The NHC gives this area of low pressure a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.
An area of low pressure is sitting in the Yucatan Channel this afternoon producing a large area of clouds and heavy rain over parts of the southern Gulf of Mexico. As the low pressure area moves towards the north, conditions are gradually becoming more favorable for it to attain tropical characteristics and possibly turn into a tropical storm or hurricane later this weekend.
The 12z NAM run's 250 millibar jet stream forecast at 36 hours, or around 7/8AM Sunday morning.
The jet stream is expected to stay pretty far north of the Gulf region, and with no ridges of high pressure expected to act as a shield, this system will have free range of the entire Gulf Coast if/when it gets its act together. Wind shear across the area is generally light -- 5 to 15 knots -- so the development of deep thunderstorms shouldn't be too much a problem.
The only inhibiting factor I see for this system would be lukewarm sea surface temperatures (shown above) over parts of the northeastern Gulf. The green area over the northeastern Gulf indicates temperatures around 75-77 degrees Fahrenheit. As Yamaneko2 pointed out in the comments below, the temperatures are actually about 80-82 degrees in the NE Gulf. I made the mistake of not double-checking my numbers before posting them (I thought 26 C equaled 75 F). Whoops. Generally, the warmer the sea surface temperatures, the warmer the air temperatures will be, which will provide fuel for the storms to feed off of. Moisture isn't much of a problem either, as water vapor imagery (image below) shows a pretty moist mid-level throughout the whole region.
The forecast models are a bit divergent on what the system will do as it moves deeper into the Gulf. The 12z run of the GFS model shows it meandering in the central Gulf without developing much, then racing out into the Atlantic and up towards coastal Canada. The 12z NAM model shows the system moving northwestward through the Gulf towards the Texas coast without strengthening much. The other big, reliable hurricane models (HWRF and GFDL) haven't been initialized on this system yet, so they're useless right now.
So for now, we have a low pressure system that might develop into a tropical cyclone and may hit anyone from Texas to Florida. Pretty cut and dry, no? Either way, it's going to produce a TON of rain over parts of the southern Gulf and southern Florida. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) has a bullseye of just over 15 inches of rain falling out in the Gulf of Mexico over the next 5 days. Parts of Florida can expect upwards of 3-5+ inches of rain as the system skirts the area.
I'll post another diary with an update on the system if it strengthens further and we get an idea as to where it will hit. In the meantime, you can "like" me on Facebook for weather updates sent straight to your feed.
12:20 PM PT: PS: If this system develops, it will be named "Debby." And, on another side note, hurricanes are not "he" or "she." They are referred to as objects ("it") so we don't personify them any further than giving them a name to keep track of them.