Okay. So as we all know now, the last PPP poll in Wisconsin has Scott Walker leading Tom Barrett by three little points. Other polls have Walker leading by anywhere from 1 point to 7 points. That is fine.
UPDATED
Why is this fine? Well, let's take a peek at the final pre-election polls from 2010 when Walker and Barrett faced off against one another:
PPP: Walker +9 (Walker defeats Barrett 52%-43%)
Marist: Walker +7 (Walker defeats Barrett 51%-44%)
Rasmussen: Walker +10 (Walker defeats Barrett 52%-42%)
So these three final pre-election polls had Walker crusing to a relatively easy victory. Except that the final result was actually Walker 52%, Barrett 47%, which is closer than the pollsters had it. http://uselectionatlas.org/...
In fact, the crosstabs for the final PPP poll were:
Rep 34%
Dem 30%
Ind 36%
Also, Obama's approval among "likely voters" was 37% with 54% disapproving.
On election day in 2010, according to the exit poll, the actual numbers were as follows:
Dem 37%
Rep 36%
Ind 28%
(the numbers don't add up to 100% due to rounding)
And Obama's approval rating among actual voters was 46/53.
So obviously all the pollsters missed the strength of Democrats and undercounted them significantly in their pre-election polls.
UPDATE Here are the crosstabsfor the current PPP poll:
Rep 34%
Dem 32%
Ind 34%
It seems like maybe PPP is oversampling Republicans and Independents. It certainly was that way in their final Wisconsin pre-election poll in 2010.
In any case, this time around, PPP shows Barrett winning Democrats 88% to 11%, losing Republicans 7% to 91% and winning Independents 48% to 46%. If, for instance, the actual proportions of Dems/Reps/Inds mirrored those from election day in 2010 (37%Dem/36%Rep/27%Ind), then here is what the numbers would look like: Barrett 48.04% Walker 49.25%, which is a very small difference. We need more Democratic turnout! And if, for instance, the undecided independents break for Tom Barrett, he could absolutely be victorious.
And btw, PPP's analysis that if the propotions of Dems, Reps, and Inds were the same here as they were in 2008, that Barrett would win by a single point, is actually inaccurate. By using the proportions from 2008 - 39% Dem/33% Rep/28% Ind - we get Barrett 50%, Walker 47%, not Barrett 50%, Walker 49%.
http://www.cnn.com/...
So my point is WE CAN DO THIS. Knock on doors. Phone bank. The Republicans are running scared in Wisconsin! I know this because I saw this on facebook earlier tonight: https://www.facebook.com/...
The Republicans must know they are neck and neck and that the Democrats have a real chance at ousting Scott Walker. Let's help oust him!