A very nice discussion on Calculated Risk of public vs. private employment data. He contrasts employment during the Obama and Bush administrations. (Be sure to check out the graphs.)
Presumably most are aware by now that there have been fewer private employment job losses during the Obama administration than the Bush administration. (Something about an economic collapse occurring on Bush's watch.) And it is gradually becoming better known that under Bush public sector employment increased substantially, while under Obama it has decreased, playing a significant role in the poor employment numbers.
Indeed it turns out that private sector employment grew at a 2.0% year-over-year rate in February. The fastest growth since 2006! (See the earlier post on Year over Year Change in Payroll Employment.) Kind of makes one wonder what the economy would look like if Republican-dominated state governments weren't sabotaging the economy across the nation, but I digress.
What caught my eye was Mr. McBride's conclusion that
It appears the public sector jobs losses are slowing, and it looks likely that the decline in public payrolls will probably end mid-year 2012.
If McBride is correct, and he has a decent track record on this sort of thing, this suggests that a substantial drag on the economy will be ending just about the time of the party conventions, and the kick-off of the general election campaigns.
If this does happen, not only is it good news for the millions of unemployed and underemployed, it would certainly be a big boost for Obama's reelection prospects.