Like many people here, I watch the polls and worry about changes in the national dialog, and wonder about the effects of the economy, and everything else on top of that. Many people here are as active as I am, or even more so, and work hard organizing precincts and GOTV efforts. Some people still are hesitant to do the groundwork, despite their enthusiasm about the elections.
You might say to yourself that your area is already decided for sure, or that there is no chance of making a difference in your precinct. You might say you could never knock on someone’s door without being invited, or that you could never make unsolicited phone calls for getting out the vote. Let me tell you… You can make a big difference no matter where you are, and it is well worth the effort. Or, if you are already with me on this, consider this a validation of your efforts and you can also follow me below the fold for a little back of the envelope estimation of what you can accomplish.
There are two effects of being active in your precinct to identify voters and then get out the vote. First, you get more people to the polls on your side. I estimate that I get between 50 to 200 people to vote per election that otherwise would not have. You may not believe me. I am not going to argue the statistics. I have actually gotten as many as five voters to the polls in the last half hour before closing on election day. I will try to get my wife to present a diary of a more scientific analysis she has of our effects, and yours. For now I just want to be as motivational as I can, and get you to get out more voters. Sometimes they even go and vote in their robe and slippers, because we just did not give up on them after repeated calls, and finally a visit to the door to inform them that the polls have not closed yet, and they could still make a difference. They say in Chicago to vote early and often. In a way, I am, because I vote myself, and then I get as many people as I can to go vote, who otherwise would not have.
The second thing that you can accomplish by being active in your precinct is what I would call the ripple effect. The more activists there are doing the good work, the more activists that join in. Every voter contact is a potential new activist. Seeing that people care and that they are doing something about it is motivating. Multiply my direct effect by 5 and you have a significant difference in a close election. The people you get to vote are also more likely to continue to vote, so it is all good.
Getting voters out everywhere is well worth the effort. It is what Howard Dean called the 50 state strategy. There is not only the top of the ballet to consider, there are local and statewide elections that count on getting good turnout. Boosting voter turnout makes a good precinct into an excellent precinct, where candidates will not have to spend as much money themselves. Turning a bad precinct into a possible precinct gives an ignored area the potential to get noticed and get attention. In a close election (and there have been a lot of them lately) a few hundred votes can be all it takes to make the difference in whether a vote goes to a recount or whether it is not contested. The overall vote count may not be as important as the margin of victory in the swing states, but it does have an effect on the recognition of the legitimacy of a win, so get active and see what you can do. Many areas have good leadership for GOTV and are great to get connected with. If your area has been neglected, it is up to you to take up some of the leadership responsibilities and do what you can. It is not as hard as you might think. Once you get started, the process tends to go where it needs to. Be forewarned that activism is not always met with enthusiastic support. The grass roots have been met with some trepidation and even hostility as being an uncontrolled and potentially power losing force by some of the leadership. Ignore any friction and focus on what is important: Identifying voters and getting them to the polls.
I will keep my nose pasted to the news and watch every indicator of what will happen as many of my fellow Kossacks do as well, but it is where the shoe leather and road meet, that makes the big difference, and I hope to see many more diaries soon, on how to get involved locally, and statistically why it makes a difference. As for now, this is just my 2 cents on the issue.