Yep, another diary about the potential negative effects of messing with open caucus's, but with an expanded analysis regarding a nightmare scenario that its seems we are missing. It is with deep regret that I bring liberals the news that while we find the extended battle on the gop side funny, there is one likely outcome could really present us with some problems. Three more months of primaries only to result in a Romney/Santorum ticket. Obviously, the ticket itself is not the nightmare, but the specific context that ticket emerges.
First, from the perspective of the GOP, Santorum completes Romney and from the perspective of independents-having Romney on top might lower concern about some of Santorums radical positions. Basically, I think the certain parts of the country might swallow that pill.
Remember the presidential race is not won or lost based upon public opinion and corresponding voting patterns in mass-it is won or lost around the edges-swing states as well as specific counties within. Just remember how close the "official" count was for Gore in Florida and Kerry in Ohio. A small change in the "official" count in a couple different counties in either one of those states and we have a different prez. So, forming and shaping the R/S ticket so that just enough people vote the right way in the right places is not all that inconceivable-(plus voter suppression efforts-etc). Therefore, arguments referencing Macro polling or even state by state analysis regarding negatives or turnout is less salient, although typically indicative of mood among voters, the question is-what about the "counties" that matter in a close election? And of course, we don't which counties will matter this time-or if it will be close. But, a R/S ticket that emerges within a certain context could make it too close and very easy to steal.
Now, at this point you might think I have gotten to the heart of my argument and that it is weak sauce. Keep reading-I haven't. The above is just a regular dynamic or obstacle to true democracy that we deal with every election-but a salient reminder of the practical considerations of winner prez elections. First, I will provide a counter argument to some of the dominate theme's I have heard this cycle. Then I will spell out the NightMare scenario.
We all think that an extended battle is great for dems because it is a clown show. Well, thats just us watching them rally the clown base. Therefore, what we interpret as destructive, and would like be if happened in a Dem primary battle, is likely not for Repubs. Remember, we interpret reality and information differently from each other-thats why we are in the situation we are in (ie-dragging idiots through history like a screaming child in a toy store). "Now, now, put that down-you're going to break other peoples civil rights-no,no, thats NOT yours". Sometimes I feeling like "winning the civil war" was just a cruel joke. Like-we fought for this? To keep these assholes part of the country and subsidize their states? But I digress.
The point is they are unpredictable because we can not understand their "logic" and are always astounded by their ability to ignore very large aspects of reality. This election will be no different. I does not matter, in the end, where any of them were on any issue in the past. Not five minutes ago, not five months ago, not five years ago. The republican base has an amazing ability to re-understand things. Therefore, any analysis about Ohhh-Rick said this, or Romney said that is irrelevant.
Citizens United changed everything-it was the 911 of democracy. The idea that Romney is a powerful candidate because of his ability to self-finance or raise money is pre CU thinking. The idea that a candidate can't win because of a small donor base is the same-Santorum has floated by on merger resources. The money will flow, candidates no longer need to raise it, just court a small amount of wealth donors-something R's have been doing for decades.
If we see a battle between Romney and Santorum extended through many different states, especially if it is really nasty and close, each camp will be building a ground game in the process. Each respective base will really want their candidate to win! If Romney emerges on top at the end and feels forced to nominate Santorum as VP, both camps will perceive a victory and the ground game of each base will consolidate into something that might be difficult to deal with. Right now, Romney has the structural ground game advantage, why would we want to drag this out so that a possible VP could build one also-just to watch their organizations merge? Thats fucking dangerous!
Why is the dynamic of "Romney feeling forced to pick Santorum as VP" as important as a "consolidated ground game"? Well, the only saving grace for republicans is the idea that Romney can be pushed around by the base. One of Romneys weakness's is actually a stealth strength. Unlike previous (R) prez, Romney brings a new dynamic to the table-"shapability". He can be molded-he has no core and therefore is attractive in a context where he is forced into positions forwarded by legislation landing on his desk as prez. But, he has to prove to the base that he is willing to cave under base pressure. A R/S ticket will likely confirm that and motivate the base to try and increase R's in congress. A long primary battle that ends in an R/S ticket will enable repubs to re-understand what is happening-they will perceive that they are close to accessing power, which might not actually be far from the truth (a rare condition for repubs). If this emerges under these conditions-get ready for a enthusiastic base with a strong ground game-moderates and independents who are less fearful of the outcome because Santorum is only VP, and a another wave of R's to congress. Every GOP base voter understands that increasing R's in congress is the only way Romney is acceptable, but to be motivated to continue a high level of involvement through the election-they have to be unified. This process is slowly switching from division to unification. And this (the argument in the previous two paragraphs) is the the money shot-the NightMare scenario as I see it. A primary battle that drags on a couple more months, maybe three-which enables both candidates to build state by state ground games-which enables them to hone their message by receiving state by state feedback on the trail-that creates the perception of Santorum as a legitimate VP-ending in a cave R/S ticket which consolidates both bases ground games-that motivate the base that they are making progress and only need more R's in congress to make Romney "shapeable".
The worst thing that could happen for repubs is a quick victory for Romney which will emerge because he will bring all the negative personal baggage regarding Santorum out now-he is their weakest candidate under these conditions-because that will confirm the GOP bases worst fears. They will feel like they are being forced into voting for a candidate the establishment wants. Romney will feel less pressure to pander to the radical elements of the base and begin to move to the center and pick a VP who is more center-oriented (compared to Santorum), which will confirm to the base that they can not shape him-resulting in divisions and lower levels of involvement. Also, think about if Romney wraps this thing up-What comes next? He will have to start developing policy positions and running against Obama. Now is the best environment for that to begin so that Romney can public oppose, as the nominee, all the democratic efforts to build upon economic growth.
Remember, the primary feature of the republican voter is how that person FEELS about something, "facts" are re-understood to fit in with that FEELING. Not the other way around. If you make them FEEL like Santorum is a legitimate winner (by dragggin this thing out), the facts will align themselves to that feeling and you will see an R/S. Now, does this mean Obama will lose, I dont believe so. But, it will make it harder and we can not afford to get too confident and start make the same mistakes they are making. They got really over-confident after the mid-terms and did not put anything into recruitment because they assumed any nominee could beat Obama and now they are paying the price-arguing over who is the most electable. Lets not make the same mistake. Its temping I know, cuz if we did get involved and end up winning anyway it would really turn the screw deep. (and that makes me salivate)
They are turning off independents and moderates with personhood amendments and union busting and confusion over their "ideal" ticket. GET OUT OF THE WAY AND LET THEM.