With all the attention being on Alabama & Mississippi, the ongoing question of "Is Mitt Romney ready to wrap this race up?" clouds the process.
In most election cycles, Romney would've had this race wrapped up after Florida and Nevada when it appeared that he at last, would sail to the nomination. But right now, he's still fighting off the likes of Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.
We all know the problems that Mitt Romney has had in riling the base up.
We've heard since 2008 how he was "too moderate" of a Governor in Massachusets due to the passing of "Romneycare" and formerly calling himself a "progressive". We've heard what's sometimes referred to as the "elephant in the room" in Romney's Mormon faith. We've heard that he's just too damn rich to be able to connect.
We also know he might be a smart, well-educated and well-connected man but a total klutz on the campaign trail.
However we also know what solves those problems. The fact is that a majority of the base will vote for anyone as long as they aren't voting for the other. I think most of us here would've voted for Joe Manchin in 2004 if it meant George W. Bush would be going back to Crawford, Texas.
You don't need to win the most delegates but just win the media narrative. If you are a candidate for office and the biggest headline around you is a question (such as "Is Rick Santorum the ultimate conservative choice?" or "Is Mitt Romney inevitable?") then it is safe to say you aren't supplying any answers. Organization can help you look professional but it still comes down to the candidate vs. the voters.
So what exactly is Mitt Romney's ultimate problem?
It's the fact that it's the year 2012.
As every armchair sociologist in the world can tell you, we live in a 24-hour news cycle and get our news anywhere from a status update to a breaking news ticker. The primaries might focus on one state at a time, but really they are a national affair.
How a candidate adjusts to a year is usually when they are primed for the most success. Sam Jones defeated Earl Long, the brother of a highly popular and dominant force, in the 1940 Louisiana Governor's election by adapting to the times. A few years before that it seemed that you couldn't get a Long out of office until their family line stopped. Jones railed against corruption and spoils system even though he was doing very similar things.
It's Politics 101 really. Find a weakness and hammer it home. Find a theme and live and die by it.
This year's theme is very populist with the Occupy movement & Buffet Rule contributing to a lot of debate. In fact, you could take a bigger step and say that challenging the status quo (from Arab Spring to Occupy) has dominated the headlines since last year. Hell, even college is under assault if you are Rick Santorum.
When a movement really gains steam, the worst place to be is on the inside. Mitt Romney is on the inside.
Every time Romney opens his mouth he digs himself a bigger hole. I'm pretty sure he's stated at least one thing about his childhood that he can relate to every state. If you are a poor voter in Alabama do you really want to hear a guy say that he loves "cheesy grits" or hunts "varmints" in his spare time?
A "gaffe" isn't essentially an error or a false statement but "a clumsy social error or faux pas" and Mitt has made his fair share of them. But Romney could've avoided all of those gaffes without appearing "elitist". He could state that he knows how Wall Street works and can fix the errors in it while preserving capitalism which is literally a word that sends conservatives into an orgasmic swoon.
But no, Mitt Romney is a businessman and thus can not be shaken off message. Businessmen are used to having things their way or well, you get fired which is something they like doing. Look at Romney's face the next time his supporters start chanting while he's making a speech. Also look at that piece about Romney aides complaining about him.
However, no matter what tricks you do, you can't fire your opposition. Romney has surely tried but the fact of the matter is he represents what everyone in the world hates right now.
A rich, unaware, status quo, second-generation man. This is the year 2012 and Romney may be the GOP nominee but he'll never shake off that stereotype no matter how much shade the trees cast over what he truly believes.
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A quick note, I mentioned the 1940 Louisiana race because I just got done reading a few books on Louisiana politics and Earl Long. So that's my way of saying, check out "Inside The Carnival" and "The Saga of Uncle Earl" if you are curious.