBlueDem on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 06:03:09 AM PST

    •  Very hard to predict (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, Setsuna Mudo, TrueBlueDem

      Because how do you determine whether a particular district was drawn to "promote" a political party?  How it was drawn?  The result?  The language is vague.

      The apparent map gives the Dems the opportunity to capture up to 4 Republican seats.  That's not bad considering that they're shut out of the process.

      •  Agreed (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42

        The mushy language was pointed out by many here in FL long before the vote, but Fair Districts Florida seems to believe the vagueness made it more popular and harder to attack. Commission initiatives and the like have been successfully crushed by wingnuts in other states. They did have to clear 60% for passage, so I sympathize a bit.

        (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

        by TrueBlueDem on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 07:31:05 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  18th, 22nd (5+ / 0-)

      C.W. Young, Vern Buchannon, and the 2nd all become more favorable to Democrats. The 2nd especially; it drops some deep red territory, and picks up some more Dixiecrat areas that are a natural base for the Democratic candidate running. What's more Alex Sink won the new district by something like 5-8 points while losing statewide by 1, and all other statewide Democratic candidates either won or overperformed their statewide total here by high single digits, meaning that Sutherland has a very tough reelection campaign on his hands.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

      by ArkDem14 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 06:26:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks (0+ / 0-)

        This is a surprisingly decent map from an entirely GOP-led process. Perhaps too decent for a court to blow up and potentially get Dems near parity in the delegation.

        (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

        by TrueBlueDem on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 07:34:09 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  FL map (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca

          The Jacksonville-Gainesville-Orlando Dem sink that looks like Vietnam may be illegal. I could see them redrawing that district and the 6-7 others that touch it while leacing the rest of the map alone. All the other districts look kosher to me.

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 08:06:06 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  leaving* (0+ / 0-)

            nm

            SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 08:06:39 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Which would rile up a lot of people (0+ / 0-)

              So we know it's a good thing.  But I thought someone said they couldn't do this, as it would be retrogression.  

              •  It's not majority black. (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera, jncca

                So it can't be retrogression - the seat has no VRA protection.  It's a political gerrymander.  

                The same is true, mind you with FL-20, as it's drawn to maximize black voters, but not majority black.  However, it doesn't cross as many county lines, so I think it's kosher with the new law, despite being needlessly ugly.  

                •  So (0+ / 0-)

                  Is retrogression defined explicitly as majority black/Hispanic/Asian or is it one of those vague identifiers.  it's clearly drawn to elect someone black, does that count int eh retrogression argument.

                  Its great if its strictly defined at 50% of VAP, I'm just unaware of how it all works.

                  •  Others here are more well versed than I am... (0+ / 0-)

                    But I'm certain that majority-minority coalition districts are not protected.  

                    I'm not 100% certain there is an absolute 50%+1 VAP threshold for defining seats as protected against retrogression.  Certainly, it's admissible to take into account CVAP when such data is available when drawling Latino districts.  

                    The issue seldom comes up, however, because in most cases where there is a majority-minority district it's 100% okay, as political gerrymanders are fine on the federal level and in most U.S. states.  

              •  You could make a similar plurality district (0+ / 0-)

                Running off towards Tallahassee which would look substantially less ugly.

                Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

                by R30A on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 06:06:19 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •   (0+ / 0-)

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

            by ArkDem14 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 08:25:08 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  to fix my comment, I've always thought (0+ / 0-)

            that Gainesville should be in the same district as Tallahassee.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

            by ArkDem14 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 08:30:11 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Mostly agree... (0+ / 0-)

            But I think some shuffling in the Tampa Bay area is probably needed too.  Saint Petersburg should be in FL-13, not FL-14.  The knock-off effects of this would certainly cause FL-12, and probably FL-15 as well, to need to be redrawn.  

            Does anyone have a copy of the house map for DRA yet?  It would be interesting to work with.  

      •  FL2 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        That district has Tallahassee and is presumably loaded with state workers, who have a $ incentive to vote Dem at the state level even while they may favor the GOP at the national level for other reasons. I think Dems have a good shot there, but I wouldn't use the governor numbers as an indicator of the district's lean in congressional races.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 08:04:12 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Courtesy of someone in another thread (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, Setsuna Mudo, geoneb, askew, jncca

    CA-38: State Sen. Ron Calderon (D) drops out and endorses Linda Sanchez, clearing way for her: http://blogs.sacbee.com/...

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 06:12:29 AM PST

  •  OH-Sen: Lil' Joshy Mandel raised $1.43 million. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, Setsuna Mudo

    I wonder who's more of a lost cause between Lingle, Brown, and Mandel?

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 06:14:59 AM PST

  •  Chris Christie (7+ / 0-)

    apologizes for suggesting that civil rights activists would have wanted a referendum: http://www.towleroad.com/...

    Enjoying your awkward position, governor? Hope you're having fun.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 06:17:27 AM PST

  •  NJ-Sen (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Setsuna Mudo

    State Sen. Joseph Kyrillos (R), who looks super creepy in this picture, officially kicking off his suicide mission against Bob Menendez: http://www.nj.com/...

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 06:25:22 AM PST

  •  NJ-10 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    If Newark Councilman Ron Rice Jr. can raise $100k in the month of February, he will go ahead with a primary against Don Payne: http://www.politickernj.com/...

    If the younger Rice's views are anything like his dad's, then progressives will probably get behind Payne en masse.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 06:27:42 AM PST

    •  well... (0+ / 0-)

      When Cory Booker was elected Mayor against Ron Rice, Sr., Ron Rice Jr ran with....Cory Booker...so there's that.

      What Ron Rice is doing is what Donald Payne did...he ran a couple of times against veteran incumbent Peter Rodino before Rodino finally retired and he was heir apparent.

      Plus, this fight is another of the internal NJ D fights.  I forgot which side of the fights the Payne and Rice families are on, but, well, this probably has a lot to do with local Newark and Essex County politics.

      •  so is this just a family fight? (0+ / 0-)

        I'm sure the main motivator behind the fight is not ideology, but if Rice Jr. is ideologically similar to his father, then it's worth throwing money at Payne IMO (who is a pretty solid liberal).

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 01:04:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  NJ gay marriage whip count (6+ / 0-)

    Democrats have a confirmed Republican yes vote in the Assembly, from Mary Pat Angelini (who represents the same district as Jen Beck, the only R senator who is a confirmed yes). Assemblyman Declan O'Scanlon (R) is still undecided.

    http://www.politickernj.com/...

    As for why both confirmed Republican yes votes have come from the same legislative district, this article claims that the 11th LD probably has the highest GLBT population of any district in the state.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 06:33:11 AM PST

  •  PA-AttyGen (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, drhoosierdem

    Not sure if this has been reported yet, but here goes.

    Kathleen Kane, Lackawanna County Asst DA, has announced she has $2M in the bank for the primary with Patrick Murphy for the Dem nomination.  Kane finished 3rd at the Democratic party meeting in January to Murphy and McCaffrey (dropped out due to fundraising).

    The source of the $2M.  She put in $2,000 herself, her husband put in $500K in donations and loaned the campaign $1.75M.  Employees of her husband's company put in another $50K in donations.

    Regardless of issue views of the candidate, this bothers me.  She announced he CoH advantage at the state Dem meeting and McCaffrey dropped out soon after citing fundraising reasons.  Her overall fundraising was $2.3M so far, so almost all of her money is family money.  To tout her fundraising prowess is disingenuous at best.

    •  How much did Murphy raise? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 07:04:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Enough (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, drhoosierdem

        I think they said like $1.4M raised, $1M CoH at the end of 2011.

        Kane will need to spend more to get name rec, as her own internal poll showed.  I just don't know how this all plays out.  Murphy will do much better in the Philly burbs than Kane so i think he's the better GE candidate.

        But honestly unless Obama really gets behind the nominee it will be hard,  but still winnable.  I really think obama needs to expend some political capital in PA in 2012 not fir himself but for AttyGen, PA-08, etc.

        •  At least Murphy actually raised his though (0+ / 0-)

          Never been a fan of self funders. Not a game changer for me, but it always annoys me a bit all the same. Especially when her husbands employees gave 100k. I just hope Kane doesn't nuke Murphy, as long as it is a positive race then it could actually help him in the general. Though it could naturally be a negative as well.

          •  I don't mind self-funders (0+ / 0-)

            But somethign about her irks me.  Every press release has little digs (i.e. "as someone who actually prosecuted cases").  I know that substance matters, but it just seems to be kind of snarky, like Murphy is a phony lawyer.

            All of the family business money makes me feel different too, she's only got a chance in hell because she married money.  Murphy has done pretty well for himself, serving in the military, running for Congress, performing well in Congress, etc.

            I find both of them acceptable and think if Obama invests either could win.  But I prefer Murphy for some reason even though I doubt they'd differ much.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 01:50:08 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Politico's crappy Senate ranking. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 07:03:28 AM PST

    •  ... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, askew
      The super agreement to sideline super PACs may not pan out, but Republicans believe they scored a coup just by getting Elizabeth Warren to agree to it. Despite a $13 million arsenal, freshman Sen. Scott Brown is likely to be outspent by outside liberal groups, which have unquestionably prioritized this race as their top target. To shut them out would give the Republican a tactical advantage.

      I guess they come from the same planet as Marc Cenedella (where Kirsten Gillibrand and apparently also Elizabeth Warren have "lethargic" fundraising).

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 07:06:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  From @davidcantanese: (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, Setsuna Mudo, askew
      Republicans win the month in 6 of our top 10rated Senate contests:
      Doesn't even come close to matching reality, but oh well, they know best!

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 07:06:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Allen West opportunity. A good challenger could (0+ / 0-)

    stimulate major GOTV in November.  Port St. Lucie is in the new district and has major liberal votes.

    The area has been hard hit economically and lots of people are moving around.  Voter registration/change of address action is needed.

  •  Esther Kia'aina... (5+ / 0-)

    Isn't winning with this kind of cash. She raised just $21,604 last quarter. Disclosure here.

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 07:21:01 AM PST

  •  National Journal Vice Presidential ranking. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tk421, ehstronghold, Taget, Setsuna Mudo

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 07:24:17 AM PST

    •  Pretty interesting (0+ / 0-)

      At least everything there seemed to have thought behind it, and it was a pretty commons sense list, even if the rankings weren't the same as mine 9damn them).

      For our Ohio friends, would Portman help Romney in Ohio?  We hear so much about the horrors of Kasich and the wonders of Brown that I'm pretty unaware of how Portman is perceived.

      •  He's the Richard Burr of Ohio, an unknown. (0+ / 0-)

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 07:37:17 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Actually, he's more like Cheney w/r/t experience (0+ / 0-)

          the media would nod with approval to a Portman nomination in a similar fashion.

          Burr is an unknown whose just a Senator.

          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

          by tietack on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 07:48:14 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  However, experience is a double edged sword (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoosierD42

            Remember that Portman's experience, pre-Senate, consists of serving in Congress from 1993-2005 (mostly the Gingrich and Hastert/DeLay eras), and then in the George W. Bush administration.  Solid enough in terms of qualification, but not always in ways that are likely to be assets with the general public.  

            (Plus he'd ruin the "George W. Who?" 2001-08 amensia approach that many in the GOP are banking on.)

            36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 09:06:51 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  No, Portman would NOT help (0+ / 0-)

        He's so low-key people just don't really know him. He's been a good, quiet little Republican tool so far. That might make him a risk-free VP candidate, but there's little that could help Romney carry Ohio if things play out the way they're looking to. And if the far far far far right succeeds in getting both Personhood and Right to Work for Less on the ballot (both measures have been approved and are gathering signatures), the GOP is dead meat in Ohio. If Portman were back on the ballot himself (sadly he isn't), he couldn't win.

        Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

        by anastasia p on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 08:27:12 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'd put Martinez much higher (0+ / 0-)

      My ranking would be:

      Rubio
      Martinez
      McDonnell
      Christie

      I don't see Romney picking a "mainstream" clone like Portman, or another governor or ex-governor, like Daniels and Pawlenty.

      •  I'd have (0+ / 0-)

        Rubio
        McDonnell
        Martinez
        Jundal

        and then no one really.  once you get past the first 2 you are clearly trying to grab a demographic you can't get so it's irrelevant.  At least Rubio/McDonnell are from swing states and could help in those states, I'm not sure what Jindal does but i think he's higher up on list than some others (Christie) but gets less emntion because he'd be useless.

        I don't know why anyone thinks Christie would be VP (not just you, but the punditry).  But I'd enjoy it 1 billion percent.

        •  hmm (0+ / 0-)

          I'm not a fan of first-term governors as I don't think they've been around enough to get much of a read on them. Palin looked good at the time based on her year and a half in the governor's office.

          I think the same goes for first term senators. Rubio's been in office for barely a year and before that he was just a state legislator, and has no other national-level experience. The base may like him, but I don't know whether undecided voters will see him as a plausible president.

          Before I looked at NJ's list I made a top 4 of Thune, Pawlenty, Huckabee, and Jindal. I think Romney would be best off with an experienced pol who isn't going to make rookie mistakes, who has social conservative cred, and who passes the smell test as president. Jindal is young but I think he passes the sniff test as a popular multi-term governor with a rep as a reformer in a state known for corruption.

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 08:29:39 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Hadn't thought of Huckabee (0+ / 0-)

            I think he passes the test too and is probably more battle-tested nationally.  But I'd imagine he declines it, because he's smart and he's making enough money as is and wouldn't get a huge income bump after he lost.  I assume that's the same reasoning he used in not running in 2012 himself.

            Thune, Jindal and Pawlenty just seem...boring.  i don't know how to put it.  Not that Biden makes me jolly but he at least makes me laugh or shake my head from time to time.  

    •  Fortuno (0+ / 0-)

      Fortuno presents an interesting opportunity for Republicans. If they had him as their VP, it may boost support (at least as seen through turnout) in Puerto Rico for statehood. I think the VP will be Martinez.

      22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

      by wwmiv on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 08:12:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Fortuno would offer something else. (0+ / 0-)

        Which is what Palin initially brought to McCain (but ended up backfiring as more about her became known) a narrative.

        He brings an interesting, compelling, and outside the box story to the table.  Rubio and Jindal also bring the same thing.  Though a pick from Puerto Rico really opens up a new dimension.  Though a risky one.  Who knows what mindfields lurk in Puerto Rican politics that lie just under the surface and can blow up at him?  But if you are going to try to make a pitch for Hispanics picking a Puerto Rican (or Mexican) makes more sense over picking a Cuban.

        And actually if you are going to go down the road of trying to appeal to a demographic Jindal might be the better choice.  Despite their democratic leanings there is a large social conservative current in the Indian community.  And they are one of the more socially cohensive communities with a lot of really strong ethno-religious organizations.  Courting the Indian community would be a smart play for Republicans.

      •  Don't think it will be Martinez (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        Not only has she actively disdained interest, at least for 2012, but after Palin I don't think they'll go for a smallish state governor who was a local DA just two years ago.  

        Not that Martinez would be a Palin redux; in fact she probably wouldn't be, but it may just be too risky to choose someone so new at their current state level job with little evident background in national issues and try to convince voters that they're instantly ready to be President.

        36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 09:13:06 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It also becomes (0+ / 0-)

          Almost like the GOP doesn't take women seriously.  i mean it keeps picking pretty novice governors which seems to be just stabbing at the female vote.  If they picked say Sen Hutchinson or Snowe at least they are heavily experienced and battle tested; Palin and Martinez aren't close to them.

  •  There is no way (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TrueBlueDem, HoosierD42

    This FL map will stand.

    Since Fair Districts passed in 2010, it is now a part of the FL constitution. There will surely be a lawsuit filed by Democrats and others that the FL-3 district as drawn is unconstitutional due to the Fair Districts law.

    In addition, the horrendous Tampa Bay gerrymander was clearly drawn to favor Republicans, and this is also a violation of Fair Districts (the district uses water contiguity to suck in Bradenton and St. Petersburg to aid Vern Buchanan and Bill Young.)

    These two districts, and possibly Alcee Hastings gerrymander to create a black majority seat in South Florida may require a re-draw of the lines. FL does not require the 3 AA VRA seats that exist now (only 1 I believe.) That would be Frederica Wilson. If Corrine Brown's 3rd is dismantled, Tampa Bay is unpacked, and Alcee Hastings district was unpacked, Democrats would have a legit shot at taking Bill Youngs FL-10, create a more competitive North Florida seat with a united Alachua county (with Gainesville), further endanger Vern Buchanan's 13th, and create another opportunity in South Florida.

    Democrats could easily pick up 4-6 in Florida if the Florida Supreme Court were to rule those 3 districts unconstitutional.

  •  Record Military suicides and why you should care (0+ / 0-)

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