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Leading Off:

FL-Sen: Wow. This is not the kind of article Connie Mack needs. The Republican congressman was hailed as a savior candidate for the GOP last fall, when he abruptly reversed course (for a second time) and decided to enter the race against Dem Sen. Bill Nelson after all. But now, this:

Six months later, however, Mack has proven to be neither a potent statewide candidate nor a shoo-in to win the Republican nomination against his little-known rivals.

From Washington to Tallahassee to local GOP clubs, GOP professionals and activists are buzzing about Mack's underwhelming campaign and debut as a statewide candidate. Some want another candidate.

It's getting awfully, awfully late to find someone else, though—and the fact is, there just isn't anyone else! Click through for the full details on Republican discontent with Mack, though, ranging from typical conservative dissatisfaction to scorn for his first TV ad (you know, the one with the monkeys). Said one operative about that spot: "Look on the bright side: At least they can tell their donors they didn't waste any money on production." Hah!

1Q Fundraising:

CT-Sen: Chris Shays (R): $455K raised; Linda McMahon (R): $172K raised

IN-Sen: Rep. Joe Donnelly (D): $312K raised, $861K cash-on-hand

IN-Gov: Rep. Mike Pence (R): $1.8 mil raised, $4.9 mil cash-on-hand; John Gregg (D): $585K raised, $1.5 mil cash-on-hand

MI-Sen: Pete Hoekstra (R): $700K raised

MO-Sen: Rep. Todd Akin (R): $416K raised, $1.4 mil cash-on-hand

MO-Gov: Gov. Jay Nixon (D): $1.7 mil raised, $6 mil cash-on-hand

ND-Sen: Rep. Rick Berg (R): $943K raised, $1.6 mil cash-on-hand; Duane Sand (R): $250K raised, $81K cash-on-hand

NM-Sen: Hector Balderas (D): $127K raised, $395K cash-on-hand

NV-Sen: Sen. Dean Heller (R): $1.1 mil raised, $4.3 mil cash-on-hand; Rep. Shelley Berkley (D): $1.4 mil raised, $4.4 mil cash-on-hand

OH-Sen: Josh Mandel (R): $2 mil raised, $5.2 mil cash-on-hand

WI-Sen: Jeff Fitzgerald (R): $25K raised, $74K cash-on-hand

Senate:

PA-Sen: There comes a time for a certain level of rich guy—rich enough to seed his campaign, maybe even put in seven figures, but not so rich that full-blown self-funding won't have a material effect on his net worth—when he's got to put up or shut up, and it seems like Steve Welch has decided on the latter. He's already given his campaign a million bucks, but if such donations were trivial for him, then he'd be throwing in more cash. Instead, he's pretty much gone dark, only running a small statewide Fox News cable buy, with nothing on broadcast in Philadelphia.

That's in contrast to Tom Smith, whom we've always called Welch's "fellow rich guy" but is either a lot wealthier or is just less afraid of his kids getting pissed that their inheritance is getting forked over to a bunch of TV stations. According to PoliticsPA, Smith has a final-week buy worth 750 gross ratings points in the Philly area alone. The other Republican of any note (and it ain't much) is Sam Rohrer, and he isn't going on the air at all. So it sure seems like Smith will have the edge heading into election day.

WI-Sen: The PPP poll of Wisconsin on behalf of Daily Kos (see WI-Gov item below) also contains a Senate portion, which also got incrementally worse for the Dems thanks to the switch from registered to likely voters. Tammy Baldwin trails Tommy Thompson by 2, down from a 1-point lead in February, though she retains small leads over the other two Republicans tested. The LV screen for this summer's recall election, though, may not be the best framework for viewing the Senate race in November, but click the link for our full post with all the numbers at Daily Kos Elections. (David Jarman)

Gubernatorial:

NC-Gov, NC-LG: Polling of the Democratic gubernatorial primary in North Carolina has been pretty thin so far, heavy on the undecideds. Another poll's out, and "undecided" still leads the way, though it's getting down to a more manageable 42%. The survey, taken on behalf of the State Employees Association of North Carolina by Tulchin Research, finds ex-Rep. Bob Etheridge at 32, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton at 22, and state Rep. Bill Faison at 4. SEANC appears to still be staying neutral in the gubernatorial primary, though the real point of the sample may have been to check out the Lt. Governor primary, where they have backed one candidate, ex-state Rep. and ex-Wake Co. Commissioner Linda Coleman. Coleman leads state Sen. Eric Mansfield 45-36 in that portion. (David Jarman)

WI-Gov: If you haven't seen it yet, Daily Kos just released a new poll (conducted by PPP) of the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall. Thanks in large part to a switch from a registered voter screen to a likely voter screen, GOP Gov. Scott Walker's numbers have improved. He now leads Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett 50-45 and former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk 50-43. There are many more details at the link (including matchups for the lieutenant governor's race and the Democratic gubernatorial primary), as well as our analysis of all the results.

In other recall-related news, Falk picked up a big endorsement last week, from the Wisconsin AFL-CIO. Meanwhile mayor Tom Barrett just scored the support of Rep. Gwen Moore, who represents Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District.

House:

AZ-08: A mystery poll of the special election race has surfaced... and it's mysterious because a) it's by a Republican pollster, National Research, and it shows Jesse Kelly doing the best, but neither Kelly's campaign nor the NRCC are taking credit for the poll. And b) it only contains general election numbers, rather than a test of the primary, which is what's most relevant, seeing as how that's on Tuesday. In any event, Kelly (who lost narrowly to Gabby Giffords in '10) beats presumptive Dem nominee Ron Barber 49-45, while Barber ties Martha McSally 42-42, beats Dave Sitton "by 4" and state Sen. Frank Antenori "by 6." I'll also throw in a c), actually. The poll also claims that Kelly's name rec is 93%! I'd be surprised if any politician short of Barack Obama and John McCain had that level of name rec in this district. (David Jarman)

CA-15: There's a pretty serious backlog of Democrats hoping to run in the deep blue 15th District... in 2014. In addition to former White House official Ro Khanna and state Senate Majority Leader Ellen Corbett, there's now a third name in the mix, Pleasanton (pop. 70K) mayor Jennifer Hosterman, who recently set up an FEC committee. This seat is currently held by 80-year-old Dem Rep. Pete Stark, who everyone seems to expect will retire after this term.

But as we've noted, Stark is facing a spirited challenge from one guy who didn't want to wait, Dublin city councilor Eric Swalwell—and given his recent outbursts and wild accusations, it's possible all of these folks planning on bids next cycle will regret taking their time. Of course, Stark has a history of making outrageous statements (the LA Times put together a good highlight reel a few years ago), so in a sense this is all nothing new—but what's different here is that he finally has an opponent who has the chops to make some hay of it. So I wonder: If Swalwell pulls off an upset, will Khanna, Corbett, and Hosterman still forge ahead in two years' time?

CO-03: Oops. Looks like freshman GOP Rep. Scott Tipton's campaign manager, Michael Fortney, said the quiet part loud:

"With gas prices doubled, the national debt doubled, and unemployment has barely moved, we feel good."
So they "feel good" because of continued fallout from the economic meltdown? Fortunately, Tipton's Democratic opponent, state House Minority Leader Sal Pace, is already giving him grief about it—and Tipton, it appears, has gone silent. (Note also that the Colorado Observer, which originally reported the quote, appears to have changed it to a less-damaging version, without making any note that the piece was edited.)

CT-05: The union endorsements continue to roll in for state House Speaker Chris Donovan, who is seeking the Democratic nod to succeed Rep. Chris Murphy. (Murphy of course is running for Senate.) This time it's the Connecticut Carpenters, who represent some 5,000 members in the state. Donovan's strong record on labor issues has allowed him to almost run the table when it comes to union backing—you can see the very long list of labor groups supporting him at the link.

MI-07: Hey Professor, why are you being such a tease? After twice deferring his decision on a comeback bid against GOP Rep. Tim Walberg, ex-Rep. Joe Schwarz says he'll make a final decision on the race this week—after classes end at the University of Michigan, where he is an instructor at the Ford School of Public Policy. Incidentally, the last day of classes at UM was yesterday, so hopefully this means that Schwarz has run out of deferral excuses. (Schwarz, you'll recall, represented this district for one term as a Republican, but is being courted to run as a Democrat by the DCCC.) (James L)

NC-11: Oh my. Oh my. I don't know if you'll have the same reaction to young Ethan Wingfield's ad that I had, but just... oh my. In it, the Republican hopeful (all of 26 years old) stands in front of an easel with multiple hand-drawn depictions of America's financial condition, including one magic-marker illustration of an American flag! Wingfield looks like a junior high student delivering a not-particularly-impressive presentation to his civics class. I'm truly blown away by it. And that's even before he gets to the second page, which features a quote (again handwritten) from the Bible, which reads: "The borrower is slave to the lender." Anyhow, you've just gotta watch the spot, which you can do here or below:

I should also point out that Wingfield's biblical quote only includes the second half of the sentence in question. The first part says: "The rich rule over the poor." But that's not a very appropriate sentiment for a GOP primary, now is it? Or perhaps I should say it's all too appropriate.

NC-13: The American Foundations Committee, a super PAC supporting former U.S. Attorney George Holding that we previously wrote about here, just threw down another $137K on airtime in an effort to knock down Wake County commissioner Paul Coble. (You can watch the ad they're running here. Question: Does the average American have any idea that the final "9" the announcer rattles off is actually a German "nein"? Quite a stretch.) The AFC, made up mostly of Holding's friends and family members, sure has spent a lot on this race, some $367K to date.

NH-01: When a poll comes out that shows you losing 87-5, usually there's no coming back from that. DNC committeewoman Joanne Dowdell was the unfortunate candidate on the wrong end of that survey, with ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter on top; maybe even more convincing to Dowdell than the toplines was the unusual fact that the poll was allegedly commissioned by the DCCC, indicating they were committed to greasing Shea-Porter's path back to Congress. With all that in mind, Dowdell dropped out last Friday. With third wheel Andrew Hosmer also recently departing (to run for state Senate), that indeed gives Shea-Porter a clear shot at the nomination, though she has a tough fight in November to dislodge Rep. Frank Guinta (who knocked her out in 2010). (David Jarman)

NM-01: And then there was one (or so it would seem): A judge just knocked retired Army Sgt. Gary Smith off the ballot for a lack of valid signatures. If he doesn't appeal, that would leave just former state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones on the Republican ballot. Her fundraising has been really weak (just $55K this quarter), but Smith hasn't even bothered to file his FEC report yet (which was due on Sunday night). So I wonder how seriously he's even taking this.

NY-25, NY-27: EMILY's List just endorsed two upstate New York Democrats who suddenly face much tougher races thanks to redistricting and Republican recruitment: veteran Louise Slaughter in the 25th and first-termer Kathy Hochul in the 27th.

PA-04: The York Dispatch has a poll out on the GOP primary in the 4th District, taken by local pollster Polk-Lepson Research Group. As you'd expect if you've been following this race closely, the two top contenders are York County Commissioner Chris Reilly and state Rep. Scott Perry, who have 18% and 13% respectively. Everyone else is back in single digits, but 57% are undecided with just one week to go before election day.

PA-17: The Scranton local of the American Postal Workers Union just gave their endorsement to attorney Matt Cartwright, who is trying to unseat Rep. Tim Holden in the Democratic primary. Perhaps I'm wrong, but it feels like there's been less union involvement in this race than others in Pennsylvania (especially the 12th District).

PA-18: FreedomWorks, which had to tuck tail and abandon its attempt to unseat Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch not long ago, is still sticking with another longshot race that others have given up on. They've thrown down $25K on behalf of former Capitol Hill staffer Evan Feinberg, who is hoping to knock off Rep. Tim Murphy. But the Club for Growth recently stood down, and Feinberg's chances look dim, which has to make you wonder why FreedomWorks is still bothering here.

RI-01: This may be one of the least surprising "I'm running for Congress" announcements ever, since he's been steadily telegraphing it in various steps for the better part of a year now, often in the most grandiose terms imaginable, but in any event, businessman and self-described "conservative Democrat" Anthony Gemma finally declared his primary challenge to Rep. David Cicilline on Monday. Gemma's announcement focused exclusively on Republican opponent Brendan Doherty, though, which is a little odd since Gemma's main pitch is that he'll provide a more electable alternative in November against Doherty than Cicilline (damaged by news of how screwed up Providence's city finances were, after Cicilline had already left as mayor to become a member of the House). (David Jarman)

TX-16: Big Dog Alert! Bill Clinton just visited El Paso last week to support Rep. Silvestre Reyes, who faces a legitimate challenge from former city councilman Beto O'Rourke in the Democratic primary. While Clinton hasn't hesitated to get involved in Dem-on-Dem matchups this cycle (see MD-06, PA-AG, etc.), this may be the first time he's weighed in when an incumbent's career has potentially been at stake. Reyes of course was a backer of Hillary Clinton's in the 2008 presidential race, but his connection to Bill seems a bit more personal, as the veteran Reyes served in Congress during Clinton's second term in the White House.

P.S. Cook's Dave Wasserman makes a good point related to all this: When is the Big Dog going to get involved in the member-vs.-member race in NJ-09, where Steve Rothman was an Obama supporter but Bill Pascrell backed Hillary Clinton?

WA-01: I know comparing Dennis Kucinich to a garden gnome is kind of easy and lame, but he's actually starting to resemble a specific garden gnome: the well-traveled one from Amélie. He was back in Washington state over the weekend, and apparently enjoyed it a great deal, as now he's got an unscientific poll up on his website, specifically asking visitors whether he should run for Congress in the Evergreen State. Washington's filing deadline is May 18, so he'd need to officially relocate to by then if he were to follow through on this plan. Ohio's Secretary of State has already confirmed that he wouldn't need to resign his current seat if he moved. (David Jarman)

In entirely unrelated WA-01 news, Suzan DelBene picked up the endorsement of one of the state Democrats' biggest names: outgoing Gov. Chris Gregoire, who penned a fundraising letter for her. (DelBene, who lost narrowly in WA-08 in 2010, then went on to be appointed by Gregoire as head of the state Revenue Dept., where she served for a year before resigning for another congressional run.) Gregoire's not exactly the most popular figure locally, though; this might help with contributions, but I'd say DelBene's endorsement from the Boeing Machinists union is likelier to move a lot more votes. (David Jarman)

Other Races:

PA-AG: Ex-Rep. Patrick Murphy just dropped a negative ad on his primary opponent, former prosecutor Kathleen Kane, hitting her squarely on her Democratic credentials. Murphy accuses Kane's family-owned trucking company of supporting anti-union policies (where she's been listed as an executive on political donation forms), and also points out that Kane has donated to many Republicans over the years, including (recently) Tom Corbett, who won the state's open governor's race just last cycle. You can watch at the link or below:

WI Recall: Democratic state Rep. Donna Seidel is up with an ad attacking her recall opponent, fellow state Rep. Jerry Petrowski (the last-minute Republican substitute for ex-state Sen. Pam Galloway, who abruptly resigned last month). Various women speaking to the camera go after Petrowski for opposing equal pay for women, cutting funding for breast and cervical cancer screening, and voting against emergency contraception for rape victims. You can watch at the link or below:
Grab Bag:

Politico: Dave Catanese, who is one of the most industrious horserace reporters in DC, is moving on—not from Politico, where he'll still write, but to a different beat, focusing more on key races of national significance. We've linked to Catanese countless times and his coverage has been extremely valuable to us, so needless to say, we wish him the best of luck. (Catanese's colleague Charlie Mahtesian is filling some of the gap with a new blog of his own.)

Pres-by-CD: And like that, we're done! Thanks to jeffmd's dogged hard work, we have 2008 presidential election results for every single new congressional district in the nation (except for Kansas, which is the only state that still hasn't completed the redistricting process). Spreadsheets are now available for Alabama, Kentucky, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Wisconsin. In the Granite State, we're still waiting on Gov. John Lynch to sign the new congressional map, but since we don't expect a veto, we've gone ahead and crunched the numbers, and we also have a new Google Maps overlay and redistribution analysis. And as always, you can find our complete pres-by-CD spreadsheet here.

YG Action Fund: It's amazing how House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's super PAC, the YG Action Fund, can't stop being a story all its own. After getting battered for weeks over the PAC's decision to spend money to defeat fellow GOP Rep. Don Manzullo in Illinois, here's the latest embarrassment for Cantor: The PAC only raised $55,000 in the entire first quarter, barely more than the $52K it shelled out against Manzullo. Maybe their finance director just sucks, or maybe donors don't like the idea of giving to a fund which trains its fire on members of the House Republican caucus. Either way, pitiful.

Redistricting Roundup:

KS Redistricting: Kansas, as you may know, is on track for the dubious distinction of being the last state without a new congressional map, thanks to a bitter, deep split between the "moderate" and "conservative" wings of the Republican Party (with minority Democrats exploiting the divide). Now, for the first time, it seems that at least some of the various players are starting to acknowledge the possibility that this may all have to get settled in court. There's still time, but not a whole lot: The state's primary is on August 7.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Christie approval 50% among registered voters (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Rich in PA, LordMike, KingofSpades

    Nine points lower than last week's Q poll.  38% disapprove.  Monmouth University poll.

    http://www.monmouth.edu/...

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 05:26:27 AM PDT

    •  People would rather have a strong, bad leader... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, milkbone

      ...than a weaker "better" one.  This structurally benefits Republicans, since they're authoritarians at heart and therefore produce and advance stereotypically "strong" leaders more than our party does; in fact, when we get someone like that, we tend to dislike them.

      But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

      by Rich in PA on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 05:37:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What I think (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Larsstephens

        is that people know the legislature is Democratic so they feel there is some balance.  And there is some balance as we saw when the Senate Judiciary Committee rejected Christie's nominee for the Supreme Court.

        The NJ-Gov race will still be very competitive.

        "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

        by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:13:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Same thing in NM and NV (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoosierD42, askew, Larsstephens

          Republican governors are struggling in swing states where they control the legislature like Ohio and Florida.

          "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

          by conspiracy on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:32:34 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  It will come down to the candidate (0+ / 0-)

          I've said this before, but Obama came close to winning Monmouth and Morris county in 2008 and then each county voted 2-1 Christie in 2009.  The Dems need someone who will not only flip Middlesex, but put up a fight in Monmouth and/or Morris.

          •  Part of the problem is (0+ / 0-)

            Morris and Monmouth are home to Christie and his running mate, respectively. It may be hard to make inroads there. Flipping Middlesex is a must, as is reclaiming some South Jersey territory - losing in every county except Cumberland and Camden was very harmful to us.

            22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 12:22:05 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  PA-AG: The Philadelphia Daily News endorsed Kane. (3+ / 0-)
    While we agree with his stance on many issues, we disagree that the state’s highest law-enforcement office should be a bully pulpit, which is a role more suited to offices like the governor’s. For example, when Attorney General Tom Corbett’s pursuit of players in the Bonusgate scandal focused on Democratic suspects, some questioned whether his investigations were politically motivated.

    That’s territory that an attorney general should avoid.

    Kane, who has an impressive endorsement from Bill Clinton, has served as prosecutor in Lackawanna County for more than a decade. She specialized in sexual-abuse cases, public corruption and fraud cases, as well as murders, assaults and rapes. She makes her case that prosecutions should not be colored by political ambitions, and vows to prosecute crime regardless of political party. Her familiarity with the state’s court system will help. In fact, her focus on “crime” instead of “issues” won us over. She would push for more transparency in the chemicals used in fracking, and recognizes the perils confronting the state’s consumers, which get more complicated by the day.

    http://www.philly.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 05:31:17 AM PDT

    •  I thought Kane would have some traction... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Christopher Walker

      ...vs. Murphy because people are tired of AGs that see the job as a stepping stone.

      But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

      by Rich in PA on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 05:36:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Something like this? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Amber6541

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 05:43:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Kane (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        Hmm... what makes you think she doesn't see the job as a stepping stone? I feel like most politicians (in both parties) who run for AG see it as a stepping stone, even if that's not the only reason they run for AG.

        Home: IL-10. College: PA-07 (starting this upcoming fall).

        by IllinoyedR on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:14:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Does it really matter? I'll take her at her word. (0+ / 0-)

          She's running on the slogan "prosecutor, not a politician". Not all AG's actually use the office as a stepping stone. Look at North Carolina.

          20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:23:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  ndrwmls10 (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv, Audrid

            I never said "all," I said "most." I also never said that whether she's running as a stepping stone or not is "important," I just asked why he thinks that she's not running as a stepping stone. I'm not attacking one of your favorites; I'm just asking RichPA a question. Please let him answer it as it was asked of him (and was asking about his opinion). He's from PA and you're not, so I'd still like to hear his answer.

            Home: IL-10. College: PA-07 (starting this upcoming fall).

            by IllinoyedR on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:32:52 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The better question is (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              IllinoyedR, Adam B

              Why does everyone think Murphy is using it as a stepping stone.

              She gets the benefit of the doubt, he gets looked at with a crooked eye.  Such is life.

              She's got no chance so it won't really matter what either person's intent is.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:36:41 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Interesting perspective (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera

                You seem to be right; his being a former US Rep appears to make people think he's running for AG purely as a stepping stone. Regardless of either candidate's aspirations, this should be a very interesting county by county results map on the morning after the primary.

                Home: IL-10. College: PA-07 (starting this upcoming fall).

                by IllinoyedR on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:00:11 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Well (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  bumiputera, jncca

                  Let me be very honest, if either of them wins AG in 2012 they are running for Governor in 2018.  

                  That can be taken to the bank, and I think a lot of the informed electorate, particularly those who might be keen on the prosecutor not politician idea, are fully aware of that.

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:13:34 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Because of their careers to date. (0+ / 0-)

                She's been a prosecutor, he's been a congressman, albeit briefly. She looks to me moving up in her chosen niche while he's looking for a political comeback and it wouldn't stop with AG.  Nothing wrong with that, but it makes him vulnerable to Kane's implicit or explicit contrast.  

                But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

                by Rich in PA on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 09:46:26 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  ..... (0+ / 0-)

              20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

              by ndrwmls10 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:38:33 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I can take critisim from a Democrat, but (0+ / 0-)

              I will not from you. Especially on this site.

              20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

              by ndrwmls10 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:40:41 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Uncalled For (9+ / 0-)

                Completely. This was not criticism at all, but a rational reply. Maybe you need to go cool off or something and come back later, because Illinoyed did absolutely nothing wrong.

                22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

                by wwmiv on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:43:28 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  What is this? (0+ / 0-)
                  I'm not attacking one of your favorites; I'm just asking RichPA a question. Please let him answer it as it was asked of him (and was asking about his opinion). He's from PA and you're not, so I'd still like to hear his answer.
                  Here we go again. I'm completely and 100% rational and calm.

                  20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                  by ndrwmls10 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:47:49 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  I think (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  wwmiv, tietack, R30A

                  being a Republican should not make him a less valued member of the DKE community.

                  •  Absolutly. (0+ / 0-)

                    Of course there are limitations in place for a reason.

                    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:54:02 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  And none of them apply here (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      tietack, Audrid

                      We don't force people to show a Democrat registration to question why you believe something.  Especially when your belief isn't based on any public information but your belief that Kane won't use the office as a stepping stone but that Murphy will.  

                      It's not born out by fact, so it's right to question it.  

                      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                      by rdw72777 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:58:18 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  He is perfectly within bounds here! (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      wwmiv, R30A

                      Stop it.

                      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

                      by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:06:44 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                  •  Especially in this conversation (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    tietack, R30A

                    When questioning a Dem vs Dem primary and not touting a GOP issue/candidate in any way, party affiliation simply shouldn't be an issue.

                    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                    by rdw72777 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:54:18 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

              •  Then answer the question (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                wwmiv

                Why do you presume she won't use it as a stepping stone.  I'm guessing the second she were elected you'd be the first person touting her gubernatorial prospects, and then if she won her presidential prospects.

                She's trying to buy the office, isn't that a bigger concern.  No fundraising except family donations, loans, etc.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:47:16 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Well (0+ / 0-)

                  I also think that given ndrw's previous reactions to people pointing out his propensity to favor female candidates that this comment is inappropriate as well, if only for the "go along to get along" philosophy.

                  22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

                  by wwmiv on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:48:59 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  No, actually I don't find her campaigning (0+ / 0-)

                  skills to be that great. I do however find her to be a great prosecutor, who would make a great AG. I would hope she doesn't try to run for higher office and if she does that would be a disappointment.  

                  20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                  by ndrwmls10 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:52:24 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Oh come on (7+ / 0-)

                Please stop taking things so personally. Affiliation should be irrelevant to good manners.

                "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

                by conspiracy on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:50:26 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  One of the amazing things about this site (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                tietack

                Is that the republicans who post here are courteous, smart, and sane. They give me hope for the rest of the country.

                Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

                by R30A on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:34:48 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  I think IllinoyedR is nice :/ (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                R30A

                I might have policy disagreements with him, but from the few conversations I've had with him, he seems very nice.  I didn't see anything particularly malicious in his statement.

                "They don't think it be like it is, but it do." -- Oscar Gamble; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-5); Economic Left/Right: -7.38; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.13

                by AndySonSon on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:54:45 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  Who cares of it's a stepping stone? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            The Caped Composer, James Allen

            The AG position is actually much less sexy and important than most lay people think. It's basically a ministerial function. It's primary significance is as a stepping stone due to voters outsized appraisal of the importance of the office.

            26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:35:41 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I don't know whether to believe her or not (0+ / 0-)

          I'm merely saying that she has identified a legitimate avenue of attack vs. Murphy.

          But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

          by Rich in PA on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 09:43:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  So tired (0+ / 0-)

        That we just elected our AG to governor :-)

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:35:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The Clinton endorsement is "impressive"? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Adam B, James Allen, itskevin

      sounds like they either don't know Clinton's rubric for endorsements or they're impressed that she got one before Bill Pascrell.

      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:10:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The average voter has no clue (0+ / 0-)

        about the "Clinton way". Not that she doesn't deserve his endorsment. She's got an impressive resume. That's what we have to understand about this race. It isn't a choice between a great candidate and a crappy one. It's a choice between two great candidates. One just happens to be running on a message that this office shouldn't be a stepping stone.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:14:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not talking about the average voter (0+ / 0-)

          I'm talking about the Daily News editorial board. They should know better.

          22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:19:17 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  It's an unimpressive message (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Adam B

          And it's pretty much all she's running on.  If she can find somewhere that Murphy said he's using it to move up then so be it.  

          But I also fail to see why it should matter.  She probably needed a lesson in campaign 101.  People might say they hate something, but actions speak louder than words.  Congress may have a 30% approval rating, but you'll see 90%+ re-elects.  People might say they don't want the AG office to be a stepping stone, but then nominate and/or elect the AG to run for Governor often.  

          It's a poor issue to run on, and certainly not one that gains traction in Philadelphia.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:43:20 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  For the record: an AG's job is in no way similar (4+ / 0-)

            to that of a prosecutor. There is a popular misconception that an AG is some sir of supe criminal prosecutor which is really not the case. The AG's job is to mange representation of the state in legal actions to which the state is a party. In practice this means that an AG's primary task is to manage lawsuits to which the state is a defendant and his/her secondary task is to manage enforcement actions and other lawsuits in which the state is a plaintiff. Neither of these are relates to the prosecutor's role of building a criminal case against a defendant.

            26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:08:22 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Kane worked for Hillarys campaign in 08 (0+ / 0-)

          Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

          by wishingwell on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:28:18 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I think there is a clear bounce for Romney (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, itskevin

    Across all the polling since Santorum dropped out but it was to be expected.

    Now, I'm very interested to see the PPP national and Florida numbers that are due. Note that late last year in their previous FL poll they found Obama up 45-44 over Romney. So far they've teased that Romney is at 45 in this new poll. Meanwhile, the addition of Marco Rubio doesn't help.

    http://twitter.com/...

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 05:31:18 AM PDT

  •  PA-Sen (0+ / 0-)

    Sam Rohrer isn't going on TV because his home county's only TV station is channel 69 and it's un-biblical.

    But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

    by Rich in PA on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 05:34:32 AM PDT

    •  GOP primary for PA-SEN (0+ / 0-)

      Here in the center of the state, I see yard signs (oh, spare me the rejoinder) and bumper stickers for Rohrer. Not a trace of the two rich guys.

      In the general election, I doubt it will matter who the Republicans put up.  One could argue that it's a good thing, on some modest scale, to bleed a lot of money out of Republican millionaires, no matter how they spend it.  

      A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

      by Christopher Walker on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 08:25:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It will be interesting to see (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Christopher Walker

        Campaign expenditures when all is said and done.  Obviously I wouldn't expect major spending in a primary with 0% chance in the general, but still there should be some trace of them.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 08:31:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  That's how it was for governor as well. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        If you went by side-of-the-road evidence, you would have thought Mad Sam was a viable challenger to Bland Tom.  But signs don't vote.

        And yeah, the idea that any of these bozos could crack 45% against Casey is delusional, but a fool and his money etc. etc.

        But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

        by Rich in PA on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 09:42:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  NY-06: Gillibrand endorsments soon for Meng? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541, Christopher Walker
    After an event on equal pay at N.Y.U. Law this morning, Gillibrand posed for photos with Assemblywoman Grace Meng, who said she was absorbing positive energy from the senator and Councilwoman Letitia James.

    "We're making sure you win," Gillibrand told Meng.

    As the women mixed up for various groups photos, Gillibrand gave Meng a serious look and told her to "keep fighting" to get to Congress.

    A spokesman declined to say whether Gillibrand would make a formal endorsement in the race, but the senator has made electing women a key part of her political profile. Last year she launched an initiative called "Off the Sidelines," to encourage women to run for office.

    http://www.capitalnewyork.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 05:55:39 AM PDT

    •  This is pretty funny. The video from (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Amber6541

      the roll out of the endorsements from Quinn, Lui, de Blasio, and Thompson. The strangeness of the event....

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:04:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Sigh (0+ / 0-)

    Monmouth poll finds Chris Christie with 51/35 approval rating: http://www.politickernj.com/...

    22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:11:12 AM PDT

  •  NJ-10 repost from last night (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ndrwmls10, dc1000

    tension between Essex and Hudson Dem organizations over the latter's endorsement of Nia Gill. Essex threatened to divert support to Payne that would otherwise go to Bob Menendez (a Hudson resident), which caused Menendez to make an angry phone call to Hudson Dem chairman Mark Smith asking him to reconsider the Gill endorsement. http://www.politickernj.com/...

    22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:13:13 AM PDT

  •  FL-Sen: Someone parachute in Dave Spence! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The Caped Composer, James Allen

    He'll save them!

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:16:27 AM PDT

  •  MN-08: Clark outraised Cravaack by almost (2+ / 0-)

    $80,000. She raised $320,000 and has $418,266. At this point, in terms of fundraising, Nolan and Anderson are almost complete non-factors.

    http://minnesota.publicradio.org/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:19:38 AM PDT

    •  Given the agreement by (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ndrwmls10, WisJohn

      DKE's resident Minnesotans (is it just me or do they give Indiana a run for their money as a midsize Midwestern state which owns 1/3 of DKE?) to some extent or another re: the regional dynamics of this race, I'd still rather have Nolan or Anderson, actually.

      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:25:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Convention? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ndrwmls10

      Is Clark abiding by the convention result?  I'd hate to see us get Ashwin Madia'ed again.

      NY-12 in real life, @BobbyBigWheel on Twitter

      by Bobby Big Wheel on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:27:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I believe she said she wouldn't. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        drhoosierdem

        Conventions are a bit undemocratic anyways.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:36:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Completely idiotic, the MN system (0+ / 0-)

          It baffles me how they still have it. I'm not taking sides here, but I wouldn't blame Clarke to ignore convention results all the same.

          Oh hell. Just don't support Robert Winningham in Indiana's 9th Congressional District

          by drhoosierdem on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:47:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  corre (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          WisJohn, tietack

          Anderson and Nolan have agreed to abide by the party's endorsement. Clark, knowing she has no shot, said she would not. The problem is that Minnesota's primaries are so darn late. Clark is trailing badly in primary polls (likely including her own internal she sort of leaked, although I have not personally seen the details of her internals). So what I fear is going to happen is that supporters from outside the district prop up her campaign to the point of ekeing out a 34-33-33 primary win with this outside cash. Then the voters of the district still don't like her, and cravaack wins 45-44 with 10 points going to a local IP candidate. I have nightmares about this race. It is actually really bad.

          Or another possible scenario is she uses her money to go nuclear on Nolan, and drive up his negatives, but he wins the primary anyways, but is battered at broke, allowing Crossroads to play up the "Nolan is bad" meme that she started.  If she does this, i want her drummed out of the party perminantly.

          •  the other people to blame for this situation (0+ / 0-)

            Are not running. I have had terse words with two of them personally. They have a different end game in this race (big picture style), and that bothers me. But they are the politicians, and I am simply a campaign strategist/staffer.

            •  Who didn't run that should have? (0+ / 0-)

              Sertich? Reinart? Prettener-Solon?

              Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, 6/5/2012- the day the great error of Wisconsin history will be corrected!

              by WisJohn on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:53:12 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Obviously none of them ran. :) (3+ / 0-)

                Sertich I really can't blame. I consider tony a personal friend of mine (my sister has a Sertich baby, fwiw, although through a cousin, not him). He has a young wife and baby at home, and he has an ideal job for him.

                Prettner-Solon has a statewide gig, so I understand her not wanting to move to Washington, especially after she was legitimately was going to retire before Dayton begged her to run with him.

                Reinert would have been a good get. Not going to make any excuses for him.

                Don Ness would have been great. Ross Litman would have been a solid get. Obviously the heavy hitters like Rukavina or Bakk would have put the race away early, but they aren't interested in Washington.

                Basically the overall feeling is that the Iron Range DFL delegation decided collectively against running for congress to ensure no Iron Range seats were axes in redistricting. And FWIW, it more or less worked, as every Iron Range DFLer has a seat to run in, although Anzelc was hurt a bit in terms of how tough his district is. Basically none of the local pols are going to stick their head out for any of these 3 candidates. They were initially talking about lining up behind Nolan, but he changed his tune in terms of his intentions early in the race (which is why I left his campaign). So now there is Quiet talk about 2014.

              •  I Wish Sen. Tony Lourey Had Run..... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                WisJohn

                The district he represents covers both the Northland and exurbia, so he'd be embraced to some degree by both groups.  

          •  Was Dayton the first major candidate (0+ / 0-)

            to force a primary (he was rejected by the MN caucus in '10) -- or were there others before him?

            "I hope; therefore, I can live."
            For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

            by tietack on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 08:07:26 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  PA-17 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker

    New add attacking Holden by the league of conservation voters, size is 230k. The anti incumbent group is also spending 200k, I think DKE has reported that ad already though.

    http://www.politicspa.com/...

    Oh hell. Just don't support Robert Winningham in Indiana's 9th Congressional District

    by drhoosierdem on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:46:28 AM PDT

  •  PA-17: fresh of yesterday's endorsement (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541, Christopher Walker

    (of Cartwright) the League of Conservation Voters is going on the air with a hefty $230K buy against Holden, the ad hits him for supporting Bush's energy policy and opposing a wind energy initiative by Obama:

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:47:53 AM PDT

  •  Who else are they gonna get? (0+ / 0-)

    Short of Jeb Bush, Mack gives the Republicans their best chance at winning. The GOP field here in Florida isn't exactly major league at the moment. If they can't win with Mack then they never had a chance to begin with.

  •  Rep. Barrow raised $257K, $1M COH. (4+ / 0-)

    Way outpacing his Republican challengers, Rick Allen: $76K raised, $231K COH; Wright McLeod: $150K raised, $199K COH; St. Rep. Lee Anderson: $70K raised, $48K COH; and rich girl Maria Sheffield: $14K raised, and $100K of her own money loaned, n/a COH.

    Link

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:03:19 AM PDT

  •  RCP map (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bobby Big Wheel, WisJohn

    I actually think this looks quite fair given where things stand. I even think AZ, MO, MT and SC are generous.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:08:13 AM PDT

    •  Hmm (0+ / 0-)

      My thoughts on RCP's map:

      Montana and Indiana should be dark red, Missouri and Arizona light red, New Mexico dark blue, and Colorado light blue. Other than that I agree with everything even South Carolina.

      22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

      by wwmiv on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:11:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Pretty good (0+ / 0-)

      I'm more optimistic on Oregon, North Dakota and Nevada and more pessimistic on South Carolina, Arizona and Missouri, but I feel like that's pretty accurate.

      NY-12 in real life, @BobbyBigWheel on Twitter

      by Bobby Big Wheel on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:12:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  BS (0+ / 0-)

      Typical RConservativeP ratins.  Yeah, I'm sure Oregon and New Mexico are leans.  And PA is a pure tossup.

      "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

      by Paleo on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:25:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well (0+ / 0-)

        I know I'm not in the mainstream here on Penn, but I actually think that in a tighter race than 2008 that it could be vulnerable for Obama because Romney will turn back the tide among the rich SEPA suburbs that Obama made inroads into combined with the trend away from Dems in general in SWPA.

        22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

        by wwmiv on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:27:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That doesn't make it a tossup (0+ / 0-)

          Lean, fine.  But neither the recent polling nor the history would place it in the tossup category.

          "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

          by Paleo on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:31:44 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Recent Polling? (0+ / 0-)

            Has Obama not doing as well there as in other states which are traditionally worse for Dems, such as Ohio and Colorado.

            22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

            by wwmiv on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:34:18 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  He has a 6 point lead according to RCP (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sapelcovits

              That's not tossup for a state that hasn't gone Republican since 1988.

              "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

              by Paleo on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:39:37 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

                And he has a +8.6 margin in Ohio according to RCP. If we all believe that Ohio is going to revert to the mean, then how can we say at the same time that a demographically similar state will not also have a tightening? If both states move 5 points to Romney as the campaign goes forward, then Ohio is +3.6 Obama and PA is only +1. If those aren't both tossups, then I don't know what is.

                22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

                by wwmiv on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:44:15 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I guess this always depends on the definition (0+ / 0-)

                  Everyone seems to have a different one for leans and tossup. Especially problematic when you don't have a likely or favored column.

                  "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

                  by conspiracy on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:47:57 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Because they are not similar (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  thematt523, sapelcovits

                  Ohio went Republican in 2000 and 2004.  Pennsylvania went Democratic both times.  PA reverting to the mean would give Obama a larger lead.  

                  "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

                  by Paleo on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:48:42 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  ... (0+ / 0-)

                    They are similar. Bush almost won the state in 2004, fyi. The two party difference between the states in both elections was about 4%.

                    22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

                    by wwmiv on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:51:57 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  No, it was 7% in 2000 (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      sapelcovits

                      "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

                      by Paleo on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:55:34 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  4% is pretty broad (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      sapelcovits

                      Plus I tend to think the trends are different in the 2 states.  Cleveland metro, the Philadelphia of Ohio, is declining in size and clout while Philly is growing.

                      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                      by rdw72777 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 08:01:23 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                  •  And I think the OH and PA (0+ / 0-)

                    Transformations to Democrats is different too.  

                    Columbus is booming but is much bigger impact to the state's population/economy/politics than where PA is getting their transformation.  Certainly Columbus is pushing Ohio more than State College PA.

                    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                    by rdw72777 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:55:00 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

        •  Argh (3+ / 0-)

          Well I'm more pro-Democratic prospects in PA than anyone else, but keep in mind that Obama is going to pull a 450K vote margin out of Philly.  No matter what anyone says, this is a given. (He won by 480K votes in 2008)

          Obama won the Philly burbs (MontCo/DelCo/ChesCo/BucksCo) by right around 200K votes.  Even if you think Obama loses ground in SEPA (I don't, at least not enough worth noting). If Romney can't win that group (i.e. make up a 200K vote margin) he can't win the state due to lack of votes.

          Where Romney really makes up votes is probably York, Berks, Lehigh, Lancaster.  I could see him making up 100K votes there, easy (Obama was impressive in those areas, but they are swinging back hard red I'd guess).

          As far as SWPA goes, it really doesn't matter.  Obama can't really do much worse in SWPA than he did in 2008, and there are fewer people there so it becomes all the less relevant.  Obama will win Allegheny, maybe not by much, but it doesn't matter.  Obama lost Westmoreland 58%-41%, how much worse can that number really go (and even then, it's only a loss by 30K votes).

          Obama won PA by 620K votes in 2008.  It's just really really impossible to see that becoming a Romney victory.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:40:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Given the narrow fields (0+ / 0-)

        Probably fair. What they've done is put any state open to falling in a landslide in the leans category.

        "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

        by conspiracy on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:38:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  It's actually identical to NBC's map (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwmiv

      Chuck Todd and his crew do great work, and they have the same 227 for Obama.

      Real Clear bases largely on public polling averages, but it comes out largely the same, showing that public polling isn't bad.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 08:24:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Pennsylvania (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IllinoyedR

    So, over on RRH and other political blogs, it seems like people are very confident in Meehan, Dent, Fitzpatrick, Pitts, and Gerlach's chances of winning fairly handily in 2012.

    What is the general DKE reaction to the races in SEPA? Do we have a shot at defeating Gerlach with Trivedi or defeating Pitts (who is way too conservative) in an Obama seat?

    •  No (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GradyDem, rdw72777

      Those are all going to stay Republican. I honestly wouldn't waste the money trying to oust them.

      22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

      by wwmiv on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:25:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Fitzpatrick is the only hope (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GradyDem, KingofSpades, bumiputera, jncca

        Boockvar's fundraising surprised me (to the downside).  But Obama won Bucks by 30K votes in 2008, and Murphy won it by more in PA-08.  With Obama and Murphy at the top of the ballot, Boockvar might get carried to a win over Fitzpatrick, but that's probably the only pickup hope.

        I still think we might have let Barletta off easy by not giving him a bigger race (I don't even know his challenger's name).  He strikes as a candidate that could blow up if he got in a high pressure race.  Where are PA's super-wealthy Dems when we need one to make a crazed run for Congress...sigh.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:30:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  In a few more cycles, Pitts' seat will also become (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          rdw72777, bumiputera, sapelcovits

          truly competitive.

          "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

          by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:33:28 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            In 5 more cycles we'll have new maps...sigh/LOL.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:42:33 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah, and based on new legislative (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              thematt523, sapelcovits, James Allen

              maps, Democrats may have one or both chambers by then.

              For the time being, Pitt's district was wounded and is only going to gradually become less Republican.  Exploit that.  After all, several of the districts drawn in 2001 were probably never expected to go Democratic over the decade.

              "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

              by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:45:43 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  I'm pessimistic (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rdw72777, bumiputera

      Dems didn't get top notch recruits and the PA GOP did a bang-up job shoring these seats up in redistricting.  Pitts's and Dent's challengers' fundraising was so weak I'd say they are Likely R, while all the others are Lean R.

      NY-12 in real life, @BobbyBigWheel on Twitter

      by Bobby Big Wheel on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:31:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  They're close to correct on most except (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rdw72777

      Fitzpatrick.  That race starts lean R, but could easily shift in favor of Democrats as things develop.

      "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

      by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:34:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Interesting (0+ / 0-)

      I remember that there was an almost Tom Perriello-like level of enthusiasm and support for Manan Trivedi on this site's predecessor back in 2010. People seemed quite high on Trivedi's chances and he seemed like a favorite candidate of many on here. I just find it interesting how Trivedi seemed to have been a favorite of many on SSP and many thought he had a great shot at knocking out Gerlach but this time it seems like there's little enthusiasm about him on here (and no one seems to think he'll win). I guess some of that may have stem from the Doug Pike CM's little "visit" to SSP (and some stems from redistricting).

      Who would you guys have preferred to Trivedi as a nominee this cycle, if anyone? Judy Schwank? Also, imagine that Gerlach somehow got a minimally changed seat after redistricting. . . what would you guys think Trivedi's chances would be? This is purely hypothetical but I'm just curious.

      I'm going to be by myself in NYC and then SEPA for a four day weekend and I think it would be fun to attend a campaign event there, but it seems like no Congressman/Congressional candidate is actively campaigning yet. Pat Meehan doesn't even appear to have an office yet (wonder what that says about his internals. . .) It's a shame that I won't be able to catch any events.

      Home: IL-10. College: PA-07 (starting this upcoming fall).

      by IllinoyedR on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:53:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  For those that might miss it upthread (5+ / 0-)

    PPP has Obama national job approval at 46-48, leading Romney 50-44 and Dems up 48-44 on generic ballot.

    http://dailykos.com/...

    Obama 48-47 favorable, Romney 36-51.

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:35:30 AM PDT

  •  Did Okiedem or Redrelic make progress on the (0+ / 0-)

    PA-State Leg. maps since the weekend?

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:40:03 AM PDT

    •  I won't be able to until after my exams (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, sapelcovits

      ie ETA would be about two weeks from now... apologies. If anyone else is interested I would definitely encourage them to give it a go.

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:43:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  On my computer (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        I did fair maps for the state house (if the court rejects the LRC's plan again) but haven't written it up yet.  I could post it tonight or tomorrow if I'm not too busy either night.

        NY-12 in real life, @BobbyBigWheel on Twitter

        by Bobby Big Wheel on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:46:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Sure. But what have you found out from (0+ / 0-)

        the progress you have made up until pausing the mapping?

        "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

        by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:47:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I really only got through SEPA and the Lehigh (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          Valley and found that all seats in the region were 56%+ Obama except the 24th, 10th, 40th and 12th.

          26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:53:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  And that's real good, right? (0+ / 0-)

            "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

            by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:56:47 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think so (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades

              The thing that will really take a while will be comparisons between these districts and the existing ones -- taking into account incumbency effects. I'd also add that the map is in general pretty strong with both NEPA and Allegheny County very efficiently divided for us as well. The only down spot really appears to be Central PA where both State College and Harrisburg could have supported Democratic seat if they'd been pared with more friendly areas.

              26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

              by okiedem on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 08:30:35 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades

                I think when you consider the map had to be somewhat bipartisan to get approved and passed that you take your chances with the eventuality that seats in Eastern PA turn blue and sacrifice Harrisburg/Penn State.  

                Not 100% ideal, but closer than their prior maps.

                Just at first glance, beyond what you found in SEPA/Lehigh, I'd have to think the new 49th is at least a potential takeover candidate.  The district covers about 85-90% of Erie County (including the city of Erie) and Erie County can elect Democrats there.  Come run here, Kathy Dahlkemper.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 08:47:21 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I checked and that district is 60.3% Obama (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen

                  and only a few points lower in Generic Dem performance.  With the incumbent Republican retiring, Democrats have no excuse to not pick that up this year (I assume it's roughly the same on the old Senate maps they're using this year).

                  "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

                  by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 08:51:25 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  If we don't pick it up (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    KingofSpades

                    then well, just throw up our hands in frustration.

                    I'm wondering when the special will be in old SD-40 and if we can pick that up (provided Orie ever resigns).  I know it's a GOP area, but when your Senator is convicted for fraud/forgery maybe it gives Dems an opening we wouldn't otherwise have.

                    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                    by rdw72777 on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 09:11:40 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

  •  OK HD-71 may go before OK Supreme Court (10+ / 0-)

    Likely because this is unprecedented.  For the time being, the Tulsa Elections Board has put off judgement on who won.
    http://www.tulsaworld.com/...

    OK Supreme Court has 9 Justices, 6 of which are Brad Henry nominees.

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:43:20 AM PDT

  •  CT-05 Dem candidate Speaker Donovan has a diary (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gabe Rosenberg, itskevin

    posted in the "DK Elections" tag list.

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 07:52:15 AM PDT

  •  Obama job approval in Florida (10+ / 0-)

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 08:12:42 AM PDT

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