It seems like everyone here is busily arguing about whether there will be a Republican White Knight if Santorum wins Michigan on Tuesday or wins a majority of the delegates on Super Tuesday, March 6. Now, as a fan of the quadrennial political SuperBowl, I'd love to see the Republican Conference playoffs go into extra innings. But let's be honest with ourselves, folks -- there will be no white knight, and one of the two candidates in front of us right now will be the eventual Republican nominee for the finals on 11/6.
It's the math, stupid. Follow me past the orange socialist ...something...to find out why.
The standard argument for a white knight is echoed everywhere: there are still a number of big states which won't have closed on 3/6, among them the winner take all states of New Jersey and California. that's all very true -- but remember that most of the other plums are already past (Florida) or have at least already stopped accepting papers for the primary (Texas -- although that could be complicated, as I'll discuss below).
There are two realistic white knights out there: Jeb Bush and Chris Christie. None of the white knight candidates has the national prominence necessary to have a significant direct impact on the race, and so any such candidate will need a natural power base. (I mean, seriously? Mitch Daniels? Seriously?) Christie has New Jersey and New York. Bush has Florida and Texas.
Suppose that Chris Christie reaches for the brass ring after 3/6. On the morning of his announcement, he'll take all of New Jersey's delegates out of contention, and he will almost certainly destroy Romney's shot at the nomination. Problem is, he won't destroy Rick Santorum's shot -- because by splitting the -less objectively insane- comparatively moderate Republican vote, he'll give California to Rick Santorum. As things stand now, Santorum doesn't have the money to compete in California or New Jersey, but, add in a third contender and he can compete in one. Without California's delegates, the math doesn't allow a late entrant to get to 1455, which means there's no hope for a Christie nomination to do anything except give the prize to Santorum.
Bush is a more interesting story. If he enters the race, and if Texas magically realizes that issues with redistricting will force it to move its primary very late, then Texas could reopen nominations. In that case, his associations with his younger brother would almost certainly give him Texas. Florida is complicated by the fact that not all of its delegates are yet pledged; the Republican party could clearly give him those votes, too. Again, however, he'd split the vote in California and New Jersey, although in this case, he'd give the states to Romney.
So that means that either of the two potential white knights would spend hundreds of millions of dollars...for the purpose of nailing down the nomination for one of the two candidates already in the race. Now, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie have many stupid and self-destructive followers, yes -- but there's no evidence that either of them is himself stupid or self-destructive.
It's a fun wish-fulfillment, yes, but it Just Ain't Happening.