With the new map for the 24 member New Hampshire state senate effectively finalised Republicans appear to have given themselves a decent chance of holding the chamber in a state that is trending Democratic.
Map |
> R+6 |
> R+3 |
> R+1 |
Even |
> D+1 |
> D+3 |
> D+6 |
2010 Map |
6 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
New Map |
3 |
2 |
6 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
Prior to the last election Democrats had a 14-10 edge in the senate, however the Republican tsunami hit hard in New Hampshire and nine seats changed parties leading to the current 19-5 Republican senate.
It is possible that Republicans haven't done enough to keep a grip on the senate over the next decade. However 16 Republican state senators look set to run for reelection and there are limits to what can be done when you need to keep 2/3 of the entire chamber happy.
The Nashua (D+6) district will almost certainly revert to Democratic control but Republicans will be hoping to retain their other 18 seats provided 2012 is at least a neutral year.
Republicans could have attempted a more ambitious gerrymander and drawn something like this;
Map |
> R+6 |
> R+3 |
> R+1 |
Even |
> D+1 |
> D+3 |
> D+6 |
2010 Map |
6 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
Republican Map |
3 |
6 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
Only one set of Republican incumbents are forced together though most others would see large changes in their constituents making this politically unpalatable.
There do exist potential maps that would bring still more seats into play for Republicans but I'd worry that by the end of the decade a general blue shift could lead these maps to look shortsighted.
Had Democrats retained their majorities in both the state house and senate they could have had the opportunity to draw their own gerrymander. It may have looked something like this;
Map |
> R+6 |
> R+3 |
> R+1 |
Even |
> D+1 |
> D+3 |
> D+6 |
2010 Map |
6 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
Democratic Map |
5 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
Democrats would be confident of holding the senate in all but the absolute worst of years. All incumbents retain either at least a D+6 district, or in the case of Lou D'Allesandro shored up from an EVEN district to a D+2.
In three districts two Republicans are forced to run against each other (or step down). Most interestingly, the blue district in the north of the state (1st) continually elects the "insufficiently conservative" John Gallus despite the districts democratic lean. Under this map two-time congressional rep from the New Hampshire 1st (also two-time loser) Jeb Bradley, now the current state senate majority leader, has his hometown (Wolfeboro) moved into Gallus's district. Worst case scenario one of them is gone, best case scenario Bradley wins a primary and goes on to lose the general to a Democrat.
Map |
> R+6 |
> R+3 |
> R+1 |
Even |
> D+1 |
> D+3 |
> D+6 |
2010 Map |
6 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
New Map |
3 |
2 |
6 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
Democratic Map |
5 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
Republican Map |
3 |
6 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
6 |