There has been several diaries lately about the Latino vote in this election cycle. I made the comment in one thread that Texas is the end all be all of the GOP electoral strategy. Without Texas and its 38 electoral votes, the GOP is lost. Texas is literaly the keystone of a big red "L" that covers the plains and goes into the South.
According to the New York Times 2008 exit polls John McCain took 35% of the Latino vote in 2008. Now he did get 4.4 million votes in Texas, but President Obama received 3.5 million votes in Texas. (Look at the gender splits too, it will be important.)
A little effort and Texas could move closer to Blue in 2012.
Using just the numbers from 2008. If Pres. Obama could manage the 80-20 split of the Latino vote he would gain 280,000 votes which means that the GOP would lose 280,000 votes.
That would make the new margins 4.187 million GOP votes with 3.8 million votes for Obama. Still not a win for the President, but look at the exit polls and the percentage of women votes and the gender breakdown. If that number flips it is another change of 300,000 votes for each side. And THAT does move Texas into play.
Texas has 36 Congressional Districts and the new census added four districts. The Democratic Party needs to think of playing in Texas this cycle. Force the GOP into a rearguard action. The GOP has demonized the Latino population and pretty much spit on women. Shifting the margins in both demographics in Texas and the GOP is in a world of hurt.