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Leading Off:

IL-12: It took a month, but Democrats finally have their man: To little surprise, they unanimously picked retired Maj. Gen. Bill Enyart, who recently stepped down as commander of the Illinois National Guard. Ten candidates had applied to serve as replacements for Brad Harriman, who unexpectedly dropped out in May due to health reasons, but only seven showed up on Saturday for interviews with the selection committee. Aside from Enyart, the most notable names were state Rep. John Bradley and ex-Rep. David Phelps. Others included Anne Keeley, an unsuccessful judicial candidate in this year's primaries, architect Rob Anderson, Some Dude Jeremy Lincicum (who claims to already be running as an independent), and Army reservist Edward Vowell. In any event, Enyart will face Republican Jason Plummer in November.

Senate:

AZ-Sen: Rep. Trent Franks, who finally endorsed businessman Wil Cardon after dancing around the notion for some time, has now fully inserted himself into the GOP primary. He's cut an ad for Cardon in which he goes after the Club for Growth, which is trying to prop up Rep. Jeff Flake via attacks on Cardon's conservative bona fides. Franks says the Club's ads are "absolutely false" and promises that Cardon is a "conservative Reagan Republican."

MO-Sen: Businessman John Brunner claims to have a big lead in the GOP primary, according to his new internal poll from American Viewpoint. Brunner is at a nice round 40, doubling up both Rep. Todd Akin and former Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who are at 20 apiece. The primary is August 7.

MT-Sen: I'm not going to keep a whip count of every elected official who says they won't attend their party's national convention this summer—I'm just not. But I do wonder if the traditional media will go nuts over Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg's refusal to go to Tampa the same they went berserk when a handful of Democrats said they wouldn't be making an appearance in Charlotte. Oh, wait, no: I don't wonder at all.

OH-Sen: The DSCC has made a $2.3 million reservation of ad time in three Ohio markets—Cleveland, Dayton, and Youngstown—for the final five weeks of the election. Maggie Haberman notes that this doesn't include Columbus (you can see a market map here), though it likely will in the future, as an unnamed "source familiar with the DSCC's plans says that the buy is not finished, and more is expected."

UT-Sen, UT-04: A new Dan Jones poll of Utah shows Orrin Hatch, unsurprisingly, with a big lead over Dan Liljenquist in Tuesday's GOP Senate primary. More surprisingly, it also shows incumbent Dem Jim Matheson with a solid lead over Mia Love in the dark-red 4th. Click through for our full analysis and all the numbers, including those for several other Utah races. (David Jarman)

WA-Sen, WA-Gov: Biden Alert! The VPOTUS will visit Seattle next month to keynote a fundraiser for Dem Sen. Maria Cantwell. Gubernatorial candidate Jay Inslee will also be there, and it seems he's an indirect beneficiary as well, since proceeds will be split between Cantwell's campaign and the state Democratic party. Interestingly, the cost to attend the event is surprisingly modest, given the high level of the headline name: Tickets start at just $50. Obviously that's still a considerable expense for many people, but it's a lot more accessible than your typical high-dollar Vice Presidential fundraiser.

WY-Sen: Democrats have landed an actual candidate to run in the Wyoming Senate race: Albany County Commissioner Tim Chesnut.

Gubernatorial:

NH-Gov: Rasmussen Reports: Jackie Cilley (D): 39, Ovide Lamontagne (R): 41; Jackie Cilley (D): 39, Kevin Smith (R): 37; Maggie Hassan (D): 36, Ovide Lamontagne (R): 42; Maggie Hassan (D): 36, Kevin Smith (R): 39.

House:

CA-07: GOP Rep. Dan Lungren is showing some serious rust... which is quite remarkable, considering he endured a stiff challenge from physician Ami Bera last cycle and faces a rematch this year. Last week, you'll recall that Lungren made the absurd decision to defend a fraudulent voter registration drive undertaken on his behalf. Now his campaign is flailing, telling a local television station: "The campaign was not involved." So which is it, Congressman? Note: This is a great object lesson in how not to handle a scandal on the campaign trail.

CT-05: Despite a major setback involving the arrest of his finance director on charges of fundraising fraud late last month, state House Speaker Chris Donovan continues to rack up major labor endorsements—a very healthy sign for his campaign. Over the weekend, the SEIU State Council, which represents over 65,000 members in Connecticut, gave Donovan their backing. Earlier in the week, another big union, the 35,000-member AFSCME Council 4, also endorsed him.

Donovan's campaign also previously hired a former U.S. Attorney, Stan Twardy, to conduct what they're calling an independent investigation of the alleged campaign finance fraud. Twardy says he expects to complete his findings this week and will turn them over to the campaign and the current U.S. Attorney responsible for the case. A Donovan spokesman says that the results will only be made public if the U.S. Attorney permits it.

FL-16: I'm not sure there's anything new in this report from CNN's Anderson Cooper on Vern Buchanan's serious ethical failings, but it's now the second time in less than two months that the national press has given serious exposure to the story. (The New York Times did so back in May.) One thing CNN did score was an interview with Sam Kazran, Buchanan's former business partner and one of his chief accusers. Click the link for the full details.

MI-01: House Majority PAC, the Democratic-aligned super PAC, is touting a new poll of Michigan's 1st Congressional District that shows a very tight race. The survey, from Garin-Hart-Yang, has GOP freshman Dan Benishek at just 40, while Democrat Gary McDowell is at 38. Those numbers, though, are actually better for Benishek than the last time HMP polled here—but that was a while ago (all the way back in January), and they were using a different pollster (PPP). In the prior poll, McDowell (who also ran here in 2010, losing by about 10 points) led Benishek 46-41. Still, 40% is not where an incumbent really wants to be.

MI-11: Somehow, Paulist tea partying teacher/veteran/reindeer farmer Kerry Bentivolio has come up with enough scratch ($10K, says Shira Toeplitz) to air a television ad boosting his candidacy. It's mostly just filled with platitudes about the "American dream" and also touts his military service. Bentivolio is the only Republican on the August primary ballot, though the local GOP establishment is trying to rally around ex-state Sen. Nancy Cassis's write-in campaign.

MI-13: After successfully appealing a ruling that she hadn't submitted enough valid signatures, state Rep. Shanelle Jackson is back on the ballot in the Democratic primary. She's challenging veteran Rep. John Conyers, as are state Sens. Glenn Anderson and Bert Johnson, and Wayne-Westland school board member John Goci. Jackson hasn't even filed a single FEC report, though, so it's hard to imagine her presence making much difference.

MN-08: Democrat Tarryl Clark is out with her second ad, which features steelworkers from northeastern Minnesota's Iron Range praising her for "fight[ing] for Minnesota families." Clark herself twice utters the phrase "our Minnesota," which may be a new emerging theme/slogan for her campaign.

NY-08: A local group called the Sephardic Community Federation made a late expenditure targeting Charles Barron in Tuesday's Democratic primary. They spent $1,000 to run this ad in several Jewish newspapers, calling Barron an "anti-Semite," and another $14K on this mailer which declares: "Charles Barron hates you but loves hate-mongers and dictators." In the same vein, the right-wing Emergency Committee for Israel is supposedly airing an ad that features a string of Barron's greatest hits, but I'm skeptical as to whether it's on the air. It's a minute long, the production values suck (ultra-lengthy pauses to show title cards between clips), and the group hasn't filed an independent expenditure report. Plus, TV in New York is insanely expensive.

NY-18: Interesting: Former GOP Gov. George Pataki's new super PAC, "Tipping Point," is tarring attorney Sean Maloney with robocalls, just ahead of Tuesday's Democratic primary. (The message attacks Maloney for his role in the Troopergate scandal back when he was an aide to ex-Gov. Eliot Spitzer.) So why would Republicans be interfering here? I can only imagine that it's because they fear Maloney most in the general election.

Meanwhile, Maloney, who's been the target of negative mailers from his chief primary rival, physician Rich Becker, has fired back with one of his own. The flyer criticizes Becker for donating to Republican ex-Rep. Sue Kelly, who represented the predecessor to this seat (the old NY-19) until she lost to Democrat John Hall in 2006. Becker has previously called the contribution "a mistake."

RI-01: I'm reminded of Monty Python's seminal Election Night Special sketch, where a reporter informs Kevin Philips Bong (Slightly Silly Party): "You polled no votes at all. Not a sausage." Self-described "conservative Democrat" Anthony Gemma also came up sausage-less at Rhode Island's state Democratic convention over the weekend. Will Collette tells us (with emphasis in the original):

When it came time for nominations, one delegate, who said she grew up as a friend of Gemma's back in the day, stood to put his name in nomination. When Party Chair Ed Pachecho asked, not once but three times, if any delegate would second the nomination, not one delegate among the 200+ would do so.
The nomination, of course, went unanimously to incumbent Rep. David Cicilline. Anthony Gemma may have better luck seeking the nomination from the Very Silly Party.

SC-07: It's no surprise that Gov. Nikki Haley would take sides against ex-LG André Bauer—after all, they ran against one another in the 2010 GOP gubernatorial primary. But why did she wait until the last minute to endorse Horry County Council Chairman Tom Rice in Tuesday's runoff? That one I can't figure, especially since Haley took the somewhat unusual step (for someone in her position) of not just fluffing Rice but actually attacking Bauer, accusing him of "undercut[ting] the conservative agenda."

WA-01: Fail:

In a roundtable debate on KING 5's "Up Front,'' which aired Sunday, Republican congressional candidate John Koster responded to a question about gay marriage like this: "There is no Federal Defense of Marriage Act that I know of. Gays and lesbians have a right to live as they choose. They don't have a right to redefine marriage for all of us."
Here's how Koster tried to recover when later called on his blunder:
"Of course I know there's DOMA," he said. He said he'd intended to say that with the Obama Administration's decision to not defend the law, the issue was left to the states.
Also: If gays and lesbians "have a right to live as they choose" (according to Koster), does that include the right to get married? For Koster, the answer is no: He says that same-sex marriage would "undermine the very cornerstone of our society."

Other Races:

CA Prop 29: California's Proposition 29, a ballot measure that would have added a $1-a-pack tax to cigarettes, has narrowly failed. It trails by some 28K votes with only about 110K left to count. Supporters, who spent $12 million on the effort, say it's "the closest ballot initiative in California history," and note that big tobacco companies (principally Philip Morris) spent $47 million to defeat it.

WA-AG: Could Washington Dems pick up the two statewide offices that have long eluded them (AG and SoS) at the same time as losing the governor's chair for the first time in decades? Certainly a possibility:  Elway's poll from last week (which showed a big turnaround for Jay Inslee in the gubernatorial race, although he's still narrowly down) also finds Dem Bob Ferguson leading GOPer Reagan Dunn 28-26 in the Attorney General race, though with 42% undecided, that's not too conclusive. (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

Colorado: PPP's Colorado remainders are very... remainder-y.

Redistricting Roundup:

NY Redistricting: The amazing folks over at CUNY's Center for Urban Research (led by Prof. Steven Romalewski) have upgraded their interactive map of New York's new congressional districts to include ethnic breakdowns for each seat. CUNY includes not only the Census count for every district but also figures on the citizen voting-age population (or "CVAP"), an important measure that tells you who is actually eligible to vote. These numbers often vary considerably from a strict head-count, in large part because the Hispanic population tends to be younger and contain fewer citizens than other ethnic groups. You can mouse over each district to see the stats, and you can also find them summarized in table form here.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Morning (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Avenginggecko, askew, itskevin

    Obama 48-45 in a nation 53-47 male. I'll take that.

    http://dailykos.com/...

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 05:04:53 AM PDT

    •  53% men? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Only a 6 point gender gap?  I'll put this poll in the recycling bin.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 05:08:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  If Obama wins the men vote (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      buffie

      It's all over for Willard and we are looking at a big reelection number.

      •  According to this (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ehstronghold

        He does better with men than women. Awful numbers with Hispanics also. Don't trust these crosstabs.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 05:17:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, but this poll has him losing women by only 4 (0+ / 0-)

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 05:24:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  2 (0+ / 0-)

          Women 48-46   
          Men    48-44

          Nonsense. Doesn't mean the topline isn't right though.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 05:26:28 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The topline seems very credible (0+ / 0-)

            considering what other polls we have seen lately.

            So another non-tracker national poll without a Romney lead.

            •  Bang on the +3 average (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 05:36:42 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I'm very nervous for the PPP polls. (0+ / 0-)

              In Oregon, in particular. I guess it's possible to have a big and sudden but ultimately temporary drop with Independents in a state like that, but what explains it? And will he really win by less than 20 in Massachusetts?

              I know I shouldn't be all that bothered by some troubling results, but I can't help it. I guess if he's still leading in Oregon, Massachusetts, and especially Ohio, it's not that big of a deal...right?

              Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

              by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:15:18 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  As always (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                itskevin

                Follow the money.

                "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                by conspiracy on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:20:54 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Of course... (0+ / 0-)

                  But how often do these states get polled by the campaigns?

                  Also, are there any outside groups spending in a state like Oregon?

                  Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                  by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:32:57 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  They poll almost everywhere (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    itskevin

                    Some places more than others. I don't recall any spending in Oregon at all.

                    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                    by conspiracy on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:38:34 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

              •  I don't want to be tied in Ohio (0+ / 0-)

                so I will live with a 16 point lead in MA or 5 point lead in OR, I don't expect either one of those to be the final spread in either state and 16 points in Romney's "home state" is fine nonetheless.

                But I want to see Ohio showing up on the electoral projection sites as a dem state. The others will anyway.

                •  I just don't see it (0+ / 0-)

                  being that close in Oregon (or Washington) or Massachusetts unless it's very close nationwide.

                  Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                  by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:33:41 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  If it ends up close in OR, WA, MA (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    savvyspy

                    It won't be close nationwide.

                    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                    by conspiracy on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:39:33 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  That doesn't mean we won't get some polls (0+ / 0-)

                    showing it that close during the campaign. Oregon especially is likely to produce some seemingly too-close polls because of the same phenomenon that consistently undercounts dem support in western states. This has been showing up in Washington, Nevada, Hawaii and even California. Resistance by Asian woman to respond to phone surveys is often cited as a cause for this, and I expect the same thing applies to other ethnic groups as well in these states.

                •  Ohio was a tossup going into election day in 2008 (0+ / 0-)

                  wasn't it? If I remember, Obama was up only a couple points in the poll averages and ended up winning the state by 4 points -- and that was in a big Democratic year.

                  It's far from a gimme that Ohio will be blue this time around. The fact Obama's doing as well as he is there now is a good sign.

                  "Democrats have the heart to care."

                  by jeepdad on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:52:52 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Bad overall samples should happen 5% of the time (0+ / 0-)

                Bad subsamples would happen significantly more frequently.

                "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                by tietack on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:28:48 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  True. I can't help but think that some of the (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Odysseus

                  crosstabs we are seeing are nonsense. He might not get 96 percent of the black vote, but there's just no way Obama's getting less than 80 percent. I usually trust the top lines, but when I see a result like that, I can't help but be skeptical.

                  Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                  by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:35:11 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Did I Miss Some Spooky Tweets About Those Polls? (0+ / 0-)
  •  Don't underestimate Jeremy Lincicum (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits

    He's got the straight-laced charm of Jeremy Lin and the bad-boy allure of Tim Lincicum!

    Romney '12: Bully for America!

    by Rich in PA on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 05:05:05 AM PDT

  •  Alabama immigration law on the rocks: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CF of Aus, Amber6541

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 05:34:29 AM PDT

  •  Obama airs 3 Bain ads (5+ / 0-)

    to air in Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia.  Each ad is tailored for the state.
    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 05:49:01 AM PDT

  •  Reminder to NY'ers to get out to the polls (7+ / 0-)

    to vote today in the primaries.

    Turnout is expected to be low - the confusing number of primaries we have scheduled plays a big part in that .

    There was the GOP presidential primary  on April 24, the Congressional primary today and the upcoming state primary on Sept. 11.

    "If you're in a coalition and you're comfortable, you know it's not a broad enough coalition" Bernice Johnson Reagon

    by Denise Oliver Velez on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 05:55:55 AM PDT

  •  MI-11 - my typo (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541

    This might only amuse me but it is one of the funniest typos I have had in a while.  I keep my own spreadsheet for Congressional elections.  While entering candidates for MI-11 I misread the report and list Wayne Westland as running for this seat (rather than John Goci).  But after reading the above memo on MI-11 Wayne Westland is a geographical location in the district not a person! LOLOLOLOL

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:01:07 AM PDT

  •  WSJ: Four Game Changing States for Romney (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, askew, itskevin

    The WSJ says that if Romney could win Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania, it would significantly change the electoral calculus for Obama's side. I guess I agree, but I am not sure why we need to worry, especially about Minnesota. The column is oddly short on anything specific.

    Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

    by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:21:13 AM PDT

  •  NE-Sen: Warren Buffett to fundraise for Bob Kerrey (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, Amber6541, askew, itskevin

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:21:43 AM PDT

    •  Will he campaign for him? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, stevenaxelrod, R30A

      I get the hurdles Kerrey faces, and I don't want resources taken away from Kaine or Heitkamp to go to him, but it's still early. It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to try a few things to see if anything gains traction.

      Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

      by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:36:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  He has enough money so he can afford to waste (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag

      some.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:40:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  start a superpac and buy the election (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        buffie, jncca

        if it works for Republicans, why not? 100 million dollars in Nebraska should so the trick. lol

        •  I've wondered why Buffet doesn't do this. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Odysseus, ArkDem14

          Buffet could give Kerrey, say, $10-15 million, at which point Kerrey can stop accepting other donations and perhaps even return the ones he has already accepted. The argument could be that he needed the money, but unlike so many on the other side, he's willing to be upfront about his contributors, or in this case, sole contributor.

          It might all be worthless in the end, but it wouldn't exactly drain Buffett's bank account.

          Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

          by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:13:42 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Like most Americans (0+ / 0-)

            Buffett is opposed to Super PACs, so he refuses to give to them. Which I respect, but it's unfortunate that we can't level the playing field.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

            by HoosierD42 on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 04:51:44 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  NBC/WSJ national poll out at 6:30 tonight (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Davidsfr, askew, itskevin

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:32:00 AM PDT

  •  Top 10 ad markets this week (9+ / 0-)
    1. Colorado Springs, CO – Team Obama 1550, Team Romney 1535
    2. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA – Team Romney 1515, Team Obama 1400
    3. Cincinnati, OH – Team Obama 1500, Team Romney 1230
    4. Richmond-Petersburg, VA – Team Obama 1700, Team Romney 1015
    5. Denver, CO – Team Obama 1640; Team Romney 1000
    6. Norfolk, VA – Team Obama 1600, Team Romney 970
    7. Ft. Myers, FL – Team Obama 1300, Team Romney 1115
    8. Cleveland, OH – Team Obama 1615, Team Romney 925
    9. Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL – Team Obama 1675, Team Romney 705
    10. Reno, NV – Team Obama 1500, Team Romney 800

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:37:53 AM PDT

    •  Colorado Springs? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera

      Is this the Obama campaign trying to manage the margins in a deeply conservative area?

      Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

      by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:42:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  NC markets have (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, askew, itskevin

      faded into Bolivian, as Mike Tyson would say.  There were once at least three NC markets on this list.  Des Moines also off the list.  FL and CO moving up in the world.

      •  Unfortunate. "Follow the money" suggests (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv, Mark27, bumiputera

        that Mitt is now leading in NC private polling on both sides. If we see it again next week, I'd say NC becomes lean R.

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:03:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Charlotte is #11 (6+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Davidsfr, tietack, Mark27, askew, itskevin, ArkDem14

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:07:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  How do you figure? (0+ / 0-)

          Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

          by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:15:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  No, you're very wrong about that (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, ArkDem14

          "Follow the money" works only as the broadest measure, to distinguish states where a lot of money is being spent from states where it isn't.

          Following a Top 10 list like this and drawing conclusions from it is a major mistake.  If you know real well what each campaign's specific metrics are for deciding ad buys, then you can draw conclusions, but no one commenting on DKE knows that.  (There are people on DKE who might know, but they are tight-lipped and would never comment on it.)

          A modest decline in one state and increase in another can mean a lot of different things.

          And, these top 10 lists don't actually tell us what state totals are, and nothing about state totals can be reasonably concluded based on the list.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:40:51 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Right... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, tietack

            And I actually think it would be a mistake for Team Obama to go hardest after North Carolina. It makes so much more sense for them to prioritize OH, VA, CO, and NV (plus IA and maybe 1-2 others), as they seem to be doing here. That isn't to say I don't think they should make a play for NC, just that it shouldn't be where they concentrate most of the spending.

            Why go all out on a state you don't really need? (Other than to pad your margins or make the other side sweat.)

            •  I think they're going all-out in NC (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14, askew, tietack

              They're going all-out in all 9 states getting lots of ads the past couple months.

              There's no reason for the campaign to "rank" them in "importance."  They're all tied for first, and OFA commits to doing whatever it takes to win all 9.

              That NC might fall away before others is a political reality they'll accept if it proves true.

              But it's not even slightly relevant to campaign strategy.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 11:00:08 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  As you can see downthread (0+ / 0-)

            I had already changed my take on the ad buys, in essence suggesting some lab experiments on what works this cycle.

            To take it one step further, such controlled experiments in advertising can't be measured -- unless you at least avoid introducing anything new -- which means accepting a slowdown in current existing ads.

            "I hope; therefore, I can live."
            For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

            by tietack on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:32:09 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Obama team (0+ / 0-)

        Feeling like they've lost North Carolina this time around already? That's too bad. :(

        22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM2 (Raised), TX20 (B.A. and M.A.in Pol. Sci.), TX17 (Live); Taste my skittles? Intern w/ Pete Gallego for Congress.

        by wwmiv on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:04:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Both campaigns continue to spend (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack, bumiputera, askew, itskevin

          Just not as much as elsewhere. It was never a likely tipping point state anyway.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:06:07 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I was just going to say the same thing. (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack, bumiputera, askew, itskevin

            Just means that NC markets are no longer in the top 10.  Doesn't mean there is no spending.  The last ad I saw from a Romney SuperPAC went up in NC.  If you follow the money, there is still reason to believe NC is more competitive than, say, MI, WI, or OR.

          •  You guys are waaaaaay overreading this (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Marcus Graly, itskevin

            Please, everyone take a step back, you can't conclude anything about private polling from these changes in advertising expenditures.

            As I commented above, "follow the money" works only to distinguish states with significant ad buys from states with little or none.

            Watching ad buys slide a little in NC and increase elsewhere doesn't tell us anything about private polling in NC or elsewhere.  A lot of different things can be happening to drive these decisions that have nothing to do with polling.

            Even worse, this top 10 list doesn't total statewide ad buys in any states.  It just ranks individual media markets.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:45:26 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Can we also believe (0+ / 0-)

              that at this point, devoting resources to the ground game matters the most?

              Now that I think about it, I seem to recall a lot of worrying in 2008 that Obama wasn't meeting McCain ad-for-ad during the summer, which in the end proved to be a silly concern.

              Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

              by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:48:12 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  No, ads matter more. But... (0+ / 0-)

                ...we don't know anything about ad buy totals in the battlegrounds.  The NBC top 10 list doesn't provide that info, or anything remotely close to it.  People here are trying to glean more from the top 10 list than is remotely reasonable.

                And even if NC is seeing fewer ads for now, that tells us nothing about OFA's take on the state's competitiveness.

                It's JUNE.  The 9 states picked for heavy advertising are the 9 states they stick with for the long haul.  Slight polling movement doesn't change that.  If anything, they might add some states to the mix, but they're not subtracting any of these 9 unless they either find themselves running out of money (won't happen) or poll numbers have sunk into Indiana territory (won't happen for awhiile if ever).

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 11:03:16 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Well, they are airing ads in Indiana to this day, (0+ / 0-)

                  so...

                  Still, points taken.

                  Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                  by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 02:26:00 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  And they're running ads in California (0+ / 0-)

                    Someone on DKE reported seeing Obama ads on MSNBC in California.

                    So there appear to be some national ads, presumably all cable buys that I have to think are inexpensive.

                    But Indiana clearly is not a target, for now.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:58:18 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

        •  Don't think so (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin

          Could just be part of a normal rotation.  And it's not as high a priority as other states.

          “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

          by Paleo on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:09:10 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I don't get it. Why are so many down (0+ / 0-)

          on his chances in NC based on this week's spending alone?

          Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

          by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:16:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not just this week but last week too (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack

            NC went from three to one to zero in the top 10.  Clearly becoming a lower priority, though not a lost cause.

          •  Because that is what too many dems do (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew

            it really is unbelievable. If you look at all the house seats the repubs won in 2010 you would see a lot where they were behind by double digits in September. They didn't win by giving up on those seats.

            Now Charlotte falls of the top ten media market list to number 11 and the polls show Romney a couple of points ahead there and suddenly NC is hopeless! That's not a winning mentality.

            •  The good news for Obama is that (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin

              as far as I can see, the campaigns are still fighting for the same 9 states as they have been all along: OH, FL, CO, VA, IA, NV, NH, NC, and PA.  Will be more worrisome if Romney starts to expand the map.  I've seen no evidence of that.  

              It's probably going to be a competitive race, and Romney is probably going to pick off at least one or two of these states.  NC is logically first in line.  We've seen a slight but perceptible shift towards Romney there in the polls, and now we've seen a gradual shift towards the parties spending slightly less money in the major media markets in NC.  So that one state seems to be slowly coming together for Romney, although it is by all indications still competitive.  In the end, though, he will have to win at least four more of the nine states, and I don't envy that task at all.

      •  The Tampa spending disparity suggests (0+ / 0-)

        An attempt to capitalize on the immigration move.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:04:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, Odysseus, itskevin

          and anyone who wins Florida has to win Tampa. The area is the most swingy in the state.

          22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM2 (Raised), TX20 (B.A. and M.A.in Pol. Sci.), TX17 (Live); Taste my skittles? Intern w/ Pete Gallego for Congress.

          by wwmiv on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:06:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  No it doesn't (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv

          With all due respect, that's not a good assumption.

          A better take is that central Florida is the most important swing region of the state no matter what is happening in the news, and spending heavily there always matters and always helps.

          If they're taking advantage of immigration, then that will show up in the form of immigration ads.  But OFA already has been running Hispanic-targeted immigration ads for quite awhile, including heavily in Florida, so even that wouldn't be anything new.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:47:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  And what does this mean? (0+ / 0-)

        Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

        by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:15:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It means (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack

          NC is moving towards being a lower priority than it was two weeks ago, at least for the time being.

          •  Because...why? (0+ / 0-)

            Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

            by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:29:36 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Because if it were becoming more important (0+ / 0-)

              the advertising in its major cities would be increasing, not decreasing.

              •  Do you think it's a reflection (0+ / 0-)

                of sharp movement in any one direction, or something else?

                Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:37:12 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  No I don't think anything is moving sharply. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  itskevin

                  I think resources are shifting around slowly.  There has not been a sharp change in anything.  As I mention above, the parties are still duking it out in the same 9 states.  It appears that states like CO and FL are slowly moving up in the world and NC slowly moving down, at least temporarily.  Nothing drastic or worrisome.

          •  Possibly trying some of the different strategies (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Odysseus, itskevin

            about 8 (guess) different major paths to 270 would lead to a rotation of emphasis. It's early enough to advertise, poll, assess, and then retarget if/as needed.

            "I hope; therefore, I can live."
            For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

            by tietack on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:37:54 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Good point. (0+ / 0-)

              I guess I should just keep telling myself that it is way too early for them to be writing off a state like North Carolina and in fact, a state like that will be fought over until the polls close on election day.

              Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

              by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:44:28 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  No, it doesn't (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin

            It means the particular local markets seeing lower ad spending are a temporary lower advertising priority.

            It doesn't mean the state is a lower priority.

            And it doesn't mean the campaign's private polling shows a slide there.

            That doesn't mean there's not a slide, either.

            But you can't glean it from short-run changes in June ad buys.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:48:56 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The public polling (0+ / 0-)

              shows a small but perceptible slide there.  I've made no assumptions about private polling.  NC has gone from 3 cities in the top 10 to 1 to 0 in the past few weeks.  I think it's fair to say it is being given somewhat less priority, at least in the short run.  I haven't said anything beyond that.

              •  First Read (0+ / 0-)

                used to publish all ad spending by state, but hasn't been doing it for the past few weeks.  That would be better data from which to draw these conclusions, but Chuck Todd took it away from me.

              •  Nope, that's not a fair take to say... (0+ / 0-)

                ...OFA is giving it less priority.

                That top 10 list doesn't tell you statewide ad buy numbers, nor does it tell us what OFA thinks in shifting resources.

                This is really misguided by a lot of people here, trying to read big things from small tea leaves.  And these aren't even complete tea leaves, they're ripped and torn tea leaves!

                It's not valid to draw conclusions about OFA's relative priorities based on what local media markets are in a weekly top 10 list.

                More realistically, all 9 states getting lots of ads these past couple months are tied for first in priority for the long haul.  It's June, the states OFA picked were picked carefully for the long game.  That's how OFA has always demonstrated it thinks:  for the long game.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 11:07:45 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  But they're not (0+ / 0-)

                  tied for first.  Some are getting more attention than others.  I haven't seen the state by state numbers in a few weeks, but NC always had the eighth most spending per EV, which means seven other states are getting more attention.

                  •  Who says "spending per EV" is OFA's metric? (0+ / 0-)

                    Whose metric is that?  If it's not OFA's metric, then it doesn't matter except as a rough gauge for junkies like us, not as a tool to guess what OFA is thinking.

                    Understand, the cost of statewide ad spending varies wildly accordingly to population density, the number of markets in a state, and so much more.

                    And different messaging works in different places at different times.  And different states have slightly different strategies for getting to 50%.

                    Again, you're trying to take a few bits of information and pretend we can discern more than we really can.

                    All 9 states are top priorities.  OFA badlly wants them all.  They don't need them all, and they know that, too.

                    But they're not reducing their attention to any of these states in June.  If they have to cut bait in some places, they decide that much later, probably not until around the convention.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 12:05:59 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  No-one said that. (0+ / 0-)

                      It's my metric and it's the best I've got without being on Obama's campaign team.  

                      My sense is that you may be attributing to me the words of others.  I don't think he's giving up on NC or anything close to that.  But by my admittedly crude metric, NC has been getting less advertising attention than seven other states all along, as it should being a state that gets Obama to 347 EV's.  Then I see public polls shift slightly towards Romney in NC.  Then I see that, after weeks of NC being a focal point of the top 10 advertising markets, no NC market is anywhere to be found in the top 10.

                      You suggest that I should make nothing of this, but I do make something of it.  I don't really make a whole lot of it, but I make something of it.

    •  I see this as mostly positive (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      EcosseNJ, itskevin, ArkDem14

      Look at the markets:

      VA: Romney is spending here but its an obvious firewall state for Obama. They are spending big to defend it. Romney's spending doesn't suggest they see an opening more that they are just trying to hang on and key it close for now.

      NV: The fact that Reno is the #1 market tells you Obama's camp is getting close to locking up the state. If they win or come very close up there then Vegas will carry them.

      CO: Pretty even but CO seem to be a key state in Obama's prefered strategy

      Overall if you believe MI, PA, and WI are locked up, and I do, I think they are banking on NV, CO, and VA as being the key firewall states. I think they are confident in holding IA and NH but they will campaign in both.

      The math still looks good for the Pres at this point.

  •  Did you say the Very Silly Party? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541

    "There is a difference between being wealthy and being out of touch. One is remembering where you came from. The other is not knowing where others came from." - BoiseBlue

    by ScottyUrb on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:43:17 AM PDT

  •  yawn (0+ / 0-)

    Stonewall Dems endorse a bunch of candidates, mostly people who are either already nominated or face no serious primary opposition. They also misidentified Jerry Nadler as NY-08 rather than NY-10. Predictably, in the two races with a contested Dem primary (WI-02 and MI-03), they endorsed the openly gay candidate. http://www.metroweekly.com/...

    Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:53:05 AM PDT

  •  IL-12 Thank goodness we have a candidate! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson

    Plummer is a child of fortune who spouts all the republican talking points like a pro.  Ick.

    I hope  Bill Enyart is a good candidate!

    Was a cold and dark December when the banks became cathedrals...

    by althea in il on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:59:41 AM PDT

  •  CA Prop 29 (0+ / 0-)

    It's a shame that lost.  I thought California was a liberal state.  Maybe the "new bureaucracy" republican line of attack worked.  Maybe the proposition would have passed if the money raised was spent on the existing budget shortfalls instead of something new.  But still I don't understand why anyone who doesn't smoke would vote against cigarette taxes.  The best kind of tax is a tax someone else pays.

    •  That's the power of $47 million (0+ / 0-)

      and low turnout.

      Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:20:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Your Last Sentence Sums Up..... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus

      ....how cynical and unserious the tax proposal was for the magnitude of California's problems.  It was voters' way of saying "get back to us when you come up with something real".

      •  yes, voters clearly just rolled their eyes (0+ / 0-)

        at the proposal - hence why the proposal just barely failed among a conservative-leaning electorate (and even then was up by a large margin prior to Big Tobacco's $47 million spending spree).

        Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:31:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's California..... (0+ / 0-)

          ....therefore by definition not a conservative-leaning electorate.  A couple of years ago, a similar tax was felled in "conservative-leaning" Oregon by a 60-40 margin.  Bottom line:  voters support this at a gut level, but when it's spelled out to them how cynical, gutless, and gimmicky it is, they back away.  Pretty sure that 50.3% of California voters (including a majority in Los Angeles County) are not brainwashed by the tobacco companies.  Similar trajectory to personhood amendments when those are presented to voters.....popular until there's a public hearing on them when voters rapidly sour on them.

          •  err (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera

            your first sentence doesn't make a lot of sense. Are you really going to disagree with the CW which says that the primary electorate was to the right of the broader (i.e. general) electorate? I would be really interested to see you argue that one.

            I don't think I ever used the term "brainwash," but if you have another explanation why the dissipation of the "yes" side's 20-point lead and the $47 million in tobacco industry money were unrelated, I'd also be really interested to hear that.

            Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

            by sapelcovits on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:52:42 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  In California..... (0+ / 0-)

              ....even a conservative-leaning electorate in a statewide election is still not really conservative.  The outcome may have been different in a general election, but I wouldn't count on that either.  There were a lot of Kossacks who lived in California and voted against it.  Supporters didn't appear to make a very compelling case.  Also a tobacco tax hike proposal failed 51-49 on the general election ballot in California back in 2008.

              I can't think of an example where a tobacco tax hike was put in front of voters and passed.  It's failed twice on the ballot in Missouri and was felled 60-40 in Oregon just two years ago.  There may be examples I'm not aware of but the general trend seems to be that when they get a public hearing, voters reject them as cynical gimmicks.

              •  well, it may not be conservative by (0+ / 0-)

                national standards, but it is conservative by California standards, which is what I was getting at.

                Lots of Kossacks may have voted against it, but with millions of votes cast, I think the same caveat that usually applies to anecdotes is also relevant here. After all, the battle lines were the usual here - Bay Area for, SoCal/Central Valley against - more similar to something like, say, Prop 8 rather than 2010's Prop 16 where the map got scrambled a bit.

                Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                by sapelcovits on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:04:36 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  Have you ever lived in California? (0+ / 0-)

            The politics of initiatives is completely different than normal electoral politics.

            29, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

            by Marcus Graly on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:05:08 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Super-Pac Redux; Incompetence at Dem Convention (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingTag, TNIndependent

    This Dem convention has turned into an unmitigated fiasco.  

    First Dems, under Obama's direction, refuse to accept corporate donations for the Dem convention committee.  That results in a shortfall of nearly $26M.  That's right - a $26,000,000 shortfall.  The convention is shortened and events are cancelled to reduce costs... not kidding here.  Then the Dem convention committee reverses course and forms another fundraising committee which can accept corporate donations.  Yet, it's too late.  Dems have already alienated many of the progressive/moderate corporations which wanted to participate.  Furthermore, unions refuse to participate because many of the local hotels selected by the Dem convention committee are non-union.  

    Does all this sound familiar?  It should.  This is exactly how Obama's decision with respect to Super-Pacs played out - initial refusal to support Super-Pac, only to relent and change course when it's too late.

    I will do everything I can to support Obama and I agree with almost all of his policy directives.  His leadership/decisions on Super-Pacs and the Convention has been horrible.  Simply horrible.

    Trust-Fund Kids of America Unite... save the Bush tax cuts!

    by JCPOK on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:24:20 AM PDT

    •  Where is all the occupy Wall-Street money?? (0+ / 0-)

      Oh right, they don't have any to donate - they just want Dems to fight with both hands tied behind their backs.  OWS was a disaster for the Dem Party.  Dems bit on a fad that quickly ran out of steam and delivered nothing and screwed themselves in the process and makes it much more likely that Romney will be able to buy the election.  

      •  I disagree completely (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        geoneb, Chachy, fearlessfred14

        OWS was actually very helpful in turning the nation's attention to income inequality last year. It turned the nation away from the phony "Tea Bag Party" revolt of 2010.

        It also highlighted all the things wrong with Mr. Corporate Raider Romney. It was a disaster for Romney.

        Just because OWS didn't bring unicorns and rainbows to the land doesn't make it a failure.

        It was a smashing success, actually.

  •  NY 8... the new crafted district that moved alot (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541

    of heretofore progressive voters out of NADLERS district is an ugly primary race.  

    I am still kind of in shock that I will no longer be represented by Nadler...  and can't see how this new district can ever be successfully represented by anyone (sigh)  BUT the thought that Charles Barone could become my new congressional rep is very distasteful (to me) and what is even MORE distasteful is that a Republican may well win this newly created district in the general election.

    so now I am sitting here waiting for Hubby to get back from work so we can go vote together... we have always voted together, it is a family tradition.. in fact the only time we didnt vote together was when Hubby decided to vote on his way into work in manhattan...  it was the mayoral election held on Sept 11, 2001.  I am thankful that he decided to vote without me on that day... it may well have saved his life.

    "You've got to be an optimist to be a Democrat, and a humorist to stay one" - Will Rogers

    by KnotIookin on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:25:38 AM PDT

    •  err (0+ / 0-)

      this isn't a new district; the old NY-10 and NY-08 swapped numbers. and there is no way a Republican will win this district. a meteor will strike before that happens. That being said, you are right that a Charles Barron victory would be bad news.

      Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:30:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  new in terms of the geographic breakdown (0+ / 0-)

        and you shouldnt be to sure the republican wont win....  the newly added voters are comprised of a lot of glasnost Russians... or as I call them REAGAN Russians and they are changing the political landscape of a once solid progressive democratic area to a conservative republican one....  

        an example is STOROBIN...  there was a time he could never have won his state race but he did win...  and his first act after being sworn in was to  offer a bill to overturn the brand new Same Sex marriage law.  (sigh)

        "You've got to be an optimist to be a Democrat, and a humorist to stay one" - Will Rogers

        by KnotIookin on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:41:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  uh, I will be sure a Republican won't win (0+ / 0-)

          because it's a deep-blue, majority-black district - even the Joe Cao debacle wouldn't have happened in a district this blue. Just because the district dropped from 85% Obama to 80% Obama or w/e doesn't mean it is suddenly vulnerable to Republican takeover.

          Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:48:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  saple, I sure hope Iam wrong and you are right... (0+ / 0-)

            I am not familiar with the political make up of that end of this district that is alllllllllllllllllllllllllllll the way over in the other end of Bklyn....  I only know what is happening at my end and at my end it is not 'majority black' but fast becoming majority reagan russian and turning turning way to red for my liking

            "You've got to be an optimist to be a Democrat, and a humorist to stay one" - Will Rogers

            by KnotIookin on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:54:59 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well, the district as a whole is majority black (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              slacks, dufffbeer, jncca

              and overwhelmingly Democratic, even if not every single nook and cranny fits that description. idk what else to tell you.

              Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

              by sapelcovits on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:56:19 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  what if (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                slacks

                Barron wins the Dem primary...Jeffries is already on the WFP line.  Would it be possible to split so much the R wins?  I guess if it's an 80% Obama district, then it's going to be hard for the R to get to 33%.

                NY-22 (old and new)

                by elucas730 on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:04:29 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  exactly (0+ / 0-)

                  there is probably a greater chance of us dying from some spontaneous disaster right now than there is of that happening.

                  Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                  by sapelcovits on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:06:12 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  oh, and actually (0+ / 0-)

                    according to the NYTimes, it's an 85% Obama district after redistricting (down from 91%) - to put that in perspective, Obama got "only" 74% in LA-02, where Cao won by just a few points (and that was with lower turnout, mind you).

                    Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                    by sapelcovits on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:09:41 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

              •  The district is only one quarter white (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sapelcovits

                and a lot of the white population are gentrifiers in Fort Greene and Bed Stuy. There's absolutely no way this district could ever be won by a Republican even if the Dem got literally zero votes in Howard Beach, Manhattan Beach, Seagate etc.

                26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                by okiedem on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:11:19 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  before they added the bay, most of Brighton and (0+ / 0-)

                the OP Hi Rises to this district...not exactly what I would call a nook or a cranny.  Democrats would be extremely foolish to discount the growing political clout of the Reagan Russians who comprise much of these areas but as I said I am sure hoping you are the one who is right,  not me  :)

                "You've got to be an optimist to be a Democrat, and a humorist to stay one" - Will Rogers

                by KnotIookin on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:13:03 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  well, you don't have to take my word for it (0+ / 0-)

                  okiedem says it even better above.

                  Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                  by sapelcovits on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:19:47 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  if I may, I am going to take no ones WORD for it.. (0+ / 0-)

                    as a 3rd generation resident of this area I am going to rely on what I can see happening... but still HOPE I am wrong (for now) and you guys are right.   :)

                    "You've got to be an optimist to be a Democrat, and a humorist to stay one" - Will Rogers

                    by KnotIookin on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 11:08:51 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

    •  NY-8. meant to add that I have not seen that AD... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dufffbeer

      nor have I received any of the mailers you posted links to BUT I have been inundated with ROBOCALLS asking me to vote for Hakim Jeffries - I have gotten robo-calls in English, Hebrew and Spanish.

      "You've got to be an optimist to be a Democrat, and a humorist to stay one" - Will Rogers

      by KnotIookin on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:36:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  We Ask America have Obama up 4 in CO (0+ / 0-)

    And Romney up 5 in VA. The latter would be quite the departure from what we've been seeing.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:33:42 AM PDT

    •  question (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag

      has WAA ever not had a Republican tilt? everyone gives them a lot of credit for calling Bob Dold!'s win in IL-10 2010, but WAA had Dold up 50-39 (he won 52-48).

      Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:37:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  And they have Allen up 9 over Kaine (6+ / 0-)

      I'll buy the Colorado numbers as somewhat plausible, but the Virginia ones are not.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:43:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I really can't see Kaine losing unless (0+ / 0-)

        Obama loses the state badly. If he wins, I think it's all but certain Kaine wins, but even if Obama loses by three, shouldn't that give him a base? Virginia isn't that blue, but it's getting less and less white, and George Allen is...George Allen.

        Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

        by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:50:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, right (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, itskevin

        If that's not a tipoff of a bogus poll and pollster, I don't know what is.

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:54:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  idk if the pollster is "bogus" (0+ / 0-)

          per se. but they do seem to have a very strong Republican tilt. and I don't mean a house effect, which IIRC is measured relative to the polling average but doesn't necessarily refer to a poll's accuracy - I mean that in the past, their polls seem to have consistently given the Republicans better news than they actually received on election night.

          Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:58:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  They are bogus, period (0+ / 0-)

            Not only do they have Allen up 9, but it's 44-35.  It would be bad enough if it were, say, 50-41.  But to have Kaine at 35 is way beyond any notion of reality.  If you were going to purposely make up fake numbers and wanted people to believe them, you wouldn't put Kaine way down at 35.

            These are Roanoke College/CNU-quality numbers, which is to say, the poll is bogus, as is the pollster.

            WAA is pretty much Rasmussen cloned.  They release a few that clearly are in the right ballpark, simultaneously with a few that clearly are absurd.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:28:14 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Maybe Roanoke did the fieldwork (0+ / 0-)

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:20:32 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I have a feeling (0+ / 0-)

      we're going to start to see a "flooding of the zone" by these R-leaning pollsters, plus Rasmussen. They'll want to help shift the narrative and provide favorable feeds for polling aggregators (like RCP) and forecast models (like 538).

      It's too bad we don't have more on our side. Of course, that isn't to say I want rigged polls, just that I want more "real" polls to balance out the nonsense.

  •  Stu Rothenberg slams Garagiola and Kelly (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mark27

    This is amusing but seems more than a bit gratuitous:

    In their interviews with me and my colleagues, Maryland state Sen. Rob Garagiola (D) and Arizona special election nominee Jesse Kelly (R) stood out for being the most arrogant, least likable candidates of the cycle.

    Garagiola, 39, who lost to Delaney in his primary and remains my own state Senator, behaved as if he were already the Democratic nominee when I interviewed him in late January. He acted as if he were Tom Cruise doing an exaggerated imitation of himself in the movie “Cocktail.” Calling him cocky simply doesn’t capture the ego he displayed.

    Kelly, 31, a former Marine who has now narrowly lost two Congressional elections in Arizona, had one of the worst interviews in which I have participated. Acting as if I were the enemy, he refused to talk about what he learned from his 2010 Congressional bid, insisting again and again, “This campaign is 100 percent on the issues looking forward and there is no looking back.”

    Other than that, I didn’t get much more than platitudes and talking points. If he was trying to be likable, I couldn’t see it.

    http://www.rollcall.com/...

    •  Isn't Stuey a sweetheart? (7+ / 0-)

      His pettiness is exceeded only by his exaggerated sense of self-importance.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 07:56:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You know, I agree re Stu, but still defend him... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000

        ...on this one.

        It may seem petty, but if you're a candidate bothering to interview with Rothenberg, you have to put your best foot forward.  If you don't care what Stu says or thinks, and you don't think he matters, then don't bother to interview with him.  Really, I think meetings with these campaign journalists is nonessential, I doubt a candidate loses much even though I realize it's considered part of "making the rounds."  But if you're going to do the interview, act like it matters and try to come off well.  If you don't, then it really does say something bad about you.

        So I think what Stu says about them in-person has value here.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:25:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  In all fairness, Stu's talking from hindsight (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000

      His interview with Rob Garagiola was conducted in late January, when he still looked like a favorite for both the nomination and general election.  That was before John Delaney's media and mail campaign heated up (to which Garagiola mostly responded negatively and not very effectively), and before Delaney started picking up lots of heavyweight endorsements (Bill Clinton, Donna Edwards, Washington Post, etc.)  Had the next couple of months gone differently Garagiola's seeming self-confidence might not look so off-base.

      Delaney, for his part, gets a positive paragraph from Stu in the same article.

      36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:39:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PPP: Obama up 47-44 in Ohio (5+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:07:05 AM PDT

    •  Obama has underwater approval ratings (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, itskevin

      but Romney has miserable favorable ratings.

      http://t.co/...

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:10:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not bad (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      I was expecting a little worse, but this is pretty decent for Ohio.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:13:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Job approval is a big problem (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, Davidsfr, itskevin

        We're at a stage now, barely 4 months out, when job approval starts to matter more and I don't like 44-51 at all.  I think Obama needs to be closer to break-even than that to win a closely-divided battleground like Ohio.

        PPP always has exaggeratedly bad favorables for candidates, so I don't take that 35-54 for Romney to the bank.  But PPP's job approvals usually are closer to what looks like the truth, and certainly close to the totality of polling on Obama job approvals.

        I'm interested in seeing the NBC/Marist poll later this week, and I'm hoping Q-poll comes out with another Ohio effort soon.

        As far as the 47-44 topline goes, that's consistent with what was reported on private polling a month or two ago.  But again, I want to see more fresh data, not just PPP.

        Oh, and I get to toot my horn, I had said yesterday that I was betting Obama would be +3 in Ohio in PPP!

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:21:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Job approval (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, askew

          Usually I would agree but I think we are in unchartered waters here with Romney's favorables.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:35:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's the very PPP data point I doubt (0+ / 0-)

            One thing I've always doubted in PPP state polls is their favorables for people of both parties, which are always worse than the totality of polling says.

            But their Obama job approvals, as a rule, seem to track the totality of polling.

            So I'm inclined to give more weight to 44-51 job approval than to Romney being 35-54 unfavorable.

            Now, that's why I want to see more polls.  I've learned from following polling closely that so many pollsters can have same or very similar ballot test results with wildly different results in other questions and in internals.  So I won't be surprised if Marist says Obama 47-44, but with 47-48 job approval and Romney at, say, 40-45 favorables.  I'm making that up, but it's to make my point about what I've gotten used to seeing in polling.

            All this is to say that I'm mildly discouraged by this PPP poll even though the ballot test looks right, but I'm anxious to see what others have to say before drawing any judgement about Obama's job approval.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 10:12:34 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  One reason (0+ / 0-)

          Southeastern Ohio.

      •  It was either going to be this or (0+ / 0-)

        a flat-out tie in Ohio. Yesterday we learned Obama would lose 4 points off his previous margins in two states and 7 off another. His previous margin in OH was 7.

    •  Undecideds have no use for either man (0+ / 0-)

      http://t.co/...

      Overwhelmingly disapprove of one, and overwhelmingly dilslike the other.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:14:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Thought it would be (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      Tom makes a big deal of the drop with whites but fails to mention the decline is from an overperformance in the previous poll. This is a fall back to a 2008 white vote share hence the lead is almost identical to the margin he carried the state.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 08:19:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  OK we cleared that hurdle now the question (0+ / 0-)

      is Obama down 7 points from the previous MA poll or OR poll? I still say OR makes sense given the big drop with indies, which seems implausible but will probably result in a 5-point lead for Obama there in this poll.

    •  Completely Up For Grabs Based On That Writeup..... (0+ / 0-)

      .....all comes down to who emerges with a less battered reputation in the fall.  A complete race to the bottom.

  •  I want to brag today (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, R30A, fearlessfred14

    because I made my first two political contributions ever--to Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown. They weren't much (10 bucks each), but even if you're a college student with a very small debit card account (like me), I urge you to donate just a few bucks to whichever candidate you like!

    NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

    by nycyoungin on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 10:31:48 AM PDT

  •  MO-Sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone

    The Brunner Poll appears to be an outlier.  In fact, he has released several sets of numbers, and all of them deviate from the rest of the numbers so far released.  

    Here is an analysis comparing him with the PPP polls done in the last year.  

    http://mosenaterace.blogspot.com/...

    There was a Rasmussen poll as well.  It would not change this picture much: Brunner's numbers just look utterly UNRELIABLE.  

    The robb'd that smiles steals something from the thief. -- Shakespeare

    by not2plato on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 01:10:43 PM PDT

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