Just a typical sleepy Monday here at the Wrap. If, by "sleepy", you mean 21 separate polls taking the pulse of either the GOP primary for the presidency, or taking a distant glance at what might happen come November in the general election.
And even these numbers are subject to change, and fast. Our polling pals at PPP tweeted earlier tonight that Rick Santorum might be staging a finishing kick that could put him back on top of the Michigan primary (though, Tom Jensen did note that Santorum will have to overcome an early vote edge for Team Romney).
Add to that a bunch of new general election data, and there's plenty to talk about. The numbers follow, with a dollop of analysis after the jump.
GOP PRIMARY DATA:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 32, Santorum 28, Gingrich 14, Paul 12
NATIONAL (Politico/GWU Battleground): Santorum 36, Romney 34, Gingrich 13, Paul 7
ARIZONA (PPP): Romney 43, Santorum 26, Gingrich 18, Paul 11
ARIZONA (We Ask America): Romney 43, Santorum 27, Gingrich 21, Paul 10
MICHIGAN (American Research Group): Santorum 36, Romney 35, Paul 15, Gingrich 8
MICHIGAN (Baydoun Consulting/Foster McCollum White): Romney 39, Santorum 31, Gingrich 9, Paul 9
MICHIGAN (Mitchell Research/Rosetta Stone): Santorum 37, Romney 35, Gingrich 9, Paul 8
MICHIGAN (PPP): Romney 39, Santorum 37, Paul 13, Gingrich 9
MICHIGAN (Rasmussen): Romney 38, Santorum 36, Paul 11, Gingrich 10
MICHIGAN (We Ask America): Romney 37, Santorum 33, Paul 18, Gingrich 13
OHIO (Quinnipiac): Santorum 36, Romney 29, Gingrich 17, Paul 11
SOUTH DAKOTA (Nielson Brothers): Romney 33, Santorum 24, Gingrich 9, Paul 9
TENNESSEE (Vanderbilt University): Santorum 33, Romney 17, Paul 13, Gingrich 10
VERMONT (Castleton State College): Romney 34, Santorum 27, Paul 14, Gingrich 10
GENERAL ELECTION DATA:
NATIONAL (Politico/GWU Battleground Poll): Obama d. Romney (53-43); Obama d. Santorum (53-42)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (45-43); Paul d. Obama (43-41); Obama d. Santorum (45-43); Obama d. Gingrich (49-39)
NATIONAL (USA Today/Gallup): Santorum d. Obama (49-46); Obama tied with Romney (47-47)
PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg College): Obama d. Santorum (49-41); Obama d. Romney (48-37)
SOUTH DAKOTA (Nielson Brothers): Santorum d. Obama (45-33); Romney d. Obama (48-39) (44-35)
TENNESSEE (Vanderbilt University): Santorum d. Obama (42-38); Romney d. Obama (42-39); Paul d. Obama (40-39); Obama d. Gingrich (41-38)
VERMONT (Castleton State College): Obama d. Romney (58-33); Obama d. Santorum (60-31); Obama d. Paul (60-30); Obama d. Gingrich (65-24)
FIVE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM TODAY'S MASSIVE POLLING BUFFET
- Rick Santorum might be edging back into a good position in Michigan: It is just so odd how quickly things shift in this campaign. Over the weekend, the general consensus among the chattering classes was that Romney had righted the ship, aided largely by Santorum's debate catastrophe. Then came the Ford Field Fiasco, and the sense now is that Romney's edge might be slipping again. Election forecaster Harry Enten noted that the average of the polls conducted post-debate last Thursday had Romney up over five points. The weekend polls shed his edge to a single point.
- BUT...Mitt Romney will almost certainly pad his delegate edge tomorrow: It is no accident that there were six polls out of Michigan of recent vintage, but only two polls out of Arizona. You can no longer find anyone outside of Rick Santorum's immediate family that expects him to win Arizona tomorrow, and the two polls released today (by PPP and We Ask America) confirm the double-digit Romney lead. PPP said yesterday that they were so certain of a Romney win that they were bagging the second night of a planned two-night tracker in the Grand Canyon State. Since Arizona is a winner-take-all state, and Michigan is proportional, Santorum would need a landslide win in Michigan. He's not going to get it.
- The Gallup national tracking poll continues to shift away from Santorum: Gallup has been a little bit of a ping-pong ball throughout the primary season, and nothing changes now. Where they had Rick Santorum up by ten less than two weeks ago, they now have Rick Santorum down four points, as Mitt Romney reclaims a 32-28 lead. The key number in that national GOP primary, it seems, is still 37. As in: 37 percent, a number that no candidate has managed to top in the Gallup tracking poll.
- There is an almost ridiculous level of volatility in general election polling right now: Gallup might be the most GOP-friendly pollster in America this cycle, and their numbers are more than ten points different than what the Politico/GWU Battleground poll. Even more strange: as it relates to Mitt Romney, Gallup sees a four-point improvement for Barack Obama from last week. The House of Ras, meanwhile, sees Barack Obama doing 12 points worse against Romney than he was doing on Thursday. Um ... somebody is missing the fairway here. Badly.
- Perhaps the Obama campaign wants to set up shop in Nashville or Memphis: The "holy shit" poll of the weekend, for me, was the new Vanderbilt poll in Tennessee. They had Mitt Romney up by just three points over the president in the Volunteer State. Tennessee does have 11 electoral votes, and if things are really that close, it might be worth checking out for the president. However, a word of caution: Vanderbilt's polls have all been surprisingly bullish on the president, a sentiment not shared by other pollsters. A Middle Tennessee State poll in October had Romney leading Obama 44-29. So, if one of the marquee players in the polling game wants to pick up a unique state to take a quick temperature, might I suggest Tennessee?