For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. This series is both highly theoretical and very unlikely to ever occur.
Pennsylvania is a state that has voted in Democratic 9 out of the last 13 presidential elections. However, it also has a tradition since the 50s where if gives each party two terms in the Governorship and then switches, like clockwork. And as such, the last two times there was a census, Republicans controlled the redistricting process. The last time, it was a dummymander that backfired on the Republicans. Let's hope they're wrong again. Sigh.
Anyway, here's my take.
Link to the adopted plan.
Previous Doubling Diaries: TX, WA, MT, NY, AZ, CO, KS, AL, GA, TN, IL, MD, WV, DC, New England, NE, MO, NC, MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID
Pennsylvania
The Keystone State gets 36 districts, exactly double the 18 it will have after the 2010 Census.
The Dem/Rep average is of "All 2004-2008 statewide races", so presumably it includes:
- President 2004
- President 2008
- Senate 2004
- Senate 2006
- Governor 2006
- Attorney General 2004
- Attorney General 2008
- Auditor 2004
- Auditor 2008
- Treasurer 2004
- Treasurer 2008
A mixed bag of electoral results, but I believe they provide a decent baseline for federal elections in Pennsylvania.
SEPA
1
VAP: 36.4 White, 50.2 Black, 7 Asian
82.1 Obama, 81.6 Dem
Open; majority black. Southern Philadelphia and into the African-American-heavy cities of Chester and Eddystone in DelCo. Safe D, black pickup
2
VAP: 35.4 W, 50 B, 8.3 A
91.7 Obama, 89.9 Dem
Bob Brady (D-Overbrook, Philadelphia) lives here; majority black. Philadelphia with a tiny foray into Upper Darby in DelCo. Brady, the redistricting backstabber, already has a plurality black seat, and he's the boss of the Philly Democratic Party, so I have a hard time believing he's vulnerable to a primary challenge, but maybe he wants to run for Philly mayor again someday. Safe D, black pickup if open
3
VAP: 32.4 W, 50.2 B, 11.2 Hispanic
90.2 Obama, 89.1 Dem
Chaka Fattah (D-East Falls, Philadelphia), lives here; majority black. Philadelphia. Not much else to say about the less-visible Philly congressman. Safe D, black hold
4
VAP: 34.2 W, 30.3 B, 25.7 H, 7.8 A
80.2 Obama, 79.4 Dem
Open; racial clusterfuck, plurality white. Philadelphia and part of Cheltenham in MontCo. The demographics of a Democratic primary would probably be heavily black and Hispanic, so one of them would likely end up being the Congressman for this district. The edge would be for African-Americans. Safe D, minority pickup
5
VAP: 68.5 W, 18.8 B, 5.1 H, 6.1 A
64.6 Obama, 66.1 Dem
Allyson Schwartz (D-Jenkintown) lives here. Philadelphia and MontCo, plus a small slice of Bucks. Schwartz, who was almost primary challenged from the left this year, is given an even safer district than her current one. Schwartz is a budget hawk and a member of the New Democrat Coalition, not the Progressive Caucus, so I have a feeling that she may prefer the slightly redder pastures of the 7th, where she already represents the majority of the territory, since it's either that or change her stripes to avoid getting primaried every cycle. Safe D no matter what happens.
6
VAP: 79.8 W, 8.3 B, 6 A
62.7 Obama, 59.7 Dem
Open. MontCo and part of Philadelpia, based in Norristown. This takes in parts of the gerrymandered-within-an-inch-of-its-life Montgomery County, with parts of the 6th (Gerlach) 7th (Meehan) and 13th (Schwartz). No Republican in Pennsylvania represents a district above 58% Obama, even after 2010, so I feel safe rating this Likely D
7
VAP: 82.4 W, 6.8 B, 6.7 A
57.1 Obama, 52 Dem
Open. MontCo. As I posited above, Allyson Schwartz may want to run here instead of the bluer 5th, since it could possibly be treacherous for her NDC lifestyle in a Democratic primary. Slightly less blue than her current district, that might even work out. The ancestrally Republican nature of MontCo would make it a tough win for Team Blue without her.
Safe D with Schwartz
Swing otherwise
8
VAP: 87.7 W
55.7 Obama, 54.9 Dem
Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) lives here. Lower Bucks County. This gets a couple points bluer than his current district, so he could be in slightly more danger than he is now. Swing
9
VAP: 74.1 W, 17.5 H
60.2 Obama, 56.9 Dem
Charlie Dent (R-Allentown) lives here. Bucks County and up to Allentown and Bethlehem. Dent, who is a survivor in his current district at 56% Obama, just got a 4-point kick in the head. If Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan wanted to try again, he'd have the upper hand. Lean D
10
VAP: 83.2 W, 5.7 B, 7.4 H
55.6 Obama, 53.4 Dem
Open. Bucks County and crawls up the eastern border, taking in Evergreen Park in Lehigh County, Easton in Northampton and Stroudsburg in Monroe. This goes from the swingy-but-ancestrally-Republican areas in SEPA up to the swingy-but-ancestrally-Democratic areas up in NEPA. So I'm not positive how to call this, I'll just say Swing
12
VAP: 87.5 W
55.3 Obama, 52 Dem
Open. Delaware and Chester Counties. Jim Gerlach, whose home was drawn into the hopelessly Republican 14th, would probably rather run here and continue to frustrate Democratic strategists.
Likely R with Gerlach
Lean R if open
13
VAP: 82.4 W, 7.7 B, 5.8 H
55.6 Obama, 51.8 Dem
Joe Pitts (R-Kennett Square) lives here. A Delaware/Chester Democratic gerrymander. Pitts, who had a tantrum over redistricting after Obama took a surprising 48% in his current district, would have a conniption over this one. So he'd probably parachute to the 14th. Chester and Delaware Counties are both moving our way, so this will be a prime pickup opportunity in the future. Swing for now.
East
11
VAP: 68.9 W, 6.4 B, 21.2 H
60.1 Obama, 54.5 Dem
Open. Reading and Lancaster. Safe D
14
VAP: 92.4 W
43.7 Obama, 39.3 Dem
Jim Gerlach (R-West Pikeland) lives here. Chester and Lancaster Counties, will small forays into Berks and Delaware Counties. Gerlach is a survivor in Dem-leaning districts, and Pitts is freaked out by Dem-leaning districts, so I think they'd switch, or Gerlach runs in the 12th. Safe R
15
VAP: 91.4 W
40.6 Obama, 34.8 Dem
Open. Lebanon and Lancaster Counties, based in Lebanon. Safe R
16
VAP: 91.6 W
62 Obama, 61.7 Dem
Open. Scranton and Wilkes Barre. Matt Cartwright, who just unseated Tim Holden in the primary in the real map, would have run here instead, and would have won the general in a walk, but I doubt he would have had much traction when every area Democrat would be tripping over themselves to run here. Safe D
17
VAP: 87.9 W, 6.4 H
48 Obama, 46.4 Dem
Lou Barletta (R-Hazelton) lives here. Literally the area surrounding Scranton and Wilkes Barre. Barletta is not the strongest incumbent, but assuming he can survive a primary, he'd be fine in a general election. Safe R
18
VAP: 93.2 W
48.3 Obama, 44.8 Dem
Open. SEPA between Allentown and Reading. Safe R
19
VAP: 79.4 W, 12.2 B
51.7 Obama, 47.9 Dem
Tim Holden (D-St. Clair) lives here. Harrisburg and the Schuylkill Valley. Holden currently represents the vast majority of this district, and it cuts out some of the worst Republican areas. Safe D with Holden
20
VAP: 92.8 W
47.3 Obama, 47.4 Dem
Open. Miscellany. Safe R
21
VAP: 95.9 W
39.7 Obama, 37.7 Dem
Tom Marino (R-Lycoming) live here. NEPA going into central. Freshman Marino gets absurdly safe. Safe R
23
VAP: 94.5 W
39 Obama, 38.1 Dem
Glenn Thompson (R-Howard Township) lives here. Miscellaneous central PA. Thompson, one of the poster children for "anonymous backbencher", may want to run in the neighboring 24th just because he already represents most of it and is less vulnerable in the primary. Safe R regardless.
25
VAP: 87.3 W, 5.4 B
44.1 Obama, 40 Dem
Open; Todd Russell Platts (R-York) is retiring. York County. Not much else to say, but the next Rep will be much less of a team player than Platts was. Safe R
26
VAP: 92.4 W
39.9 Obama, 36.3 Dem
Open. Suburban Harrisburg. Safe R
27
VAP: 93.2 W
35.4 Obama, 34.6 Dem
Open. Southern Central. This is mostly Bill Shuster's territory, but his home was drawn into the 28th. He could run here, he could run in his home district. It wouldn't matter much. Safe R
West
22
VAP: 90.2 W
53.7 Obama, 55.4 Dem
Mark Critz (D-Johnstown) lives here. West Central PA, based in State College and the evil liberal homosexual cabal that is Johnstown. Due to the addition of two college towns plus the labor-friendly Johnstown plus an incumbent Congressman, this is Safe D
24
VAP: 96.9 W
41 Obama, 42 Dem
Open. Northwest Central PA. As I mentioned above, Glenn Thompson may want to run here, where much of his current territory is, rather than his home district, to better avoid a primary. Safe R
28
VAP: 97.2 W
34.9 Obama, 39.1 Dem
Bill Shuster (R-Hollidaysburg) lives here. Southwest Central, heading into the Pittsburgh area. As mentioned above, Shuster can run here or the 27th, doesn't matter a whole lot. Safe R
29
VAP: 90.6 W, 5.2 B
56.4 Obama, 52.3 Dem
Open. Erie and Crawford Counties, based in Erie. If Kathy Dahlkemper wanted to run again, she'd probably have an edge here. Other than that, there are plenty of Erie-based Democrats who'd like this district. Likely D
30
VAP: 92.6 W, 5.2 B
49.3 Obama (Obama win by 95), 53.4 Dem
Open. New Castle and Beaver County. Despite his home of McCandless being drawn into the new 36th, I think Jason Altmire would run here, since he counts Beaver County as his base and already represents most of this district. Since his current district is only 44% Obama, even as a backstabbing Blue Dog I think Altmire would appreciate being a little safer. Safe D with Altmire
31
VAP: 90.8 W, 6.9 B
53.9 Obama, 60.9 Dem
Open. Southwestern PA. The other half of Mark Critz' current PA-12, this contains union-heavy SWPA and heads into the Pittsburgh area. There are plenty of Dem state legislators that would be itching to run here, like State Senators Tim Solobay or Rich Kasunic. Likely D
36
VAP: 95.6 W
38.6 Obama, 41.3 Dem
Mike Kelly (R-Butler) and Jason Altmire (D-McCandless) both live here. Butler, Allegheny and Westmoreland Counties. As I said above, Altmire most likely runs in the 30th rather than here. Kelly would like this district though. Safe R
Pittsburgh
32
VAP: 76.2 W, 16.2 B
67.8 Obama, 70.2 Dem
Open. Pittsburgh. Mike Doyle, the Pittsburgh Rep., was just barely drawn out of this district, but he would run here. He takes a tiny hit in Obama performance, but nothing to be worried about. Safe D
33
VAP: 89.4 W, 6.7 B
53.5 Obama, 56.8 Dem
Open. Beaver and Washington Counties, with a very ugly arm around Pittsburgh that I'm oh so proud of. Again, just looking at State Senators, Wayne Fontana of Pittsburgh would probably like a crack at this seat. Likely D
34
VAP: 86.4 W, 10.9 B
49.9 Obama, 54.3 Dem
Open. Westmoreland County and another arm into Pittsburgh. Obama won this district by a little over 1500 votes, and in Western PA that ain't nothing, so I feel confident calling this Lean D
35
VAP: 90.9 W, 5 B
46.6 Obama, 49.7 Dem
Tim Murphy (R-Upper St. Clair) lives here. Outer Allegheny County with miscellany Beaver and Westmoreland Counties. Murphy's current district is 44% O, so he doesn't make out all that bad. Likely R
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So, with two Republican gerrymanders in a row, we have a 7-12 delegation, whittled down to 6-12 after this census. In my 36-district map however, drawn by me (have we met?), we get a 18-15-3 map, assuming Schwartz runs in the 7th instead of the 5th, which for this diary series we will. This includes at least one new black Congressman to join Mr. Fattah, and with the possibility for one more, and a second if Bob Brady retires.
The House as a whole now stands at 378-276-58.
As always, please let me know what you think. And if you could throw some recommends my way I'd appreciate that too. ;)
Next up: California