Don't know nothin' about economics but I have my theories.
Anyone who has poked around on the Bureau of Labor Statistics
website to dig behind the numbers that get reported by the megamedia knows that the job situation is a good deal more complicated than the headlines would indicate. The official unemployment rate, the big number reported each month—in BLS jargon, U3—is the one that moves markets and, perhaps, changes votes. It presents far from the big picture, in terms of both positive and negative things that affect the economy, in terms of both acute and chronic issues. Caveats aside, that number, as reported last Friday in the monthly BLS jobs report, is now 8.3 percent. And that is viewed, quite correctly, as good news for an administration that has been plagued by a lot of bad news on the job front since it took over in January 2009 with the economy in a state of free fall.
A huge discussion can be had regarding the accuracy of the formulas and methodologies used to derive that number. Discussions about whether there are better, more accurate measures that should be used instead of that number. Whether the "seasonal adjustment" needs adjusting. Etc. Ad infinitum. Amateurs and experts have, indeed, been wrestling over those matters for a very long time. Some would like to see changes made, big or little, in how the number is derived and how it is reported.
But the Fox and Friends crew, who, on a regular basis, prove they do not have even a modicum of understanding of the most fundamental economic principles, have a theory about the number. Here they were this morning, Eric Bolling, Steve Doocy and Gretchen Carlson:
BOLLING: So are they playing around with the numbers? Look, it’s the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it’s supposed to be non-partisan, but that’s the Department of Labor. Hilda Solis heads the Department of Labor, Hilda Solis works directly to Obama. I’m — you know.
DOOCY: Are you saying they’re cooking the books?
BOLLING: I’m saying there’s room for error. There’s room — when you’re talking about 4 million people, how do you know?
DOOCY: How do you know?
CARLSON: I don’t think anyone should surprised that in an election year — [...] So it’s interpretation, I think is the way in which we’d describe it.
There you have it. The employment rate, which has been reported in the same way by the BLS since 1994, is now an election-year conspiracy. Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis just calls up the bureau on Thursday and gives the staff their marching orders. "Let's make the unemployment rate for last month, oh, say, 8.4 percent. No, make that 8.3 percent."
Of course, it was just a throwaway line for an audience that already believes, no matter what proofs are provided, that the entire Obama administration is a conspiracy.
In fact, for all its flaws, what the 8.3 percent number reflects is a trend in the job market that has been steadily but ever-so-slightly improving, with ups and downs for two years. Not fast enough, not as good as anybody with good sense would like, but improving.
What Fox & Friends don't like about this is that government stimulus which kept us from sinking far, far deeper than we did has worked. Obama's policies kept it from going where it was going when he first sat down in the Oval Office. And now, in an election year, with an unemployment rate that has been calculated the same way for 18 years, the trend cuts against the lying narrative of Obama "made it worse."
To cover up this inconvenient fact, the Foxagandists, who, as we know from their boss's memos, really do get marching orders from the top, are doing some cooking of their own, their fevered brows being the primary ingredient.