The Euro, the Eurozone and the European Union are in trouble.
This thing, they say, could blow apart in a matter of weeks, the collapse triggered by a Greek election here, a Spanish bank failure there. Who knows?
But things are definitely looking dire.
The Euro, it is said, was a flawed concept. I don't know. But its success seemed predicated on things that to date did not come to pass: a closer political union, a shared fiscal policy, a transfer mechanism from rich states to poor states, etc.
Perhaps a crisis was needed to precipitate these changes.
Maybe that crisis is here now.
Whatever.
I've come to believe, having read dozens of articles in the last week printing statements of world leaders on the fate of the Euro, the Eurozone and the European Union, that ...
This house of cards will not be allowed to collapse.
The UK, the US, Europe and a few other parties are going to step in and steady the ship. The elites will not risk it all to preserve the economic prudery of the German voter, or for the desire for Northern Europe to punish the South, or any of the other sentimental drives that are behind the current programme of mistake after mistake after mistake.
Timothy Geither has talked to European leaders. Obama has talked to Cameron. It will all be taken care of. Let's don't worry.
But there are two great questions to answer before the rescue can begin:
1. It will come at great cost and someone will have to pay. Who will pay?
2. Governments must not introduce moral hazard into the equation. Something went wrong. It won't be made right until someone suffers. Who will suffer?
Fortunately for the elites, there are two easy answers to these questions.
Who will pay? Not the bankers, but the workers.
Who will suffer? Not the gamblers, but the prudent.
When the dust clears and the crisis has "gone," we'll all find ourselves a little poorer, living life a little closer to the edge, living life a little shorter. The rich will be richer and their political power will have grown.
The game won't be changed.
After all, why should it be? There was a problem. Someone was punished. We moved on.
Until the next crisis hits ... and we get a little poorer again.