Skip to main content

Here's the blunt truth. Today's polls show a virtual deadlock in Michigan between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.  The only way Mitt Romney "wins" Michigan is if he beats Santorum handily. That doesn't look like it's going to happen. So you know what? Here's how the narrative plays out on Wednesday.

(below the squiggle)

SANTORUM CAMP

"We were outspent 3-to-1. We were beset on all sides. The other team spread awful untruths about us and yet, we weren't knocked out of this thing. Your voices have been heard and you've registered your desire to have me, a true consistent conservative, represent our party and beat Barack Obama."

That will essentially be the speech Santorum delivers, whether Mitt wins by 2 or 3 points or whether he loses by 2 or 3 points. And you know what? It's true for the most part!

Unless Mitt can pull off a decisive victory (say, 6-8+ points), he loses.

The media will run with Santorum's narrative. They LOVE a horse race and more primaries means more money. So if it's even close, even if Mitt "wins", expect that the media will embrace Santorum's "come-from-behind" (sorry) David Vs. Goliath narrative.

Yes, Mitt's team will feign confidence and composure - the air of inevitability will return. But the GOP poo-bahs will wonder, behind the scenes, what to do about a candidate who barely ekes out a win in his "home state", spending 3-to-1, against an underfunded, woefully unorganized, utterly bat-shit crazy lunatic. They will still have the same doubts they'd have had if Santorum had actually won. I can't say I blame them.

And that, my friends, is a WINNER for Team Blue.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (27+ / 0-)

    I've become re-radicalized. Thanks a lot you bunch of oligarchical fascist sons-of-bitches. But once again, I have no choice. Bring it the fuck on.

    by mdmslle on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 10:26:43 AM PST

  •  We need it to get to Super Tuesday (7+ / 0-)

    On Super Tuesday Mitt loses the m ajority of states - and either Gingrich (winning GA and a couple other southern states) and Santorum win a couple -

    the upshot being that at the end of the day, Mitt, Rick and Newt are nearly tied in # of delegates - heading into the latter contests-

    Remember how that worked for Obama in 08- Hillary wasn't prepared to win caucuses and her big money machine had no idea how to engage in retail politics - same will be true w/Mitt-

    Meaning we get closer to no one having a near-majority of delegates heading into the convention.

    The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. --George Orwell

    by jgkojak on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 10:33:47 AM PST

    •  One big difference between 08 / Hillary (5+ / 0-)

      Obama and the GOP is that both candidates were loved by their supporters.  Hugely popular and while it was a vicious primary the candidates themselves were both considered competent and excited the base to vote for them in the General.  

      GOP has no such luxury.  I have read a lot lately at Red State and can't believe how lackluster the support for either Romney or Santorum is.

      I laugh when they suggest this primary is like 08.  It is the opposite in terms of enthusiasm and GOTV

      Barack Obama: "These guys want to be paid like rock stars when all they're doing is lip-synching capitalism." may21, 2010

      by vc2 on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 10:59:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Mark Penn factor can't be dismissed (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MKSinSA, mdmslle, Seneca Doane, HoundDog

        Team Obama made a strategic decision to invest time and money in the caucus states. Team Clinton did not, partly because they were run by Mark Penn who mistakenly believed that the primaries were winner-take-all w/ respect to the delegates.

        I would agree there is some parallel between Romney and Clinton 08, but compared to Romney, she ran a near-perfect campaign against a formidable opponent. Romney, not so much.

      •  Also, the Democratic base was excited (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoundDog

        While Obama had his huge support from African Americans and Hillary had support from women, nearly all of the Democratic base would have voted for either candidate had one or the other not been in the race at that point.  I don't see that with this current crop of the GOP presidential field.  The Paulites don't want to be seen anywhere near Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum, and Newt and Ricky's base hate Rmoney with a passion equaled only by their hatred of women, gays, people of color, and those of non-Christian faiths.  And even more ominous for the GOP, over half of the Republican voters wish there were another candidate to ride in like a white knight and save the party.

  •  Not how things work in the real world (6+ / 0-)

    Hell, Romney doesn't even have to win a state in order to "win" it. [See Iowa, Maine...etc]

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 10:36:30 AM PST

  •  there is going to be no such narrative (9+ / 0-)

    the way it's been set up is whoever wins, even by the tiniest of margins, will get a boost of momentum. Especially since Santorum has been leading in Michigan for most of the last 3 weeks.

    It's nice to imagine, but unless Santorum squeaks this one out, it will be portrayed as Romney reasserting his frontrunner status.

    •  There's nothing easier for the cable talking heads (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Richard Cranium, cryonaut

      than to breathlessly declare that the winner of a close primary has "momentum" and has displayed some sort of political genius by eeking out a win.  That's going to be the ubiquitous narrative on Wednesday morning. Only question is who gets the benefit in this case.  In Iowa, Romney got the boost.

    •  agreed (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cryonaut, Deep Texan

      A big win in Arizona, coupled with a small win in Michigan, is extremely likely to result in overwhelmingly favorable coverage for Romney ("momentum," "comeback," "clear frontrunner," etc.) and bad coverage for Santorum ("the debate killed him"). Sure, Santorum will make some of the arguments in the diary; but I don't imagine they'll work.

      I'd love to be wrong, since I want to see a protracted nomination contest. But I'm pretty confident about this prediction.

      •  That narrative lasts exactly ONE week (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mdmslle

        Because on Super Tuesday, Romney is going to get throttled. He not win a single state and then the narrative changes. Also, it may just be anecdotal but every time someone like Santorum, Gingrich, or whomever is the flavor of the month actually starts polling better than Mittens, they tank. Obviously, the negative advertising has a lot to do with it, but there is some evidence that these guys can't handle being the center of attention (see Gingrich's flacid debate performance in Fla.)

        But come Super Tuesday, Romney will be a loser and the race will trudge on, at least until April.

        •  I hope you're right. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          mdmslle

          Don't forget, though, that a sufficiently positive narrative could make all of the previous Super Tuesday polling obsolete. Ohio, for example, is within reach if Santorum gets clobbered in the press after MI/AZ. If Romney takes OH, along with VA (a 100% lock), and the other three candidates continue to split the anti-Romney vote, he could easily get a plurality of delegates on Super Tuesday.

          Hopefully, though, he'll lose enough states so that the media feel compelled to call it a "dead heat" or whatever.

  •  In Romney's defense, while (9+ / 0-)

    he's not doing great with ordinary voters, he's doing extremely well among his friends who employ them.

    "Gussie, a glutton for punishment, stared at himself in the mirror."

    by GussieFN on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 10:40:05 AM PST

  •  Republicans Are Scared Sh*tless..... (10+ / 0-)

    It doesn't really matter who wins Michigan or Super Tuesday.  Republicans are screwed either way.  

    Republicans I've talked to lately are embarrassed & fed up.  One 70 year old well educated, wealthy lady on a plane told me "I've been a Republican all my life, but I can't vote Republican anymore.  Santorum is going to get creamed.....no women will vote for him".  

    •  which is why (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mdmslle

      which is why, those of us who live in states with a primary which allows cross-over voting for independents, like MA, can ask for a rethuglican ballot & vote for "sanitorium"= JOY!

    •  Sensible republicans may vote O (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mdmslle, majcmb1

      by the time Nov rolls around. He is centrist enough not to scare the daylights out of them, has managed the country competently in that it hasn't spiraled out of control and many may feel better another 4 years of Obama than take a chance on Mittens and then lose 2016.  Better the devil you know.

      It isn't as if Mittens has given them any reason to vote for him.  He doesn't even have personality to drive them to the polls.

      LOL then again, i am personally convinced that Bush voted for Obama.  He was no friend of McCain's and saw the difference between the two in the very tense economic meetings which by all accounts Obama took control of and McCain just fumbled around.  So I may be wearing rose tinted glasses.

      Barack Obama: "These guys want to be paid like rock stars when all they're doing is lip-synching capitalism." may21, 2010

      by vc2 on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 11:08:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  powers that be will spin it for Romney (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    duha, cardinal, mdmslle

    down by 15, back to whatever....it's an incredible comeback! or so they'll say.

  •  well, there you are (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mdmslle

    how's the remodeling coming along? Either I haven't seen any diaries on it, or you've thrown in the towel.

    Republicans only want government small enough to fit in a woman's private parts. -- Caroline Heldman, Professor of Politics, Occidental College

    by Mnemosyne on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 10:57:04 AM PST

    •  hey mnemosyne (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mnemosyne

      I threw in the towel.

      partially because my dad is freaking out a bit. After I moved the fridge he sort of freaked out.

      I've been slowly sort of moving boxes around a bit. And he actually agreed to remove the non functional freezer from the workshop room. So now there's a teeny bit more room in there.

      An example: about two weeks ago, I told him I wanted my step sister to come pick up some of the books that were on the shelves and a few other things that we'd boxed up so we could move some stuff around. he was like, "OK". Then when my step sister showed up, seems he'd forgotten and completely freaked out, "none of this stuff leaves here until catherine (my step mom) comes home!"

      uh boy.

      She's not coming home.

      And meanwhile I;m living like a troll in the basement and he has ZERO idea what's down here.

      Ultimately, my step sis took the stuff out, clandestinely. But this is where we are. I'm really tired and just want to move on.

      Fortunately, there's lots of work here in DC to keep me busy (and sane) and I expect to begin making moves soon on the television program we'll be producing later this year (the book review show). I'm even applying for a booth at NN for the production studio. What I just can't do much more of is fight my dad on this.

      I'm not sure what's going to happen. My step mom is hanging on. My dad's going for another knee surgery probably in June and I just want to leave...

      sigh.

      thanks for asking, though.

      I've become re-radicalized. Thanks a lot you bunch of oligarchical fascist sons-of-bitches. But once again, I have no choice. Bring it the fuck on.

      by mdmslle on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 11:39:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  hang in there (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mdmslle

        You've got lots of sympathy coming from folks here. And perhaps you can continue to remove small amounts clandestinely, although it sounds as if you're stuck with the big, noticeable stuff.

        {{{mdmslle}}}

        Republicans only want government small enough to fit in a woman's private parts. -- Caroline Heldman, Professor of Politics, Occidental College

        by Mnemosyne on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 05:13:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I think the diarist has it right. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mdmslle, majcmb1

    A squeaker for Romney in his home state against a disorganized goofball is a mess, particularly since Michigan awards delegates proportionally.  Dems, Santorum, Gingrich, all will bang the drum about this, raising the (obviously valid) question about Romney's electability against Obama, who is the opposite of a disorganized goofball.  And the media will eat it up because this is the story that they want to tell--the non-partisans will side with the Dems because visions of a long-drawn-out primary ending in a convention free-for-all is the sort of story they dream about.    

    The best thing that could happen, regardless of who wins, would be for a contest so tight that by the end of the night it still isn't clear who won.  That will mark the 3d completely screwed up primary for the GOP this season, cementing the observation that it is the entire party, not just this or that candidate, who is incompetent and untrustworthy.

    "You can't make up bullshit and call that a law. This isn't Texas."--Sid Hatfield

    by Ron Ebest on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 11:02:56 AM PST

  •  The MI Republican party (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Deep Texan, mdmslle, MKSinSA, majcmb1

    has made rules this year that favor Mitt.

    Delegates will be awarded two per CD, winner take all. Two at--large delegates will be awarded, one each to the candidates with the highest statewide vote totals.

    So for example, when Santorum wins CD2, with it's large number of Christian conservatives, as he is expected to, he gets two delegates, just like Mitt will when he wins in John Conyer's district, with far fewer (and more moderate) Republican voters. So even if Santorum wins, his advantage in overall numbers may not translate into a majority of delegates.

    This scheme also ensures that Ron Paul and Newt are locked out of the contest for delegates.

    "A lie is not the other side of a story; it's just a lie."

    by happy camper on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 11:22:06 AM PST

  •  doesn't matter (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mdmslle, MKSinSA

    the votes will be close.  doesn't matter who wins.  both will get delegates.

    -You want to change the system, run for office.

    by Deep Texan on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 11:32:35 AM PST

  •  No, at this point a win is a win... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mdmslle

    If Romney wins (which he will) even if by 1%, the narrative will be that he survived a tough challenge and that the nomination is now presumably his. Perhaps some people will bring up the spending, but it'll be a sideline story not the main story. You'll see.

    it fitfully blows, half conceals, half discloses

    by Addison on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 12:29:01 PM PST

    •  i think that's entirely possible. (0+ / 0-)

      it's just a matter of what the media ends up going with. Both camps will claim victory, that's for sure. And I think this thing drags on regardless. SuperTuesday will not be kind to Mitt.

      Of course, all bets are off if Newtster decides to drop.

      I've become re-radicalized. Thanks a lot you bunch of oligarchical fascist sons-of-bitches. But once again, I have no choice. Bring it the fuck on.

      by mdmslle on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 12:43:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  a tie...or a virtual tie (0+ / 0-)

    in Michigan...would  be the sweetest of all possible outcomes because...it would still be a massive political embarassment and setback for Willard Romney, now matter how he and his slithering minions decide they want to try to spin it, plus it would be a moral victory for Rick Santorum (speaking of slithering), plus it would help to ensure the filthfest called a Republican presidential primary campaign continues, plus it would force Republican'ts to continue to focus their time, energy, effort and resources on...going at each other (continuing to bolster the popcorn industry), etc., etc., etc.

    Oh, please, Michiganders...please give us a tie.

  •  One problem for Santorum in using (0+ / 0-)

    the "coming-from-behind" narrative is that he can't really call it the Santorum Surge anymore, as since the last few weeks,  he was no longer bringing up the rear in the polls, but well ahead a few weeks ago.  So, this is more like Santorum dribbling-down-from-above."  

    Whatever you call it, this stiff competition, is creating a real mess for the GOP, causing some to wonder who's going to clean up after this party, with Santorum all over the place.  Romney's reputation is taking a real pounding as Santorum piles up enough enough delegates to prevent Romney from consumating this primary.

    Maybe it will be Jeb Bush who cleans up this mess?  It's getting really hard to imagine how this is going to come out in the end.  

    So if it's even close, even if Mitt "wins", expect that the media will embrace Santorum's "come-from-behind" (sorry) David Vs. Goliath narrative.

    The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

    by HoundDog on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:52:37 AM PST

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site