I've read mostly kudos over the Obama campaign's ad strategy. Some naysayers. Some even saying he's being "mean."
I won't be focusing mainly on that. I'll be focusing, not on what Obama HAS, but more about what Romney appears to lack.
Ammunition.
I've never run a political campaign, but if I did, I'd like to think that I would compile all of my oppo-research, and then prioritize it. I would take the three or four most potentially powerful angles, and I would use one (probably #2 or #3) very early to set the tone, and to define my opponent, before they can define themselves. I would attack them on their supposed strength, in order to weaken it as much, and as quickly, as possible.
I would then save #1 and #3 for after the convention, so that I could use them when the most voters were paying attention to the election. These could also be reserved for use, if I needed to quickly and efficiently deflect attacks from the other side, earlier on. Or just to retake control of the news-cycle, after being pummeled.
This is similar to chess, where you use your knights, bishops and pawns to gain territory, and position, only later to bring out the big guns, the rooks and queen. Chess players who witness a beginner strutting out their queen too early, will advise them against it.
We can only guess that Bain isn't Obama's queen. But Mitt hasn't shown us ANY force whatsoever. Just pawns, meandering around the board, gaining nothing, but being in the way.
This says one thing about the Obama campaign, but even more about Romney's.
My guess is that the Bain attack ads are only bishops, knights and pawns. They are begin used, simultaneously, to limit Romney's moving space, and to force errors. And, so far, they've worked brilliantly. Pundits have commented on how Obama has put Mitt into a corner, where his only two choices are:
1. Keep stalling on releasing his tax records
2. Release his tax records.
And the punditry has talked about little else since this began. Obama has gotten some much-needed media assists. The WaPo article from June, about Mitt's off-shoring, and the Boston Globe and David Corn's articles this month, about Mitt's Bain lies.
And, almost miraculously, Mitt's fellow Republicans came out in droves over the weekend and urged Romney to get it over with and come clean. This deflects some of the assertions that Obama is being "mean" by requesting Romney's disclosures. For, if even Mitt's friends agree with Obama, how could they charge Obama as being "mean"?
This has all been documented throughout this site in past days and weeks.
What HASN'T been discussed, so far as I've seen, is the Romney's campaign's seeming lack of ammunition in this battle.
For if there ever was a time when you would want an ammunition stock-pile at your disposal, it is when your opponent is driving the narrative, forcing you into corners, causing you to make errors, and controlling the news cycles for weeks on end.
The only other option I can see, besides Romney having nothing on Obama, is that he DOES have something BIG, and wants desperately to save it for October. But this means he's got only one thing. Which leaves Obama the entire battlefield, up until October, to himself. Continually putting Mitt on the defensive, and keeping him in check.
I wonder if Obama's team is as surprised as I am over Team Romney's utter lack of offensive (and defensive) skills and ammunition in this campaign?
Granted, Romney had to battle his colleagues for many months before he faced Obama. But he KNEW very well who his opponent was going to be, should he win the nomination. He's known that since November, 2008. And he STILL isn't prepared.
Think about it. All that money, all that time, and still not prepared.
As far as I can see, Romney's team has three things going for them, each perhaps to give their candidate some breathing room, or even a boost in the polls, JUST FOR BEING THERE. These are the low-hanging fruit:
1. The Olympics
Mitt will be there. Shaking hands, and self-promoting. It will give him some positive press for a little while, and get him out of the fire. But what will Obama do during this time? I urge him to add in some positive, inspiring ads, geared to get his own supporters excited about November. Draw some money, and get some volunteers signed up.
2. The VP pick
This will most definitely roll over any other news going on in the campaign. It will put the breaks on the Bain narrative, at least temporarily. And it will put Romney's personnel skills on the front burner, for pundits and the electorate. I assume Obama is ready for any of the "known" contenders, but Romney may pull a McCain, and surprise us.
3. The Convention
A certain polls-booster for Romney, and it will suck all the oxygen out of the news-cycle air for at least a week or two. But it's been leaked that Romney won't be inviting Sarah Palin. Teabaggers may picket. Ron Paulites will be causing their own problems for Mitt. The odds out there are 10% that it will be a contested convention. This should be worth the price of a point or two in the polls for Romney, being so entertaining for us.
Well, that's all I got.
But Romney's got nothin'