(Calculated Risk)
One day ahead of the government's monthly jobs report, the Department of Labor
said this morning that initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 367,000 for the week ending Jan. 28,, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure. The four-week moving average, which analysts prefer because it flattens volatility, fell to 375,750. Claims have now been under 400,000 for eight of the past 10 weeks.
For the week ending Jan. 14, the number of Americans claiming benefits in all unemployment insurance programs was 7,670,452, an increase of 345 from the previous week. That number includes the federally extended program that provides up to 99 weeks of benefits for eligible participants in states with a higher-than-average unemployment rate. Extended benefits are available at some level in 35 states and the District of Columbia.
Meanwhile, the global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported this morning that job cuts jumped 28 percent in January. Employers said they planned to cut 53,486 positions, compared with 41,785 job cuts announced in December. The planned cuts were 39 percent higher than in January 2010. Government job cuts fell sharply.
Retailers and financial firms saw the greatest cuts, losing 12,426 and 7,611 jobs, respectively. Challenger said the retail job losses were not related to seasonal hiring, and instead were the result of restructurings, store closings, and other cost-cutting measures. [...]
“Of course, it is far too early to say whether we will continue to see low job-cut figures in government. It is highly unlikely, considering that many cities and states continue to struggle with budget deficits,” Challenger said in a statement. “And, then there is the federal level of government, which remains under intense pressure to cut costs. As a result, we expect government layoffs to be heavy again this year.”
As part of negotiations of extending the payroll tax cut for the rest for 2012, Republicans seek to "reform" unemployment benefits by 40 weeks and require recipients to have a high school degree or be enrolled in a GED program.
Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute says this would be a very bad time for such a cut in benefits. The ranks of the unemployed out of work for more than six months is now 42.5 percent. That's 25 points higher than was the case before the recession began.