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Leading Off:

NY-27: My jaw just hinged open and didn't want to shut after I read this. Major, major props to Adama Brown for this find about Republican Chris Collins, running against Democratic Rep. Kathy Hochul in New York's 27th Congressional District:

The healthcare reforms Collins said he would push would be tort reform and open up competition in insurance by allowing policies across state lines.

Collins also argued that modern healthcare is expensive for a reason.

"People now don't die from prostate cancer, breast cancer and some of the other things," Collins said. "The fact of the matter is, our healthcare today is so much better,  we're living so much longer, because of innovations in drug development, surgical procedures, stents, implantable cardiac defibrillators, neural stimulators—they didn't exist 10 years ago. The increase in cost is not because doctors are making a lot more money. It's what you can get for healthcare, extending your life and curing diseases."

As Brown points out, prostate cancer kills almost 30,000 men a year (PDF) in the United States, while breast cancer kills nearly 40,000 women each year (PDF). I am absolutely dumbfounded. But I'm also a bit troubled by the fact that this interview was published on June 24, but neither the Hochul campaign nor the DCCC spotted Collins' remarks until after Brown (who isn't paid to do this sort of thing) discovered them and published his piece a week later. Hochul's eventual response was also very ineffectual:
"Chris Collins has demonstrated a stunning lack of sensitivity by saying, 'people now don't die from prostate cancer, breast cancer, and some of the other things.' Tragically, nearly 70,000 people will die this year from these two types of cancer alone.  We can disagree about public policy without making these kinds of outrageous and offensive statements."
That's it. (And I can't even link to the press release on her website because it's just a splash page.) What's more, Hochul's press release failed to even cite a source or provide a link, and didn't quote Collins' statement in full—an error which opened the door for the publisher of the original interview, Howard Owens of The Batavian, to accuse Hochul of "rip[ing] this quote out of context." Owens went too far, though, in insisting that Collins "clearly... misspoke." If Collins in fact misspoke, he could have said so—but in response, Collins did not admit to any sort of misspeaking. So the onus is still on him to explain himself.

Meanwhile, I'm left wondering what the D-Trip is up to. They should be doing the dirty work here, tying these remarks to other outrageous things Collins has said in the past—like when he called state Assembly Speaker Shelly Silver, a Jew, the "anti-Christ" and likened him to Hitler, or when he allegedly told a woman attending a crowded gubernatorial address: "I'm sure if you offer someone a lap dance you can find a place to sit." So far as I know, though, no such press release has gone out.

These kinds of blunders, like the one Collins made, offer rare golden opportunities to define your opponent as unacceptable and out-of-touch. I figured Democrats would instantly pounce and put Collins on the defensive. But it looks like this opportunity is being fumbled away, and I cannot understand why.

2Q Fundraising:

FL-22: So it begins: the flood of second-quarter fundraising numbers, that is. Former West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel once again had a huge haul, pulling in $400K. No word on her cash-on-hand, though. I'll be curious to see what Kristin Jacobs, her Democratic primary opponent, raises, as well as Adam Hasner, the GOPer waiting in the wings for the winner of the Frankel-Jacobs contest.

PA-03: Missa Eaton (D): $84K raised

Senate:

HI-Sen: Rep. Mazie Hirono is touting a two-week-old survey from her pollster, the Benenson Strategy Group, which shows her up 53-38 over ex-Rep. Ed Case in the Democratic primary. That's very similar to the last Benenson poll we saw all the way back in November, which had Hirono leading 54-36. As before, the Hirono campaign did not release general election matchups.

MT-Sen: We'd previously mentioned that the Montana state Democratic party was getting a big check from the DSCC to do a $400K ad buy (since the state party can apparently lock in lower rates than the DSCC)—gigantic by Montana standards. The Montana Dems recently swapped in a new ad for the remaining days of the buy, which runs through July 9; this one goes after Denny Rehberg for voting for tax breaks for millionaires.

Meanwhile, it looks like the pro-Dem Patriot Majority USA is spending another $88K against Rehberg. Interestingly, though, the ad—in which an Iraq vet attacks Rehberg for voting against money for prosthetic research and aid for wounded vets—closes with a disclaimer saying that VoteVets, not Patriot Majority, is responsible for the spot. (David Jarman & David Nir)

NE-Sen: The Nebraska Democratic Party is also getting in on the ad-buying act (though there's no word on whether they're being underwritten by the DSCC this time, as in Montana). The state party is out with an ad hitting Deb Fischer for signing on to Grover Norquist's anti-tax pledge. No word on the size of the buy, though probably most notable is the fact that the state party hasn't given up on Bob Kerrey. (David Jarman & David Nir)

OH-Sen: Republican Josh Mandel, the alleged treasurer of the state of Ohio, has reportedly made a $4 million television ad reservation for this fall. You'll recall that the DSCC recently reserved over $5 mil in TV time as well.

TX-Sen: It seems a bit odd that so few members of Texas's congressional delegation have endorsed in the Senate GOP runoff. On Monday, Rep. Michael Burgess became just the second to do so, along with Ron Paul; they're both backing Ted Cruz. One unnamed GOP operative suggests people are feeling "burned" after taking sides in the last big Republican primary fight in Texas: the 2010 gubernatorial battle between Gov. Rick Perry and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. I guess you'd only feel burned, though, if you backed KBH! Wikipedia actually has a list, and funny enough, Burgess actually supported Hutchison.

WV-Sen: Whoa. I'm not sure I've heard a crazier, more over-the-top voice-over than the serial killer/megalomaniac Bond Villain/evil arch-wizard voice that recites this roll call of the "Gang of Four" supposedly anti-coal figures, as produced by Republican John Raese's fevered mind. I say "fevered" because, love him or hate him, it's pretty damn hard to paint Dem Sen. Joe Manchin as anti-coal. (The other three horsemen of the coal-pocalypse: EPA administrator Lisa Jackson, United Mine Workers president Cecil Roberts, and, of course, Barack Obama.) Is Raese's polling really telling him that this is a weakness for Manchin?

Gubernatorial:

IN-Gov: Evidently, the RGA must not think it has the Indiana governor's race in the bag, seeing as how they recently donated a cool $1 million directly to Republican Rep. Mike Pence's gubernatorial campaign. Second quarter fundraising reports are not due in the Hoosier State until July 16, but candidates are required to disclose any donations over $10,000 within a week of receiving them. That gives us a partial sense of how fundraising has been going: In large donations over the last three months, Pence has pulled in $1.7 million in total, while Democrat John Gregg has raised over $800K. So as you can see, without that RGA infusion, Gregg would have led Pence among big donors. (The DGA has not contributed to Gregg's campaign.)

House:

CA-30: Redistricting Partners has done a helpful slice-and-dice of the precinct-level results in the Top 2 primary in the 30th, which, as expected, saw the resolution of the Battle of the -ermans (Brad Sherman and Howard Berman) get deferred to November. They find that Latino voters broke heavily for Sherman, while Jewish voters broke heavily for Berman. Sherman won more narrowly among Asians, while Sherman finished 2nd among Republicans (after GOPer Mark Reed). On the balance, that was enough to propel Sherman to a 41-31 victory over Berman in the first round. (David Jarman)

IL-08: Just when you didn't think it was possible, GOP freshman Joe Walsh has reached a new low. Listen to him describe his Democratic opponent, Tammy Duckworth, at a recent town hall:

"Understand something about John McCain. His political advisers, day after day, had to take him and almost throw him against a wall and hit him against the head and say, "Senator, you have to let people know you served! You have to talk about what you did!" He didn't want to do it, wouldn't do it. Day after day they had to convince him. Finally, he talked a little bit about it, but it was very uncomfortable for him. That's what's so noble about our heroes. Now I'm running against a woman who, my God, that's all she talks about. Our true heroes, it's the last thing in the world they talk about. That's why we're so indebted and in awe of what they've done."
FL-26: This is amusing: Rep. David Rivera, whose case of cooties is so serious that virtually none of his fellow Republicans want to breathe the same air as him, is now acting like he's too good for Mitt Romney! Rivera says that because of Romney's stance on immigration, he won't act as a surrogate for the presumptive GOP nominee. How terrible for Mitt! I'm sure he's inconsolable about this news.

NJ-05: After Rep. Steve Rothman's loss to fellow Rep. Bill Pascrell in the NJ-09 Democratic primary, we'd dreamed up a fantasy scenario whereby Adam Gussen would step aside in NJ-05 and Dems would appoint Rothman as a replacement candidate to take on Rep. Scott Garrett. Of course, that was beyond unlikely, since Rothman chose not run in the 5th in the first place. But now this late-nite sports call-in radio-type pipe dream definitely won't happen, since Rothman says in a new interview that he's done running for office: "I'm not going to try again. This is the end. I know the cost and I don't want to pay it any more."

NC-08: So of course Rep. Larry Kissell, always a wobbly vote at best and now trying to win re-election in a much redder district, is doing everything in his power to distance himself from the Democratic Party. Last week, he voted to holder Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt, and now he says he won't endorse Obama, may not attend the Democratic convention (even though it's taking place right next door to his district), and will vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

It's that last bit which makes me wonder about his political acumen, though. Yes, Kissell voted against the ACA when it first passed Congress, but in January of 2011, when Republicans took back control of the House, one of the first roll calls they scheduled was a vote on repeal. And at the time, Kissell voted against repeal, saying it was time "to look forward and work to make things better." If he wanted to repeal the ACA, he could have voted in favor of doing so a year-and-a-half ago. So how exactly is he going to sell this flip-flop now?

Over on the GOP side, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's YG Action Fund is spending another $23K on mailers attacking former Iredell County Commissioner (and dentist) Scott Keadle, in an effort to boost one-time congressional aide Richard Hudson in the runoff. That brings the group's total outlay to almost $100K on behalf of Hudson, including expenditures before the primary.

OH-16: A new poll for House Majority PAC and SEIU, from Normington Petts, shows Dem Rep. Betty Sutton with a slight lead over GOP Rep. Jim Renacci, 41-38. Libertarian Jeff Blevins is at 4. That's good news, and it's also pretty similar to the only other survey we've seen of this incumbent-vs.-incumbent race, a Democratic internal conducted all the way back in October which had the contest tied at 45 apiece. It's worth noting that this battle is being fought mostly on Renacci's turf: He currently represents 42% of the redrawn 16th while Sutton represents just 21%. This is also a district McCain won 51-47. If Renacci has any contrary polling, we haven't seen it.

TX-33: State Rep. Marc Veasey continues to roll up endorsements as he heads to the Democratic runoff against ex-state Rep. Domingo Garcia. The latest is from the Congressional Black Caucus PAC. Veasey is African-American, but interestingly, Rep. E.B. Johnson says candidates backed by the CBC "do not necessarily have to be African-American but rather they simply have to demonstrate that they are the best person to represent the interests of our community." I'd be curious to see a list of their recent endorsements, but they don't seem to have one on their website.

WA-01: State Sen. (and National Guard member) Steve Hobbs has tried to stake out the manly-man segment in the Dem primary in the 1st, and over the weekend he received a couple endorsements that should help him make that case: He got the backing of the national Fraternal Order of Police and the Washington State Council of Fire Fighters. (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

Dark Money: OpenSecrets identifies a serious disclosure loophole when it comes to super PACs:

Any super PAC choosing to submit its reports to the FEC on a quarterly schedule must file a pre-election report detailing its finances—including donors' names—before a primary in which it is active. But then there's a black hole—a period of 20 days before the primary election, during which the group can take in and spend money without disclosing its donors until the next quarterly filing.

In other words, by timing their expenditures just right in the races on which they focused, these super PACs are able to keep their donors under the radar until after the primaries. The public will learn who the contributors were on July 15.

Nine such super PACs spent $1.3 million in this manner during the second quarter, playing in primaries while hiding their donors. Here's just one example:
The spending patterns of the Conservatives Acting Together PAC, or CATPAC, demonstrate the loophole. The super PAC filed a pre-primary report on May 16 disclosing all donors and expenditures from April 5 to May 9. CATPAC reported having received just $20,500 in contributions, and that it was down to less than $25 cash on hand.

Yet the day after its report, CATPAC made a nearly $100,000 radio buy supporting Michael Williams' bid for the GOP nomination in Texas' 25th congressional district.

Demographics: Could a land developer's marketing decisions be responsible for tipping the nearly 50-50 political balance in Florida? Adam Smith has an interesting man-on-the-street piece about Osceola County, Florida (south of Orlando and home to part of Disney World), one of the fastest-growing counties in the state and the center of Hispanic growth in the I-4 corridor.

The most interesting detail, though, is the decision by a suburban developer to aggressively market its new subdivisions to Puerto Ricans, both on the island and in the New York area, spurring the huge influx of new Puerto Rican residents. The tough part, it seems, isn't so much about getting the new residents interested in politics or converting them to the Democratic agenda, though, as much as it's about turning their attention away from parochial Puerto Rican issues (the independence vs. commonwealth issues that dominate politics there) and over toward presidential and congressional politics. (David Jarman)

Ohio: PPP shows a positive trend on the gay marriage front in Ohio, but the generic congressional ballot has gotten a bit worse for Democrats. The last time they asked, back in May (PDF), Dems led 45-41. Now it's all tied at 43 apiece.

Rhode Island: And then there were two. Rhode Island's filing deadline has come and gone, and you can find complete candidate lists at the link. That leaves just Delaware and Louisiana as states where the filing deadline is still open.

SCF: Sen. Jim DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund, which has raised and spent a legit amount over the last few years in an effort to elect ultra-conservatives to Congress, is morphing into a super PAC so that the group can seek unlimited donations from big fish. That means that DeMint has to formally sever ties with the organization because specific rules limit the role elected officials can play in super PACs, but the restrictions are pretty minimal. And most of the group's work has been carried out by DeMint operatives anyway, so really this just means DeMint will become even more of a pain in the ass for the rest of the Republican caucus.

SEIU: The SEIU is throwing down for paid staffers in a bunch of races: WI-Sen, NV-Sen, OH-Sen, NV-04, CO-06, and US-Pres, for some $210K in total.

Site News: I'm very pleased to announce our first Featured Writer at Daily Kos Elections: dreaminonempty, a longtime Kossack whose excellent in-depth examinations of polling you may have already encountered on the sidebar. Dreamin's stand-alone work, which includes a lot of deep dives into the Daily Kos/SEIU raw polling data, will now appear on the Elections front page. Please give him a hearty welcome!

Redistricting Roundup:

OH Redistricting: Here's some good news: It looks like there will be enough signatures to get a proposed constitutional amendment on Ohio's November ballot to create a California-style independent redistricting commission for the state. The commission would have four Dems, four GOPers, and four independents, and would have authority over both congressional and legislative redistricting. (Currently the state legislature handles congressional redistricting, while a commission of statewide elected officials does legislative redistricting.)

We Are Ohio, the main force behind the 2011 referendum that preserved collective bargaining rights, is supporting the measure, while the state's Republicans—obviously unwilling to give up their power, and mindful of the radical changes wrought by California's commission—are opposed. Interestingly, if it passes, the commission will immediately re-draw lines for the 2014 elections (see section 10). (David Jarman & David Nir)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Larry Kissel will go the way of Lincoln Davis (5+ / 0-)

    for trying to be a Republican lite.  The Dems in Davis's district refused to lift a finger when he needed them most.  Might as well have a real Repub than be betrayed by a guy with a D by his name, but votes R.  Now, TN-4 has a teabagging Repub and Davis is out of a job.

    Kissell pisses me off. When he needed Dems to get elected, we were there for him.  What a cowardly opportunist he is.

  •  Weekly unemployment claims dropped to 374 000, (11+ / 0-)

    ADP estimates that the US gained 176k private-sector jobs in May.

    The ADP figure hasn't been very accurate, though.

  •  WSJ Editorial board on some of the issues (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, Amber6541, distantcousin

    with contradictions that the Romney campaign has:
    http://online.wsj.com/...

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 05:43:08 AM PDT

  •  Obama to start bus tour in Ohio with a bang (8+ / 0-)

    where he will announce that he is filing a WTO complaint against China for putting duties on American-made cars:
    http://www.toledoblade.com/...

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 05:56:14 AM PDT

  •  San Diego fireworks glitch and go off all at once (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, IndianaProgressive

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 06:00:28 AM PDT

  •  Don't be so damned fact-based! (0+ / 0-)
  •  The WSJ editors tear into Romney (6+ / 0-)

    (while it's from a conservative perspective, it's enjoyable nevertheless)

    Editorial here:
    http://online.wsj.com/...

    Analysis from First Read here:
    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/...

    Including Romney's John Kerry photo-op:

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 07:07:33 AM PDT

    •  About that picture... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aquarius40

      You know a lot of thought went into staging it - and they chose to have Ann driving.  Now the message wanted to be pro-woman by saying "Look I let Ann drive" but in the alpha male worshiping world of the GOP I don't know if that will be the message that will come across.  

      I think they should have went for two jet-ski's each in the pic piloting their own.

    •  friendly fire incident (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aquarius40, bythesea

      This is a serious mauling from a Republican-leaning media outlet.

      Increasingly it's looking like the unexpected "it's a tax" ruling by SCOTUS may have handed Romney a
      major dilemma.

      - On the one hand, if he agrees that it's a tax then he has to confess that he raised taxes while Governor of Massachussetts, which he is understandably reluctant to do

      - On the other hand, if he disagrees then he upsets the conservatives in his own party and incurs the wrath of the right-wing commentariat.

      Hopefully this bickering among conservatives will carry on for a while yet!

      •  What he's trying now is... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, stevenaxelrod

        In the state it's a mandate because I say so and no court ever said otherwise, however nationally it's a tax because SCOTUS says so.  So because SCOTUS didn't call the Massachusetts Romneycare a tax he feels he can still say that was a mandate.  

        They're trying to box Pres Obama in with semantics - if he thinks it's a mandate than he's pushing an unconstitutional program because SCOTUS said it would be unconstitutional under commerce clause.  So either Pres Obama needs to admit he's pushing an unconstitutional bill or he raised taxes - "come on MSM please ask him this trick question we're trying to set up."

        I might be biased, but I think all this makes him sound weaselly.

      •  Not to defend Mitt on this, (0+ / 0-)

        but it's the party that chose him. And they obviously seem willing to rail against a national tax on freeloaders, while supporting the dude who passed it, and advocated for it like no other, on the state level.

        So the party is essentially as full of contradictions as their standard bearer.

  •  Is Collins trying to suggest (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    snazzzybird, historys mysteries

    We now have cured death from disease? Wow.. I bet my doctor missed the memo. Well, it's good to know we'll all live forever with no need for doctors. Instead the only thing that'll kill us is being worked to death when vanMittens restores our future to the good old days of one Charles Dickens. Be sure to get your young children into a decent apprenticeship program early like something high tech..shoveling bird shit out of cuckoo clocks.

  •  MO-Sen: New Ad from Todd Akin (0+ / 0-)

    The robb'd that smiles steals something from the thief. -- Shakespeare

    by not2plato on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 07:14:35 AM PDT

  •  Chris Collins=nitwit (0+ / 0-)

    Stick to what you know, dipshit. I find it both amusing and frustrating when nonphysicians start bloviating about medicine, and that includes both sides of the aisle, although by and large the GOP is much worse at spouting nonsense.

    Just another day in Oceania.

    by drshatterhand on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 07:16:17 AM PDT

  •  Top ad markets of the week (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, stevenaxelrod
    1. Colorado Springs, CO (Obama 950, Romney 900, AFP 250, Priorities 200)
    2. Orlando, FL (Romney 985, Obama 700, AFP 150, Priorities 150)
    3. Tampa, FL (Romney 950, Obama 580, AFP 215, Priorities 200)
    4. Richmond, VA (Obama 775, Romney 690, Priorities 250, AFP 200)
    5. Roanoke, VA (Obama 830, Romney 720, AFP 350)
    6. Reno, NV (Obama 850, Romney 715, AFP 150)
    7. Grand Junction, CO (Obama 775, Romney 550, AFP 350)
    8. Denver, CO (Obama 750, Romney 650, Priorities 40, AFP 125)
    9. Columbus, OH (Obama 660, Romney 530, Priorities 360, AFP 100)
    10. Cleveland, OH (Obama 765, Romney 580, AFP 125, Priorities 125)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 07:20:27 AM PDT

  •  BECAUSE WE ARE NOT PLAYING WORD GAMES (0+ / 0-)

    we kick the GOP asses because we are correct and we are smarter ---   to take advantage of this "PEOPLE DON'T DIE..."  quote would just be a word game.

    OBVIOUSLY what was meant that MANY PEOPLE WHO WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE DIED live a lot longer with massivly expensive medical care, driving up the price.

    WE ARE STILL RIGHT but to take advantage of this is of similar and equal cheating as when THEY quoted Obama saying that "THE PRIVATE SECTOR IS DOING ALRIGHT" when he OBVIOUSLY meant, COMPARED TO THE GOVT SECTOR.

    We should win, but let us win with our ideas and thoughts, not cheap wordgames.

  •  Hochul's eventual response was very ineffectual (0+ / 0-)

    Given her craven vote in favor of the GOP's contempt resolution on Holder, an ineffectual—and tardy—response to Collins was to be expected. She undoubtedly doesn't want to alienate the Republican voters she's confident of winning to her side.

  •  Prostate cancer survivor (6+ / 0-)

    Men that don't die of prostate cancer are men that have contracted it, found out they had it through screening tests and then took advantage of the myriad treatments for it that are available.  I'm a prostate cancer survivor and I wouldn't be here today typing this had I not found out through a PSA blood test that "looked suspicios" and then I had a biopsy that ultimately found the cancer.  The fact that there are new and more advanced technologies for treating this cancer is NOT the reason more people are surviving it.  The true reason is because of the ability people have (mostly through their insurance plans) to have the necessary testing to discover it.

    This guy needs to be taken "out back" and given some attitude adjustment.

    I'm a member of a prostate cancer survivor's group and to the man, this is our belief.  Yes, techniques like "robot-assisted" prostatectomies are wonderful (it's what I had) and make recovery far easier and shorter.  But, again, this is not why more men are survivors.  You can't survive something you don't know you have...it's as simple as that.  Kudos for ACA and the provision for this kind of testing.  

    The truth is sometimes very inconvenient.

    by commonsensically on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 07:22:35 AM PDT

  •  No Elephant Tracks in My Butter! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    historys mysteries

    "People now don't die from prostate cancer, breast cancer and some of the other things,"
    _______

    I didn't... so I guess it's true.

    "The skeleton in the closet is coming home to roost!" Tom Stoppard

    by Apotropoxy on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 07:22:50 AM PDT

  •  WISTMSN? (3+ / 0-)

    I originally was going to call this a WATN, but since he's still in Congress, I think it should be filed under "What Is Their Mental State Now?"

    Behold, Thad McCotter's TV pilot:

    "Bumper Sticker: Made On Motown" starred McCotter hosting a crude variety show cast with characters bearing the nicknames of his congressional staffers and his brother. They take pot shots about McCotter's ill-fated bid for the White House while spewing banter about drinking, sex, race, flatulence, puking and women's anatomy.
    Link

    27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

    by bumiputera on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 07:24:52 AM PDT

  •  Mitt Romney flip flops on (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, askew, Christopher Walker

    John Roberts as a model SCOTUS justice.

    I was thinking the other day about potential SCOTUS nominees in the next presidential term. If Romney is elected, I expect one of Bush's appellate court appointees will be selected. There are several who are relatively young who could be chosen. Look for conservatives to demand someone with a long judicial record(like Alito) to avoid another Roberts "mistake".

    I think it's possible Paul Clement could also be selected. He is a former Bush SG who was the losing lawyer in both the ACA and SB1070 cases.  

    If Obama is re-elected, I expect a new short list to include many of Obama's appellate court appointees. There are several who are relatively young and very qualified. And having been confirmed in 2009-2012, they've already been vetted. Similarly to Clement, I think Obama's current SG, Donald Verrilli, could be on the short list too. He is qualified anyway, and I think with the recent wins, he would merit at least being on the list. If anything, he sure seems to know how to write an argument that can win over John Roberts. :)  

    •  I don't think it will be Verrilli... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, askew

      Simply because Kagan took the SG to SCOTUS route.  Also I suspect Ginsburg will be the next to retire and given they made a big deal about having three female justices, I don't think they could then replace RBG with a male, bringing it back down to two women.  

      If Pres Obama is re-elected I think he will replace Breyer probably late in his second term.  

      I think a darkhorse to replace Breyer could be CFPB director  Cordray.

      If Pres Obama somehow got to replace a conservative wing Justice you could expect WW3 in the confirmation process.  Now Kennedy and Scalia are surely not going to retire by choice, but both are on the wrong side of 75yo.  They'll both try to hold out until 2017 should Pres Obama be re-elected. Both would probably retire in Romney's first term otherwise, with RBG and Breyer trying to stick around until 2017 in hopes Romney is a one termer.  

      •  I kind of want to see Pamela Karlan. (0+ / 0-)

        At the risk of sounding like a jerk, I'll say that the thought of a very liberal Jewish lesbian on the Supreme Court making the heads of many on the right explode is tempting. And while I am not qualified in any way to assess her credentials, everything I've read suggests she's an absolutely top notch legal mind.

        If Obama had to replace two justices, one of whom was a conservative, would it be the worst idea to take a page from "The West Wing" and let them pick one (who obviously wasn't like Harriet Miers) and let us one pick one?

        Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

        by bjssp on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 08:07:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  If they got to pick one - it gives them the 5-4 (0+ / 0-)

          lean though.  Now if Pres Obama wanted Karlan in, he could maybe give the GOP a list of moderates that they could choose in return for confirming Karlan.  I don't think there is any chance Karlan could ever get confirmed though.  Godwin Liu is another that the GOP will never let through.  Liu is probably to young anyways, but would have been ideal for the next Dem Pres, which is why the GOP blocked him from the federal bench.  

          •  The only way Liu/Karlan get confirmed (0+ / 0-)

            to SCOTUS would be in some kind of judicial grand bargain, in which Obama renominates a prominent conservative, like Miguel Estrada to the appellate court. I dont agree with the GOP blocking Liu or Caitlin Halligan, but I think have a legitimate anger when it comes to what happened with Estrada.

            And if GOP does gain seats in the Senate, it wouldnt surprise me if we saw some type of grand bargain. Not with Liu or Karlan or Estrada, but perhaps letting GOP senators pick some nominees, in exchange for getting everyone confirmed.

        •  we've already got a liberal Jewish lesbian (0+ / 0-)

          her name is Elana Kagan

          19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

          by jncca on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 10:40:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed, that it wont be Verrilli (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, askew

        Kagan was definitely given SG with an eye on a SCOTUS nomination. I think Clinton nominated to her the appellate court in DC, for the same reason. I dont think that is the same case with Verrilli.

        But my guess is every SG probably gets looked at for a SCOTUS vacancy, and fair or not, Verrilli looks like a winner, and so that puts him on a short list.

        Agree on everything else. Except even if Romney wins, I think Ginsburg retires. She is 79, and there are apparently rumors she wants to retire at age 82, like Justice Brandeis, who she greatly admires. That would mean a retirement in 2015.

    •  In Obama's second term (0+ / 0-)

      we can really only count on a couple Republican senators  accepting his nominees: Graham, Kirk, and Collins. Maybe Alexander or Hatch.

      So the Republican caucus, whether in the majority or not will have a lot more influence on the confirmation vote than his last two nominees. I think they'll demand someone with judicial experience. Merrick Garland or Leah Ward Sears would be palatable to them. Plus I think this applies only to a Ginsburg or Breyer retirement. If there's a vacancy on the conservative side of the court, expect all hell to break loose.

      27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

      by bumiputera on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 08:04:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think it's possible there will be more than that (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera

        Many of Obama's appellate nominees were confirmed unanimously, or by lopsided margins, even in the gridlock of 2009-2011.

        Not saying that will happen again if they are nominated to SCOTUS, but I think confirmation could be easier assuming no other problems arise with their nominations.

        •  Then who was being blocked? (0+ / 0-)

          Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

          by bjssp on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 08:46:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Goodwin Liu and Caitlin Halligan (0+ / 0-)

            They are both very young, Liu was in his 30s when he was nominated. I think GOP feared them because they could be elevated to SCOTUS at young age, or sit on the appellate court of like 30+ years. I believe Dems felt the same way in blocking Miguel Estrada.

            •  Yes, but...I could be wrong here, but I think I (0+ / 0-)

              remember hearing about a lot of judicial appointments blocked. Am I mixing up that stuff and other governmental appointments, like those with the Treasury Department?

              Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

              by bjssp on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 09:01:52 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think some district court nominees (0+ / 0-)

                were filibustered too.

                I think the main problem has been the foot dragging on these nominations. Most are not controversial, and they get confirmed easily, when put up for a vote. But that takes months.

        •  I really do think the Supreme Court is the main (0+ / 0-)

          battleground. Voters don't care about lower courts, but Senate conservatives know that a Supreme confirmation is where they can get maximum exposure.

          27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

          by bumiputera on Fri Jul 06, 2012 at 05:23:37 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I'd be happy with Sears (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera

        I recall liberals had a few concerns with her based on vague notions that she might not be so liberal on some issues.  But "vague" at worst is the operative description, as a rule she seems a garden variety liberal.  And she'd be the first black woman on SCOTUS, another huge societal "first."

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 08:20:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  More hopeful now on Friday BLS reports (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    historys mysteries, KingofSpades

    I'm perhaps setting myself up for a big letdown, but this week's ADP, Challenger & Gray, and jobless claims reports all point in the same direction, toward outperformance of expectations in the jobs report.

    I'm hopeful we at least get back headed in the right direction.  And I'm hopeful the unemployment rate ticks back down to 8.1 as part of the mix.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 07:39:09 AM PDT

  •  re: your lead story (ny-27) & your (0+ / 0-)

    bewilderment at the lack of response from d's to the outrageous remarks/comments from the r's nutcase-candidate . . .

    jon stewart had a former r operative on his show (hawking a book he had written) & i can't remember the guy's name but he was with the nixon wh (i believe) & he said he was flabergasted at the d's continually letting the r's use them (us) as doormats to wipe the shit off their shoes.

    it is one of the great ironies (to me) that liberals are naturally open-minded about new ideas & tolerant of other's perspectives, often to the point of allowing those same others to completely hijack the truth while liberals just sit back & say, "well, yes, you do have a point there" -- !!! -- i guess i'm not that liberal b/c i'm a lot less tolerant of ignorance & propaganda -- & don't hesitant to call someone out when they're practicing it.

  •  GOP HCR mandate tax attack is foolish (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Aquarius40, itskevin, KingofSpades

    In fact, most of the general public already always thought the HCR law raised taxes to pay for health care for poor people.  And in fact, they were right.  The law includes a patchwork quilt of tax hikes, such as the famed tanning tax and the reduction of the maximum allowed for health care flexible spending accounts, among other things.

    All that being the case, the GOP gets no marginal advantage from touting the individual mandate as a tax.

    They really need to just move on and let this go, or health care will just bite their Presidential nominee in his ass and cost him votes.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 07:42:40 AM PDT

    •  I think there is a distinction up to a certain (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A

      point, but this doesn't matter, as it's small and not something the public is likely to care about nor even fully comprehend.

      It's actually kind of amazing how much Romney appears to be self-destructing over this, without the Obama camp doing all that much. I would have thought that OFA, et al would be pounding on him far more than it has over things like his op/ed advocating the mandate as a national model. Instead, they've let it play out almost naturally (by choice?), and it seems to be working.

      Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

      by bjssp on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 07:57:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  ADP: private sector added 176,000 jobs in June (3+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 07:43:59 AM PDT

  •  CA-26: Strickland moves left (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera

    I missed this story from last week, just saw it yesterday. It's very telling about how Strickland is reshaping his image.

    http://blogs.venturacountystar.com/...

    After Democratic leaders in the Legislature and Gov. Jerry Brown agreed to a budget deal that will eliminate the state's Healthy Families Program and transition the 880,000 children covered by it into Medi-Cal, Republicans in Sacramento rose to the program's defense -- with Strickland the first to raise his microphone on the Senate floor to speak out against the proposal.

    "It's a shame the majority party wants to eliminate a program that has been a successful alternative for families and children across California," Strickland said in a statement released by his office. "We need to ensure kids have access to quality healthcare, not transfer them to a program with a history of poor performance."

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 07:44:25 AM PDT

  •  Thanks for covering Collins (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    historys mysteries, Alice Olson

    My mom sent it to me. Her sister was a breast cancer victim and I'm a WNY native. Collins was awful as Erie County Executive. This has apology or devastating ad written all over it. I sent it to a colleague at the DCCC on Tuesday afternoon and was told thanks, they were on it. Haven't seen anything yet.

    I'm proud to serve as Director of Online Programs at the Courage Campaign.

    by Adam Bink on Thu Jul 05, 2012 at 09:30:00 AM PDT

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