Running late on this one as the early figures are starting to come out !
The Polling is nearly closed for the Qld 2012 Election so I thought it was a good time to write up my predictions and provide a bit of a seat by seat guide. I am looking forward to participating in the Live Digest - I have followed all the "Official Unofficial" Live Digests but haven't yet felt comfortable enough to comment.
As for the departing Labor Government - despite the fact they will be smashed into oblivion, they are not that bad. Nothing like the hated, incompetent NSW Labor Government. Unfortunately Anna Bligh the ALP Premier has ruined our future chances by literally wiping out all the rivals for Premier within the ALP.
I am only looking at the ALP (Labor) held seats as all of the LNP (Liberal National Party) seats are safe (at least from the ALP - they may lose a couple to the right wing Katters Australia Party).
For those unfamiliar with Queensland politics we have only one parliament - the upper house or state senate was abolished by the ALP in the 1920s. The reason for this is that it was never an elected body - similar to the US, the senators were appointed, rather than elected. When the ALP finally got into power (basically when workers and women were allowed to vote) they finally persuaded the Governor of the day to appoint enough new member to vote the upper house out of existence. What does this mean ? It means it is winner takes all - with no separate election for premier or upper house, the leader of the party with a majority of members gets to be premier. This does not happen in any other state in Australia (I guess Nebraska is the closest example).
The other thing that sets Queensland apart is the optional preferential voting system. You can either vote 1 for who you want or you preference from first to last who you want to win. This system greatly advantaged the ALP as the conservative vote was split between the mainstream Liberal Party, the rural National Party and the racist One Nation Party. Voters often didn't preference enough so the ALP candidates could win with a plurality of the vote. Since the merger of the Liberal and National parties and the demise of One Nation, this election will be held with Labor at a disadvantage with many left wing voters giving their vote to the Greens (they are much stronger here).
This means several urban seats are at risk that previously wouldn't have been.
I have listed in two tables below the seat held by the ALP in the order of how safe they are. I have not bothered to list the LNP seats as all bar one of these are Safe. The major difference with ... ratings is that there are not many Lean LNP... there will be a few undecideds at the end of the night but most will be decided within an hour or two of polls closing (yes that bad).
Okay this list relies heavily on the recent Federal Election where the ALP lost most of their seats in Queensland. The 8 seats which we kept will contain the few State seats we keep tonight. We held 7 Brisbane seats: Petrie (because of local issues which may not be in play tonight), Lilley, Griffin, Moreton, Blair, Rankin, Oxley and the regional seat of Capricornia. Those seats in Bold, based on the 2010 Federal Election voted LNP, those in Italics voted ALP. Any not mentioned are ultra safe LNP/Conservative Independent/Katters Australia Party.
The biggest upsets where the ALP could survive, but which is hard to show on existing polling is Greenslopes, Broadwater and Cairns.
Safe Labor (4):
1. South Brisbane (15.0%) Held by Anna Bligh, the Premier who will win on Greens Preferences.
2. Bundamba (21.2%) A dirt poor urban seat held by rebellious ALP back bencer Jo Ann Miller who often criticized Anna Bligh.
3. Inala (21.5%). A dirt poor urban seat normally ultra safe Labor.
4. Woodridge (25.4%). A dirt poor urban seat normally ultra safe Labor.
Likely Labor (5):
5. Waterford (16.5%). A dirt poor urban seat held by rebellious back bencher Evan Moorhead.
6. Rockhampton (17.9%) This is an ALP heartland seat that is part of the ALP held Federal Seat of Capricornia.
7. Sandgate (12.4%) Part of the mortgage belt.
8. Mackay (16.7%), On the 2010 Federal Election this seat would have been won by Labor with 55.0% of the 2-party preferred vote
9. Nudgee (OPEN-14.3%). A mortgage belt seat. Despite the incumbent retiring this seat should be held by the ALP.
So the above 9 seats are the only ones I am sure the ALP will win.
Lean Labor (2):
Broadwater (2.0%) This should be a safe LNP seat, but sitting ALP member Peta-Kaye Croft is personally populer and two LNP candidates were disendorsed over drink driving and sex scandals. There is also a popular conservative independent mayor (think conservative version of Angus King who will split the Conservative vote). Big upset should be on the cards here. Likely too close to call on election night.
Brisbane Central (6.0%). Grace Grace should win here despite a narrow margin, as Campbell Newman lives in this seat but decided against running here due to offending many of the residents with his large road projects.
Tossup (5):
Logan (OPEN-13.9%). This seat is a dirt poor urban seat that should vote ALP, but has some rural areas that are very conservative. If the voters are kind we will keep this one. Probably too close to call on election night.
Cairns (OPEN-4.2%). This is an open seat but the LNP candidate publicly stated drunk women are at least partly responsible for being raped. If the LNP win this seat it will be a disgrace.
Greenslopes (6.9%). This seat has a potential future leader in Cameron Dick who has had a lot of resources thrown at this seat. If the voters are kind, this seat which the ALP would have won based on the 2010 vote, we might scrape through on this one.
Thuringowa (8.5%). This seat would have been won the LNP based on the 2010 election figures, but this is a seat where the ALP voters will stick with the incumbent, Craig Wallace, a popular local member and Bligh Government Minister. Whether he can win over the swing voters is far from certain.
Murrumba (7.2%) Dean Wells has held this seat since 1986. Long since a backbencher.
Lean LNP (16):
Mirani (0.6%). The only LNP seat that I have listed based on it being the only seat that the ALP would have won based on 2010 election figures that is held by the LNP. This seat has seen A LOT of new voters go there, attracted by job opportunities in the mining industry. The only LNP seat we could win (doubt it though).
Whitsunday (3.2%). A regional seat that is hurting due to a reliance on tourism. Sitting incumbent Jan Jarrett could pull an upset despite having almost no margin for error. If she loses she would likely regain the seat at the next election if she chooses.
Cook (2.2%). Probably gone, given the aboriginal voters are not thrilled with their traditional ALP allies.
Ipswich (16.7%). A dirt poor urban seat that should be an ALP stronghold. Polling here shows ALP being smashed.
Pine Rivers (OPEN-4.6%) Mortgage belt suburban seat. Tough to hold but possible.
Redcliffe (5.6%) An ALP seat that is often targeted by the LNP. Could still be saved but likely gone.
Albert (6.5%)
Mundingburra (OPEN-6.6%). Regional Swing Seat. Probably gone.
Ashgrove (7.1%) Sigh. Kate Jones has done better than expected but Campbell Newman probably has this. There have been several polls that surveyed as much as 10% of the district. I doubt they got this one wrong. But I will be drunk for a week if a miracle happens ! Close though. No worse than 55% Newman-45% Jones
Stafford (7.3%) Potential future leader Stirling Hinchcliffe is actually more a representative for property developers rather than his constituents. He has annoyed too many people in the electorate with the disruptive major road project (Airport Link) to survive. Possibly this may be too close to call on election night but I doubt it.
Keppel (7.6%) Regional ALP seat that will likely go the LNP for one term.
Bulimba (7.8%) Typical Suburban swing seat. May be saved but doubtful.
Yeerongpilly (8.7%). A typical suburban swing seat with some poor areas. Could be an ALP retain if voters changed their mind prior to voting.
Algester (9.2%). A combination of dirt poor suburban areas and mortage belt. Should be Safe ALP but likely gone.
Capalaba (9.7%). A combination of dirt poor suburban areas and mortage belt. Should be Safe ALP but likely gone.
Ipswich West (9.6%). A combination of dirt poor suburban areas and wealthy rural areas. Should be Safe ALP but likely gone.
Sunnybank (OPEN-10.8%). A typical suburban swing seat. Gone. Departing member was hounded out of parliament because the Premier did not like her.
ALP Held Seats now Gone Baby Gone (Safe LNP) (14):
Lytton (OPEN-12.2%). This seat will go to the LNP because the best ALP candidate lost preselection due to making statements admitting the ALP had no chance of winning. Ironically this seat would have been safe if he had of won preselection.
Stretton (OPEN-9.5%). This seat has seen an ALP preselection loser go rogue and run as an independent splitting the vote. We have no hope here. This will be one of the first seats called.
Mount Coot-tha (5.3%). This seat contains our beloved Deputy Premier and Treasurer. Got same sex civil unions through parliament as a pre-election stunt (awesome but self serving political maneuver). This seat could go to the Greens but I think this will be the second seat called after Stretton.
Toowoomba North (3.2%). This is the only conservative seat held by an ALP member and it will finally go. I suspect the incumbent Kerry Shine who barely survived last time might only get a small swing against him (it will be enough).
Mulgrave (8.1%). A regional swing seat. Gone
Barron River (2.3%) A regional swing seat. Gone.
Everton (1.4%). A middle class seat. Gone.
Morayfield (9.1%). ALP on the nose here. Gone.
Mount Ommaney (OPEN-4.8%). Typical suburban swing seat. There is a reason why the incumbent left - this seat is gone.
Pumicestone (5.0%). Dirt poor suburban area. Conservative rural voters normally in the minority, but enough votes here that it will likely be lost.
Springwood (4.1%) Typical suburban swing seat. Gone.
Mansfield (4.4%) Typical suburban swing seat. Gone.
Kallangur (4.6%). Typical suburban swing seat. Gone.
Townsville (4.0%). Only a narrow ALP win based on 2010 figures. Gone baby gone.