Howdy folks,
A picture is worth 1000 words, so here is a Electoral College Map showing the likely 2012 Presidential Election results if the election were held today.
MAP:
About the map...
The map is a cartograph showing the states with there respective number of EC votes as equally sized squares. This cartograph is unusual because it is topologically accurate, showing all the state borders and connections to other states correctly.
Obama has states worth 263 EC votes (blue), and Romney had states worth 169 (red) more-or less locked up.
Seven states are polling close enough that they could go either way right now. This seven states are not colored on the map.
Two states, PA and WI, are showing enough weakness in support for Obama (in early polling) that Romney might spend some money there.
Three states, Montana, Georgia and Arizona, are showing enough weakness in support for Romney that the Obama could conceivably make a play for them, but Montana is not worth going after for just 3 EC votes, and with all the other redish states in play, it's unlikely that Obama will make a serious try for Georgia. Since Arizona is a bit harder to predict (since it's numbers from the election 4 years ago are not applicable to this election), Obama might put some money there to see how hard it will be to move the polling numbers in his direction.
The darkest blue states are states where there is currently marriage equality or there is a good chance that there will be by the end of the year (either through judicial, legislative, or referenda action).
The darkest of the red states are states where Republican support runs above 15%.
Nebraska's 2nd congressional district is shown seperately from the rest of Nebraska. That one EC vote went for Obama in the last election and is probably within a point or two of doing so again. No-one polls that district seperately and there are few scenerios in which it's one EC vote could effect the outcome of the election.
The list of polling data for the seven "toss-up" states is generated by me by averaging several composite polling sources, like Real Clear Politics, Electoral Vote, Pollster, 538, Talking Points Memo, etc. and is updated weekly.
My methodology was extremely accurate in the last two elections, and because I use polling date from both left leaning and right leaning pollsters, my numbers are generally more accurate and less volitile than most other polling sources that I've seen.
If any statistic geeks want to go into my methodology, I'd be happy to.
I hope to post this updated map weekly until the election.