March 19, 2012 1:42 PM
Will primary turnout be a concern for GOP?
According to CBS News estimates, 2012 voter turnout is about 6 percent lower compared to the same contests in 2008. On a state-by-state basis, the 9.2 million votes so far in this primary is fewer than the 9.79 million in 2008.
My bold Lets remember 2008 all the GOP Presidential Primary Candidates were under the shadow of George Bush who was polling at around 30%. The GOP candidates were running on keeping the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq going. The economy was breaking down but the banks had not collapsed yet. Jon McCain had not picked Sarah Palin yet. The GOP was weak during the Primaries but not as weak as they would be after Sarah was picked as VP and after the banks collapsed. In other words McCain got weaker after the Primaries but I do not feel the polling at the time ever really showed this.
Now the GOP is running 6% behind McCain in 2008 in Primary turnout despite President Obama having unemployment rates higher than any President has ever had who won reelection since WW2.
Despite Ron Paul bringing in new voters to the GOP Primaries who never voted GOP before. It should be noted that it is very likely that some of Ron's voters might not vote GOP in the general election unless Ron is on the ticket thus further lowering GOP general election turnout.
Though some states have seen bumps in turnout from 2008 — including the first three states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — voting has been down in several subsequent states compared to 2008.
It is after these first three races that we see the effect of the GOP debates on the GOP Presidential Candidates. Here we see the effects of Trayvon Martin and Rush Limbaugh GOP voters who were wavering got influenced by their African American and Women friends.
Of course, some special factors could explain lower turnout: In Virginia, only two of the four candidates were on the ballot; Missouri was just a non-binding ”beauty contest” primary; And Idaho held caucuses instead of a primary this year. On the flip side, Sen. John McCain had clinched the nomination by the time Mississippi and Alabama voted in 2008, and the longer-than-expected primary season this year likely led to increased voter participation in last Tuesday’s contests –
http://www.cbsnews.com/...
After McCain clinched the nomination in Missouri GOP turnout should have been lower than it would have been if the race was not all but decided. In 2012 the GOP does not have that problem but still their voter turnout in the Primaries is 6% less than what Jon McCain got.
In the end no matter the reasons why the 6% drop in GOP primary turnout if the trend continues what happens next?
Close states/districts
States/districts in the 2008 United States Presidential election where the margin of victory was less than 5%. Blue states/districts went for Obama, red for McCain. Yellow states were won by either candidate by 5% or more. Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia and Iowa were won by Bush in 2004 but were won by Obama by a margin of more than 5% in 2008.
Red font color denotes states won by Republican John McCain; blue denotes those won by Democrat Barack Obama.
States/districts where the margin of victory was under 5% (88 electoral votes):
Missouri 0.14%
North Carolina 0.32%
Indiana 1.04%
Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district 1.19%
Montana 2.25%
Florida 2.82%
Ohio 4.59%
States/districts where margin of victory was more than 5% but less than 10% (64 electoral votes):
Georgia 5.21%
Virginia 6.29%
South Dakota 8.41%
Arizona 8.52%
North Dakota 8.63%
Colorado 8.95%
South Carolina 8.97%
Iowa 9.54%
New Hampshire 9.65%
Pennsylvania 9.69%
Nebraska’s 1st congressional district 9.77%
http://en.wikipedia.org/...
Missouri and Montana went for McCain with less than 5% of the vote we should flip them easy.
Georgia South Dakota, Arizona ( especially with no McCain on the ticket ), North Dakota, South Carolina, Nebraska’s 1 st congressional district are all potential pickups.
While we should not expect Obama given his constant surrender to the GOP on the issues to get anywhere near the support he had last time. Given these polling numbers the GOP should expect 6% less votes than they had in 2008 with John McCain running.
That shows us just how weak the entire GOP field of candidates are even with Ron Paul bringing in more new voters to the GOP than last time.
Rush’s comments about Abortion and the GOP’s war on women are having an effect and Women vote more than Men do. There is no scenario where the GOP wins the WH without winning more White Women voters than McCain got.
Trayvon Martin very well might be the Emmet Till of his generation and drive African American voter turnout to something approaching what Obama got in 2008.
The GOP’s war on Hispanic voters is not forgotten our turnout will be less than 2008 because Obama has not only done nothing for us, he has deported us in record numbers while curiously leaving White Illegal Immigrants alone. Still we are much more angry at the GOP.
Union Voters the Reagan Democrats in the Midwest are seeing that Obama by raising the Miles Per Gallon cars get is creating union jobs in the Midwest and as long as gas is around $4 a gallon those cars will keep on selling in record numbers.
In the Wisconsin recall election of Gov Walker we will see if the GOP’s anti Union, anti Women talk and negative job creation numbers can win a Midwestern State before the Presidential election.
Outside of another Diebold stolen election I don’t see how we lose Wisconsin.
Outside of Obama surrendering to the Republicans again on cutting Social Security, Medicare, getting us into another war with Iran, Bailing out the banks again, or higher unemployment numbers as things stand now Obama should win more states than he did last time.
Also GOP voters tend to be older and thanks to private healthcare many more of them will have died before they could get on Medicare before they get to the polls . I often wonder if McCain would have won the election if we had gotten National Healthcare 10 years ago and more older voters had been alive in 2008 to vote for McCain.