Redistricting created CA 26 Congressional district, and offered Democrats a juicy opportunity to pickup a Republican seat held by Elton Gallegly. Everything looked rosy when County Supervisor Steve Bennett announced his candidacy last November. Democratic Moorpark City Council Member David Pollock, Rudi in Hollywood's 1970's Bad News Bears, was already running, but Bennett's name recognition seemed to outstrip Pollock's clear desire and energy to seek the seat. This weekend, Bennett went to the California Democratic convention and announced his is withdrawing from the race. At the last minute, Pollock was only 3 votes shy of getting the convention endorsement in advance of the June primary. Can Pollock pull out a win this late in the game. We may have to re-view Bad News Bears to find out.
When Pollock announced his Congressional candidacy, he showed that he had a vast political rolodex and the energy to use it, by contacting everyone he knew from the local government communities he has served for two decades. He hit all the right policy notes in his public statements which were picked up in local press, on DK, and even made a splash on Politico.com. At the same time, press reports that were in Bennett's wheelhouse of policy issues were printed without a quote from Bennett. Even though Bennett raised 10 times as much money as Pollock, Bennett didn't seem to be gearing up for a fight.
Then Bennett's fellow Supervisor, Republican Linda Parks, announced her candidacy, joining hard right lifelong officeholder Tony Strickland on the ballot. Three other Dems are also running, but Pollock seems to have the kind of apparatus that could win in the primary. So what's wrong with this picture, for Dems?
California has a new "top two" primary system, to be in place for the June primary. The general election ballot will not automatically include one Republican and one Democratic candidate this year. It will contain the top two June vote-getters. CA 26 is slightly majority Dem after redistricting. Why doesn't this guarantee that a Dem will be in the top two? Because of name recognition (Strickland and Parks probably beat Pollock on this score).
Name recognition is pretty hard to come by in Ventura County. There is a general circulation newspaper with a website frequented by seriously hardcore right wing nuts (emphasis on the word nuts). There are a few local AM radio stations, but they seem to attract the Star's website participants--the nuts, and some of those stations broadcast paid content. NPR's outlet KCLU has a local reporter who's very competent and diligent, but it's not known for expanding pols' name recognition. VC is a very difficult media market to penetrate. Direct mail is probably the most sure-fire way to get your name and face in front of voters.
Direct mail costs money. Candidates will have to mail enough postcards to reach 265,000 voters. Pollock will have a lot of work to overcome the early chaos caused by Bennett's change of heart, and win over Bennett's fundraisers. Bad News Bears grossed $32 million in box office. If life imitates art, I'm willing to bet on Pollock pulling out a win this time, and it will be Good News time in Ventura County.