For one day, at least, the attention of the community of horserace political junkies is diverted from the November elections, as four states have their primary elections on tap tomorrow night. With some first-tier contests in the queue, pollsters busied themselves this weekend with some final numbers from states like Michigan, Missouri, and Washington.
And while there are some interesting downballot primaries for the Kansas state lege (legislative primaries there are often a bloodbath, due to the GOP schism), alas, there is no polling to be had in the Sunflower State.
On to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-45)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-45)
INDIANA (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (51-35)
WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (54-37)
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
HI-02--D (Merriman River Group for Civil Beat): Tulsi Gabbard 49, Mufi Hannemann 29, Esther Kia'aina 8, Bob Marx 7
HI-02--D (Ward Research for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser): Mufi Hannemann 43, Tulsi Gabbard 33, Bob Marx 8, Esther Kia'aina 7
MI-13--D (EPIC-MRA): Rep. John Conyers 57, Glenn Anderson 17, Shanelle Jackson 7, Bert Johnson 5, John Goci 4
MI-14--D (EPIC-MRA): Rep. Gary Peters 52, Rep. Hansen Clarke 33, Brenda Lawrence 7, Mary Waters 2, Bob Costello 1
MO-GOV--R (SurveyUSA): Dave Spence 42, Bill Randles 15, Fred Sauer 12, John Weiler 3
MO-SEN--R (SurveyUSA): John Brunner 35, Todd Akin 30, Sarah Steelman 25
MO-01 (SurveyUSA): Rep. Lacy Clay (D) 58, Robyn Hamlin (R) 19, Robb Cunningham (L) 6; Rep. Russ Carnahan (D) 56, Hamlin 18, Cunningham 6; Clay 58, Martin Baker (R) 18, Cunningham 7; Carnahan 56, Baker 17, Cunningham 7
MO-01--D (SurveyUSA): Rep. Lacy Clay 56, Rep. Russ Carnahan 35, Candice Britton 2
NC-GOV (Rasmussen): Pat McCrory (R) 46, Walter Dalton (D) 41
WA-GOV (SurveyUSA): Jay Inslee (D) 48, Rob McKenna (R) 45
A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...
Virtually all of Monday's polling deals with either primary elections that are on tap tomorrow (Missouri, Michigan, and Washington), or races that are on tap this Saturday (HI-02).
Interestingly, neither of the races that one might suspect would be the cliffhangers appear to be all that competitive. I am referring, of course, to the pair of incumbent-on-incumbent battles brought forth by creative redistricting on the part of Republicans in Michigan and Missouri. If new data in both of those districts are legit, both of those primaries are currently double-digit affairs, with the campaigns of veterans Gary Peters (MI-14) and Lacy Clay (MO-01) holding healthy leads.
The race that seems the least clear is the one that comes up this Saturday in Hawaii, where we have dueling polls from two pollsters familiar with Island politics. Ward Research still sees a modest edge for former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, while Merriman River sees a late and marked surge for upstart Tulsi Gabbard. With a competitive Democratic Senate primary on tap in paradise, one might suspect that this will not be the final data point to emanate from Hawaii this week.
In other polling news...
- Two polls out over the weekend from Rasmussen test the theory we have about races running in comparable circles. In both cases, the downballot numbers seemed fair, even a bit optimistic for the Democratic candidates. But the numbers are the top of the ballot seem awfully rosy for the GOP. Put it this way: I'd wager that even people on Team Romney do not really believe he is up 16 points in Indiana. But if he's not, and the real margin is closer to 8-10 points, what then do we conclude about the same poll showing a dead heat for the Senate. Could that really mean that Democrat Joe Donnelly is out in front, albeit modestly? The same thing holds true in North Carolina. For the duration of the cycle, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Walter Dalton has run 6-10 points behind the top of the ticket, where Barack Obama has led in as many polls in the state as he has trailed. Now? Rasmussen has them both trailing their GOP counterparts by an identical 5-point margin. Has Obama swooned? Or is the House of Ras a bit off in favor of the GOP (few have had Romney up by that much), meaning that Dalton has moved this race to all square? Given where the critical mass of polling has been in the Tar Heel State, I am skeptical. But it bears watching.
- In Washington, a similar dynamic exists, but to the detriment of the Democrats. SUSA was out over the weekend with their first likely voter sample of the cycle, and at the top of the ticket, it looked awfully optimistic for Barack Obama. After most polls to date have had the president leading in the Evergreen State by 9-13 points, SUSA gave him a 17-point edge. But they also had Jay Inslee out in front by 3 points. If SUSA is a few points to the good for the Democrats, does that mean Inslee is actually down a couple of points?
The beauty here, of course, is that we will not have to wait long to find out? Washington's open primary system means that we will get a halfway-decent early estimate of where the races stand to date (unlike California's open primary, where the GOP turnout was far better than the Democratic turnout, in the past, Washington's numbers have been a little closer to the fairway), and we will get it tomorrow.
- Milestone alert: for one of the few times this entire year, both the Rasmussen and Gallup daily tracking polls gave their lead to the president. Indeed, in an even more rare moment, Rasmussen is actually more optimistic (albeit by a single point) than Gallup as to the president's prospects. How soon will that change? Heh...it may well be different tomorrow.