Today Republicans in Minnesota and Colorado will be wrapping up their presidential caucuses, and Missouri Republicans will vote in a non-binding primary. In Minnesota the Republicans will be fighting over 40 delegates, and in Colorado 36 delegates. In Missouri they'll be fighting for the hand of the lovely and beautiful Roy Blunt, since their caucus later in the primary season will actually award the delegates.
As usual Mitt Romney is leading in a state adjacent to the Mormon citadel, Colorado, but his lead is not terribly impressive:
In Colorado Mitt Romney looks primed for another big Western win to match his one in Nevada. He leads with 40% there to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Gingrich, and 12% for Ron Paul.
Surprisingly Newt Gingrich isn't Mitt's main contender today, but Rick Santorum appears to be edging him out in Minnesota and Missouri.
Minnesota looks like a toss up with any of the four candidates having some shot at winning. Santorum holds a small edge there with 29% to 27% for Romney, 22% for Gingrich, and 19% for Paul.
...
Tuesday has the potential to be a big day for Rick Santorum. In addition to these two polls, a Missouri survey we conducted last weekend found him with 45% to 34% for Romney and 13% for Paul.
[All PPP polls, and therefore likely reliable]
As I'm sure Mitt Romney would remind us, though, the only important poll is on election day!
I'll be updating this diary as we get results. Talk amongst yourselves.
I've noticed that NPR is hosting the AP's results for all three states here, with results broken down by county for Colorado here, Minnesota here, and Missouri here.
According to NPR:
— Polls in Missouri close at 8 p.m. ET. Caucuses convene in Minnesota at that time too.
— Colorado's caucuses convene at 9 p.m. ET.
— We expect for results to start trickling in from Minnesota as early as 8:15 p.m.
— Results from Colorado may not be complete until about midnight in the East Coast.
5:17 PM PT: MSNBC says Missouri and Minnesota "Poll close delayed."
5:21 PM PT: Missouri: 1 of 3134 precincts reporting, and it's 9-8 for Rick Santorum. Both Gary Johnson and John Huntsman are within single digits of the lead, though.
5:25 PM PT: Missouri: 13 of 3134 Precincts reporting, Romney 37%, Santorum 36%, Uncommitted 9%, Paul 9%, Perry 4%
5:29 PM PT: MO: 16 of 3134 precincts reporting: Santorum 48%, Romney 29%, Paul 10%, Uncommitted 7%
Also, Obama is at 72%
5:31 PM PT: MN: 1 precincts, in and Santorum leads Paul 7-6, with Romney and Gingrich each getting 1 vote.
5:35 PM PT: MN: 33 Caucuses of 4137 reporting, Santorum 48%, Paul 24%, Romney 16%, Gingrich 11%
5:38 PM PT: MO: 32 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 52%, Romney 26%, Paul 11%, Uncommitted 6%
5:39 PM PT: MN: 37 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 49%, Paul 24%, Romney 16%, Gingrich 11%
5:41 PM PT: MO: 57 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 47%, Romney 28%, Paul 14%, Uncommitted 6%
5:42 PM PT: MN: 39 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 46%, Paul 26%, Romney 17%, Gingrich 10%
5:44 PM PT: MO: 61 of 3134 reporting: Santorum 47%, Romney 29%, Paul 14%, Uncommitted 6%
Also, Obama at 81% now.
5:45 PM PT: MN: 43 of 4137 reporting: Santorum 44%, Paul 25%, Romney 17%, Gingrich 14%
5:46 PM PT: MO: 74 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 46%, Romney 30%, Paul 14%, Uncommitted 6%
5:48 PM PT: I've just noticed that PPP
s final numbers for Colorado were Romney 37, Santorum 27, Gingrich 21. Definitely not too impressive.
5:49 PM PT: MN: 48 of 4137 reporting: Santorum 49%, Paul 22%, Romney 15%, Gingrich 14%
5:52 PM PT: MO: 85 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 46%, Romney 30%, Paul 13%, Uncommitted 7%
5:54 PM PT: MO: 120 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 48%, Romney 29%, Paul 12%, Uncommitted 6%
5:56 PM PT: MO: 131 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 49.8%, Romney 28%, Paul 12%, Uncommitted 6%
5:59 PM PT: MO: 177 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 49%, Romney 29%, Paul 12%, Uncommitted 6%
6:00 PM PT: MN: 90 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 49%, Paul 22%, Romney 15%, Gingrich 14%
6:01 PM PT: MO: 217 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 51%, Romney 28%, Paul 12%, Uncommitted 6%
6:04 PM PT: MO: 251 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 52%, Romney 26%, Paul 12%, Uncommitted 5%
6:04 PM PT: MN: 101 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 48%, Paul 23%, Romney 16%, Gingrich 13%
6:06 PM PT: MO: 253 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 48%, Romney 29%, Paul 12%, Uncommitted 6%
6:07 PM PT: MN: 118 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 47%, Paul 23%, Romney 17%, Gingrich 13%
6:09 PM PT: MO: 328 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 50%, Romney 28%, Paul 12%, Uncommitted 6%
6:11 PM PT: MN: 125 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 47%, Paul 23%, Romney 17%, Gingrich 13%
6:12 PM PT: MO: 371 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 51%, Romney 27%, Paul 12%, Uncommitted 6%
6:17 PM PT: MO: 505 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 51%, Romney 27%, Paul 12%, Uncommitted 6% ( think I'll stop reporting Uncommitted unless its vote share begins to rise)
6:18 PM PT: MN: 150 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 45%, Paul 23%, Romney 19%, Gingrich 13%
6:19 PM PT: MO: 534 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 52.5%, Romney 26%, Paul 12%
6:21 PM PT: MO: 593 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 53%, Romney 26%, Paul 12%
6:22 PM PT: MN: 167 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 45%, Paul 24%, Romney 18%, Gingrich 12%
6:24 PM PT: MO: 691 of 3134 reporting: Santorum 53%, Romney 26%, Paul 12%
6:25 PM PT: MN: 180 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 44%, Paul 24%, Romney 19%, Gingrich 12%
6:28 PM PT: MO: 729 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 53%, Romney 26%, Paul 12%
Obama 84.7%
6:29 PM PT: MN: 211 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 43%, Paul 25%, Romney 18%, Gingrich 13%
6:30 PM PT: MO: 773 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 53%, Romney 26%, Paul 12%
6:31 PM PT: MN: 227 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 43%, Paul 26%, Romney 18%, Gingrich 13%
6:32 PM PT: MO: 843 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 54%, Romney 25.5%, Paul 12%
6:33 PM PT: Edit: last update should say 842 of 3134
6:34 PM PT: MN: 253 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 42%, Paul 27%, Romney 18%, Gingrich 13% Everyone but Paul is dropping!
6:37 PM PT: Colorado! 1 of 76 reporting, Santorum 64, Gingrich 20, Romney 12, Paul 6. Those are votes, not percentages.
6:38 PM PT: MO: 986 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 54%, Romney 25%, Paul 12%
6:39 PM PT: MN: 332 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 43%, Paul 27%, Romney 18%, Gingrich 12%
6:41 PM PT: CO: 4/76 reporting, Santorum 49.8%, Gingrich 24%, Romney 17%, Paul 9%
6:42 PM PT: MO: 1050 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 54.5%, Romney 25%, Paul 12%
6:43 PM PT: MN: 429 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 44.55%, Paul 26%, Romney 17%, Gingrich 12%
6:45 PM PT: CO: 5 of 76 reporting, Santorum 49%, Gingrich 21%, Romney 21% Paul 9%
6:46 PM PT: MO: 1131 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 55%, Romney 25%, Paul 12%
6:46 PM PT: MN: 486 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 44%, Paul 26%, Romney 17%, Gingrich 12%
6:47 PM PT: Santorum has won 4/5 of the first counties in Colorado
6:48 PM PT: CO: Santorum 50%, Gingrich 21%, Romney 19%, Paul 10%
Make that 6/7
6:50 PM PT: MO: 1238 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 55%, Romney 25%, Paul 12%
Is it safe to call it for Santorum yet?
6:51 PM PT: MN: 544 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 43.53%, Paul 27%, Romney 17%, Gingrich 12%
6:53 PM PT: MO: 1313 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 54.9%, Romney 24.8%, Paul 11.8%
Santorum ahead by more than 30 points so far.
6:57 PM PT: MO: 1366 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 54.9%, Romney 24.7%, Paul 11.8%
Obama at 83.5%
6:58 PM PT: MN: 610 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 43%, Paul 27.49%, Romney 17%, Gingrich 12%
7:01 PM PT: MO: 1620 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 54.9%, Romney 24.8%, Paul 11.9%
7:02 PM PT: MN: 699 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 43%, Paul 27%, Romney 17%, Gingrich 12%
7:04 PM PT: Colorado: No updates lately, but with 7.9% in, Santorum leads with 49.6%, or... 202 votes.
7:05 PM PT: MO: 1765 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 54.5%, Romney 25%, Paul 12%
7:06 PM PT: MN: 792 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 43%, Paul 27% Romney 17%, Gingrich 12%
7:08 PM PT: MO: 1822 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 54.7%, Romney 24.9%, Paul 12.2%
7:09 PM PT: MN: 859 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 43%, Paul 27%, Romney 18%, Gingrich 12%
7:14 PM PT: MO: 1851 of 3134 reporting, Republican percentages haven't budged, but Obama is at 86.5% in the Democratic primary.
7:15 PM PT: MN: 1027 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 44%, Paul 27%, Romney 17%, Gingrich 11.54%
7:17 PM PT: MN: 1082 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 44.53%, Paul 26.57%, Romney 17.15%, Gingrich 11.43%
7:18 PM PT: MO: 1967 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 54.9%, Romney 24.9%, Paul 12.1%
7:20 PM PT: MN: 1137 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 44%, Paul 26.5%, Romney 17%, Gingrich 11%
7:23 PM PT: MO: 2173 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 55%, Romney 25%, Paul 12%
7:24 PM PT: MN: 1220 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 45.2%, Paul 26.5%, Romney 16.7%, Gingrich 11.3%
7:26 PM PT: MO: 2195 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 55.2%, Romney 25.1%, Paul 11.9%
7:27 PM PT: MN: 1289 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 45.4%, Paul 26.6%, Romney 16.6%, Gingrich 11.1%
7:29 PM PT: MN: 1323 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 45.6%, Paul 26.6%, Romney 16.4%, Gingrich 11.1%
7:33 PM PT: MN: 1403 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 46%, Paul 26%, Romney 16%, Gingrich 11%
7:34 PM PT: So, my Colorado results aren't updating, I'll have to check another source. So far, though, Santorum is leading in MO by about 30, and MN by almost 20 points.
7:36 PM PT: I don't know who is calling it, but HuffPo has Minnesota called for Santorum with 32.9% in.
7:44 PM PT: MO: 2088 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 55%, Romney 25%, Paul 12%
7:45 PM PT: MN: 1737 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 45.7%, Paul 26.8%, Romney 16.4%, Gingrich 10.8%
7:51 PM PT: With 4 counties left to report in Missouri, Romney came in 3rd in two of them in 2008. Santorum currently has 55.6% statewide, to 2nd place finisher Romney's 25.0%
7:54 PM PT: MN: 2065 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 45%, Paul 27%, Romney 17%, Gingrich 11%
8:00 PM PT: CO: 8 of 76 reporting, Romney 37%, Santorum 37%, Gingrich 17%, Paul 9%
8:02 PM PT: MO: 2702 of 3134 reporting, Santorum 55.7%, Romney 24.9%, Paul 12%, Uncommitted 4%
and for now I'm done with Missouri, aside from saying that Obama is at 87.4%, with Uncommitted in 2nd place at 6.8%.
8:04 PM PT: MN: 2356 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 45%, Paul 27%, Romney 17%, Gingrich 11%
8:06 PM PT: CO: no updates yet, but while Mitt Romney has a 2 vote lead statewide, Rick Santorum is in 1st or 2nd in every county that is reporting so far.
8:12 PM PT: MN: 2425 of 4137, Santorum 45%, Paul 27%, Romney 17%, Gingrich 11%
8:18 PM PT: MN: 2526 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 44.9%, Paul 27.1%, Romney 17.1%, Gingrich 10.6%
8:20 PM PT: CO: 8 of 76 reporting, Santorum 42%, Romney 31%, Gingrich 15%, Paul 12%
8:25 PM PT: MN: 2719 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 44.8%, Paul 27.2%, Romney 17.1%, Gingrich 10.6%
8:28 PM PT: MN: 2769 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 44.67%, Paul 27.41%, Romney 17.12%, Gingrich 10.5%
8:30 PM PT: CO: 20/76 reporting, Santorum 41%, Romney 31%, Gingrich 15%, Paul 12%
Santorum leads by nearly 500 votes.
8:32 PM PT: MO: 3101 of 3134, Santorum 55.2%, Romney 25.3%, Paul 12.2%, Uncommitted 3.9%
8:35 PM PT: MN: 2897 of 4137, Santorum 44.7, Paul 27.4, Romney 17.1, Gingrich 10.6
8:37 PM PT: Paul is making very small gains in Minnesota at Santorum's expense.
8:39 PM PT: MN: 2960 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 44.6%, Paul 27.5%, Romney 17%, Gingrich 10.6%
8:42 PM PT: Minnesota, where Romney's vote share is once again flirting with dropping below 17%
Santorum 44.65%, Paul 27.43%, Romney 17.01%, Gingrich 10.6%
3014 of 4137 reporting
8:44 PM PT: CO: 20 of 76 reporting, Santorum 42%, Romney 30%, Gingrich 15%, Paul 12%
8:48 PM PT: MN: 3075 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 44.8%, Paul 27.2%, Romney 17.1%, Gingrich 10.6%
8:55 PM PT: Bragging Rights: So far Mitt Romney is leading in 3 counties tonight, all in Colorado. Ron Paul is leading in 4 counties, all in Minnesota. I count 187 counties where Rick Santorum has won or leads tonight.
8:57 PM PT: CO: 21 of 76 reporting, Santorum 43%, Romney 29%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 12%
9:00 PM PT: CO: 27 of 76 reporting, Santorum 41, Romney 30, Gingrich 16, Paul 13
9:02 PM PT: MN: 3122 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 44.7%, Paul 27.3%, Romney 17.1%, Gingrich 10.6%
9:06 PM PT: CO: Same percentages, but Santorum now has a 900+ vote lead, with 47% reporting.
9:11 PM PT: MN: 3195 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 44.9%, Paul 27.3%, Romney 16.9%, Gingrich 10.6%
9:14 PM PT: MN: 3301 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 44.8%, Paul 27.3%, Romney 17%, Gingrich 10.6%
9:17 PM PT: Another Colorado ganja break.
MN: 3358 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 44.8%, Paul 27.2%, Romney 17.2%, Gingrich 10.5%
9:20 PM PT: MN: 3364 of 4137 reporting, Santorum 44.7%, Paul 27.2%, Romney 17.1%, Gingrich 10.6%
9:22 PM PT: We're at about 3400 of 4100 precincts in Minnesota, and the numbers are just budging back and forth. I think I'll do just one more update before the final tally.
9:23 PM PT: CO: 49% reporting, Santorum 41%, Romney 30%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 13%
9:27 PM PT: CO: 51% reporting, Romney 37%, Santorum 35%, Gingrich 14%, Paul 13%
9:30 PM PT: Romney got 40% of the vote in Denver, and 37% in Boulder. The only counties he's actually achieved a majority in were Arapahoe and Alamosa, both 53%.
9:32 PM PT: CNN says Denver Co is reporting 100%, but has about the same number of votes as Boulder Co which says 0%. I'm guessing Boulder is 100% in if Denver is.
9:35 PM PT: Arapahoe is now 100% in, building on Romney's lead statewide, but his lead in Arapahoe itself fell to only 45%.
Romney 39%, Santorum 35%, Gingrich 13%, Paul 13%
9:43 PM PT: CO: 55% reporting Romney 38%, Santorum 36%, Gingrich 13%, Paul 12%
9:47 PM PT: CO: I've been using CNN, while the Colorado Republicans have Santorum ahead 37-36, a lead of about 160 votes. They don't have Arapahoe County numbers baked in, though, it looks like.
9:48 PM PT: CO: back to CNN, 62% reporting, 400 vote lead for Mitt
Mitt 37%, Rick 36%, Newt 14%, Paul 13%
9:48 PM PT: CO: Santorum seems to be winning SW Colorado, Mitt NW
9:50 PM PT: Colorado Republicans now give Mitt a 45 vote lead.
9:51 PM PT: CNN gives Santorum a 75 vote lead
64% reporting
Santorum 37, Romney 37, Gingrich 13, Paul 12
9:54 PM PT: CNN: Romney by 133 votes
Romney 37, Santorum 37, Gingrich 13, Paul 12... 70% reporting
9:55 PM PT: One last look at Minnesota, where Santorum leads 44.9%, Paul 27%, Romney has 17%, and Gingrich brings up the rear with 10.7%
3556 of 4137 reporting.
9:57 PM PT: Colorado: Santorum's margin in Mesa County alone nearly cancels out Romney's in Boulder Co and Jefferson Co combined.
10:00 PM PT: Colorado: CNN has Romney up by 129 votes with 75% in, but with Colorado Springs and a lot of rural counties still outstanding.
10:02 PM PT: Colorado: Santorum up big, called for Santorum!
10:03 PM PT: Colorado: Santorum 38%, Romney 37% with 78% reporting, a lead of over 400 votes.
10:04 PM PT: In other bad news for Mitt, he's dropped below 17% in Minnesota.
10:08 PM PT: CO: 83% reporting, Santorum 38%, Romney 37%, Gingrich 13%, Paul 12%
Romney wins Conejos County with 79% of the vote, still loses state.
10:10 PM PT: Santorum's margins right now: Missouri: 30 points, Minnesota: 28 points, Colorado: 1 point
10:11 PM PT: oops, to be clear, his margins over Romney. His margin in Minnesota over Paul is only about 18 points.
10:14 PM PT: CO: 84% reporting, Santorum 38%, Romney 36%, Gingrich 13%, Paul 12%
10:15 PM PT: CO: 89% reporting, same numbers, but Moffat comes in for Romney. Only 7 counties left, and the biggest ones should go for Santorum.
10:17 PM PT: Colorado: Rio Blanco and Garfield come in for Romney, but he's still down 38-36 with 92% in, still nothing from Weld or El Paso Counties.
10:20 PM PT: Colorado: Saguache comes in strong for Santorum, 53% countywide there. Margin still 38-36 statewide. Teller, El Paso, Weld outsanding.
10:21 PM PT: 99% reporting in CO, Santourm wins Weld with 48%, Teller with 61%, statewide at 39-36 over Romney.
10:23 PM PT: And Colorado Springs gives Santourm a 40-35, 3,500 vote win over Mitt Romney in Colorado. Rick Santorum wins Missouri 55-25, Minnesota 45-27, and Colorado 40-35.