The purpose of this post is to track and report the combined averages and trends of several leading and credible Electoral Map predictions. National polls are useless in projecting the voting outcome in November. The only thing that determines who will be our next President is the outcomes state by state, which directs outcome in the Electoral College (which is, in my opinion, incredibly outdated, un-democratic, and needs to be replaced with a simple national popular vote).
Data for the combined map will come from Huffington Post, Real Clear Politics, Washington Post, CNN, and the New York Times.
I’ll try to make this a weekly post.
Data below the fold:
|
As
of July 21, 2012 |
|
|
|
|
Solid |
Leans |
|
Leans |
Solid |
270
Need to Win |
Obama |
Obama |
Toss Up |
Romney |
Romney |
Huffington Post |
221 |
35 |
91 |
10 |
181 |
Real Clear Politics |
142 |
79 |
136 |
105 |
76 |
Washington Post |
196 |
41 |
95 |
36 |
170 |
CNN |
196 |
51 |
85 |
47 |
159 |
New York Times |
185 |
32 |
115 |
48 |
158 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
188 |
48 |
104 |
49 |
149 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Percent |
|
|
|
|
|
of Toss Up |
|
|
|
Has |
Needs |
Needed |
|
|
Obama |
236 |
34 |
32.95% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Romney |
198 |
72 |
68.97% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Of course, averages of Electoral Vote counts are in and of themselves meaningless - as they come in blocks by state. But over time I think there will be trends in the averages that will be informative.
Thanks,