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Leading Off:

WV-Sen: You know what anti-smoking laws are like? They are JUST LIKE HITLER. So says John Raese, the Republican candidate for Senate in West Virginia:

I don't want government telling me what I can do and what I can't do because I'm an American. But in Monongalia County you can't smoke a cigarette, you can't smoke a cigar, you can't do anything. And I oppose that because I believe in everybody's individual freedoms and everybody's individual rights to do what they want to do and I'm a conservative and that's the way that goes.

But in Monongalia County now, I have to put a huge sticker on my buildings to say this is a smoke free environment. This is brought to you by the government of Monongalia County. Okay?

Remember Hitler used to put Star of David on everybody's lapel, remember that? Same thing.

You know, I don't think Hitler did that to everybody, now that I think about it.

Senate:

AR-Sen: Dem Sen. Mark Pryor isn't up for re-election until 2014, and I hadn't even heard rumors that he might not be interested in running again. But apparently they existed, because the Arkansas Times got a hold of a letter Pryor sent to supporters in which he addresses them:

For some reason, there have been several rumors around the state that I will not seek re-election in 2014. I have heard I am running for Governor or that I will take a position with a university. I have even heard that I am going to seminary! Regardless of these rumors, I am planning on running for re-election in 2014.
"Planning on running" is quite a bit less ringing that "I'm definitely running" or even just "I am running." So while we have to take Pryor at his word for now, I'd pencil him in on the margin of your retirement watch list, even though he's only 49.

AZ-Sen: Rep. Jeff Flake's been drawing some fire from his Republican Senate primary rival, self-funder Wil Cardon, for being a "Washington insider." National Journal has some in-depth context on that, though, looking at Flake's lobbying activities before he was in Congress, specifically a this-doesn't-sound-good gig working on behalf of a uranium mine in Namibia with ties to Iran. (David Jarman)

FL-Sen: This is a level of lame almost on a par with getting Marilyn Quayle to lean on Jan Brewer over Arizona redistricting: Former Sen. Connie Mack III just wrote a very whiny, defensive-sounding letter to donors attacking "the left-wing media" and going on and on about how "proud" he is of the race being waged by his son, Rep. Connie Mack IV. My mom thinks I'm the most handsome boy there ever was, too.

IN-Sen: Ugh. I really hope this winds up being a minor blip and doesn't turn into a goal line fumble by Richard Mourdock's campaign. The AP explains:

At issue is a March 14 email obtained by The Associated Press in which Mourdock campaign manager Jim Holden writes that Mourdock staffers should "start pillaging email addresses" from a voter database known as Salesforce, which is used by all Indiana Republicans.

"We have a Salesforce login again. Can one of you guys login immediately and start pillaging email addresses like a Viking raider attacking a monestary full of unarmed monks?" Holden wrote. In the email, he also instructed them to take the information, "download into our house file" and remove duplicate entries.

That's actually a pretty funny email, but Indiana Republican leaders aren't happy and say they're investigating the incident.

MO-Sen: Rasmussen: Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 42 (41), Sarah Steelman (R): 49 (41); Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 43 (43), Todd Akin (R): 48 (50); Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 45 (42), John Brunner (R): 45 (49)

NE-Sen: There's a pretty clear establishment vs. tea party dynamic happening in Nebraska's Republican Senate primary, where state AG Jon Bruning is the fundraising and polling leader, but state Treasurer Don Stenberg has the backing of folks like the Club for Growth. Another heavy-hitting third party group took sides on Thursday, this one on the establishment side, though: the US Chamber of Commerce gave its backing to Bruning. (David Jarman)

TX-Sen: You may recall that Gov. Rick Perry gave a weird semi-endorsement to his right-hand-man, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, in the Republican Texas Senate primary back in January (consistent with the rest of the incoherent things he did that month). Now Perry seems to be a little clearer of mind, though, and he gave a full-throated endorsement to Dewhurst on Wednesday, still seemingly the frontrunner but maybe sweating the challenge from the right from Ted Cruz a bit more lately. (David Jarman)

UT-Sen: The Salt Lake Tribune is out with a new poll, courtesy Mason-Dixon, that tests a hypothetical (and actually impossible) GOP primary for Utah's Senate race. What's interesting is that Sen. Orrin Hatch's numbers among the broader Republican electorate are almost exactly the same as those we've seen from polls of state convention delegates, who are gathering this Saturday to vote on nominees. Hatch takes 62%, while ex-state Sen. Dan Liljenquist is at 20 and state Rep. Chris Herrod is at 7. The reason why this three-way can't happen, though, is because at most, two candidates are permitted to move on from the convention to the primary—and only if no one clears 60% in the delegate vote (something Hatch looks likely to do).

But even if for some reason Hatch falls short and winds up in a primary with Liljenquist, he looks extremely well-positioned to survive (if not kick ass). The only surprising thing is that Hatch is doing as well among delegates, who are generally regarded as being maximally movement-conservative types, as he is among Republicans in general. I think it's a testament to Hatch's strong political skills and hard work over the last year-plus that he finds himself in such a salubrious position. Dick Lugar could have learned a thing or two from ol' Orrin, that's for sure.

WI-Sen: Eric Hovde, the fourth wheel in the Republican Senate primary in Wisconsin, may not be making any impression in the polls yet, but he's at least exciting local TV executives. Somewhat under the radar, he's been the biggest spender in this race (most of which comes from his own wallet, though he's raised $100K from others). He's out with a second ad in just six weeks of actively campaigning (which you can see at the link); the buy is $450K, on top of $400K for his previous ad.

Hovde (a never-before-elected rich guy) is getting some bad press in the local media, though, with stories popping up this week that despite his public opposition to TARP (and his promises that he's never owned a bank that benefited from TARP funds), his private equity firm just finished purchasing a bank (Carrollton Bank, in Maryland) that previously was a TARP recipient. In the bigger picture, though, if you're trying to appear relatable to regular people, does it help matters if you can say you "just bought a bank" a few weeks ago? (David Jarman)

Gubernatorial:

WI-Gov: Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett is out with an internal poll of the Democratic primary (from Garin-Hart-Yang), showing him with a 41-27 lead over his nearest rival, former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk. (Doug La Follette and Kathleen Vinehout are in single digits). That's a pretty similar spread to the 38-24 margin PPP recently found.

House:

CA-02: In the dark blue CA-02, the race now seems to be all about who can come in second in June's top-two primary. Assemblyman Jared Huffman is the undisputed front-runner, and almost no matter what, the person he faces in November will be a fellow Democrat. The question is which one. At a recent candidate forum, two hopefuls—activist Norman Solomon and Marin County Supervisor Susan Adams, both directed their fire at businesswoman Stacey Lawson, which suggests that she might be the one to beat for that coveted second spot.

Solomon chastised Lawson for her very spotty voting record, which even included a failure to cast a ballot in Nov. 2008 (you know, when Obama won). Adams, meanwhile, accused Lawson of mismanagement of a company whose board she chaired, which Adams said "failed to pay investors and creditors millions of dollars before it went under and failed to pay payroll taxes for 15 quarters." (Lawson said the taxes were later paid but acknowledged that some creditors were stiffed when the company went out of business.)

Meanwhile, Lawson is up with an ad, making her the first candidate to do so (not surprising, since she led the fundraising pack in the first quarter of the year). In it, she mentions her humble upbringing but mostly focuses on jobs. You can watch it here or below:

CA-15: You know I'm not one to ordinarily link to single-serving stunty websites, but this one is pretty good: Pete Stark Said What?!, from the campaign of his Democratic primary opponent, Eric Swalwell. It's one of those "refresh and see another quote" sites, but it's entertaining because Stark has said so many outrageous or just dumbfounding things over the years. Fun stuff.

CA-52: This is starting to get a little weird. SurveyUSA is out with yet another poll (again favorables-only) of the congressional race in CA-52, on behalf of KGTV-TV. That makes it their fourth so far, but as you can see if you click through to the individual candidates' trendlines (here's GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray's, for instance), there's been very little change over time—unsurprising, given that this race really has yet to heat up.

IA-03: Presumably in response to news that the DCCC has reserved air time totaling almost $2 million in Iowa's 3rd CD and the adjacent 4th, GOP Rep. Tom Latham is responding with a reservation of his own, for $1.5 million. Given that he's got $2 mil in the bank (versus just $644K for his Democratic opponent, Rep. Leonard Boswell), Latham can actually afford this (though remember that a reservation is not the same thing as an actual buy).

IL-08: GOP Rep. Joe Walsh, notorious for owing his ex-wife six figures in unpaid child support, has finally settled his dispute. Weirdly, as Cameron Joseph points out, Walsh and his former spouse put out a statement that actually uses the phrase "deadbeat dad," saying:

Having resolved these issues together and cleared up these mistakes in private, we now agree that Joe is not and was not a "deadbeat dad" and does not owe child support.
Not only is that a nice bit of revisionist history, but why would you trot out that term when you're trying to put this issue behind you? Very strange.

IL-13: Democrat David Gill is out with an internal poll of the IL-13 general election, where the landscape abruptly changed not long when GOP Rep. Tim Johnson announced his unexpected retirement. Republicans are currently debating replacement candidates (they'll pick one in a few weeks), so Gill tested himself against two possible opponents: former Johnson chief-of-staff Jerry Clarke and Rodney Davis, an aide to GOP Rep. John Shimkus. Gill leads Clarke 40-33 and Davis 41-31, though I suspect Gill has broader name recognition given that he's been publicly campaigning for quite some time while Clarke and Davis are total unknowns. Regardless, it's a long way to 50% for both sides.

Also interesting is that Gill checked in on the presidential race and finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by four points, though he doesn't provide the actual numbers. Obama won here by 11 in 2008, so that may be a cause for concern. Not that I'm worried about Obama losing Illinois, of course, but a rising tide lifts all ships—even if Gill wants to spin the presidential toplines as a positive sign that shows he "earned his lead on his own terms."

NC-08: You'd be forgiven if you had assumed that Larry Kissell was already a Blue Dog: After all, he regularly votes like one. But despite representing Southern turf and having the 12th-worst lifetime Progressive Punch score on crucial votes among Democrats, Kissell was never a member—until now. Given that his seat became much redder in redistricting, this is a way for Kissell to signal his conservaDem bona fides and also, perhaps, to get help from his new fellow Blue Dogs, what few there are left.

Meanwhile, add one more Republican candidate in a red district to the birther heap: Richard Hudson, who's probably the frontrunner in the GOP pack. He recently told a tea party forum: "There’s no question President Obama is hiding something on his citizenship." What's more, he stood by his remarks when pushed by Roll Call, instead of trying to mumble about being misunderstood. Hudson didn't just fall off the turnip truck, either; he's a dread Washington insider!!1!, previously having been chief of staff to Texas Rep. Mike Conaway. (David Jarman)

NY-06: When my colleague David Jarman sent me this link with the blurb "Plant gets out of race" my first thought was "Her?" But no, Jarman was referring to Jeffrey Gottlieb, the Board of Elections employee who was almost certainly recruited into the race by backers of Assemblywoman Grace Meng, in an effort to steal votes away from the other Jewish guy in the Democratic primary, Assemblyman Rory Lancman. But someone managed to dig up some good oppo on him, discovering that he'd been arrested and charged with arson for dousing his apartment with gasoline and setting the place ablaze in 1971. (He pleaded down to a lesser charge.)

These revelations prompted Gottlieb to bail on the race, but utilizing a quirk in New York election law, his campaign committee isn't going away. Rather, Gottlieb's designated another guy with a Jewish-sounding name, attorney Stephen Green, to run in his stead. Green better hope he doesn't have any skeletons in the closet, because I'd be very afraid of any opposition researchers capable of digging up 40-year-old arrests that had remained secret all this time.

NY-27: Some big news: The Conservative Party has decided to back former Erie County Executive Chris Collins instead of Iraq vet David Bellavia. Bellavia seems to be the more doctrinaire of the two, but oddly for the Cons, who rarely seem to prize electability, party chief Mike Long says he believes Collins is the "strongest candidate to take on Kathy Hochul." He also added that there's some lingering unhappiness over the fact that Bellavia campaigned on behalf of crazy Jack Davis—and against Conservative (and Republican) Party nominee Jane Corwin—in the 2011 special election for this seat, won, of course, by Hochul.

PA-17: This is an interesting turn of events in the final days of the Democratic primary in the 17th Congressional District. It sounds like Rep. Tim Holden, up against the ropes, begged for mercy, asking Matt Cartwright for a ceasefire on negative ads, even though he's dished out plenty himself—and Cartwright agreed. While Cartwright formally called on third-party groups supporting him to stand down, he's in the much better position, because his own campaign hasn't run any negative spots and he can't actually tell these outside organizations (like the Campaign for Primary Accountability and the League of Conservation Voters) what to do. If they stay on the airwaves with attack ads, oh well!

Holden, though, had been on his own—until Wednesday, when the Blue Dog PAC Center Forward stepped in with a $100K buy to attack Cartwright. The optics of that move don't seem good for Holden, though, given that he's been trying very hard to run away from his decades-long conservaDem record. (Of course, it's not like anyone will know who's airing the ads. That's just inside baseball.) In any event, I encourage you to check out Keegan Gibson's story on all these last-minute machinations, with links to all the various ads in question (including a dodgy final Holden hit on Cartwright that he just yanked off the air).

Other Races:

PA-AG: Former prosecutor Kathleen Kane is touting an internal poll from Zata|3 showing her with a 42-33 lead over ex-Rep. Patrick Murphy in the Democratic primary, which takes place on Tuesday. Kane's also been airing an ad featuring Bill Clinton's endorsement in the campaign's closing days.

TX-St. Sen: This is great, and it's the kind of thing I'd love to see more of in other states. Katherine Haenschen of the Burnt Orange Report has a complete guide to all of Texas's state Senate races this year, with ratings and background info on all 31 districts.

Grab Bag:

• 1Q Fundraising: In case you hadn't seen it yet, our complete House fundraising chart for the first quarter of 2012 is now available. We have numbers for over 500 candidates, and we've also added a new feature: columns which show how much candidates have loaned or donated to their own races. This lets you see how much every campaign is relying on self-funding.

Netroots Nation: In case you missed it, Steve Singiser and I previewed the horserace Q&A panel we'll be conducting at Netroots Nation in June via webcast yesterday. (Full details on our panel here.) If you're interested, you can check out the link to watch an archived version. We kicked it off with a discussion of the key tossup Senate races, then took a number of good questions from the audience about topics like redistricting in North Carolina and the state of the Wisconsin recall Democratic primary. We may do another one of these before the conference, so we'll let you know if we do!

Polltopia: Sweet! New Mexico prevailed, and PPP will be going in there this weekend (along with Texas). Tom Jensen is soliciting question ideas for his surveys in both states.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Smoking ban (16+ / 0-)

    Yesterday Mayor Greg Ballard signed a comprehensive (i.e. including bars) smoking ban for the city of Indianapolis -- FINALLY!  We've decided to join the late 20th century as msot of the rest of the country has entered the 21st!

  •  French presidential election: Hollande leads (5+ / 0-)

    in 3 new polls:

    A survey by BVA indicated Hollande would get 30% of the votes in the first round, up from 29.5% in a poll carried out earlier this week and published Wednesday, while Sarkozy would garner 26.5%, down from 27.5% previously. Hollande's lead in the latest CSA poll was 28% versus Sarkozy's 25%, a narrower margin than the 29%-24% a week earlier. A third poll, by Harris Interactive, raised Hollande's lead to 27.5% compared with a similar poll last week, while Sarkozy lost 1.5 percentage points to 26.5%. All three companies conducted their latest research Wednesday and Thursday.

    While no candidate has anywhere near the 50% support needed to win outright, Sarkozy needs a strong showing Sunday to build momentum and lift his prospects for a runoff on May 6. Polls in the past three months have consistently indicated Hollande would triumph in the end. The latest BVA and CSA polls give Hollande 57% versus the incumbent's 43% in the second round. Harris Interactive has the Socialist leading 54% against Sarkozy's 46%.

    Sarkozy's chances of swaying opinion for a runoff appear to be limited. Of those polled by Harris Interactive, 90% said they were sure of their second-round vote.

    http://online.wsj.com/...

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 05:06:12 AM PDT

    •  Gotta love countries where the President has to (8+ / 0-)

      garner an actual majority of the vote to become President.

      The 2000 election in the U.S. likely would have looked far different if we had had this kind of system in place.

      "A candle loses nothing by lighting another candle" - Mohammed Nabbous, R.I.P.

      by Lawrence on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 05:16:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  How would we do this? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Lawrence, historys mysteries

        If anything, I would prefer that we leave the electoral college in place (there are particular reasons for this that Cass Sunstein delves wonderfully into in his Designing Democracy), but add the requirement that run-offs be held in any state where a candidate did not secure a majority exactly a week after the initial vote.

        22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

        by wwmiv on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 05:30:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hmm (0+ / 0-)

          That would probably require an amendment, though, because it would not be constitutional on the equal protection grounds.

          22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

          by wwmiv on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 05:31:52 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That wouldn't ensure a candidate would win (0+ / 0-)

            with a majority of the popular vote, though.

          •  There's already a movement (0+ / 0-)

            called the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, where state pass laws promising their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote. This is constitutional since the Constitution gives the states the power to determine how they apportion their electoral votes.

            So far 9 states have passed it, totaling 132 electoral votes. The interstate compact only goes into effect when they reach 270.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

            by HoosierD42 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 11:24:49 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  An instant run-off in all states if nobody (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          stevenaxelrod

          receives a majority of the vote would do the trick.  The electoral college could remain in place.

          It'd be really important to do it with Senatorial and Congressional elections, as well, imo.

          The whole "first past the post" system that we've taken over from the antiquated British system needs to go, imo.

          "A candle loses nothing by lighting another candle" - Mohammed Nabbous, R.I.P.

          by Lawrence on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 06:30:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Hovde (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    walja, gabjoh

    I have been seeing these ads for Hovde.  I don't remember ever reading anything about this guy.  I saw the ads on a cable channel and figured there must have been some kind of programming glich and they were broadcasting the ads in the wrong state.  He never said in the ad that he was running to be Wisconsin's Senator.

  •  Big roads and small cars are also very Hitler. n/t (0+ / 0-)

    But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

    by Rich in PA on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 05:43:10 AM PDT

  •  Big Wi Voter ID story in Wisconsin (10+ / 0-)

    Scott Walker's ploy to have the Voter ID law suppress voter turnout for the recall is now officially a big fail.  Judge Flanagan wisely is giving attorneys plenty of time to work over their cases because of the complexity of the case.  

    link: http://www.journaltimes.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 06:20:23 AM PDT

  •  When MTV and VH1 aired actors smoking (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    historys mysteries

    a couple of years ago, I wrote a diary about it on Daily Kos, and was trounced with comments like "it's a free country."
    I assume youth TV shows continue to let their young viewers know that smoking is an accepted part of their universe.  But don't watch, these days to verify.

  •  Here's The Amazing Stupid Ironic Part (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sethtriggs, KingofSpades, Red Bean

    he could have made that point without the stupid Holocaust analogy and just pointed out that Hilter really hated smoking.

    There’s always free cheddar in a mousetrap, baby

    by bernardpliers on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 06:39:51 AM PDT

    •  You know what else Hitler hated? (4+ / 0-)

      Thunderstorms. We should definitely invest some money in creating a weather machine, just to spite him!

      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 06:41:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I believe this happened (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lurkyloo, askew

        In a year-long saga on General Hospital.  Luckily Luke and Laura were able to save the world from the evil Cassadine's weather machine.

        See the Ice Princess saga section:
        http://en.wikipedia.org/...

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 06:51:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, Yes I Do Know What Hitler Hated (6+ / 0-)

        since you asked...

        Short Guide To Nazi Propaganda Talking Points

           Things The Nazi Were Against:
           Trade unions
           Communists
           "Social justice"
           "Liberals"
           "The liberal press"
           "Socialism"
           "Socialists"
           "Democrats"
           "Social Democrats"
           "Civil Rights"
           Empathy
           Homosexuals
           Pacifists
           Atheists
           Secularists
           Religious tolerance
           Mixed marriages
           Contraception
           Sex education
           Immigrants
           Multiculturalism
           Bilingual anything
           Universal education
           Art that does not glorify the state
           Darwin and teaching evolution
           Elementary teachers who don't teach nationalism
           Any role except motherhood for women
           University professors
           People who don't support the troops
           ...and of course Jews

           Things The Nazi Were For:
           Pre-emptive war
           State religion
           Conspiracy theories
           Undermining voter's faith in elections and parliament
           Reducing history to broad populist themes of white victimization
           Claiming whites are the victims of racist liberals
           A "spiritual" movement that creates ruthless, unwavering violence
           Values education in the schools
           Censorship
           Reducing science education
           College students ratting out professors for lack of loyalty
           Torture
           Abstinence
           Early marriage
           High birth rate
           State control of the media, arts, and science
           Personality cults
           Making nationalism part of the school curriculum
           Appointing businessmen to run schools
           Worship of an idealized version of the past
           Rebellion against "weak" authority
           Blaming minorities and immigrants for everything
           Invoking destiny and being judged by history
           Pandering to Christians
           Promising the cooperation of church and state
           Claiming to do "God's will"

        There’s always free cheddar in a mousetrap, baby

        by bernardpliers on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 06:54:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Hopefully he has the same view about (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bewild

    all drugs.

  •  IN-Sen, what's the issue? (0+ / 0-)

    Besides the obnoxious imagery and the misspelling of monastery, that is.  If Salesforce is a voter database used by all Indiana Republicans, isn't it designed for precisely what Mourdock's campaign is trying to do? Or is there some gentleman's agreement (in which case how could Republicans be included, but that's another question) to only use it against Democrats?  I think Mourdock's bigger problem is that his name looks very villainish.

    But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

    by Rich in PA on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 06:42:26 AM PDT

    •  Well sometimes (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Rich in PA

      This is why you need to click through:

      Jennifer Ping said Mourdock campaign manager Jim Holden likely violated a user agreement with the state party when he shared a logon to the database with an outside vendor.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 08:22:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Rasmussen right/wrong about MO (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    A and the Js Grandma, sethtriggs

    Claire Blanche McCaskill will not win in November, that much Rasmussen's right about in this poll.

    Numbers are all wrong tho, no shock there.  Steelman is in no way 7 points ahead.  McCaskill's a far better campaigner as well and she'll need it because the Repup machine here will pull out all the stops to crush her and there's gonna be a tidal wave of outside money coming in to make that happen.

    And Blanche's support among Democrats, a diminishing species here in Misery, is pretty much confined to the crawl-over-glass kind.  She's pissed off the base for much of the last 5 years and I know plenty who will vote for her, grudgingly, but won't donate time or money to the campaign.

    It's sad really because as craptastic as she is, the only way a second Obama term will mean anything is if he gets control of both Houses for at least 2 years.  If either or both go Repup, he won't get crap done.  And alas, in order to get crap done, we need crappy Dems like Blanche.  Sigh.

    "I'm not writing to make conservatives happy. I want them to hate my opinions. I'm not interested in debating them. I want to stop them." - Steve Gilliard

    by grog on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 06:42:50 AM PDT

    •  Just curious to know (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, R30A, sapelcovits

      Did you get your crystal ball new on Amazon or used on eBay?

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 08:23:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I live here. (0+ / 0-)

        I follow MO politics closely.  All that means is that I can make punditry pronouncements with the best of em using by used pundit's crystal ball.

        McCaskill's only saving grace at the moment is that her two potential opponents are very awful.  That's unusual here since the Repup machine is great at cranking out wingnutty candidates, albeit ones who know how to campaign well.

        Rassie's numbers are wrong, nobody here believes em.  But nobody here believes McCaskill's track record will be enough to prod the dwindling Dem base to vote for her.

        Rural Dems (I live in the second reddest county in the state) voted for her last time around because she campaigned far better than she did two years prior when she ran, and lost, for governor.  She asked for their votes and for the most part, got em.

        Talking with rural Dems (all 9 of us) over the last 5 years, it's clear they expected, rightly or wrongly, for McCaskill to actually have some backbone, not, as Charlie Pierce characterizes her "I Feel Strongly Both Ways."  She, in fact, ran strictly as "I'm Not Jim Talent" and that's pretty much what we've gotten.

        Sure, my experience is anecdotal from simply yammering with my fellow rural Dems out here.  Most are not crawl-over-glass Dems.  They won't vote for Akin or Steelman but they might simply be inclined to send Claire a strong message.

        And she can't win unless she pulls in enough rural Dems.  She tried the old "win heavily in STL and KC" when running for governor and lost--and since then, this state's gotten far redder.

        "I'm not writing to make conservatives happy. I want them to hate my opinions. I'm not interested in debating them. I want to stop them." - Steve Gilliard

        by grog on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:01:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I diaried on this prior to her 06 race: (0+ / 0-)

          http://www.dailykos.com/...

          It's something I should revisit before November.  She hasn't started campaigning in earnest yet although I don't see what she does changing much given that her potential opponent is, ideologically speaking, from the same axlotl tank.

          "I'm not writing to make conservatives happy. I want them to hate my opinions. I'm not interested in debating them. I want to stop them." - Steve Gilliard

          by grog on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:06:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Interesting (0+ / 0-)

          I live in Rhode Island (well kinda) and I can't predict with certainty who will win the RI-01 race. And that's in a constituency of ~525,000 people. (I will, however, go out on a limb and predict that Obama and Whitehouse win...just a hunch)

          22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 02:19:21 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Sad for big tobacco (0+ / 0-)

    Their money and their lobbyists may control our federal government but they'll have a hard time battling city by city.

  •  Why Use "Deadbeat Dead"? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lurkyloo

    ...because they couldn't say "Walsh made his child support payments on time and as ordered by the divorce decree." Plus, "deadbeat dad" takes in much more than not providing materially for your children. It means not caring for them at all, regardless of your cash situation, and not going out of your way  to help them in any manner.

    Most telling, is that the statement that was put out not only recalled the "deadbeat dad" image of Walsh, it reinforced it because everyone knows his wife made the representation based on the cash she was settling for in her lawsuit. I'm sure she would have kissed a stray dog on the crotch for enough money.

    "Force is as pitiless to the man who possesses it, or thinks he does, as it is to its victims; the second it crushes, the first it intoxicates.” Simone Weil

    by chuco35 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 06:49:14 AM PDT

  •  On Government Running the Show (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RMeister, dc1000, lurkyloo

    I am happy to live in a society where the government tells people what to do and not do. Like, not contaminate flour with plaster of Paris to make a little more money when they sell it.  Like, not practice medicine unless they went to medical school.  Like, require certain construction standards of builders so my house doesn't fall down on my head.  Like, insist that the pill I take every morning has exactly the same amount of medication in it as the pill I take every other morning.  Like, check out my supply of drinking water to make sure it's not full of typhoid bacillus.

    Government structures and protects society for the benefit of its people.  Those ranting that government is tyranny are too stupid to notice this.

    Observe that those wanting to tear down the authority of government seem always to be the same folks who want their own personal authority to be absolute.  They want to blow cigar smoke in our faces. They want to hell around a pristine wilderness lake in their noisy motorboats, annoying everyone else.  They want to tear up the snowy woods on their snowmobiles.  They want to deny all kinds of privileges for racial and ethnic minorities. They want to control whether or not women can have a (legal) abortion and even whether couples can obtain (legal) contraceptive devices. They want to decide who can make love with whom.  They want to threaten all of us with their many firearms.

    They just don't want government to interfere with their personal imposition of tyranny.

    •  I definitely agree - (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000

      you should see how I passively-aggressively hold my breath and give dirty glances whenever I walk past the hipsters congregating in front of the library - but I really hope the debates about smoking don't go on for the entirety of this thread.

      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 07:04:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WV-Sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Andrew F Cockburn

    John Raese, methinks thee doth protest too much.

    Based on the consistent behavior of Republican politicians, who rail most loudly against a delusional reflection of what they themselves do, it took no time at all for me to conclude that Raese wants to be Hitler.

    Welcome to the new Republican "moderate" ; vicious psychos.  Supported by died-in-the-wool Republican voters, who will calmly vote for - well, Hitler.

    I am become Man, the destroyer of worlds

    by tle on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 06:54:17 AM PDT

    •  Manchin says he may vote for Romney (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      beauchapeau

      Talk about pandering. He says he has to vote the way his constituents do. If that's the case Scott Brown should vote for Obama. It's not like he is going to lose to Raese.
      Hope this prick just switches parties because he will be the new Lieberman!

      •  Link? (0+ / 0-)

        I was wondering if we'd hear that out of him.  What a phony.

        •  saw something on political wire (0+ / 0-)
        •  Here: (0+ / 0-)

          (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 07:15:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Don't you just love (0+ / 0-)

            Senator Tester.  He may be a Senator but hasn't forgot that sometimes things are easy and can be summed up in a single sentence with levity

            “Overall, considering where the economy was and where it is now and the fact that Osama bin Laden was running around and he took care of that problem, I support him,” Tester said.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 07:20:32 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  If It Was Just Based On The Coal Issue..... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tle

            ....I could perhaps accept his position.  What's going on with mountaintop removal and safety issues amongst coal barons is unconscionable, but it is the state's livelihood so it's understandable that they'd be nervous....but Manchin has a host of phony grievances, which seem opportunistic for the holding of the seat rather than principled opposition.

            Never thought I'd read an article today where another Democratic Senator would make Mark Pryor seems respectable two days removed from his vote on behalf of the Walton heirs.

            •  Yeah, and what makes it more ridiculous (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Mark27

              is that Manchin's Republican opponent is a total joke, especially now.  Let's go to Kentucky for a second: Gov. Beshear was up for re-election against an almost as detestable Republican opponent, and he endorsed Obama for re-election a mere month before KY's state officer election day without hedging.

              "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

              by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 07:40:33 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  I've said before that if the Republicans take over (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sethtriggs

        he'll switch parties.

        "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

        by Paleo on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 07:18:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  LOL (0+ / 0-)

          That'd be funny.  I have no idea what use they'd have with him.  I think he'd vote their way most of the time (even moreso than now) but publicly vacillate about a lot of things for no apparent reason.

          I do hope he stays Dem though, if for no other reason than I don't like the idea of West Virginians getting comfortable voting R for Senate any time soon, even though its inevitable.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 07:23:02 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I Doubt It..... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          I think he's straddling the fence in an election year.  He's struck me as a guy who is instinctively to the left of where he positions himself.  It reeks of political opportunism but if he's less of a douche after the election, I can live with it....and I think there's a 50-50 chance he will be.

  •  PA-AG (0+ / 0-)

    Wow, kind of surprising that Kane is ahead.  I guess TV ads are all that you need.  

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 06:56:20 AM PDT

    •  See Delaney, John (nt) (0+ / 0-)

      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 07:05:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  PA is muuuuuch bigger than MD-06 (0+ / 0-)

        And she's actually spending less than Delaney most likely.  That's a much better return on investment, and surprising to me.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 07:15:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  A Bill Clinton endorsement (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits

      would make me LESS likely to vote for a candidate.

      •  Not me (0+ / 0-)

        But I guess I'm just surprised that it's working.  To me endorsements aren't a huge factor (mainly because my political beliefs usually mean that endorsements usually come from people I like and dislike on the Dme side).

        I was actually thinking Murphy was running away with this.  Sure Kane is on the air a lot, but Murphy just seems to have so many other advantages.  I really wish Murphy did an odd where he talked directly into the camera about his ideas for the job, would have been a dynamite ad.

        Regardless of who wins it will still be interesting to see how this race breaks down geographically.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 08:25:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I guess Murphy (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          stevenaxelrod

          is well known here for his DADT repeal success, than among the PA electorate at large.

          •  Well that was always the case (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            stevenaxelrod

            I just thought the SEPA geographical advantage for Murphy, plus union support, would have him running away.  I haven't seen much of a Kane campaign in Philly outside TV ads but maybe its there and I've missed it.

            Almost makes me want to canvass on Tuesday for Murphy.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 11:32:10 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Republicans LOVE to be victims (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, LordMike

    The only two central tenants of Republican ideology that remain a constant are:

    (1) fear

    (2) I'm a victim

    It's the political philosophy of the toddler who hasn't had his nap because he was too freaked out by the belief there is a monster hiding under his bed.

    Some people are intolerant, and I CAN'T STAND people like that. -- Tom Lehrer

    by TheCrank on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 07:03:22 AM PDT

  •  I wonder how he'd react (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Red Bean, JeremiahTheMessiah, askew

    If a family of holocaust victims walked up to him and showed him the real deal and ask him if, looking as that symbol of genocide, he'd like to repeat that statement.

    I remember being shown the star worn by the holder's father in occupied Holland and it certainly made an impression on me.

    "... the best of us did not return." Viktor Frankl

    by RMeister on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 07:05:08 AM PDT

  •  I can't believe Obama farted! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, LordMike

    You know who ELSE farted?!
    HITLER!  same thing...

    ...I love these hitler comparisons...like the 'you know who else was a great speaker - Hitler'.   Yeah, that may be true but I don't think the reason Hitler is universally hated is due to his speaking ability.  I think it had more to do with the Jew killing and the trying to take over the world and only allow the arian race to exist thing....
    When obama starts killing 6 million jews, then get back to me.  
    Oh, and we can play this game too...you know who else hated the gays?  Hitler!  

  •  "Pete Stark Said What?!" (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, stevenaxelrod

    What else did Pete Stark say? He said:

    "Mitt Romney was for forcing mothers into the workforce before he decided that 'all moms are working moms,'" Stark told The Huffington Post. "I think we should take Mr. Romney at his most recent word and change our federal laws to recognize the importance and legitimacy of raising young children. That's why I'm introducing the WORK Act to provide low-income parents the option of staying home to raise young children without fear of being pushed into poverty."
    for the record

    "Show up. Pay attention. Tell the truth. And don't be attached to the results." -- Angeles Arrien

    by Sybil Liberty on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 07:08:52 AM PDT

    •  My question about Swalwell (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sybil Liberty

      is... who is he? What has he done, and what does he stand for? Is he a conservative Democrat, a lackey of the rich and powerful? God knows we have a Republican party for that kind of politician. Or is he a progressive, a suitable successor to Stark? Stark's behavior toward Swalwell was discourteous, but were his instincts about him right?

      •  good question, "who is he?" (0+ / 0-)

        I don't have the answer, but I'm nowhere near ready to see Pete Stark crucified in the blogosphere for the sake of amusement; not after all those years of standing for his constituents.

        "Show up. Pay attention. Tell the truth. And don't be attached to the results." -- Angeles Arrien

        by Sybil Liberty on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:50:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  no idea (0+ / 0-)

        but his issues page sounds pretty progressive.

        I'd encourage you to check it out for yourself.

        19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

        by jncca on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 02:31:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Walsh, IL-08 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, David Nir

    Maybe he's not getting the best advice...

    we now agree that Joe is not and was not a "deadbeat dad" and does not owe child support.
    We old-timers are all too likely to remember a similar pronouncement from Richard Milhouse Nixon:
    I am not a crook.
    You know, if you have to say it...

    A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

    by Christopher Walker on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 07:23:09 AM PDT

  •  Raese-rhetorical genius /snark (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Andrew F Cockburn

    ignorance fallacy and Godwin's Law in one sentence!

    Now back under the bridge you go---oh, in Florida where you really live even though you are running for office in West-by God-Virginia! And take Manchin with you so they can find a real Democrat!

    whew-rant over-

    Warning: That light at the end of the tunnel just might be an oncoming train.

    by history first on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 07:39:01 AM PDT

  •  Ras OH Senate: Brown by 3 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, askew

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 07:40:02 AM PDT

  •  WV-Sen: Raese digs in his heel. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, askew, Andrew F Cockburn

    http://sundaygazettemail.com/...

    Raese told the Gazette Thursday that he stands by the comments, saying, "I don't see anything that's incorrect in any of the statements I made. It's all very factual."

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 07:54:14 AM PDT

  •  Make Smoking a Felony.... (0+ / 0-)

    .. and hunt this guy down.   Make him hide his addiction.  Make him fear for his freedom.  Make tobacco growing a felony too, and spray agent orange on North Carolina.  

         Bust down his door in the middle of the night.  Shoot his dogs.  Handcuff the whole family while his home is searched for the illegal substance....

        Haul him off to jail.  Make him a felon.  Deny him the right to vote.....

    Oh, wait, thats something else.  Was confused.  Sorry.

  •  But shoving things in women's vaginas is OK..!?!? (0+ / 0-)

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