Wow. I was glancing over the exit poll demographics and found this from the NYTime's report. What it shows is that the highest income groups were over represented in the Ohio primary:
Income of $100,000 or more (30% of voters!!!!) And of course Mittens wins them BIG:
Romney 46%
Santorum 32%
Gingrich 12%
Paul 9%
And how did Mittens fair with other income groups?
$50,000 or less (32% of voters)
Santorum 37%
Romney 34%
$50,000 to $100,000 (37% of voters)
Santorum 43%
Romney 32%
Now I ask you, is $100,000 a healthy income?... in Ohio? YES! Of course it is!
But do 30% of Ohioans make that much per year? No WAY!
Are 30% of Ohio voters typically in this bracket? No FREAKIN' WAY!
Let's see the 2008 exit poll for Ohio:
2008 Ohio Vote by Income
$50,000 or less (44% of voters)
Obama 26%
McCain 17%
$50,000 to $100,000 (26% of voters)
Obama 14%
McCain 12%
$100,000 or more (only 21% of voters!)
Obama 9%
McCain 12%
Do you see that?
The GOP primary over represented Ohio's upper income group way out of whack to who actually votes in the general election, and this was true even compared to the 2008 GOP primary where the $100k voters were also only 21% of the total.
So Mitten's performance was significantly inflated above the norm by either measure. If you break it down by where the actual votes came from Tuesday you get the following:
Income of:
$100,000 or more (30% of voters) Santorum Romney
Percentage of
Income group Percent of total vote
Santorum 32% 10%
Romney 46% 14%
$50,000 to $100,000 (37% of voters)
Santorum 43% 16%
Romney 32% 12%
$50,000 or less (32% of voters)
Santorum 37% 12%
Romney 34% 11%
TOTALS
Santorum 37%
Romney 37%
Now let's correct these numbers to a more normal, Ohio general election voting demographic:
Income of:
$100,000 or more (21% of voters) Santorum Romney
Percentage of
Income group Percent of total vote
Santorum 32% 7%
Romney 46% 10%
$50,000 to $100,000 (26% of voters)
Santorum 43% 11%
Romney 32% 8%
$50,000 or less (44% of voters)
Santorum 37% 16%
Romney 34% 15%
TOTALS
Santorum 34%
Romney 33%
So now we see that Santorum not only would have won, but both Paul and Gingrich would have done a little better since both Romney and Santorum take less total share of the vote.
The lesson here is that Romney not only inhabits a different world from most of us, but that his only real appeal is with the voters from that same world. I mean just look at the numbers I've laid out here. Romney is losing the primary among the middle and lower income brackets even within the GOP electorate!
I don't know about you, but I am really liking our chances come November.
And that's whether it's Romney or not.